These Prices are insane!

[Anonymous]

Speaking of heating... I run a window air conditioner in a 10x8 room to maintain a computer temperature of 38 celsius (About 100 degrees) on the raid-0, Video card at 50 C and CPU about 54 C (Motherboard shows about 26 C)

If I turn off the room airconditioner the temperature in the room will increase.

My computer makes a GREAT house heater.. just need the electricity thank you. =)

[Anonymous]

Guys, guys, guys if we keep this up for a few more rounds, the chinese will get flooded in oil, with our heating problems solved with the radiant heat from the computer monitor alone.
I think the question of interest in what we are doing can be answered by just looking at the post totals of the General Forum and the Prototype forum here. General 17462, and Proto 1340. Oh don't forget the billboard reefer string pulled by F-3/F-7/FLP-9/SD-45s etc.. Uncle Irv's "freelance license" is each modelers right to renew and exercise. As the newer modellers gain sophistication and possibly an interest in actual prototype operation, era, and historical accuracy we may graduate to modelling from playing with trains. I for one welcome the interest in the "hobby" whatever level of interest and development. More E-Bay deals to those who want the wrong choices of new enterants to our hobby.
Now for less reading and more building the "Empires" of our minds.
Will

[grandeman]

While I'm concerned (alarmed) at the Walther's retail prices on P2K locos lately, I just won an Ebay auction for a CB&Q GP20, in the box, for $39.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Paul3
Then why would they be advertising brand new F3A-B sets on their own website for only $145?

I do not know. I was just giving you the source of my information. It is entirely likely that it is a misprint. But thats what the add says.

QUOTE:
Let me see if I get this straight. You are comparing a sale price at an LHS to the full MSRP?

No I am not, I was just stating what I paid. The former MSRP for a single AB set is $94.95 Given the new MSRP that I saw. The $165.00 from the flyer, I saw a $70.00 or so (Nearly double) increace in price without any changes to the thing what so ever. Besides, the Proto 1000 was supposed to be the not nearly as pricey no-frills compared to the Proto-2000 and was supposed to stay in continous production. One more promise made broken.

QUOTE:
The hobby is what you make of it. If you want to be a model builder that occasionally runs trains, then go right ahead. I'd rather be a guy that models railroad operations that occasionally builds models. But that's the nice thing about model railroading. Everyone who owns a Thomas the Tank Engine to Tony Koester is a model railroader...it's a big enough hobby for everyone.

BTW, if the difficulty of construction is more important than the actual running characteristics, then why don't you just scratch build everything? Why are you even buying Athearn models (the definition of shake-the-box modeling), let alone P1K's? Cast your own out of resin or lead, or build it from stryene or brass. Why complain what a Walthers flyer says is the price of something you don't seem to get much enjoyment from anyways?

First off I don't want to be a model builder that occasionally runs trains. I want to be a model builder that runs trains. I do scratchbuild several items. But F-units I can not do because I do not have a miniature english wheel to roll out the compound curves. Then if I did have one, I wouldn't know how to use it. Then since I am a model builder who runs trains, I can't spend 40 something months building a locomotive or freight car. Becasue well, I have trains to run. So to get what I need I am fond of the Kitbash. Since SDP40s are hard to come by and the one that was made is out of scale. I have taken several SD40-2s and out of these am making the Locomotives that I need. My next project is taking some SD60s and slicing, dicing, and glueing back to gether and when I am done will have an SDP45. Which are only available in brass. Then I like Athearns for the simple fact that they can drop five feet off the edge of the layout onto the floor and survive. Then adding extra detail to these locomotives, is well fun.

QUOTE: Apparently, realism is not your goal. GP7's and GP9's are also very simular in appearance, but I would never buy a GP7 and paint it up for New Haven because the NH had GP9's, not GP7's. It would be wrong. F3's and F7's are even more dissimular, and if the NH had either one, I would not use the other as a "substitute" because that would not be realistic, but to each their own. I suppose you would also find the NH's FL9's "substitutable" with F7's or F3's, as well...

Realism is a personal goal of mine. However I urge you to consider the case of Mr. Bob. Mr. Bob is new to model railroading. He is looking at the counter in the hobby shop and sees these two locomives in the display case. An F-7 and an F-3. There is a selection of these two roadnames to choose from. There are F-7s in Santa Fe, There are F3s in Santa Fe, There are F7s for Union Pacific, F3s for Union Pacific. F7s for B&O and F3s for B&O. So to Mr Bob. Who probably doesn;t know that the F-7 is the F3s replacement and that the two are somewhat mutually exclusive for some roads. He just sees two similar locomotives from two different model manufactures. Before Horizon he probably would have gone for the Athearn BB becasue, It is less expensive, than the P 1K loco. As for the FL-9s and F-7s being substitutable. I don't think so. That extra axal on the rear truck is a pretty glaring difference. However an FP-7 with a Three Axal rear truck. I would consider that good eneugh to get the varnish down the road.

