BLI is running the Pennsy M1 series again in 2011. So far, the 9000's are slated for March, but we'll see. GS's are being uncrated as I type. Q2 second run is on the boat.
Crandell
WhenDad was around, he did Heat-Transfoer work for Rolls-Royce and contract companies therein. When planning a schedule, they joked that they would figure how much time it should take, multiply by 4, and move to the next highest counting. That was your optimistic date of delivery, and it worked for cost to.
So, if a model would take 6 months to do, then you multiplied 6*4=24, and moved up a measurement. You quoted to your customer 24yrs.
---
For my money (LITERALLY) I don't often pre-order, only because I can't assure cost at time of arrival, and it's not that big a deal to me. And if it is that big a deal to me, then I might well reserve it. To date, I pre-ordered the BLI Daylight because getting a free Observation was worth it. And I may reserve me the Diner and a trio of the Combines since we have NO ACF combines in this world and I need something for the NYC James Whitcomb Riley and I'd like to use one for the CB&Q Silver Salon. But that's all because it's worth it to me, not for anything else.
Let's not forget something too, everyone dishes on BLI for missing te 9000 class, and the GN any Northerns, but how long did it take them to blow through the NYC Hudsons? The Bluelines, the Big Boy, the Q2, the Centipedes, heck, they got three runs out of those. Sure, they have a history of vapourware product. But they also have quite a bit that HAS been produced.
-Morgan
andrechapelon I see a business opportunity here. There seems to a huge market for crying towels. We can give an MSRP of $500 knowing that we can wholesale them for $2.50/ea and that a discount retailer could sell them for $7.99 Of course, we'll need pre-orders. Andre
I see a business opportunity here. There seems to a huge market for crying towels.
We can give an MSRP of $500 knowing that we can wholesale them for $2.50/ea and that a discount retailer could sell them for $7.99
Of course, we'll need pre-orders.
Andre
Will those pre-orders require a cash down payment towards the MSRP of $500?
How many pre-orders will you need to actually produce the towels?
How many do you think will pre-order at full MSRP, knowing that IF it gets produced , them may find it on the discounters shelves at the far lower price if they just hold out and pray?
What liveries will these Crying towels be produced in?
Will they be DCC with sound towels?
When will they be released? Dec 2011 0r April of 2012?
Will there be delays in getting the orders out- so we ill have to wait to Nov 2012?
{tongue-in-cheek:}
Laugh and have fun if you will, but it could get ugly if the only way to get any loco is to pre-order, pay high MSRP , get it only if there are enough orders, and wait longer to get yours than it takes to produce a real Genset Diesel loco for a real railroad that will pull real revenue producing service.
I see if real loco manufacturers invest in a new loco on drafting paper {or computer nowadays} and come up with drawings and mock up a model that they don't put a limit on how many orders they take from which railroads. No one tells BNSF they must purchase at least 250 of the newest beast or they won't produce any. I think I read somewhere that Any real loco manufacturer who delivers real locos will produce as few as fifty of a model as long as they have buyers to buy them. AND they send out sales reps to real railroads to let them know this item is coming and will do thus and so for their RR.
Where is the posting board for model locomotive pre-orders being taken for all modle locos to be produced by all manufacturers that I can peruse to determine which, if any I want to pay exhobitant MSRP and pay a deposit up front? Oh, I get it....Maybe I can find that on the webpage buried somewhere for each manufacturer's website...so now I go to Bachmann.com to see, Atlas.com to see, Athearn.com, sumoyakomoto.com, wingtongwongwangenterprises.com to find out IF my favorite 4-6-2 Pacific is to be produced sometime in the near future with a two year lead production time IF they get enough orders?
It might be better if all model train manufacturers went to making washing machines instead. Every home can use one of those and those break down and wear out, too. Then there would be no hobby at all.
Oh, I know...we go back to scratch building locos? tehn you wnat to start poducing your ouwn parts to build one or do you expect wingtongwongwangenterprises.com to manufacture wheel sets to build with? But only if they get enough orders for wheels.
{tongue-in-cheek}
-G .
Just my thoughts, ideas, opinions and experiences. Others may vary.
HO and N Scale.
After long and careful thought, they have convinced me. I have come to the conclusion that they are right. The aliens did it.
andrechapelon I know...I'm just having fun here... That was pretty obvious. It's just that we seem to be seeing some getting a little out of joint with the wailing here... Not to mention the gnashing of teeth. I see a business opportunity here. There seems to a huge market for crying towels. We can give an MSRP of $500 knowing that we can wholesale them for $2.50/ea and that a discount retailer could sell them for $7.99 Of course, we'll need pre-orders. Andre
I know...I'm just having fun here...
That was pretty obvious.
It's just that we seem to be seeing some getting a little out of joint with the wailing here...
Not to mention the gnashing of teeth.
I think we could corner the market...
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
andrechapelon blownout cylinder: Yep. I can see it getting to the point where it will be ALL pre-order...even scenery items......as the dollar bill/bottom line becomes the ONLY measurement wereby success is measured. Customers be d****ed....... ...you see, there is going to be a limit to how much pre-order a person can get away with...can you picture the above? Even ballast being pre-ordered? Because, well, it does cost money having this in inventory... Aw, come off it, Barry. You've got better business sense than that. The market for scenery items is actually bigger (in terms of the numbers of potential customers) than the entire model railroad market since other hobbies can use scenery items. OTOH, when you limit your market to the potential buyers of CNR E-10 2-6-0 kits in HO scale, you're really shooting for a very small customer base even if said market is potentially a little bit bigger than the set of CNR steam era modelers in HO scale willing to buy a CNR E-10 locomotive kit. We won't concern ourselves with whether or not said kits actually get built since revenue is generated solely by sale. Andre
blownout cylinder: Yep. I can see it getting to the point where it will be ALL pre-order...even scenery items......as the dollar bill/bottom line becomes the ONLY measurement wereby success is measured. Customers be d****ed....... ...you see, there is going to be a limit to how much pre-order a person can get away with...can you picture the above? Even ballast being pre-ordered? Because, well, it does cost money having this in inventory...
