This subject has come up on this board numerous times. I would like to put a little perspective on it.
Last week, I finally got around to cleaning up and organizing my train room. As part of that effort, I filed my old magazines by publication and date. I couldn't resist leafing through some of these old magazines. I ran across an interesting item in the November 1981 RMC. In the new product section, Magnuson announced the release of their Merchants' Row kit, made of cast polyester. The introducty price was $36.95. I wondered how that price compared to today so I found the same kit in the 2007 Walthers catalog (75th anniversary). It is now sold by Scale Structures Limited and been renamed Burlington Street and the MSRP is $49.95. Now I don't have any inflation data handy but I think there is no doubt that adjusted for inflation, that kit is cheaper now today. In addition, Walthers now sells a styrene version of that same kit for $29.98.
One of the things I had saved was the Walthers 50th anniversary catalog from 1982 so I decided to do some further price comparison's. I only wanted to compare like items. Here is a list of sample items.
Then Now
Magnuson Miner's Union Hall (now SSL) $25.95 $31.95
Atlas 3' NS Codel 100 flex track $1.50 $3.85
Atlas Connector, Twin, or Selector $2.50 $7.95
Kadee #5 2 pack #380-5 $2.55 $3.25
Kadee Coupler Gauge $3.40 $4.00
Kadee Bettendory Truck $4.95 $6.25
Instant Horizon Backdrops $7.95 $7.98
Woodland Scenics Smiley's Tow Service $18.49 $31.98
Campbell's Grain Elevator $24.95 $77.17
Heljan 3 Stall Roundhouse $34.98 $44.98
This is just a non-scientific comparison but I think gives a good idea of where we have come price wise. Locomotive technology has changed so much I didn't think I could make a valid comparison and I was unable to locate an exact match for any of the rolling stock. Companies and product lines have changed too much. Athearn BB would have been a good comparison but they are no longer listed in Walthers.
It seems from my own observation that most items are cheaper today when adjusted for inflation, some considerably so. A few seem to have kept pace with inflation.
That is a good observation. I found some old 1990 MRR mags, and they were considerbly larger, but the cost of mailing has gone up so much since 1990, that cuts had to made somewhere to keep the price withing the range that buyers will buy.
I agree with you on locomotives, you really should not try to compare those items today, otherwise it's like trying to compare apples to oranges. Look at the price of metals today compared to 20 or 30 years ago or more. Copper and brass are through the roof per pound, I know because I invest in both of them.
I think that the manufacturers are doing the best they can to keep the prices in the range of the majority of the buying public.
With that said, there will be some young people and some fixed income older folks, ( and I am an older folk) and some who just want everything at $1, that will never understand economics, so it would be foolhearty for me to even try to explain cost analysis and marketing 101.
In summary, I think manufacturers are doing a descent job of maintaining price stability within this hobby.
I think that plastic production kits should go down as manufacturing costs come down. As far as new technology (CNC, Laser, etc) coming into play in producing new items, those items should reflect an initially high cost, which should drop in retail price as new technology or better manufacturing methods come into play.....
Theroretically speaking that is....
Bob Berger, C.O.O. N-ovation & Northwestern R.R. My patio layout....SEE IT HERE
There's no place like ~/ ;)
I would think when a new kit comes on the market, the initial price might be on the high side since the manufacturers have to recoup their development costs but once that is done, the molds should last indefinitely. On the other hand, they can't ask too high an initial cost since they have to compete with what is already on the market. I'm guessing they expect to recover the development costs over time.
The two items that jumped out at me were the Campbell's Grain Elevator which has more than tripled in price but even that is probably not much if any more than cost of living as a whole. Instant Horizon's backdrops have virtually not changed at all in price in 25 years. Apparently once they created the printing plates, producing the backdrops must be fairly inexpensive so they could hold costs down over the years and now offer these items at a considerable discount from 25 years ago.
luvadj wrote: I think that plastic production kits should go down as manufacturing costs come down. As far as new technology (CNC, Laser, etc) coming into play in producing new items, those items should reflect an initially high cost, which should drop in retail price as new technology or better manufacturing methods come into play.....Theroretically speaking that is....
Not speaking theoretically at all - plastic is an oil-based product. Have you checked the trend in crude oil prices lately? Any savings in amortized production fixtures are going to be swallowed up in material cost - and you can't sell at a price below your cost of production unless you put up a big GOING OUT OF BUSINESS sign and hire a bankruptcy lawyer.
Also, new products will demand new molds and new machines to replace old ones that wear out. Want to bet that those expenses will come down? Any high roller in Sin City would cover you.
The loose link in your reasoning is that model railroad production is small-batch, limited production. Those economies only come into play when you can churn out 50,000 or more like items in a single run. I would be hard pressed to name anything in model railroading other than Athearn BB products that even begins to approach that level - and Athearn did it over a span of decades, not weeks.
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
In order to have any true meaning, your comparisons must also indicate what your weekly salary was both then and now.
In 1940, you could buy a Studebaker Champion for $600 -- but that was probably 4 or 5 years' salary for most people back then. And car dealerships wanted cash, not plastic.