QUOTE:
Take a look at the NH scheme on the Athearn BB F-units. Totally bogus in every detail except they got the color black and white correct. Besides the fact that the model is an F7 and not an FL9, the logos are the wrong shape and in the wrong places, the numbers are supposed to be 2000-2059, not 0272, the FL9's only had one head light, the orange is not supposed to be that shade, the "NEW HAVEN" on the side of the loco is wrong, the NH never had EMD B-units but Athearn makes them, the striping around the nose is a joke, etc. A total fantasy paint scheme. Revell got it right, for pete's sake.

Shows how much I pay attention to the New Haven. As for the F-unit scheme being bogus. Kind of hard to tell, Wern't they the RR company with a corporate Identity Crisis? Don Ball's Book "America's Colorful Railraods stated that at one time the New Haven had something like 12 different paint schemes on the rails at one time. What is up with that? So if the F-Unit has the wrong paint scheme. With that much variation who would notice? One thing is for sure makes for a colorful locomotive roster though.

QUOTE:
Good. Does this mean you'll stop complaining about high prices?

No because that is how much locomotives are supposed to cost.

James.

[AntonioFP45]

Paul3,

You certainly brought back some memories. I bought an Athearn New Haven F7A & B set way back around 1979-1980. Additionally I bought an Athearn SDP40 in the NH scheme as well. That "SDP" was one nice looking unit! I was a bit dissappointed when I learned that the NH didn't have any. I figure Uncle Irv used his "Freelance LIcense" again.

I enjoyed them for a while and eventually traded them for other rolling stock.

I've heard that Branford Hobbies makes or made a plastic or resin NH EP5. I hope I to acquire one. Do you have any info on this?

[Paul3]

Student of Big Sky Blue wrote:

QUOTE: In my Sept. Walthers Flyer, On Page 8. It shows a P1K F3 AB set price stated is $165.

Then why would they be advertising brand new F3A-B sets on their own website for only $145?

QUOTE: I bought both AB sets when P-1K introduced the GN roadname. As a matter of fact. The hobby shop I purchased them at was celebrating 50 Years being in business and I picked them both up for a grand total of $90.00

Let me see if I get this straight. You are comparing a sale price at an LHS to the full MSRP? Well, who wouldn't that be obvious that the MSRP is more than a "50 years in business" sale price? Besides, $75 was the MSRP for P1K DL109's and RDC-1's. $145 is not out of line for two F3's. $165 would be out of line, but then, they aren't at Walthers.com.

BTW, using that chain of thought, I should be outraged that Atlas is charging $99.95 for the latest run of C-425's when I was able to pick up an Undec. older run C-425 for $25 brand new at an LHS (never mind that it was his last Century that he just couldn't sell and that all Undec's were 50% off).

QUOTE: I get more enjoyment from BB F-units than I did from the P-1K ones because I get to sink my hands with it and work with them than just setting them on the track and go. Or is everything supposed ready to go with no modeling involved? Or has this hobby changed to "Miniature Train Running" and I am left diddly dinking around at the workbench.

The hobby is what you make of it. If you want to be a model builder that occasionally runs trains, then go right ahead. I'd rather be a guy that models railroad operations that occasionally builds models. But that's the nice thing about model railroading. Everyone who owns a Thomas the Tank Engine to Tony Koester is a model railroader...it's a big enough hobby for everyone.

BTW, if the difficulty of construction is more important than the actual running characteristics, then why don't you just scratch build everything? Why are you even buying Athearn models (the definition of shake-the-box modeling), let alone P1K's? Cast your own out of resin or lead, or build it from stryene or brass. Why complain what a Walthers flyer says is the price of something you don't seem to get much enjoyment from anyways?

QUOTE: No F3s are not F7s. However I contend that they are substitutible products.

Apparently, realism is not your goal. GP7's and GP9's are also very simular in appearance, but I would never buy a GP7 and paint it up for New Haven because the NH had GP9's, not GP7's. It would be wrong. F3's and F7's are even more dissimular, and if the NH had either one, I would not use the other as a "substitute" because that would not be realistic, but to each their own. I suppose you would also find the NH's FL9's "substitutable" with F7's or F3's, as well...

QUOTE: As for your addressing of Fantasy Schemes on the BB F7. I don't see any "Chatanooga Choo Choo" or "Kansas Durango & Colorado like Tyco was fond of making.