Yep.
I can see it getting to the point where it will be ALL pre-order...even scenery items......as the dollar bill/bottom line becomes the ONLY measurement wereby success is measured. Customers be d****ed.......
...you see, there is going to be a limit to how much pre-order a person can get away with...can you picture the above? Even ballast being pre-ordered? Because, well, it does cost money having this in inventory...
Aw, come off it, Barry. You've got better business sense than that. The market for scenery items is actually bigger (in terms of the numbers of potential customers) than the entire model railroad market since other hobbies can use scenery items.
OTOH, when you limit your market to the potential buyers of CNR E-10 2-6-0 kits in HO scale, you're really shooting for a very small customer base even if said market is potentially a little bit bigger than the set of CNR steam era modelers in HO scale willing to buy a CNR E-10 locomotive kit. We won't concern ourselves with whether or not said kits actually get built since revenue is generated solely by sale.
blownout cylinder Yep. I can see it getting to the point where it will be ALL pre-order...even scenery items......as the dollar bill/bottom line becomes the ONLY measurement wereby success is measured. Customers be d****ed....... ...you see, there is going to be a limit to how much pre-order a person can get away with...can you picture the above? Even ballast being pre-ordered? Because, well, it does cost money having this in inventory...
I agree....
Add a SERIOUS explative here (in bold, Italics, & a very loud crashing sound!!!!)
I wanted a Metra version, & put a hefty deposit down, I'm stupid too... I guess...
http://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?3,2132322
Chad
Who are you guys buying through that charges up front on pre orders? My dealer didn't charge me for my BLI Centipede order till his account was charged for the product to ship. Soooo, BLI isn't charging up front, which means your dealer shouldn't be either (though that is up to them I suppose).
EDIT TO ADD: I didn't mind the pre order so much since I didn't get charged for it till it shipped. I however hated the continuous delay in product shipment for the Cents (a year after it was suppose to ship). But since I didn't pay up front there was nothing I could complain about. I simply had my order in to help guarantee enough demand for a run (which turned out to be more than just one run, so good for BLI on that)
Though I can't speak for any other manufacturer/distributor, but if you're being charged up front then it's time to find a new dealer, or buy a competitors product.
galaxy This has been rather interesting conversation over many points of view falling into two basic points of view....those who agree with the pre-order and the following distribution system it entails, and those who do not agree with it.
This has been rather interesting conversation over many points of view falling into two basic points of view....those who agree with the pre-order and the following distribution system it entails, and those who do not agree with it.
I'm neither a big fan of the reservation system, nor am I strongly against it. It exists, and I understand the system. I choose to participate or not, depending on circumstances.
A fact will remain: for any hobby: there must be sufficient supplies available ready-to-buy on the shelves for experienced hobbyists or new hobbyists to purchase or there wouldn't BE any hobby. Some manufacturer{s} MUST put forth an inventory {at their expense} to choose from "off the shelf" to get people into the hobby, or keep them in the hobby, and to keep them wanting more,.
This is where we disagree big time, because we are really addressing two pretty different hobbies under the same umbrella. I'm coming from a hobby world where I seldom had a worthwhile hobby shop in most of the towns where I have been assigned. Getting strictly model railroad supplies was/is mail order (whether on-line or snail mail) for most of my time in the hobby. I devoured the small ads Model Railroader to see what was available, and what I could afford. Everything possible, especially tools, came from other sources like hardware and general merchandise stores. Essentially, my world is/was as pictured in Model Railroader and Model Trains in the '50s and '60s - combining and using everyday stuff with available reasonably priced kits to make a representation on my layout of the world I wanted to portray. That was a time when having a roster of 4-5 locomotives built from kits, 30 cars (also kit and scratch-built), and a 6x10 table layout was considered a pretty solid accomplishment.
From my perspective, if the latest and greatest RTR product imported from China happens to fit my era, region, and wallet - well that's nice and I partake. If not, I continue as I have been - making do with bottom end broken train set stuff, kits created by hobbyists for hobbyists, out-of-production kits that I can easily modify, mail order specialty items, and everyday materials. There really is a whole world of model railroaders who are not active participants in the Model Railroader "RTR acquisition of the month" program.
Until the early '50s, hobby shops as we know them didn't exist. Everything model railroading was mail order before the development of hobby shops. The hobby still existed, and even grew. The coming of assembled brass locomotives in the '60s slowly pushed locomotive building, whether from kits or scratch, into the background. Fewer and fewer articles on the subject would be seen in the pages of Model Railroader. I think the last article series on building a steam loco from scratch was in the mid '90s, so today's hobbyists can be excused from thinking such work no longer exists. Staple annual articles such as how to assemble your 1st wood structure kit, or building from cardstock have gotten much rarer. And despite the supplies of plastic car kits drying up, there has been precious little published on assembling their market replacements - resin kits.
Yes, there are many in the hobby that cannot imagine a world where they didn't buy (or could at least see before buying) what they wanted at their LHS. But as the LHS business model slowly gives way to a less costly distribution system, and the overseas plastic production enters its price-availability death spiral, those folks will have to change or leave the hobby.
just my thoughts and experiences
Fred W
You know Galaxy, I think that's what bothers me the most. The "ready Inventory" of years past just isn't so "ready" anymore in our modern times. Which is frustrating and dissapointing when trying to get back in to the hobby or break in for the first time and get things rolling.
The choice of some manufacturers to produce limited quantities based on an inaccurate demand (because it is based solely on immediate numbers and not future sales) is detrimantal to prolonged hobby logistics and support. It is hard to expand or grow your hobby when your every move is practically controlled by outside factors as to what you can get and when. I think this type of system will eventually cost the hobby a lot of potential revenues, customers and continued growth.