One huge factor with regard to advertising in a 1990 issue of MR versus today is the internet.
The lion's share of businesses in the hobby are mom-and-pop size, and they don't have a huge advertising budget -- but in 1990 there was no internet, so either you advertise in MR to reach hobbyists or they just don't know you exist.
With the internet now a good 15 years old, those mom-and-pops can reach much of their audience with a good search-engine-friendly web site. Any ads in MR can be much smaller, and they can even afford to skip months.
Today's internet means a shoe-string budget hobby business can reach many hobbyists without being in MR -- so naturally, I would expect today's MR to be skinner and have less ads.
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
Joe, that is an excellent point, and it certainly explaines "why" MR (as well as other mags) are thinner these days.
As for cost of crude oil, yes, it certainly is near $100 a barrel, look for it to hit there next week or two. However, recycling is having a huge impact on keeping manufactured goods made with petroleum in check. We now have a separate trash container provided to us by our refuse desposal contractor in our neighborhood. It gets weighed before emptying, and it even has a microchip in the cover which reads into a hand-held device by the driver. We earn Recycle bucks ($$) that we can use at many local big name stores. ( Awaiting my LHS to join the list ) And all the refuse is used to build ( in part ), yup, you guessed it, my next HO box car, etc. You would be surprised at what is now reproduced using recycled materials.
I also think that the quality of items these days is greater then they were 20 years ago when I started. I look at the Atlas Loco's now and then and think wow what a difference.
Exactly my thinking. The items in my list were chosen because to the best of my knowledge, they are the same product sold 25 years ago. I think what has changed over the years is what we modelers expect for our dollar. What was considered mid range, such as a basic Atlas or Athearn BB loco, is now looked at as lower end. I think we know expect our locos to either be DCC equipped or at least DCC ready so we can drop in a plug and play decoder. When I put that list together I purposely looked for items that are essentially the same as they were 25 years ago.
Contrary to some thinking out there- the molds do NOT last forever! They wear and sometimes crack and break. Most new tools are not made of steel like the old Athearn or Details West molds.
.......and yes, It is very expensive to have a new mold done, let alone CORRECTLY. You cannot just find a standard machinist and give him a blueprint and say "Here, go make this". You need people who understand how this part or that part needs to be done so that the mold fills (and cools) correctly, where to put the gates and what type of matierial will run in it. People who tool for the model railroad industry are especially hard to come by and they charge accordingly- in the U.S., China, or anywhere else.
Also, most of the good manufacturers do not use "regrind" plastic. That has its own set of pitfalls that do not work out well.
Speaking from experience, Keith Turley/ Details West
Something else besides the Internet. Something new gets released or announced and gets put under a bright light and intense scrutiny by all parties for better or worse.
A Manufacter who announced a choo choo for example has to be sweating bullets as various forums tear apart the new engine LONG before it actually gets produced and hits the hobby shop.
Success or Failure of a choo choo model or any model sometimes rest on how it performed via video or other considerations.
Continued survival of the model being produced will depend on people's feedback. You can almost see if a item is goot, or junk with issues before you spend a penny with a little searching.
Finally but not least, finding that choo choo at a price you are willing to pay instead of FULL MSRP or even your local hobby shop's price can save you money... particularly the part about sales taxes. Not having to pay taxes sometimes makes the sale.
Dont worry about me, I keep two hobby shops busy and lots of internet stuff all year. There is enough to go around.
The other side of the coin, the Internet can communicate one buyer's desire for a very specific choo choo and reach out to the USA or even the world and find that choo choo and have it shipped.
That did not exist 15 years ago.
Hi fellas and gals!
Well, I'll chime in with my two cents worth!I also build and fly RC airplanes, have for years, but trains are also a passion!
I ALSO restore and fly vintage airplanes, I own and fly a 1946 Ercoupe.You think trains are expensive???Try FULL SCALE aviation. Present price of avgas 100 low lead here is $4.78 a gallon.Burns 4 1/2 to 5 gallons an hour, so thats about $25 an hour for fuel.Just put a new transponder in my plane--cost? -- $2,000.00 plus wiring, oh I guess about $2300 overall.New moving map GPS-Navcom radio, cost?=$1,200 New brakes and lines, let's see, about $800.00.3 new tires, oh about $145 apiece.New paint job will cost about $7,000
Engine overhual a few years ago (4 cylinders) about $8,500Annual FAA safety inspection, at least $700Hangar rent at $185 a month split two ways so, about $92.50 a month
Trains??? TRains are a CHEAP HOBBY!!! CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP!!!
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
Have we all forgotten THE MOST EXPENSIVE part of the hobby........your space! Until the recent real estate crash (which is by no means over) the cost of space has FAR exceeded the cost of living AND wages. Yes engines cost over $100 and rolling stock over $25 but they have improved so much over the years you can't compare them.....but housing had more than trippled or quadrupled in many areas of the country in a short 5-7 year span. I don't know about you guys but my pay really hasn't gone up much in almost 10 years, forget upbout tripling to keep up with housing....and that is the case for most people who are not self employed or work for a union or the government. In fact a HUGE segment of the population is now making LESS then they were for the same jobs they had 5-7 years ago.