Take a look at the NH scheme on the Athearn BB F-units. Totally bogus in every detail except they got the color black and white correct. Besides the fact that the model is an F7 and not an FL9, the logos are the wrong shape and in the wrong places, the numbers are supposed to be 2000-2059, not 0272, the FL9's only had one head light, the orange is not supposed to be that shade, the "NEW HAVEN" on the side of the loco is wrong, the NH never had EMD B-units but Athearn makes them, the striping around the nose is a joke, etc. A total fantasy paint scheme. Revell got it right, for pete's sake.

QUOTE: Thanks. I will have to pick a few of them up.

Good. Does this mean you'll stop complaining about high prices?

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************

[waltersrails]

I agree with bxcarmike

Also i wish you guys would stop crying about it. If you look at history everything
slowly goes up in price. I don't like the high prices any myself but I have desided
suck it up and deal with it.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Paul3

Ignoring the usual banter about the future of model railroading and getting back to the original post...

Student of Big Sky Blue,
You said that the Walthers flyer listed F3A-B (I assume ex-LLP1K) sets for $165. Then why is it that when I search Walthers' website, I can only find the brand new (expected 10-31-05) ex-LLP1K F3A-B sets for $145?

In my Sept. Walthers Flyer, On Page 8. It shows a P1K F3 AB set price stated is $165.

QUOTE:
As far as your assertion that these models are "only slightly better than old Athearn Blue Box F-7s", then I would suggest you need to actually compare them, side by side. The F3 drives (smooth & quiet) are vastly superior to the old BB F7's (rough and loud). then, you don't have the "cookout in the cab" lightbulb in the F3's, unlike the BB F7's.

I have. I bought both AB sets when P-1K introduced the GN roadname. As a matter of fact. The hobby shop I purchased them at was celebrating 50 Years being in business and I picked them both up for a grand total of $90.00 I also have serveral F-7s A and Bs from Athearn. This gives me very good grounds to compare the two. Here is what the P-1K has over the the Athearn BB. An accurately shaped nose. Light comming out in the right places. glass in the windows, And Yes quieter performance.

However the ligting coming out in the cab, Glass in the windows, and a quiet drive are easily rectified with an evening of patient tinkering. (Cutting and installing glass. Changing light bulbs, and removing flash and play from the drive train. Because if this so called "Model Building"" I get more enjoyment from BB F-units than I did from the P-1K ones because I get to sink my hands with it and work with them than just setting them on the track and go. Or is everything supposed ready to go with no modeling involved? Or has this hobby changed to "Miniature Train Running" and I am left diddly dinking around at the workbench.

QUOTE:
For starters, F3's are not F7's Then you have the actually prototypical paint schemes on the F3's vs. the fantasy BB F7 schemes. And so on.

No F3s are not F7s. However I contend that they are substitutible products. Both Locomotives have a highly similar appearence, Both locomotives performed highly similar duties on the prototype, and both locomotives worked together on many of the same railroads. So leaving the question. Do you want the F3 or the F7? As for your addressing of Fantasy Schemes on the BB F7. I don't see any "Chatanooga Choo Choo" or "Kansas Durango & Colorado like Tyco was fond of making.

QUOTE:
BTW, as far as your whining about the high cost of model railroading, consider this: Walthers.com lists an F3A-F3A for sale...only $36.00. It's made by Model Power. Here's the link:

http://www.walthers.com/exec/productinfo/490-6730

Thanks. I will have to pick a few of them up. Have Paint stripper on hand, or is stripping and repainting taboo now?

James

[vsmith]

Greyfox, some sobering thoughts!

Glad i spent when I had the spare greenbacks to get my loco collection up to where it is now, as the way things are going gas/heating/cost of living wise, I likely will not be doing any major hobby related purchasing for a long time, but I am willing to learn more kitbashing and alot more scratchbuilding technics for my future layout and rolling stock needs.

Maybe we all should be looking into that? A roll back to the days of John Allen and cardstock freight cars? As I remember there was a day when everything was scratchbuild and such cars were very inexpensive material wise to build.

