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Could this be why turnouts are not available?

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  • Member since
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Could this be why turnouts are not available?
Posted by hardcoalcase on Sunday, September 19, 2021 12:38 PM

I saw a business news item today with a chart showing Container shipping price indices.  The indices were generally stable in the $2000 to $3000 range from 2011 through 2019, then shot up to a current $11,000, ouch!  One would conclude that whichever entity is paying the freight (the manufacturer or wholesaler), they can't afford to do business with these shipping rates.

Jim 

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Posted by gmpullman on Sunday, September 19, 2021 12:45 PM

Supply chain has been a mess.

Jason Shron at Rapido has made reference to this. I believe Rapido has four, maybe five* products that are still "on the water" awaiting landing.

(* I just reread the newsletter. There's actually a dozen products that have left the factory and have not arrived in a N.A. port)

The new normal —

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Posted by 7j43k on Sunday, September 19, 2021 2:03 PM

Train stuff is pretty high-value cargo, so the shipping costs have less of an impact than for low-value.  Imagine how the folks feel who ship produce in refrigerated containers.

You can put, very roughly, 33,000 pieces of HO rolling stock or locomotives in a container.  The increased shipping cost per unit is 26 cents.  That's figured by volume.  I ran it also by weight (for a locomotive), and it's (again) very roughly the same as for volume.

 

I suspect the problem is getting a container for your product AT ALL.  

If I owned a container, I just might raise my rental rates to help out my retirement fund.

 

I don't think this is "the new normal".  I think it's temporary, while the world adjusts itself to Covid.

 

 

Ed

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Posted by BATMAN on Sunday, September 19, 2021 2:44 PM

In one article I read, one company stated rates for a container from China went from $4600.00 to $26000.00 almost overnight and have settled down a bit to around $15000.00.

I have owned containers in the past and received a guaranteed 15% minimum return and actually got about 18%. You can also own railcars for lease. Like anything, it is something you need to understand before going in. If I was a lot younger I would be looking at that industry a lot closer. 

Brent

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Posted by John-NYBW on Sunday, September 19, 2021 3:23 PM

When I order something from Amazon, if the expected delivery is more than a week, I figure it is coming from China and don't bother buying it. Haven't had to buy any MR stuff lately so this supply chain thing hasn't affected me.......so far. 

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Posted by Lastspikemike on Sunday, September 19, 2021 5:50 PM

There's a shortage of ships. Shipping companies idled some of their fleets last year not anticipating that trade volumes would increase rather than decrease due to the pandemic.  Shipbuilding has consolidated and total new tonnage  built has not kept pace with demand (this is not unusual). Unloading has slowed dramatically both at docks (container ports) and through shortages in surface mode transhipping.

Ships with full containers can't unload fast enough. Those ships sit at anchor if arrived and sail more slowly if still at sea. It's cheaper to keep moving on the ocean than to sit at anchor (demurrage can be expensive). Empty containers pile up because there is no capacity to return them to where they're needed. At port of Los Angeles there are 65 ships currently at anchor waiting for a loading berth to take off the containers,  this is apparently a record. Multiply that by the average TEU and divided by 2 gets you an estimate of how many full 40' ocean going containers are in effect idle floating warehouses.

This is pretty much all due to covid regulation as much as the effect of the illness itself. Far more problems have been created by keeping well people from working than from the illness keeping people from working.

We cannot ever recover the loss of productivity. The supply chain issues will resolve themselves probably through higher pricing reducing demand.

Alyth Yard

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Posted by davidmurray on Monday, September 20, 2021 9:28 AM

Perhaps it is time for ssome North American companies to bring production facities home!

David Murray from Oshawa, Ontario Canada
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Posted by rrebell on Monday, September 20, 2021 10:19 AM

I saw this coming and bought acordingly. Also a lot of the delay is getting workers. On the west coast area I live In and Out fast food has starting saleries as high as $21 and no one else can find employees either.

