Looks like the thread has been unlocked. Thanks, now back on topic.
I think youth must still be coming into the hobby, as I see the Lionel 2022 catalog has Thomas Tank Engine, Harry Potter, and several sets based on multiple Disney movies. They have also had these in the past, so I am sure they must be selling to someone.
For years I have gone to train shows seeing people of all ages. Little kids loving the trains, fathers and sons (and yes, mothers and daughters) looking at layouts, buying lots of stuff. At one church I pastored, we had an annual Christmas event centered around trains and it was well attended, with people of all ages loving the trains.
The hobby was dying when I started in it back in the mid 70's.
Peter
HO-Velo Summer of 2011 and I was standing in a long line waiting to enter the NMRA convention show in Sacramento. A woman behind me said to her significant other, "judging by all the gray hair in this line I'd say your hobby is dying." Fall of 2022, looks to me like the hobby is still alive, regardless of how much gray hair. Regards, Peter
Summer of 2011 and I was standing in a long line waiting to enter the NMRA convention show in Sacramento. A woman behind me said to her significant other, "judging by all the gray hair in this line I'd say your hobby is dying." Fall of 2022, looks to me like the hobby is still alive, regardless of how much gray hair.
Regards, Peter
I know I have a lot more gray hair than I did in 2011. I went to renew my driver's license last week and when the clerk asked me for hair color, I said brown without giving it a thought. She then gave me a strange look and then said, "Well, OK, I guess".
As for the hobby, I see no indication its demise is near. I'm sure it will outlive me. I'm not worried about its fate after that.
SeeYou190when i was still the " train repair guy " at caloosa trains & hobbies we had a big slot car track at the other end of the building & sadly it just gathered dust & eventually the owner took it down. wjstix Ya if you weren't around in the sixties, it's hard to imagine now how popular slot cars were Around 2004-2008 I was racing 1/25 slot cars with my girls. There were probably a dozen world class 1/25 scale road racing eight lane slot car tracks in Florida back then. Now I do not know of a single one. -Kevin
wjstix Ya if you weren't around in the sixties, it's hard to imagine now how popular slot cars were
Around 2004-2008 I was racing 1/25 slot cars with my girls.
There were probably a dozen world class 1/25 scale road racing eight lane slot car tracks in Florida back then.
Now I do not know of a single one.
-Kevin
Any chance of getting this back on topic, fellas? Otherwise, I'm going to close shop...
Thanks,
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
Andy and all:
To quote Mark Twain. "The reports of my demise are greatly exagerated."
I think what we see in this hobby is a lot of turnover. Both manufacturers and retailers come and go. There is also good deal of consolidation. We see fewer LHS but a good reason for that is the advent of online retailers. We used to have mail order retailers but it is so much more convenient to go online and with a few clicks have your order in. There are also a lot more choices of sellers online than there was with the old snail mail sellers. With ebay, there are a lot of small time sellers dealing in just a few products.
With the manufacturers, we see companies going out of business only to be replaced by new ones. I have seen no drop off in the products available to us than 30 or 40 years ago. If anything, we have greater choices than ever and better products to boot. Let's not go down the this-hobby-has-gotten-so-expensive rabbit hole. If you adjust for inflation, it's no more expensive now than it has been in the past.
Prior to returning to the hobby I thought the hobby was dying. Several years after my return I think the hobby is doing quite well.
I model trains from the U.S, U.K, Europe and Australia. In each case I am seeing increasing numbers of products entering the market. Many of them expensive yet they are selling. The second hand market seems to be going like gang busters also.
So overall I would say the hobby is doing rather well at the moment. Now, as it looks like we are about to enter a global recession (This seems to be the talk on several different forums I am in both the U.S and overseas) it will be worth watching how the hobby fairs. I suspect it will survive and come out the other side okay.
wjstix Jetrock The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners" Right, I didn't say the author 'blamed' them, simply that people born in the last 30 years or so don't join organizations and make commitments the way prior generations did. Today it even shows up in things like younger folks preferring to rent rather than own, and to take part in the "gig ecomony" rather than have a career job, so they can stay more flexible to change their life if they should choose to.