[grayfox1119]

Fred, you did an excellent job of authoring what you perceive is happening in MRR today and tomorrow. I agree with your accessments for the most part. I do feel that as the baby boomer generation ( 1946 -1967 ) starts to retire in greater numbers, people who love this hobby will migrate into it. Having said that, the big question will still remain, will they have enough discretionary income to afford the prices, as the prices for all MRR equipment will surely rise. Medical premiums are going up at an exponential rate. Between when I retired in September 2000 until 2005, my medical premiums have risen $109 a month on a fixed income. My ss increases have totaled $56, of which I had to pay an ever increasing Medicare part B premium once I hit 65 , so that my net gain was $0 over 5 years. So if the baby boomers do not have a substantial 401K, or other income source, they will be up the tracks without any oil/coal in their tender. How will they ever afford to buy into this hobby? Real Estate taxes go up every year, medical premiums are out of sight with no end in sight either, gasolene, food, home owners insurance is nutso ( don't dare have a claim!!!, you will either be cancelled or the rates will increase dramatically ), car insurance rates, electricity bills are going crazy because of the cost of fuel/coal/natural gas. Gee, did I forget anything? Ohh yes, your internet provider, Cable bill, phone bill, magazine subscriptions. I think all you folks who are getting ready to retire get the point, those of us who are ALREADY retired FEEL the point. Will to get better? You judge....the cost of the war in Iraq ( billions of $$ ), two terrible hurricanes ( cost could hit $250 billion ), the national debt now racing towards a TRILLION dollars, China rapidly taking over all the manufacturing of goods in the world with their $0.16 hourly wage rate for workers, the value of the dollar plunging against other world currencies, interest rates being raised by the Fed 10 so far in .25% increments, and many more to come. So what do think guys and gals, can we afford this hobby if we are just starting out, or, will be in about 2-5 years?
If you want it bad enough, you will find a way, ( maybe handing out smily face stickers at the door of WalMart ) but if you are already in the hobby, buying the way you once did may not be an option. Are you taking notice BLI, Walthers/LifeLike, Bowser, Bachmann etc.? Is there anyone home in Marketing Research Dept.?

I feel a great disturbance in the force also !!

[skiloff]

Good points, grande man! I think each of us has to look at it like the famous Kennedy speech - "Ask not what your hobby can do for you, but ask what can you do for the hobby." If each person on this forum got a young person interested in the hobby and helped and encouraged them, this hobby would thrive. That also means not putting people down because they don't enjoy the hobby the way you do. Let people enjoy the hobby in the way they like.

[vsmith]

The more I look at whats happening in HO and N the more glad I am that I chose G!

I have yet to spend more than $60 for any one loco (except one special collectable) all my cars have averaged $25 max, with most being got for under $20, some for less the $10! The most I have spent for is track, $35 for a switch, and I have seen HO switches for alot more than that. The rest of the track has been comperable to prices I have seen in HO, 10 feet of track in G is about the same as 10 feet of track in HO.

Yes I could spend like a drunken sailor and spend 1000's of greenbacks on this scale, but I dont HAVE to, I can spend what I now realize has been a bargain compared to HO N or O scales. I kitbash and scratchbuild what I can't buy, and just have a great time with it.

[grandeman]

Since the thread has switched to the state of the hobby, I have some suggestions.

Bring a kid over to see your layout and run some trains, post a link to your photo album on an unrelated web forum, tell your coworkers how much you enjoy model railroading. I've done all of those things and, while they're a small contribution, maybe we'd gain some numbers in our ranks if everyone positively potrayed the hobby to other folks. Just a thought...

[fwright]

That the hobby will change dramtically over the next 20 years I have no doubt. The following facts and trends really can't be disputed:
1) as baby boomer generation health and eyesight fail (and I'm at the end of that generation) the number of model railroaders will decline. There are too many interactive competing hobbies, and too little exposure to railroading (both prototype and model) to totally replace the baby boomers.
2) as pointed out in other posts, the brass importers, and now the high end RTR chased an ever-dwindling market at ever-higher levels of quality and price. These markets will eventually crash because of the shrinking hobby base, and the "insane" prices. I believe there is anecdotal evidence that this is already starting to happen in 3 rail O.
3) the hobby supply distribution system is changing rapidly. The number of LHS is shrinking quickly - check the dealer advertising section in the back of MR and other mags. The once mighty discount mail-order houses have virtually completely disappeared, along with their mulitple page ads in the press. A few Internet -based discounters have tried to take their place. E-Bay has become a major and accepted component of the hobby supply distribution system - didn't even exist 8 years ago as a significant factor. Don't know where this will all end because a significant portion of the hobby consumers still want to see what they are buying with their own eyes before they buy. Will that change, and detailed pictures become sufficient when most modelers no longer live within driving distance of an LHS?
4) information distribution has changed significantly. Nearly all the general MR magazines have lost circulation, as has the NMRA lost membership. But forums are alive and well, and along with web sites, have become an accepted way to spread and share information. In addition, the magazines have lost significant ad revenues from LHS, from discount retailers, and from manufacturers.
5) The price of labor relative to machinery will continue to increase world-wide (as it has for at least the past 200 years in the industrialized world).
6) In the U.S. at least, the amount of time available for solo leisure pursuits like MR will continue to decrease. Note that this is at least partially cultural - spending time in the basement/garage away from family/friends on a relatively sedentary personal hobby has actually become less socially acceptable in mainstream America than in the '50s and '60s.
7) Consolidation of the medium and large hobby manufacturers.