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Monday, September 20, 2021 1:54 PM

davidmurray

Perhaps it is time for ssome North American companies to bring production facities home! 

Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher.

Rio Grande.  The Action Road  - Focus 1977-1983

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Posted by azrail on Monday, September 20, 2021 2:58 PM

Atlas used to make its track here...and there is always Mexico.

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Posted by Lastspikemike on Monday, September 20, 2021 6:14 PM

I was at Ikea today to buy shelves for the train room. No Ivar shelves of any description.  A month ago there were hundreds in stock. University students furnishing residence rooms or apartments maybe? If Ikea supply chains are getting disrupted we are in trouble, deep trouble. 

Alyth Yard

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Monday, September 20, 2021 6:17 PM

The shelves are full at Home Depot.

All of the Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas seasonal items are already on hand.

There is no evidence the sky is falling.

-Kevin

Wink Happily modeling my STRATTON & GILLETTE RAILROAD. A Class A line located in a personal fantasy world of semi-plausible nonsense on Tuesday, August 3rd, 1954.

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Posted by NittanyLion on Monday, September 20, 2021 6:43 PM

riogrande5761
Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher.

Or it might not make a difference at all.  I know people who work in US manufacturing, making stuff in the US, out of components made in the US.  Except their boxes are printed overseas, so they can't ship in the first place.

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Posted by dti406 on Monday, September 20, 2021 8:56 PM

Ikea had a couple of hundred containers on that ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal. Who knows if they have ever been released.

Lastspikemike

I was at Ikea today to buy shelves for the train room. No Ivar shelves of any description.  A month ago there were hundreds in stock. University students furnishing residence rooms or apartments maybe? If Ikea supply chains are getting disrupted we are in trouble, deep trouble. 

 

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 2:12 PM

NittanyLion
 
 
riogrande5761
Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher. 

Or it might not make a difference at all.  I know people who work in US manufacturing, making stuff in the US, out of components made in the US.  Except their boxes are printed overseas, so they can't ship in the first place. 

Not according to people like Jason Shron of Rapido.  If there was no difference in production costs her vs. China, then why isn't more being produced here?  Seems like a no brainer.  

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 2:13 PM

dti406
Ikea had a couple of hundred containers on that ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal. Who knows if they have ever been released.

From what I read, that was all settled.  

Rio Grande.  The Action Road  - Focus 1977-1983

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Posted by Lastspikemike on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 2:18 PM

Remarkably, Ivar is made in Sweden from sustainably grown softwood. How they do this so cheaply is a mystery.

Alyth Yard

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 3:15 PM

--
How they do this so cheaply is a mystery.

No mystery, for over twenty years nearly the entire Ivar line has been made in China or Vietnam.

Pretty much the last Ikea hard line furniture products available in North America and manufactured in Sweden are the Billy and Malm series.

Lots of upholstered products are also made in Sweden, but the number of Swedish country of origin SKUs are falling.

Everything is still designed in Sweden, but manufacturing has been shifted to the developing economies of the world. That is why they use the phrase "Ikea Design And Style" or something like that now.

-Kevin

Wink Happily modeling my STRATTON & GILLETTE RAILROAD. A Class A line located in a personal fantasy world of semi-plausible nonsense on Tuesday, August 3rd, 1954.

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Posted by kasskaboose on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 3:46 PM

Perhaps the shipping costs are one reason, but I doubt it is the only one.  What about lack of supply?

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Posted by NittanyLion on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 4:12 PM

riogrande5761

 

 
NittanyLion
 
 
riogrande5761
Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher. 

Or it might not make a difference at all.  I know people who work in US manufacturing, making stuff in the US, out of components made in the US.  Except their boxes are printed overseas, so they can't ship in the first place. 

 

 

Not according to people like Jason Shron of Rapido.  If there was no difference in production costs her vs. China, then why isn't more being produced here?  Seems like a no brainer.  

 

I was referring to shortages and disruptions. There's no way to fully insulate your product from the global supply chain. 