Jetrock The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners"
Right, I didn't say the author 'blamed' them, simply that people born in the last 30 years or so don't join organizations and make commitments the way prior generations did. Today it even shows up in things like younger folks preferring to rent rather than own, and to take part in the "gig ecomony" rather than have a career job, so they can stay more flexible to change their life if they should choose to.
After I had already paid off the mortgage on my first house, I learned something interesting from a financial planner. When people buy a house, they often only compare their mortgage payment to the rent payment. They fail to take into consideration additional expenses such as upkeep and insurance. He said that if a renter were to invest the difference between their rent payment and the true cost of owning a home, within ten years they would probably have enough to buy a similar house and pay cash for it. From a financial standpoint, renting does make sense. There are, of course, other reasons for wanting to own beyond the financial considerations.
I suppose in model railroading, technology has something to do with it - beyond the internet. When the NMRA started for example, it was (as I understand it) primarily started by a coming together of several model railroad clubs. In fact, I guess most of the early NMRA conventions were hosted by specific clubs. In the 1930s O scale was king, so clubs were much more necessary. Not many folks then (or now) have room to build a large O scale layout with 6-foot radius curves and such, so a large area was needed. Plus back then even kits needed things like a drill press to build, which a club could more easily afford than an individual modeller. As smaller scales, "shake the box" kits, and RTR equipment came along, it became easier to build a substantial home layout by yourself.
I never cease to be amazed at some of the great layouts that were built in the 1950s and 1960s before modelers had all the advantages we have now. I am a proponent of taking advantage of RTR and prebuilt structures as a time saver. If I could afford it, I would have my layout professionally build to my design specifications. For the most part, I don't enjoy layout building and take advantage of as many shortcuts as I can afford.
JetrockThe point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners"
wjstix One factor in the appearance of the hobby dying is the "Bowling Alone" factor. "Bowling Alone" was a book that came out a while back, dealing with how younger people aren't "joiners" like their parents or grandparents were. The author used the example of bowling - more people go bowling each year than ever before, but they aren't joining leagues. Young folks don't want to commit to being somewhere doing something for 33 weeks straight, they just want to go once or twice a month with their friends. Same holds true for many societies, fraternal organizations etc. I'm sure there's something similar in railroading. I belong to several railroad historical societys; each time they report on the membership, it's gone down. Conventions have fewer and fewer people who don't have gray hair. I believe NMRA membership has fallen considerably since I first joined in the 1980s. Same with magazine subscriptions. Hobby shops close because people are buying model railroad products, but doing it online rather than in person. Yet I suspect there are many folks out there who are model railroaders, but who just aren't counted because they aren't members of anything or magazine subscribers. They get their equipment and information online. They are into areas that maybe aren't considered "mainstream" model railroading - garden railroading, three-rail scale, etc.
One factor in the appearance of the hobby dying is the "Bowling Alone" factor. "Bowling Alone" was a book that came out a while back, dealing with how younger people aren't "joiners" like their parents or grandparents were. The author used the example of bowling - more people go bowling each year than ever before, but they aren't joining leagues. Young folks don't want to commit to being somewhere doing something for 33 weeks straight, they just want to go once or twice a month with their friends. Same holds true for many societies, fraternal organizations etc.
I'm sure there's something similar in railroading. I belong to several railroad historical societys; each time they report on the membership, it's gone down. Conventions have fewer and fewer people who don't have gray hair. I believe NMRA membership has fallen considerably since I first joined in the 1980s. Same with magazine subscriptions. Hobby shops close because people are buying model railroad products, but doing it online rather than in person.
Yet I suspect there are many folks out there who are model railroaders, but who just aren't counted because they aren't members of anything or magazine subscribers. They get their equipment and information online. They are into areas that maybe aren't considered "mainstream" model railroading - garden railroading, three-rail scale, etc.