My crystal ball says the hobby will change as follows based on the preceding points:

1) The hobby will not provide full-time livelihoods to nearly the number of "journalists" as today. Authors should not expect the same level of renumeration - if any - for their work in the future.
2) The division between collectors and operators will likely grow in the near term, then shrink in the longer term. Collectors will keep prices high on those items deemed "collectible". The rest of the used market for formerly high end RTR and brass will drop somewhat (already happening for older brass not deemed as desirable), and drop further once baby boom collectors start dying off in large numbers. The operators will develop discipline to just build or acquire what is needed for/fits their particular layout/club operation.
3) There will be a very few large manufacturers who will be all you hear/read about in the press. It will appear to somebody reading a hobby magazine (which will double in price to cover shrinking circulation and ad revenue) that there is nothing else to the hobby. They will focus on RTR to keep costs in check. Small "basement" manufacturing will continue to proliferate, but you will learn about their products on the Internet and in forums. These small manufacturers will produce the kits, details, and other supplies that we want. Prices for these items will be all over the board, as lack of knowledge of how to price a product causes too low/too high pricing decisions. These small manufacturers will come and go, just as they always have.
4) The number of active MRs will continue to shrink to about half its current level, and then stabilize at a sustainable population.

Couldn't resist chiming in (in railroad bell tones of course)
Fred Wright

[sansouci]

You all should try Marklin if you want to see expensive trains. Many are still made in Germany, but even they are offshoring to Hungary and to china for the more commodity-like freight cars. The Chinese will be paying more for their oil too! And how can the hobby be shrinking if there are more and more manufacturers? However in Europe, several manufacturers did file for bankruptcy as their costs continued to rise and volumes were flat.

[trainboyH16-44]

I have felt a great disturbance in the force......Specifically the force in my pocket caused by the weight of my wallet has dropped off.
Trainboy

[Anonymous]

When I got back in this hobby In '94 the economy was robust,and you thought nothing of throwing down a hundred bucks on train stuff, now the economy is down people spend their money were it's needed,mortgages etc, the hobby takes a back seat so to speak. Prices are higher, rtr has dominated because it seems like that's what sells now, I'll bet all hobbys are feeling the pinch not just trains. Price a mountain bike,snowmobile,hunting rifle,fishing pole lately,it's the same, Years ago I helped on a race car,you think this is expensive? The point is, you have to do yuor homework,know your prices,and shop around,internet stores always have deals. There are bargains to be had.

[Anonymous]

Here are questions you should ask and answer

Today compared to 5 or 10 years ago are there more or fewer:

train stores
trains shows
train mags
train manufacturing companies
guys buying model trains

??????

[Paul3]

Ignoring the usual banter about the future of model railroading and getting back to the original post...

Student of Big Sky Blue,
You said that the Walthers flyer listed F3A-B (I assume ex-LLP1K) sets for $165. Then why is it that when I search Walthers' website, I can only find the brand new (expected 10-31-05) ex-LLP1K F3A-B sets for $145?

As far as your assertion that these models are "only slightly better than old Athearn Blue Box F-7s", then I would suggest you need to actually compare them, side by side.

For starters, F3's are not F7's (if people want an F3, they are not going to buy an F7). Secondly, the F3 drives (smooth & quiet) are vastly superior to the old BB F7's (rough and loud). Thirdly, you don't have the "cookout in the cab" lightbulb in the F3's, unlike the BB F7's. Then you have the actually prototypical paint schemes on the F3's vs. the fantasy BB F7 schemes. And so on.

BTW, as far as your whining about the high cost of model railroading, consider this: Walthers.com lists an F3A-F3A for sale...only $36.00. It's made by Model Power. Here's the link:

http://www.walthers.com/exec/productinfo/490-6730

Enjoy!

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************

[Anonymous]

For what its worth, I just got into the hobby within the past year, and I don't think this hobby is any more expensive that any other.

Perhaps, some people here would say that people like me *are* the problem.

After I got interested in the hobby, the guy down the road from me wanted to get into it, also (that's two men in their 40's, who spend most of thier spare time in outdoors type things, coming into the hobby).

I helped to set him up. He got a BLI M1 Mountain type with sound, on clearance, drop shipped from BLI for $129 (I think it was). Pretty nice starter's engine! He got a DCC system for $170 or something. And a box of Atlas track, Customline turnouts, a few plastic structure kits, and some basic scenery.