Branch Line Railways Corporation - sporadic service since 1980
And never the twian shall meet.
I have enjoyed the battering, or rather thebaNttering back and forth.
This is true of any hobby {each one a niche market in itself}, be it: jewelry making {thousands of beeds and "findings"}; scrapbooking {thousands of paper types/styles/designs and "embellishments"; Sewing such as quilting {thousands of material patterns, types fo matterial- ie cotton, cotton-poly blend, patterns for quilts, Etc}; automobile restoration {thousands of parts available or adaptable to restore or scratch build an auto.}
ANd lets NOT forget the tools of the trades for each hobby that must be relatively ready ata moments notice when needed for service use. SOme of which can cross-hobby and dual serve more than one hobby.
Without a ready inventory, the hobby itself would surely die if all had to wait for parts to complete their projects. AND certain hobbies may never get off the ground if the hobby materials were only manufactured based on a "wish list" from consumers as to what they want. And ready-inventories require a manufacturer to lay out design time, sample time, tooling time and production time all before they see a dollar of profit.
selector Not a single person reading this forum or any other forum "needs" anything any of the hobby, or any other hobby, manufacturers place before us, now or in the future. It is a game of sorts. If you want to play, play by the rules. In some ways we get input into the rules, but as part of a system of exchange, so do they.
Not a single person reading this forum or any other forum "needs" anything any of the hobby, or any other hobby, manufacturers place before us, now or in the future. It is a game of sorts. If you want to play, play by the rules. In some ways we get input into the rules, but as part of a system of exchange, so do they.
Point well taken!
Briefly getting back to an earlier comment directed at me -- no one holds my hand into the fire. I play the game my way with my available resources and accomplish the best I can with those resources to satisfy my desires with regard to either the hobby of MRing or my Jeep interests. In fact, this mode of operation makes it more enjoyable for me as I am challenged to accomplish with little or nothing what most in the hobby or Jeep world will just go out and pay for. I do a lot of my own fabrication and modification where costs or availability are not conducive to my funds or practicality of expense is off kilter with what can be done by oneself for way less.
I am however, truly dissapointed at what appears to be a huge reduction in available supplies and what appear to be some rediculously higher prices these days compared to what I was uded to back in the late 70's through the 80's and into the 90's. But.,as there is no way for me to influence or change that scenario, it is just something I will have to learn to accept and get used to MRing in a different fashion. I don't have to like it no matter the amount of convincing or arguementative discussion, so I just soldier on finding other ways to deal with my plans within the hobby.
I am glad that I had the foresight to save all my former supplies rather than dispense of everything and start from nothing again in these times. That would be a major setback and probably would have culminated in not re-entering the hobby at all.
Just my .02... I really try to avoid pre-ordering as many of you do. However I recently reserved a pair of the new atlas NE-6 Cabooses, so we'll see how it goes. Fortunately they don't bill you until they ship the items, but I still plan to avoid making these pre-orders in the future.
As an observer to this discussion, and so many others that attempt to reconcile disparate viewpoints about the hobby, I am always struck by the use of language. And behind that use of language are values and conclusions, or assumptions, maybe. I see words like "need", "have to", "we and they", and other examples suggesting that those uttering them are convinced that the hobby is an essential to their well-being. Like the government should regulate it as it often does utilities.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The entire hobby consists of items meant for diversion, and it is funded by diversionary income. These days, that wee beastie, that dust-mote under the great bed of the spending bedroom, is in very short supply. In order to survive, those providing the marketed items that we all love to call essential to our well-being have to be exceedingly careful about ensuring they have pensions in 20 years. The way to do that is to constantly adjust their business, and their business practices, to ensure this happens.
HaroldA I don't mean this to sound the way it will - well, maybe I do - but I don't preorder food, tools, cars, clothes, gasoline, or anything else I need to live, then why would I preorder my 'toys' regardless of what they may be? I don't even stay in hotels that precharge my credit cards for rooms weeks before I stay in them. Makes no sense to me to subsidize someone's poorly managed business model so I am in the camp that says, if it isn't on the shelf, then I don't buy it. I wish you all the luck in the world.
I don't mean this to sound the way it will - well, maybe I do - but I don't preorder food, tools, cars, clothes, gasoline, or anything else I need to live, then why would I preorder my 'toys' regardless of what they may be? I don't even stay in hotels that precharge my credit cards for rooms weeks before I stay in them. Makes no sense to me to subsidize someone's poorly managed business model so I am in the camp that says, if it isn't on the shelf, then I don't buy it.
I wish you all the luck in the world.
So how did you get to "poorly managed business model" from what you said? All the things you mentioned are produced in huge quantities. Model railroading is a boutique market in comparison. There aren't millions of potential customers. At best, for any particular item, the market can be measured in the thousands.
I live in Monterey, CA. Including surrounding towns within a 10 mile radius of where I live, there may be 40,000 customers for gasoline. Depending on driving habits and the need to commute, I would guess that people, on average, fill up their tanks about once/week. The average price of gas here is about $3.25/gal. I can't speak for others, but my average fill up costs me $30. Multiply that by 52 and I'm spending $1560/year to fill up the Corolla (which isn't the only vehicle I own). Multiply that by 40,000 and the estimated (an probably UNDERestimated) market for gasoline here is about $62,000,000/year. Gasoline's not a highly differentiated market like model railroading. You can get regular, mid-grade and supreme. Nobody's asking for gasoline as it appeared in 1948. Nobody's waiting with bated breath for the first release of SD70ACe gas and nobody's complaining that no one will manufacture gas appropriate for the early 20th Century, the market for which might be as big as 500 people (in HO scale).
It just boggles my mind that people can't get their heads around how small the model railroad market is even in the aggregate. In any given segment of that market, it's positively miniscule and when you further subdivide a segment (let's say Santa Fe, late steam/early diesel, it becomes microscopic even though Santa Fe is a relatively popular prototype).
