IRONROOSTER Well, like others I buy/collect for my own enjoyment. Prices seem to vary a lot for older stuff. At train shows I see Tyco for $2 to $20 for run of the mill freight cars. MDC is frequently $5 for NIB kits but can go up to $20. Wood car kits also run $5 and up. I don't know that value has been declining since there never was much value outside of brass and 3 rail trains. But there are fewer older kits NIB. And a lot of the older wood car kits don't match today's rtr or resin kits for detail so they aren't as valued. The old Quality Craft kits are fun, but when the directions say to bend a piece of wire for the door handle you know the detail level is lower than today. Also the older kits favor the steam era. While there is still interest in the 50's transition era, old eras like 1895 - 1915 and 1920 to 1939 seem to be less favored than before. The diesel eras seem to be growing more and more. Paul
Well, like others I buy/collect for my own enjoyment. Prices seem to vary a lot for older stuff. At train shows I see Tyco for $2 to $20 for run of the mill freight cars. MDC is frequently $5 for NIB kits but can go up to $20. Wood car kits also run $5 and up.
I don't know that value has been declining since there never was much value outside of brass and 3 rail trains. But there are fewer older kits NIB. And a lot of the older wood car kits don't match today's rtr or resin kits for detail so they aren't as valued. The old Quality Craft kits are fun, but when the directions say to bend a piece of wire for the door handle you know the detail level is lower than today.
Also the older kits favor the steam era. While there is still interest in the 50's transition era, old eras like 1895 - 1915 and 1920 to 1939 seem to be less favored than before. The diesel eras seem to be growing more and more.
Paul
There are several factors at work regarding this question of declining values in the secondary market.
One factor, not always understood or considered, is somewhat mathmatical in nature. And it also effects the manufacture of new products as well, and is a major factor in the current "need" for the preorder system.
We often hear "the hobby is dieing". I think not. But the hobby is "thinning out and spreading out"
This is a little involved, I will try to be succinct.
How many model railroaders/model train collectors are there? How many were there 50 years ago?
If in fact the hobby is declining in terms of a percentage of the population, we might assume that the actual number of modelers may have stayed relatively level over that time.
Maybe 1% of the 1950 US population, or about 1.5 million people.
And if we then break down their interests in terms of eras of prototype operation, and to keep it simple, consider each decade an era, and start at 1900, than we can exstrapolate a few things.
We know some eras will automaticly be more popular, but for now let's assume that interest is fairly evenly divided among the available eras.
So in 1950, there would have been only 5 eras to choose from, or about 300,000 modelers in each era.
By 1980, there would be 8 eras competing for those same 1.5 million modelers, or about 187,500 modelers per era, dramaticly lowering interest and demand for the products associated with each era.
By 2019, we would now be at nearly 12 eras, lowering the number of modelers to only 125,000 per era modeled.
But in 1950, or 1960, or even 1970, a much shorter list of models were produced in great numbers for that 300,000 modelers in each era.
Combine all this with a wider selection of models, covering all these eras to some degree, the demand for any one model, produced today, or 50 years ago, is greatly reduced.
Even if the total number of modelers has increased, it does not appear to have kept pace with the poplulation growth, and thereby stands no chance to keep pace with the ever increasing number of possible prototype items with each new era.
And even if the number of modelers has kept pace in terms of a percentage of the population, 1.5% of the current 330 million people in the US, divided by the 12 available eras, still means a decline in the number of modelers per era, 225,000 now compared to 300,000 in 1950.
And again, the availablity of a wider selection today, consumed by a smaller number of people, makes the demand for any one item, old or new, an exponentially declining number.....
So despite quality or detail, there was likely three times the demand for EMD F7's in 1960 then there is today, used or new.
No wonder used prices of all this stuff are falling like a rock.
Even brass and expensive craftsman kits. Even once considered untouchable LIONEL.