Its only a shelf type layout along the walls like mine, but he is up and running a real railroad .......switching cars all over, many spurs, etc. Let me be clear ....he runs it....operates it....has fun with it. And, like me, puts together rolling stock kits, puts decoders in cheaper, old engines, etc as time permits. It was not a huge initial investment.

This is a hobby, not playing with toys. There are toy train sets, if someone wants to go that route.

If a young person wants to get into mountain biking, how much does that cost? Not a junk bike and accesories from a toy store, but a TREK or something from a bike store?

People previously mentioned RC cars and trucks. There is cheap junk from the toy store, and there is the stuff from the hobby store. That stuff is expensive, and maintaining it is expensive, too. I've been there. BTW, that's another hobby that has seen an explosion of RTR.

A video game machine is a few hundred dollars, and each game is $52? $57? I guess the game prices will go up some more when the next generation machines start coming out this Christmas (XBOX 360 ?).

I have three sons that shoot with me. And you know boys, they will just shoot box after box of ammo...... shotshells and centerfire cartridges (rimfires are no longer fun when they become teens, lol). Relaod? Thats a whole other full time hobby. And the price of a new gun ..... a relatively simple machine?

Rebuilding cars. A boat for the lake so the family can ski and fish. Dirt bike. ATV. Lift ticket at the slopes. etc etc etc

I guess what I'm asking..... has model railroading changed more than other things in life? Did it used to be that much more inexpensive (after taking into account .. inflation)? Those branchline kits are how much? Big, gigantic layouts, with scores of engines, isn't that a life's work, or almost.

Life goes on. Or, I guess we should say ....... train roll on, oh down the line (Lynyrd Skynyrd).

Jim

[MAbruce]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831
Bruce - Go back and read my very detailed and lengthy posts, which included numerous verifiable figures. These were presented and I assume widely read based on the number of times they were viewed, in a long thread earlier in the summer.

I do recall that you brought up MRR circulation figures before. They were very interesting, but could indicate a number of other things. If I missed something else – please point me to it. However, I do not ever recall anyone being able to bring up revenue figures and balance sheet results. These are the numbers that matter. They indicate not only sales & revenue trends but the general financial health of the MRR companies. When sizing up the industry, these numbers are at the heart of what we need to know.

QUOTE: There most certainly are hard numbers available in many areas and none of them are optomistic. Personally, I don't like for a moment what the numbers indicate, yet these are still what the numbers show.

It's certainly possible that these "hard numbers" indicate trouble. But I don't see them as conclusive enough to make a call one way or the other.

QUOTE: The worse thing I do see is how many hobbyists act like ostriches, will insist figures don't indicate anything because it's not what they want to hear, and will simply refuse to look into the situation in detail for themselves.

Well, that's just human nature. I've been guilty of doing that too! [:D]

QUOTE: In your own situation the rising costs of model railroading have completely curtailed your financial participation in the hobby. Do you think this is unique?

I don’t think it’s a matter of it being unique – which I’m sure it isn’t – but whether there are a significant number of people in my position that is having a negative impact on the industry. That I can’t answer.

QUOTE: A great many longtime, older hobbyists are being forced out too and any new, younger prospects become increasingly hesitant to enter when they realize that, today, even at the entry level, a decent, operational layout easily runs into quite a few thousands of dollars...especially if it involves purchase of many RTR items.

I have a theory (emphasize theory) that it will be a combination of steadily increasing prices and the passing of the country’s largest demographic – the baby boomers - that could be trouble for the hobby. Even if there is a big swell in interest amoung the younger generations, they may never be able to come up with the numbers to replace the number of older generation modelers who have and will be soon passing. Also, quality used equipment will flood the market at lower prices through estate sales, and the manufactures will have a hard time competing on price.

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure the doom and gloom is called for or that prices are out of line with inflation; however after years of retail I know that price is related to gross margin/realized net profit, and prices are adjusted to maintain gross margins. As an example let's say Walthers sets their net profit for the company at a target of 5 to 7%. Each profit center including their retail,wholesale, Life Like and other manufacturing sectors are expected to deliver that percentage. One problem arises in the plan when you acquire an obligation to deliver a large commitment of product to a "retailer" that will only yield 1 to 1.5% net profit. Granted the cash flow is attractive when the product is finally paid for, which may not be for six to twelve months. The "lost profit" has to be made up somewhere to finance the production and delivery of future revenue.(Could this be the traditional hobby end of the business... the "cash cow"?)
So lets hope that the Life Like slot car experience with Walmart works to Walthers favor, and that we don't have another Rocco disaster in Milwaukee. Until the "new business plan" plays out I suspect high prices will be the norm. It may well be a contiued rocky road in this new manufacturing expedition. Lets hope it works out or we will be looking at a very different hobby structure in the future.
Will

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by MAbruce

This is yet another re-hash of a tired topic.