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Posted by wjstix on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 4:31 PM

Lastspikemike
At port of Los Angeles there are 65 ships currently at anchor waiting for a loading berth to take off the containers, this is apparently a record.

According to a CBS Evening News story yesterday (9/20), containers are also piling up on the docks - stacked six or seven high. The report said the big issue in L.A. is a shortage of trucks and truck drivers - they just can't move the stuff out as fast as it's coming in.

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Posted by Lastspikemike on Tuesday, September 21, 2021 6:11 PM

SeeYou190

 

 
--
How they do this so cheaply is a mystery.

 

No mystery, for over twenty years nearly the entire Ivar line has been made in China or Vietnam.

 

-Kevin

 

Before you contradict me at least get your facts straight first. You just can't resist for more than a day. Sad really.

I am now actually looking at the UPC sticker on my Ivar shelving unit I just bought here yesterday direct from the IKEA store. Picked it out myself. 

                               Made in Sweden

All of the other Ivar shelves I bought recently say the same thing:

 

                               Made in Sweden

 

How do they do it? I know they grow a lot of softwood for lumber but they also manufacture this product, not just cut and mill the logs. 

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Posted by CSX Robert on Thursday, September 23, 2021 8:47 PM

riogrande5761

 

 
davidmurray

Perhaps it is time for ssome North American companies to bring production facities home! 

 

 

Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher.

 

Would you be willing to pay the higher prices if it meant that you could actually buy them?

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Posted by CSX Robert on Thursday, September 23, 2021 8:58 PM

Lastspikemike

Remarkably, Ivar is made in Sweden from sustainably grown softwood. How they do this so cheaply is a mystery.

 

Don't you have to assemble them yourself?  I don't think there's much manual labor involved with manufacturing shelving and that's were the biggest savings is when having stuff made in China.

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Posted by Lastspikemike on Friday, September 24, 2021 8:07 AM

The frames are nicely tenoned together. The lumber is finger jointed. The shelves are blocked and edge glued. Yes, probably mostly computerized machinery is used to manufacture.

In the NW USA there is, or was, a furniture maker doing similar things with red alder which is otherwise a junk wood. Quite nice stuff.

Of course, the Danes got all this started using machinery to mill industrial pallets and crates coming out of the Far East. That junk wood was the how highly prized old growth teak. Full of natural silica and heavy oils the wood was not originally commercially valuable. A few sailing ships were built entirely of teak.....

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Friday, September 24, 2021 12:18 PM

CSX Robert
 
riogrande5761

 

 
davidmurray

Perhaps it is time for ssome North American companies to bring production facities home! 

 

Sounds good at face value but domestic production costs would cause the turnout prices to be much higher.

 

 

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Friday, September 24, 2021 12:22 PM

riogrande5761
Looks like we'll be paying higher prices regardless.

When I bought my "lifetime supply" back in March, 2020, it was cheaper in 5 packs than 25 packs from MBK, only $18.49 for five pieces. I bought 50 pieces, which should be twice what I actually need.

Suddenly, buying lifetime supplies of everything back in 2017-2020 seems like it was the right decision.

-Kevin

Wink Happily modeling my STRATTON & GILLETTE RAILROAD. A Class A line located in a personal fantasy world of semi-plausible nonsense on Tuesday, August 3rd, 1954.

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Friday, September 24, 2021 12:24 PM

Your saying Atlas flex was $8.49 for 5 pieces?  That comes out to about $1.70 per piece.  I don't think it even sold for that years ago.  Are you sure?  I recall mail order prices for Atlas flex more like 2 and change some 20 years ago.

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Friday, September 24, 2021 12:26 PM

riogrande5761
Your saying Atlas flex was $8.49 for 5 pieces?

I missed the "1" when typing. I fixed my original post, but I was too slow for you not to catch it!

Laugh

-Kevin

Wink Happily modeling my STRATTON & GILLETTE RAILROAD. A Class A line located in a personal fantasy world of semi-plausible nonsense on Tuesday, August 3rd, 1954.

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