Huff and puff all you want. It's not going to do any good. The numbers just aren't there for real mass production.
As I re-read the thread, I find two distinctly different complaints surfacing. The fixes and/or consequences are different.
1) Manufacturers' use of pre-orders to determine feasibility of a given project. A locomotive is announced, and may or may not be given a tentative production schedule and an estimated price. If enough orders are received, the project goes ahead, and a new, firmer schedule and pricing is put out. If enough orders are not received, the project is suspended indefinitely.
As far as I know only 2 importers use this system today - BLI and PSC. Both justify their use of the system because they are willing to make more obscure models where sales are not guaranteed. The business model also fits under-capitalized importers much better than other systems.
One drawback is that many of the pre-orders will be suspect because of the time between pre-order and delivery. Another drawback is that customers remember the first tentative schedule date, and are annoyed by the delay inherent in the decision-making process.
2) Importer X announces locomotive Y, with price C and scheduled delivery date D. Customers are highly encouraged to reserve their model in advance because production is limited. This is a very different situation than the first. The production decisions are already made. The importer has reserved a production window, and the quantity to be produced has already been fixed by contract between importer and manufacturer.
The importer is simply trying to sell out the production run before it arrives. I am not privy to the terms to dealers, distributors, and hobby shops but I am sure they have to put up some money with their orders. In the 1980s, the LHS tended to demand a deposit from the customers so he didn't have to front all the money. But that practice is pretty much gone.
The practice of reserving your model in advance came about from complaints in the days of brass, when a popular model would be swept from the dealer's shelves before a lot of people even knew the model had arrived. The idea of announcing production in advance in advertisements gave all a chance to reserve who wanted to. The importer and dealers benefited from the early sales, too.
The drawbacks to this model - which still exist - are schedule slips, models not being the quality implied in the advertisements, and inability to generate profitable impulse sales from stock on shelves.
Schedule slips are a fact in every industry and every aspect of life. 3 days ago, the IRS announced they were delayed in getting their computers programmed for the upcoming tax filings. Those of us who itemize will not be able to file our returns until late February at the earliest. Both Airbus and Boeing have/had delays in deliveries of their newest aircraft. The latest computer graphic cards are not available anywhere on announced available date. How many houses and buildings are completed on the promised date? How many of you keep to your planned dates in layout construction, or get your honey-do list done on schedule? Yet, locomotive importers are held to a schedule for which they don't even control large portions. Unfortunately, the human tendency is to use the optimistic schedule which assumes all goes right. The realistic schedule - which is usually ignored - takes into account the risks that not all will go well. Until you are willing to use a risk-loaded schedule, there will be delays.
I see quality not being up to snuff as the really ugly side of this business model, for which there are no good answers. It happens in consumer electronics all the time. It leaves bitter feelings on all sides, and often destroys companies.
3) Limited production has been with us since the dawn of the hobby. Batch production is the only practical way to produce for a small hobby with quickly saturated markets. But guessing how big the batch should be has always been problematic. Guess too big and you lose your shirt as a businessman/investor because you can't sell your inventory for what it cost you. Guess too small and you forfeit the very profitable impulse sales as there is no stock on the retail shelves to buy. Anybody remember the Wii shortages of a couple of year ago? Same situation, different industry. BLI and Life-Like caused a lot of problems by over-producing in their early Chinese locomotive runs. They had to blow out excess inventory at below dealer cost, costing them dearly in future orders from dealers.
One solution in recent years has been making multiple runs in relatively quick succession of successful models. This worked until production capacity limitations in China slowed the succession of subsequent runs. Blackstone made an initial small run of K-27s in HOn3 that proved to be more successful than they dreamed. But it took 2 years to get a second run done, even with their strong ties to Bachmann's manufacturer.
Again, the pre-order or reservation system was designed to allow the average Joe a chance to lock in a spot in the production of the model he coveted, as well as produce early money flow for the importer. The consumer response to limited runs seems very simple to me. If you really want the model, reserve one. If you are ambivalent, take a chance. If you have no need or desire for the model, don't buy it. Complaining about batch production is like complaining about rising prices. Actually going to low rate, continuous production would mean much higher prices as production efficiencies were lost, and a much smaller variety of models to choose from as production facilities are tied up in perpetuity.
off my soapbox for now
There's never time to do it right, but always time to do it over.....
Bottom line is that educating customers and setting realistic expectations is half the battle to making happy customers. That lesson is not learned by many businesses, who get stuck on promising the world in order to secure business. That practice encourages under-educated customers to make demands that can't be met, and ends with even more dissatisfied customers. Or in short, under-promise and over-deliver is the better way.
Realistic expectations? In this hobby? And even if the current "mass" producer manufacturers tried to educate people in what the realities are, how many are going to actually understand? Jason Shron of Rapido has already tried that in full page ad in MR. Didn't do a lot of good and quite frankly, I think Rapido or any other manufacturer would be throwing good money away to repeat that effort.
In one of your paragraphs, you mentioned PSC. In one of my posts, I mentioned USRA Heavy Pacifics, so let's get the two together. PSC is bringing out no fewer than 10 separate physical (as opposed to mere paint or road number) variants of the Erie K-5. Being brass, they're naturally small production runs (I'd be surprised if any particular variant will be produced with more than 10 pieces (since the total run is supposed to be 100). Interestingly enough, PSC has added variants to its original production plan. 'Course BrassTrains.com wants $1710 for each PSC K-5 you buy from them and I can already see someone throwing a tantrum about price gouging. After doing some pondering on what's involved in producing so many variants of the same engine, I'm inclined to believe that the $1710 price is actually pretty reasonable.
http://www.precisionscaleco.com/Erie%204-6-2%20K5.html
How many Erie K-5's could be sold if they were manufactured by BLI? For that matter, how many could Bachmann sell and at what price, especially since Bachmann's been pretty good about offering multiple variants of their steam locos? How many K-5 variants could they make in what quantities and keep the MSRP down to an average street price of $300-325 for DCC and sound and maybe $225-250 for DCC ready. This is a run of the mill moderate sized engine, guys, the kind that everybody says they want instead of the Big Boys, GS-4's, Allegheny's, Challengers, etc. It's also a good engine for freelancers who need a Pacific that's not a Pennsy K4.