Why do I say tired? Because no one has offered any HARD evidence/numbers that the hobby is either declining or increasing. This is mainly because all MRR manufacturers are privately held companies that do not have any requirement to disclose their financial results. Let’s face it folks, without hard numbers from the financials, we’re only left to guess what’s going on by other indicators that are not always a reliable way of measuring what the market is doing.

So let’s stop taking ourselves so seriously on this subject and admit that we just don’t really know. We can only make guesses.

But I will tell you something I DO know. I have not spent a single dollar on the hobby this year. At the end of last year I determined that I could no longer afford to keep up. So my layout went into stasis, my Ntrak membership went into dormancy, and the meager MRR budget I would have worked with went into small home improvement items.

That’s certainly not an indicator of the state of the hobby, but it’s an important indicator to me. Prices in this hobby have gone up way too much and I’m getting far more satisfaction spending it on my house where it seems to go much further.

Bruce - Go back and read my very detailed and lengthy posts, which included numerous verifiable figures. These were presented and I assume widely read based on the number of times they were viewed, in a long thread earlier in the summer. There most certainly are hard numbers available in many areas and none of them are optomistic. Personally, I don't like for a moment what the numbers indicate, yet these are still what the numbers show. The worse thing I do see is how many hobbyists act like ostriches, will insist figures don't indicate anything because it's not what they want to hear, and will simply refuse to look into the situation in detail for themselves. As I've indicated many times previously, I'd welcome opposing hard facts but they are never forthcoming.

In your own situation the rising costs of model railroading have completely curtailed your financial participation in the hobby. Do you think this is unique? A great many longtime, older hobbyists are being forced out too and any new, younger prospects become increasingly hesitant to enter when they realize that, today, even at the entry level, a decent, operational layout easily runs into quite a few thousands of dollars...especially if it involves purchase of many RTR items.

The general hobby is following the same course collectible brass did over the last four decades. Prices endlessly rose and the number of buyers steadily declined. Eventually the manufacturers (importers) were dealing with a very small group of individuals to whom price was no real object. Where once there was a thriving facet of our hobby involving tens of thousands of modelers, there is now just a small group being specifically cartered to. If the direction things are going toward does not change, you will see the same state of affairs evolve for the rest of the hobby.

CNJ831

[MAbruce]

This is yet another re-hash of a tired topic.

Why do I say tired? Because no one has offered any HARD evidence/numbers that the hobby is either declining or increasing. This is mainly because all MRR manufacturers are privately held companies that do not have any requirement to disclose their financial results. Let’s face it folks, without hard numbers from the financials, we’re only left to guess what’s going on by other indicators that are not always a reliable way of measuring what the market is doing.

So let’s stop taking ourselves so seriously on this subject and admit that we just don’t really know. We can only make guesses.

But I will tell you something I DO know. I have not spent a single dollar on the hobby this year. At the end of last year I determined that I could no longer afford to keep up. So my layout went into stasis, my Ntrak membership went into dormancy, and the meager MRR budget I would have worked with went into small home improvement items.

That’s certainly not an indicator of the state of the hobby, but it’s an important indicator to me. Prices in this hobby have gone up way too much and I’m getting far more satisfaction spending it on my house where it seems to go much further.

[IRONROOSTER]

Doom and gloom.
Remember when slot cars were going to take over from trains?
Remember how the hobby was deteriorating because these new fangled plastic kits were ruining the craftsman market?
And my favorite - the manufacturers are all in a conspiracy to charge high prices even though they make the stuff for pennies.

The hobby isn't free, but to expect museum quality at toy store prices is unrealistic. We've had several threads on prices, when you go back and look at price increases for items that existed 20-30 years ago you find that they are generally in line with inflation. Problem is we don't want the quality of 30 years ago.

Enjoy
Paul

[AntonioFP45]

Oh, well, no offense to those with counter view points, but yes......I heard the doom and gloom predictions back then from owners, modelers, and I clearly remember reading opinions in magazines back (before the "internet explosion") with modelers complaining about increasing prices and the decline, percentage wise, of modelers entering the hobby. I remember because it was shortly before I met the woman that was to be my wife.

Uh, do any of you remember modelers complaining back in the mid 80s that the new "video game systems" (Playstation, Sega Saturn, etc.), as well as rising fuel costs were going to help doom the hobby? I even became concerned. Two LHS owners I spoke with back then basically told me to ignore it. I'm glad I took their advice.