The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners" so much that our society is structured more around individual vs. group activity by its arrangement, whether geographic (spread-out auto suburbs where people deliberately drive to things vs. denser walking neighborhoods where people interact casually on the street) or informational (TV & Internet vs. movie theaters & public gathering spaces) resulting in cultural change just because there are fewer opportunities to bowl (or model railroad) with a group, and more challenges to getting there. But as you point out, while memberships in railroad historical societies and club layouts, magazine subscriptions, and convention attendance are down, participation on Internet & social media forums (like this one) are up, because people (especially people who don't have gray hair yet) communicate the same sort of information in different ways! So they're (we're) still model railroaders, they (we) just gather in different ways. And for many of us, the appeal of model railroading was that it's generally a solitary hobby. Meanwhile, even though my generation (Generation X) weren't joiners, subsequent generations like the Millennials and GenZ are avid joiners and socializers; they just do it differently but with no less enthusiasm.
The demise of model railroading is often overblown, in part because people tend to drop out of the hobby in their late teens through early thirties--pursuing careers, education, romance, and more exciting forms of recreation tend to take over our brains at that point in our lives. Then when we start to slow down a bit, we often rediscover our old hobbies, whether in our mid-thirties or after retirement. That's what happened with me--and while I did join a couple of railroad museums and visited some club layouts, I didn't join any railroad historical societies or the NMRA, or get a MR subscription--I joined this forum (where I have received some excellent advice over the past nearly 20 years!) and others like it. It's not a one-way relationship, either--the forums become an informal club, and we still have the informal bull sessions that would have taken place at the hobby shop counter or the lounge at a model railroad club.
I definitely don't take the claims that model railroading is fading because of a troubled economy--model railroading emerged as an adult hobby during the Great Depression! The growing interest in micro layouts also addresses concerns about the lack of space for a layout; another nice thing about the Internet is that people can see how Japanese and European hobbyists have found room for model railroads in homes much smaller than a typical American apartment, let alone a house (which average about twice as large as they were in the 1950s!) and can also communicate directly with them, share advice and ideas. And advice on how to be a model railroader on a budget is always a favorite topic of discussion! In fact, I think part of why club layouts became popular in the 1930s-50s was because a lot of model railroaders didn't have room for a layout (especially when O was still the most popular scale) and a club was the only way to have a large and complex layout at all.
The advances of technology also help ensure the relevance of the hobby; when I got back into the hobby in 2003 I was amazed by how things like inkjet printers and laser-cut kits had dramatically changed scratchbuilding, but things like ubiquitous 3D printing and cheap/simple DCC, still kind of in their infancy then, are now everywhere. When chatting with a young friend about model railroading and trying to explain DCC, I just said "it's like having an Arduino microcontroller in your trains" and a light went on for him! This is a hobby for hackers, dating back to the origin of the term (look up the MIT Tech Model Railroad Club), that attracts people who want to use technology in new and creative ways, not necessarily to make a buck, but because it's fun!
chipset35 I wonder how many people with start with N Scale versus the larger scales just based on price?
I wonder how many people with start with N Scale versus the larger scales just based on price?
If it moves be it rail, sea, air, road, or whatever, someone will want to build a model of it. This started way long ago and will continue on most likely forever. The biggest problem we face is the demise of so many train and hobby shops....but things change: the internet and shows now are parmount for continuamce of our hobby.
In a New England antique and stuff store years back, I found a neat model of a covered wagon most likely built in the mid-19th century. It was quite well done.
The Milwaukee Road WarriorAlso, the neatest thing for me as a dad was giving my 10 year old first dibs on our first dcc locomotive. As much as I wanted to spring for a Milwaukee Road Walthers Proto F7 A/B kit, I let him decide what he wanted. Despite all of my immersion in the Milwaukee Road, he picked a Southern Pacific SD-45 Rivet Counter from Scale Trains. He really likes SP and Santa Fe *sigh*. Oh well!
Despite all of my immersion in the Milwaukee Road, he picked a Southern Pacific SD-45 Rivet Counter from Scale Trains. He really likes SP and Santa Fe *sigh*. Oh well!
There's still time to cut him out of your will, Andy.
wjstix It will level off; production is picking up, inflation is already declining. My guess is the hobby (and civilization) will survive just fine.