The biggest misconception in this hobby is that "mass production" is mass production in the sense that automobiles, refrigerators, TV's etc. are produced and that model railroad manufacturers are large companies with very deep pockets. They're not. They're small companies, even miniscule by modern industrial standards. If they were publicly traded, they'd probably be too small even to be considered as "micro-caps" (i.e. those with a market capitalization of $50-300 million. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/microcapstock.asp ). Just for a comparison, Apple Inc has a market capitalization of $308 BILLION and cash reserves of nearly $26 billion.
Hmm. Apple and Precision Scale. If I sold enough Apple, I could have PSC build me 100 SP P-6's (multiple variants of course including T&NO). Ordering in bulk, I could probably get them for significantly less than retail. I only really want 1 myself, but it would actually be nice to have #'s 2453, 2454 and 2458 as they appeared in 1948. Let's say I'd have 97 left over for sale to others. I wonder how long it would take to unload them at $1700 or so apiece. In this case, you guys that want a UP or Alton version can pound sand.
The alternative, of course, is to take a similar amount of money and contact Bachmann or BLI with a proposal. My money, their tooling. Multiple versions of Harriman Heavies in plastic or die cast metal. I know Sheldon would take a 6 pack of the Alton version, especially since the engines would fit right in with the Atlantic Central. I'd reserve 3 for myself. That's 9 guaranteed sales. All I have to do is convince enough people to cough up the money for another 1491 - 1991 units on the initial run. What a deal. I do need to know how much the R&D and tooling will cost. Then there's the per unit manufacturing cost depending on quantity. I'd also need to figure out how many of each version to produce and I'd want to make several runs, but that would probably be determined by response to the first run (you know, the one where the bugs show up no matter how much you try to eliminate them).
In a truly just and caring world, Harriman Heavy Pacifics ought to sell like hotcakes. Having said that, it occurs to me that while either of the two scenarios above might have a faint possibility of being financially successful, I'd probably be making a better investment buying an IHOP franchise and and actually selling hotcakes. That way, I wouldn't have to ask for pre-orders (which I certainly would do for locomotives) and would, under normal circumstances, be able to deliver said hotcakes within a few minutes, well within the 3-4 week legal time limit proposed by an earlier poster. I'd have a much bigger customer base and there'd be a lot less aggravation.
Going back to the original post, I suspect there will be more delays of planned projects in the near future.
When Bader, the holding company for, and manufacturing arm of Bachmann, bought out Sanda Kahn (the other big Chinese plastic manufacturer), letters were sent to many small importers telling them Sanda Kahn would not be taking as many production contracts in the future. The belief was that Sanda Kahn was over-booked and couldn't meet their production schedules, and so future business would be reduced so that schedules and contracts could be met.
I am speculating as to the reasons for the production cutbacks at Sanda Kahn - but the letters to importers are real.
galaxy Nope, never said they did, but they have to abide by what customers will buy, how they will buy it and what they are wiling to pay or they won't be in business long. AND since there is such animosity built up amongst some of the crowd of MRRs, manufacturers have to abide by what the customer wants. ANd as more and more pre-orders come up as "failures" in the minds of the customers here, the less and less the "liking' of pre-order becomes will mean less and less production and product IF the manufacturers don't want to do it teh way the customer wnats it.
Nope, never said they did, but they have to abide by what customers will buy, how they will buy it and what they are wiling to pay or they won't be in business long. AND since there is such animosity built up amongst some of the crowd of MRRs, manufacturers have to abide by what the customer wants. ANd as more and more pre-orders come up as "failures" in the minds of the customers here, the less and less the "liking' of pre-order becomes will mean less and less production and product IF the manufacturers don't want to do it teh way the customer wnats it.
Your underlying assumption is that the profit motive will drive model train manufacturers towards exemplary customer service. With a publicly owned corporation where management has a real risk of getting fired for not chasing profits, that is likely true. For the smaller model train manufacturers, where producing for the hobby is a matter of pride and love as much as profit, some customers aren't worth the effort. You can see the divide in the hobby in both suppliers and customers.
But I suspect we're talking past each other. I don't deal very much with today's mainstream plastic model makers, and I doubt you do a lot of your business with the part time/full time hobbyists turned businessmen producing very small lots of parts and kits.
2} people do not want to wait a year and a half for a model train to reach their hands from date of pre-orders. WE are all spoiled brats and want it now.That is showing up more and more proven to be true.
Totally agree. Model railroad buyers have gotten much more demanding over the years. Patience over shipping times is just one indicator of the changes.
3} People who have pre-ordered and had the order scrapped {for whatever reason- maybe it wasn't a full o moon on production day to start} are not happy customers. Keep your customers happy and wea ll know that will translate into higher profits. Lessee now to recap: pre-order and wait is now the only way the hobby goes. How long will it last when manufacturers only take pre-orders; take all the money up front {at their higher MSRPs I might add}; Produce only if there are "enough orders" ; produce only when they "get around to it" ; and deliver Only when they feel like it, oh, and only distribute through select dealers. Then They charge you a high fee when something goes wrong with your product to fix it {there are no "recalls" on a model train}. How long do you think your hobby will last? Things that make you go hmm.
3} People who have pre-ordered and had the order scrapped {for whatever reason- maybe it wasn't a full o moon on production day to start} are not happy customers. Keep your customers happy and wea ll know that will translate into higher profits.