Now, today I'm seeing and hearing the same, very tired, rhetoric A-G-A-I-N. I agree that some prices are getting ridiculous but we will always have options. To this day I haven't paid anymore than $48 for a P2K E7, which were $100 at my local LHS's when they first hit the market.

My point was that my income is not high at all (I'm a Tech Teacher) and chances are that many of you are better off financially than I am. Yet, I find a way to get the items I want, so can most of us.

So Doom and Gloomers...........You make very valid points.....I'm not dissing you but please think about this: You guys are certainly not helping the hobby at all. Newbies reading these types of threads may decide to go somewhere else.

Expensive? My neighbor is an RC Car nut. Makes less money than I do but doesn't blink when he spends $300 for one car. John Clark, I man I used to work is an RC airplane nut. Last time I saw him, he proudly showed me a new high performance engine he bought for his RC Cessna. He didn't bat an eyelash when he told me he spent $500!

Mama-Mia! I'll stick to trains. [:D]

Peace!

[TBat55]

At least I can afford more than those Chinese getting $0.16 per hour. What's that worth? A couple of ties or a tree?

[philnrunt]

Alot of good points being made on all sides, but I have to agree with Blue Skys basic complaint- a big price increase with absolutely no improvement in quality.
I bought 2 Kato SD38-2s earlier this year, and paid what I thought was a pretty steep price for them, but i knew Kato quality was worth it. Walthers still makes stuff comparable to early years Blue Box, thick and bulky and not the best runners, and they charge premium prices for them.
Thats where my major complaint lies. I'll be glad to pay for better quality when I can, but don't gouge me for the level of quality Walthers puts out.
It's just not worth it.

[Anonymous]

This thread has caused me to write, rewrite and edit.

Gone are the days you could buy a bunch of blue box rolling stock inside a hobby shop for 10.00 Get over it. There is always ebay. That wonderful ebay service that was only 10 years or so in existance has allowed me to acquire items supposidely discontinued or OOP forever.

Also gone are the days where you actually had time to cook breakfast with the family in the morning, take a full hour for lunch and actually make dinner fresh from stractch and get in the TV show before bed during the workday. Everything today is instant, microwave and virtually disposible. They built cars 30 years ago and they last forever. Today's cars are expected to wear out within 10 years forcing you in a endless cycle of car payments and finance charges to the lucky seller and his factory. (I buy used with one time cash payments and beat the system that way)

I still support the hobby shop.. but I dont go there as often anymore. I still spend as much money but come home with a smaller bag and fewer items. So I must choose carefully what I purchase.

The days of 24/7 availiblity of many items are gone.

Factories demand advance reservations for a copy of that Limited Run item before the deadline. Kinda hard to be buying engines without ever seeing or hearing one in person at the hobby shop now isnt it? Yes I did order the Reading T-1 (Who hasnt?) simply because the company that is making it is similar to BLI but with a different sound decoder. And no one ever made this engine in plastic RTR before.

If said engine does not perform.. I put it up on ebay. Someone else will snap it up quickly enough. So are we now in the age of the "Disposable trains?" I think so.

Wait until China gains the financial moxie to pay thier workers 20.00 an hour in the factory and outsource THIER needs to another third world nation such as Ethopia or Vietnam. Our stuff coming from there will get REALLY expensive and bite those who thought they could save money by outsourcing in the ***.

I wrestle with utility bills that climb higher with incessant offers from the same companies to buy more services and pay more money per month. Fighting costs that climb such as gasoline makes me think twice about going to the store unless I have a second or third errand that can be accomodated in that area as well for one trip.

PFM and Brass is just as good as DCC and Onboard QSI sound. It is a matter of "Driving" the trains somewhat differently. I think those who use DC control with Cab-block signalling to control trains on thier layouts are in good shape. With QSI they can have the cake and eat it too.

DCC on the other hand.. they can make trains do things that our granddaddies can only dream of. So .. are you running DCC for it's simplicy or trying to keep up with the Joneses at the club?

When I was younger.. trains were sold in Kaybee next to the Atari video games and model kits. That was like.. 30 years ago. Now.. trains are non-exisitant in Kaybee and if anywhere outside a REAL hobby shop are likely to be really questionable in quality.

Children today will enjoy trains in the future.. but they will definately need that college education to support the hobby with that nice paycheck... er.. salary.

The rest of us buy and trade with the internet to literally find the lowest price possible for a item. So.. I think this is a time of war between those who wi***o sell trains verus the factory (Maker of trains) and the shoppers... (You and me) as pawns. Only that we can now turn to ebay or other sources to bypass the full MSRP or work an end run around that limited run 6 month's after it's sold out release.