It will level off; production is picking up, inflation is already declining. My guess is the hobby (and civilization) will survive just fine.
It always has. I got back into the hobby in the late 1970s when stagflation became a word. Since then we have gone through multiple boom-and-bust cycles. The tech fueled bull market of the 1990s followed by the bubble bursting after 2000. We had the too-big-to-fail financial crisis later in the decade and then the pandemic.
I'm an avid golfer and as any golfer can tell you, when things are going good, you know it's going to end and when things are going bad, you think it's never going to end. So it is with the economy. All things, both good and bad, eventually come to an end. Enjoy the good times when you can and persevere through the bad times.
I got back into the hobby in 1977 when I got my first apartment with a spare bedroom for a small layout. Ever since then I have been reading periodically about the hobby's demise. If it is dying, it has to be the slowest death on record.
I'm not to concerned about it. I'll turn 71 in five days and have no doubt the hobby will survive a lot longer than I will.
Lots of interesting comments here.
Final notes from me: my dad and I were talking to one of the exhibitors who has been to many past Trainfests: she noted that the exhibition hall has a removable wall that closed off one-quarter of the room. Apparently the new folks running the show weren't sure what the turnout would be and played it conservative by only using 75% of the hall space. She said that based on what she'd seen last weekend she had no doubts that next year the entire floor would be used.
Also, the neatest thing for me as a dad was giving my 10 year old first dibs on our first dcc locomotive. As much as I wanted to spring for a Milwaukee Road Walthers Proto F7 A/B kit, I let him decide what he wanted.
Andy
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Milwaukee native modeling the Milwaukee Road in 1950's Milwaukee.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/196857529@N03/
I am just an average 31 year old. When I was a kid, my father had a plywood O gauge setup in our basement. He had signals, switches, some buildings and scenery. A few trees here and there, all just on a painted green sheet of plywood.
Now that my wife and I are about to move into a home with a basement and far too much room for the both of us, I figured why not try my hand at the hobby. I still have all of the O track and trains, but money being what it is nowadays, I am going to start an HO layout of my own. I'll save the O setup for an around-the-tree during the holidays. It's much easier to enjoy from afar.
I managed to find an old gent that was parting with his small layout and picked it up for a steal of a price. It'll get me going for sure and will be fun for years to come. I included some pictures of what I came across.
I'm just getting started in this hobby, it sure isn't dead for me!
richhotrain I think it was General Douglas MacArthur who once remarked, "Old hobbies never die, they just fade away". Rich
I think it was General Douglas MacArthur who once remarked, "Old hobbies never die, they just fade away".
Rich
I think it was Neal Young who once remarked, "it's better to burn out than to fade away".
Cheers
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
I'm not too worried about the cost side of the hobby anymore. I have settled on some ideas for future layout(s), now that we are settled in our retirement house. Comes down to shelf layouts with maybe a 4x6 attached for some train running. Possibly a Christmas O27 for DW's girlhood Marx set, and Free-mo module sets (one HO, one HOn3) that can mate with NCS&SS down the road.
Went through the stocks of kits that I brought with me and realized I had half a dozen road locomotives, but only need at most 1-2 road locomotives. A little short on switchers but Ebay took care of that issue - only need 1-2 switchers on a shelf layout.
The only reason left to buy a locomotive is one that is a better match for the imagined prototypes than what I already have. If I do buy one as a better match, I should be selling the one it replaces.
The same with cars - layout might hold at most 15 freight cars and 2 passenger cars. And I have more than that on hand already in either kits or RTR. Most cars and locomotives will need modification and painting/decaling, but there is enough operational for testing and pleasure while I work on building baseboard and laying track.
Fred W
....modeling foggy coastal Oregon in HO and HOn3, where it's always 1900....
There are fewer train shows in the ATL area than there were back in indiana, but I am surprised at the number of people attending who are younger than me. I am 59.
- Douglas
Indvivual interest in the hobby isn't tied to inflation. That's because it's a creative hobby and people will pivot to the affordable tasks like buildings and scenery and shift back to track and locomotives when their financial situation improves.