Lessee now to recap: pre-order and wait is now the only way the hobby goes. How long will it last when manufacturers only take pre-orders; take all the money up front {at their higher MSRPs I might add}; Produce only if there are "enough orders" ; produce only when they "get around to it" ; and deliver Only when they feel like it, oh, and only distribute through select dealers. Then They charge you a high fee when something goes wrong with your product to fix it {there are no "recalls" on a model train}. How long do you think your hobby will last?
Things that make you go hmm.
Again, I'm not seeing what you are seeing. Perhaps it's because I'm not panting for the latest paint scheme or new model from Acme MR Products. Bachmann doesn't do pre-orders. Neither does Roundhouse or Athearn with their locomotives (that I know of). Dealers may ask for a pre-order to sort of "guarantee" their order with the manufacturer, but that's a different story from the manufacturer basing a production decision on whether or not he receives enough pre-orders. Even Blackstone (HOn3) doesn't base their production decisions on pre-orders. Because the first run of Blackstone products are in such demand, a reservation is necessary to get something from the 1st run.
The company I do know of and deal with that does base production on pre-orders is PSC/MMI. But PSC usually leaks out how many orders they are short, and if not received in a few months, the project goes on indefinite hold. Like their HOn3 4-4-0. The On3/30 4-4-0 was converted from MMI to brass (at the higher price point) because MMI didn't get enough advance orders. But then all the PSC/MMI projects I have been interested in have gone on indefinite hold, so I'm not a customer yet.
The real deal with pre-orders I am familiar with is to reserve yourself a model in case the run sells out with the other pre-orders. I do pre-order under these circumstances if the model is one I particularly want.
Any manufacturer, whether motivated by profit, pride, or love, wants to deliver a quality product on the schedule promised. But many manufacturers are just as guilty of wishful scheduling as you are in assigning your "easily achievable" timelines. Assuming the optimistic schedule will actually be met is a guarantee of failure. So the schedule slips happen because it was assumed that everything would go as planned. Life just isn't that way.
In my work, before we give the client a schedule, we perform a risk analysis on the schedule. If the client insists on owning the schedule float (forcing us to the optimistic schedule), we charge extra for the extra risk - or refuse the contract. Schedule acceleration, when we believe it possible, costs extra. We don't sign contracts with terms we can't meet - losing money on a project is not smart business, and in the long run it hurts the client more than the vendor. Better not to even bid where we can't make a reasonable profit - and being privately owned we can get away with it.
my thoughts, your choices
fwright galaxy: Manufacturers who want to operate on a pre-order system for toy trains , need to realize a few things: Toy trains are not 787's or gensets;1} Produce WHAT you say you are going to produce-regardless of how many you get, or cancel within a reasonable amount of time [no more than 3-6 months and refund any up-front monies in cash immediately], 2} DELIVER WHEN you say you are going to deliver- {there is little that should get in the way of making toy trains...ROLLS Royce Engine failures for a 787 on the other hand...a good reason to delay some delivery until ironed out}- ALSO an EMD OR GE loco may take year and a half to two years to build a real one, why should a model take longer?-; and 3} produce extras for the shelves for additional sales by those who missed the preorder, or who like it after they see it and may want to buy it. I think there are far more likely "shelf sales" to go on for model trains than for 787's that may be laying around. Wow. I never would have guessed that manufacturers had to abide by rules laid out in a post on this forum.
galaxy: Manufacturers who want to operate on a pre-order system for toy trains , need to realize a few things: Toy trains are not 787's or gensets;1} Produce WHAT you say you are going to produce-regardless of how many you get, or cancel within a reasonable amount of time [no more than 3-6 months and refund any up-front monies in cash immediately], 2} DELIVER WHEN you say you are going to deliver- {there is little that should get in the way of making toy trains...ROLLS Royce Engine failures for a 787 on the other hand...a good reason to delay some delivery until ironed out}- ALSO an EMD OR GE loco may take year and a half to two years to build a real one, why should a model take longer?-; and 3} produce extras for the shelves for additional sales by those who missed the preorder, or who like it after they see it and may want to buy it. I think there are far more likely "shelf sales" to go on for model trains than for 787's that may be laying around.
Manufacturers who want to operate on a pre-order system for toy trains , need to realize a few things:
Toy trains are not 787's or gensets;1} Produce WHAT you say you are going to produce-regardless of how many you get, or cancel within a reasonable amount of time [no more than 3-6 months and refund any up-front monies in cash immediately], 2} DELIVER WHEN you say you are going to deliver- {there is little that should get in the way of making toy trains...ROLLS Royce Engine failures for a 787 on the other hand...a good reason to delay some delivery until ironed out}- ALSO an EMD OR GE loco may take year and a half to two years to build a real one, why should a model take longer?-; and 3} produce extras for the shelves for additional sales by those who missed the preorder, or who like it after they see it and may want to buy it. I think there are far more likely "shelf sales" to go on for model trains than for 787's that may be laying around.
Wow.
I never would have guessed that manufacturers had to abide by rules laid out in a post on this forum.
Take it another way:
1}the only way to get locos {or RR Cars} is to pre-order now {like the boeing example}.The product will only be produced if there are X numbers of orders, lets say 1000. If 999 orders come in. does the whole order get scrapped? over 1 loco? ANd all 999 must suffer?
2} people do not want to wait a year and a half for a model train to reach their hands from date of pre-orders. WE are all spoiled brats and want it now.That is showing up more and more proven to be true .{ FOr heavens sake, auto manufacturers can trun around a new model {admittedly perhaps on a previous platform base} in less than a year but a new interior or new exterior may need adjustments of placements of things. ANd they don't take pre-orders only with up front money on the next new 2012 "X" car" until they have the "X Car" ready for production, now do they? ANd The fashion industry can, in a six month period come up with entirely new fashions and sometimes new fabrics too and have them at market.}
I cannot imagine anything I want bad enough to order before it has been manufactured. Wait, not manufactured, but attempting to see if there is enough interest to manufacture it.