Sheldon
Oh there are more model railroaders than ever, but like you said the percentages have junt not kept up (too many other hobbies to compeat with). The model railroading hobby may lose a bunch of engines (for example) here or there but the shere volume of new stuff far outstrips the loses so the new stuff compeats with the old to some extent. I personally use a lot of Pre-Size stuff but it compeats with itself in they used to be Model Dynamics, GLR and other names.
Good morning all,
This is an interesting discussion. While Standard Gauge and O gauge Lionel are my main focus, I do have a small EZ track HO layout "in progress". Today is a buyer's market for almost anything Lionel, but I do not see myself as a collector any more. I view my situation as a caretaker for this generation and hopefully when they blow the whistle for me the last time, the trains will go to a home of someone who will appreciate them as much as me. I hope everyone has a good day.
Keep on training,
Mike C. from Indiana
Yes, supply of "collectables" has increased.The other reason for low prices is stagnant wages since the 70s. (adjusted for inflation)
Disclaimer: This post may contain humor, sarcasm, and/or flatulence.
Michael Mornard
Bringing the North Woods to South Dakota!
Few specific comments about the valuations of HO brass models:
In the case of Overland Models diesels, "most" of which in later years were made by Ajin Precision, in Seoul, when the model in question has a later run, the earlier runs do drop in value. This is partly due to the fact that the late runs (2006--on) have Digitrax dual mode decoders, lights, installed window glass, more interior details (more cab details and see through radiator components modeled inside), minor corrections to exterior details (corrected door handles, for example, on Alco/MLW Centuries) and much better factory paint jobs and lettering.
Do I as a buyer "want" all those features? Of course I do. However many of those models are in quantities as low as 6 units of a given paint scheme and road number, and can be all but impossible to find.
The earlier versions have no dcc decoder at all, and are definitely not dcc ready. That for some makes a difference in desireability.
The earlier versions tend to sell currently for several hundred dollars less, especially if unpainted, and I can forgive things like incorrect Alco door handles (Late RS handles on a Century) on the long hood for that lesser price--except that till my painter paints it, it may end up costing more than the late version would cost (if one could actually find them).
Anything with drive through fuel tank is worth less, because that was not the best mechanism, and is known to run noisily. The tower gear drive models generally perform better. Some people have converted the drive through fuel tank versions over to tower gear drive, so one has to be careful to check what is what.
John
Hmmm... It seems the price of a Brass Lambert 103W Tank Car on ebay has jumped from 50-75 dollars six months ago to 175-225 recently.
.
That is unusual. There have been plenty for sale. I wonder what is going on there.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
SeeYou190 Hmmm... It seems the price of a Brass Lambert 103W Tank Car on ebay has jumped from 50-75 dollars six months ago to 175-225 recently. . That is unusual. There have been plenty for sale. I wonder what is going on there. . -Kevin .
There are times when some sellers attempt to corner the market on a given model.
It is also possible the seller determined that they were pricing them "too low" and they were selling "too quickly" so increased the price as they got down to the last ones.
With Ebay you never know what is going to happen. I've listed legitimately rare, legitimately awesome pieces for good starting bid prices - well below my cost - and the models failed to generate any bids. Other times I listed models I didn't think were anything special and they went for far more than I had invested.
What is hot right now? Modern TTX 60' Hi Cube boxcars, especially the Athearn ones. Some sellers are getting more than 4 times MSRP and people are buying at that price, despite the fact that more are on the way from China.
Exactrail 50' PS 5277 waffle side boxcars in original Southern Railway paint, especially if they have the wheel to open the door can bring several times the original MSRP, depending on the day. Somebody is buying them.
PRR8259With Ebay you never know what is going to happen. I've listed legitimately rare, legitimately awesome pieces for good starting bid prices - well below my cost - and the models failed to generate any bids. Other times I listed models I didn't think were anything special and they went for far more than I had invested.
Sometimes with Ebay it comes down to luck on who happens to be looking when your item is up for sale. What didn't bring enough this week could sell for way more the next. The converse is also true. If something is going too high, sometimes the next week I will find it for an incredible deal because nobody happens to be looking.