Sort of like an artist that paints...they won't stop painting...maybe in the worst case choose cheaper paints and mediums
The vendors on the other hand may struggle, but considering the market aggregation, individuals still have a lot to choose from, especially online.
Now that we have runaway inflation with ever higher interest rates, all hobbys will suffer and many vendors will either go out of business or have low stock.
IMHO, HO seems to be the strongest market of all the gauges, how I wish I had gone HO back in 2005, as my layout would be done since 2008, I would have spent less money and less frustration.
O Gauge became a niche market once the average price of locomotives was between $500 and $1500, and now even higher.
Whereas, when I got back into N Scale in winter 2020/2021, I was paying on average $100 for a DC locomotive and $130 for a DCC equipped one, with some exceptions such as BLI electric box cabs etc.
This year, it is a struggle for me to find DCC equipped N Scale locomotives for less than $150, but I can still buy complete high quality 11 car passenger sets for $400 or less, some with engines included. Even less if I buy seperately.
I notice HO is creeping up like O Gauge did.
One thing to remember, the baby boomer generation was the last "electric train" generation. I doubt newer generations make up even close to the market share they did. Thus, the writing is on teh wall for a eever increasing niche market at best.
All assuming everyone survives 2 more years of inflation, high prices for everything while getting less quantity, especially food.
nealknowsWe wanted to go to Trainfest, but held off due to new ownership. Based on some feedback, we’ll probably go next year.
I'd encourage you to go. It was a blast. The pictures I just uploaded to my Flickr acct don't really do justice to how busy the hall was last Saturday and Sunday, but give a good idea of what was there to be enjoyed. Saturday was very crowded, and Sunday was busy in the morning (before the Packers game lol), and thinned a bit by the time I left about noon.
The biggest revelation to me: S gauge is pretty awesome! If I weren't already so invested in HO I'd consider S.
Said this in similar threads, but the barriers to entry are space and time. I know plenty of people in my 30's age group that would love to build a layout. Money isn't always a problem depending on the initial vision but having a dedicated space. Home ownership is coming later in life and it sometimes takes a few years after that to plan out a space. Anyone I know with kids doesn't really have time but will get small starter kits.
I've been fortunate to have a 2000 sqft basement in my condo building no one uses so I can make a big mess and build train stuff. But I haven't settled on anything permanent. Just a small 4' X 12' bench layout for testing and staging and about 150 buildings and 30' of elevated 4-track viaduct in storage that will Someday be set up...hopefully.
kasskaboose I can only speak about the Greenburg train show in VA's demographics. There is a sizeable mix of folks there. If a reflection of the hobby, it's changing far more than dying.
I can only speak about the Greenburg train show in VA's demographics. There is a sizeable mix of folks there. If a reflection of the hobby, it's changing far more than dying.
I can second that, the Greenberg shows I attend here in Virginia are VERY well attended, so the interest is still there.
Besides, train show are a HELL of a lot cheaper to take the family to than movies or ball games!
My club, the Virginia Train Collectors, has a show coming up this weekend in Midlothian VA, that's in the Richmond area. Here's the clubs website for those interested. Look under "Events."
https://www.vatraincollectors.com
Or go over to the Classic Toy Trains Forum and check the thread "There's A Train Show Coming!"
And for a real pessimism-killer, search "YouTube Model Railroad Videos." You'll be amazed!
If we think about it, the hobby isn’t shrinking, there’s more things for both young and old to do. Back in the 70’s when I worked in the hobby shop, you had trains, plastic models, slot cars, planes which were u-control or R/C and a small amount of folks doing R/C cars. Now, we have other things like video games, drones and more.
So while we think it’s at the end of the tracks, it’s not going away any time soon. The hobby as evolved with better trains, more electronics and more.
I sell at both the NJ Greenberg shows and the Amherst Show. We see both older folks and younger ones, and they have money to spend! The younger ones or the ones in their late 20’s or early 30’s are enjoying the hobby like their fathers or uncles or whomever they were around when they were little…
We wanted to go to Trainfest, but held off due to new ownership. Based on some feedback, we’ll probably go next year.
Enjoy the hobby – I know I do!!
Neal