I don't care what it is.
Bob
Photobucket Albums:NPBL - 2008 The BeginningNPBL - 2009 Phase INPBL - 2010 Downtown
fantastic links, Andre....wow!!
The St. Francis Consolidated Railroad of the Colorado Rockies
Denver, Colorado
You ARE correct there. BUT {and it's a big one} BUT Boeing and EMD and GE actually deliver the pre-ordered items, and usually in a very timely manner of expected delivery date. IF, at any time necessary, a prospective purchaser on pre-order can usually GO SEE their product or the products being actually built to fill that/those orders. They are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for the product so a $1,200 round trip air fare and hotel to go see their products being produced is money reasonably spent.
Nice rant, but you're ignoring something. The post I was replying to stated that there should be a law that EVERYTHING anybody ordered (and there were no exceptions for anything) should be available within 3 to 4 weeks. That's an all encompassing statement and doesn't take into account any kind of lead time including design and tooling.
EMD and GE (as well as Boeing, Airbus, etc.) also deliver a fairly standardized product and they're often products that, even when "new", are improvements on prior existing products. The last time Boeing came out with an engineered from a blank sheet commercial aircraft (the 747), it almost went bankrupt. In any case, railroads and airlines order new equipment in multiple units not one at a time. No model railroader I've ever heard of orders new locos or cars in increments of 25-50 or more regardless of whether the tooling already exists or not.
All those who are ranting about vapourware items seem to forget that the model railroad market as a whole is quite a small market overall and is 'Balkanized" by scale, era and prototype. The age when (at least for HO) a generic Mantua 4-6-2 would do for everybody and essentially the same item is on the market year after year after year with maybe minor changes is gone. It ain't coming back.
As a manufacturer, you can sell to thousands of customers 1 at a time or you can sell to fewer customers with multiple units. The last place I worked had only 500 customers. Of those 500, the top 20 represented 80% of the business. How many units of a given model railroad item are you willing to buy to make it worthwhile for a manufacturer to produce something new?
Pennsy had 425 K4's. How many SPF's do there have to be to guarantee a manufacturer at least a like of amount of sales? And that's a popular railroad with a popular engine. I wouldn't take one at any price. If you gave me one, I wouldn't turn it down, but there's no price I'm willing to pay to get just one, let alone multiples.
Not being privy to the manufacturer's books, I don't know how big the demand would have be for something like, say, a Harriman Heavy Pacific to be produced to recover costs and make a small profit. For the sake of argument, let's say 1,000 units. For the sake of argument, let's also assume that this engine is engineered from the ground up. Let's also assume that people who don't model SP (including the T&NO), the UP and the Chicago & Alton (later part of the GM&O) might be a potential market for at least one example since it's roughly the size of a USRA light.
Here's pics of locomotives from all 3 roads that actually owned Harriman Heavies.
http://www.yesteryeardepot.com/SP2454A.JPG
http://www.yesteryeardepot.com/UP3114.JPG
http://www.railarchive.net/gmogallery/alton5294tb.htm
As built Alton engine: http://www.railarchive.net/gmogallery/ca658.htm
So, which one do we use as the basis of our model? How many tender variations do we make, if any? SP used Worthington BL FWH's on some of its coast line P-6's (until removed around 1952) and I've seen at least one pic for a T&NO P-6 with an Elesco. The Alton version shows a Worthington SA. To the best of my knowledge, the UP versions didn't use any FWH, You'll also notice that both the UP version and C&A versions have Boxpok mains. The UP version has an extended smokebox. Harriman Heavies were all built that way, but the SP and C&A shortened them. UP's engines weren't limited to either coal or oil fuel, but could burn either depending on a number of factors.
Now we're into the good stuff. UP used several different tenders on their engines (at least from pics I've seen). Some UP engines were equipped with Delta trailing trucks, although certainly not all. I've got a copy of Southern Pacifc Steam series volume 36 sitting in front of me. In order of appearance, I see pics of SP P-6 #2453 in 1947 equipped with what I believe is a 90R-1 (rectangular 9000 gal.) tender and no FWH. On the next page is #2454 in 1949 with a Worthington BL FWH and what may be a 120C-2 (12000 gal cylindrical) tender. That's followed by #2454 in 1953 with a 90R-1 tender (and no FWH since it was removed in 1952). The last coast line pic is #2457 (sent to T&NO in 1937) in 1936 with no FWH and what I think is a 100C-2 (10000 gal cylindrical) tender. The only pic of a P-6 in the T&NO section is #614 in 1941 with an Elesco FWH and a 100C-1 (?) tender.
So tell me. How many variations do we make and in what quantity for each? How many different tenders do we offer? If we want to tap the free-lance market, do we emphasize the Alton version and offer it with either a coal or oil tender? How many UP fans would buy one if we didn't offer the extended smokebox? Suppose we only made the Coast Lines SP engine with and without the Worthington FWH and with two tender variants (we'd be nice guys and make the tops of the oil bunkers removable for the solid fuel guys). How would that limit our market? It would probably be cheaper not to offer all the variants, but would that limit our market so much that we couldn't recover tooling costs let alone make a profit? Would we be blithering idiots for not taking advance reservations?
There are a lot of people out there who seem to forgot that there are a lot of questions that have to be answered before even bothering to start work on a new item.
BLI only makes the as built versions of the USRA light and Heavy 2-8-2's. Imagine the issues they'd have if they tried to make some of the variants (how many different variants of the NKP H-6 were there - FWH variants, tender variants, etc.?).
And, while we're at it, this is a USRA Heavy 4-6-2 copy: http://www.rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=800810
So's this: http://www.rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=312592
And so's this: http://www.billspennsyphotos.com/apps/photos/photo?photoID=74102842
All of them are Erie prototype. Which one will sell best?
galaxy Manufacturers who want to operate on a pre-order system for toy trains , need to realize a few things: Toy trains are not 787's or gensets;1} Produce WHAT you say you are going to produce-regardless of how many you get, or cancel within a reasonable amount of time [no more than 3-6 months and refund any up-front monies in cash immediately], 2} DELIVER WHEN you say you are going to deliver- {there is little that should get in the way of making toy trains...ROLLS Royce Engine failures for a 787 on the other hand...a good reason to delay some delivery until ironed out}- ALSO an EMD OR GE loco may take year and a half to two years to build a real one, why should a model take longer?-; and 3} produce extras for the shelves for additional sales by those who missed the preorder, or who like it after they see it and may want to buy it. I think there are far more likely "shelf sales" to go on for model trains than for 787's that may be laying around.
I never would have guessed that manufacturers had to abide by rules laid out in a post on this forum. Nor did I know that manufacturing toy trains was exempt from Murphy. And I certainly didn't know there were rules stating a manufacturer has to produce more than is pre-ordered. I doubt there is a single model railroad manufacturer who intentionally announces a project they will not produce. I do not believe anybody intentionally misses delivery dates, either.
Frankly, I much prefer being in the niche areas of the hobby, where cooperative relationships between supplier and customer are more frequent. In Early Rail, a cooperative effort was formed to increase the availability of accurate car kits. Those who pre-ordered got a good deal on the price. The outcome of the effort has been several manufacturers of resin kits for the early rail modeler.
Even in 3 rail O, cooperation with the manufacturers has resulted in models and paint schemes that would otherwise not have been produced.
Yes, pre-orders take trust and good faith by both sides to work. But even an airtight written contract in the end is only as good as the trustworthiness of both sides. Litigation and claims are never a good outcome.
The history of model railroad manufacturing has numerous failed or canceled projects. So do other manufacturing endeavors, including automobiles and aircraft. There was a cartoon in MR in 1950 lampooning the announced projects that never got off the ground. There was an editorial in the April 1982 MR about the problems with canceled projects. Back then, deposits were typically required so a canceled project had financial implications for the buyer. Because of those issues, very seldom are deposits required by buyers these days (retailers are a different story).
Don't pre-order, and your risk is that you will not be able to get your hands on the produced model at a similar price. Pre-order and your risk is that the project gets canceled due to perceived insufficient demand. You also have the option to deal with manufacturers that don't pre-announce products or that don't deal in pre-orders. I prefer a world with lots of options for me - and I have exercised all of them at one time or another in model railroading. I live with the consequences of my choices.
andrechapelon Not to get into some bickering match but I feel there should be a law that a manufacture should not be allowed to accept orders for ANYTHING that can not be delivered to the customers with in 3 to 4 weeks just to throw out a number. :Lessee. You'd kill the building of custom homes for people. The company I used to work for in the semiconductor equipment biz would go out of business because lead times on order to delivery could be as high as a year or more (EVERYTHING was built to order). Boeing (not to mention Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier) would be disallowed from accepting orders for aircraft and GE and EMD wouldn't be allowed to build locomotives since there is a long lead time for delivery as railroads and airlines generally order for anticipated needs, not for immediate replacement. In any case, Boeing, EMD and GE can't deliver within a 3 to 4 week time frame. Bath Iron works in Bath, Maine, which builds naval vessels would have to build ships in anticipation of a ship order from the Department of the Navy rather than building to a contracted order.
Not to get into some bickering match but I feel there should be a law that a manufacture should not be allowed to accept orders for ANYTHING that can not be delivered to the customers with in 3 to 4 weeks just to throw out a number.
:Lessee. You'd kill the building of custom homes for people. The company I used to work for in the semiconductor equipment biz would go out of business because lead times on order to delivery could be as high as a year or more (EVERYTHING was built to order). Boeing (not to mention Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier) would be disallowed from accepting orders for aircraft and GE and EMD wouldn't be allowed to build locomotives since there is a long lead time for delivery as railroads and airlines generally order for anticipated needs, not for immediate replacement. In any case, Boeing, EMD and GE can't deliver within a 3 to 4 week time frame. Bath Iron works in Bath, Maine, which builds naval vessels would have to build ships in anticipation of a ship order from the Department of the Navy rather than building to a contracted order.
Also, , EMD and GE Locomotive works usually have spent some money of their own in R &D to present plans on paper for their new pre-ordered product rather than just saying "we are gonna produce a new Loco, oh lets say, call it the L-1600, wanna buy some? and give us a $100,000 down payment sight unseen? with a delivery date of who knows when, maybe sometime by 2016? With no guarantee on that year either?" {Boeing and Airbus DID, I believe make an arbitrary pitch like that for their superliners, then when they had some interest in such a thing, went to the drawing board with their own R&D money to complete an acurate idea of their actual-to-be-produced planes that customers could pre-order from}
We, here, on the other hand, with model trains, have no idea what is going on in the time frame of our pre-ordered product, or that any funds collected in advanced aren't being used to manufacture, say widgets because widgets make more profits than toy trains, and our toy trains they'll produce "when we have a lull in making widgets".. AND we are highly unlikely to spend $1200 for air/hotel just to go see what is going on with our pre-orders of a $300 engine.
MAybe not. If I have spare few million lying around, I'll let you know when I'll buy that spare 787 Dreamliner Boeing made "just in case". More than likely I'll pick up a good B&O Mike off the shelves faster....
Phoebe Vet We all know that the Franklin Mint has proven that some people will pay any price for anything if you include a lithographed "certificate of authenticity" and call it a collectors edition, but I am not among those people and never will be.
We all know that the Franklin Mint has proven that some people will pay any price for anything if you include a lithographed "certificate of authenticity" and call it a collectors edition, but I am not among those people and never will be.
You got that right ! ! ! ....then they try to resell it on ebay a couple of years later and think everyone else should pay $129 for a 1:24 scale car because that's what it's "worth"....yeah, right.