The really great thing about this hobby is that there are so many directions to go you can enjoy some segment of it no matter what income level you are at...reading the magazines are free if you local library carries them (and many do), if you have cable the DIY network has "Workin on the Railroad" whcih is a weekly teaching and information show and for $15 -$35 per month will get you membership into most railroad clubs where you can participate in all phases of the hobby and most of them have a selection motive power and rolling stock for members to run with.....it really is the World's Greatest Hobby at any price.
I thought I would do a quick bit of research from when I entered the hobby (1967) to today.
The average annual income in 1967 was about $8,000 per year, and today the average annual income is $66,000 (I'm rounding to keep the math simple). That's an increase of 825%.
I recall my father seeing a 2-8-0 brass loco on the back of my first MR for $70, and he told me the hobby was too expensive. I told him those locos were special-built brass imports (at least I learned that much from my first MR) and not the price of a typical loco. A typical Athearn diesel, I told him, was $15. He was much relieved to hear that!
So what should that brassie cost today if the price kept pace with average income growth? How about $577? And that Athearn Blue Box loco? $124.
Athearn's new SD40T-2 is listed at $100, and it's a much better loco than that 1967 Blue Box would have been -- so that's an improvement! What's a good Blue Box-type loco go for these days?
The $577 for the brass 2-8-0 is probably a bit low these days, thanks to collectors -- but the details put on most brass locos today makes that 1967 brass import look crude -- and today's brass steamers run a fair sight better than those in 1967 did.
The other comparison is minimum wage. In 1967 it was $1.40 per hour. Today it is $5.85. That's an increase of 418%, which means the low end wage earner has lost ground. Those looking to get into the hobby (teens and young adults on minimum wage) will have a tougher time than they had in 1967, it seems. Or will they?
You can still get IHC, Bachmann, and Model Power diesels, brand new, for $25. In terms of minimum wage 1967 dollars, thats a loco for $6. What a deal! Sure, it's not a great loco, but then these entry locos never have been known for their quality.
So I don't think all is lost. It's kind of a mixed bag, some better, some a little worse, but in many cases we're getting an excellent value considering income growth since 1967!
Even though I can't really provide a good standing in this debate because I wasn't around back when the price tag was smaller on everything, I can give my $.02. I cant really complain with the prices nowadays, compared to the cost of other hobbies and things of similar nature. The fact is, there isn't much we can do to change things price wise. And inflation goes up about 3% each year on the American dollar, but the salaries and everything money related adjusts to the inflation rate, so when the price seems to go up, its really just doing so to adjust with inflation and inflation also causes salaries to be higher... Just my words in this debate.
-beegle55
Last week I watch the US Dollar sag against most other currencies on Wall Street.
Over the years I watched space dwindle. The home I live in is pretty good for two people, but when you consider the cost to Add on or build a new building on our land it's alot cheaper than trying to buy into a bigger place.
Well what you've said is true, but the housing market is a completely different story. Its not good for anyone right now, and even though the price of lumber and building materials is really high, you're right.
Unless you make what I concider a high wage, or you income isn't rediculous....YES! Model railroading can be quite friggin expensive.
"Being misunderstood is the fate of all true geniuses"
EXPERIMENTATION TO BRING INNOVATION
http://community.webshots.com/album/288541251nntnEK?start=588
I have one that has gone down:
P1000 Newsprint car, CN. First one was $24.99, the second was $18.95 (all in CDN $s). And all the rest of the newsprint cars I have got since have been at the $18.95 price (but they are BC Rail )
jfugate wrote:I thought I would do a quick bit of research from when I entered the hobby (1967) to today.The average annual income in 1967 was about $8,000 per year, and today the average annual income is $66,000 (I'm rounding to keep the math simple). That's an increase of 825%....
...
The median household income is $48,201 vice the mean of $66,570. (from http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032007/hhinc/new04_001.htm)
Median income is a better measure than mean, because it better reflects the average household without the distortion caused by very high income households.
Enjoy
Paul
IRONROOSTER wrote: jfugate wrote: I thought I would do a quick bit of research from when I entered the hobby (1967) to today.The average annual income in 1967 was about $8,000 per year, and today the average annual income is $66,000 (I'm rounding to keep the math simple). That's an increase of 825%.... The median household income is $48,201 vice the mean of $66,570. (from http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032007/hhinc/new04_001.htm) Median income is a better measure than mean, because it better reflects the average household without the distortion caused by very high income households.
jfugate wrote: I thought I would do a quick bit of research from when I entered the hobby (1967) to today.The average annual income in 1967 was about $8,000 per year, and today the average annual income is $66,000 (I'm rounding to keep the math simple). That's an increase of 825%....
Absolutely correct. The idea that $66k is representative of typical housholds across the United States today is utterly absurd. Outside the major cities, annual wages of $30,000 and even less are still very common today and more and more formerly lower middle class families are now verging on the cutoff that supposedly defines the proverty line!
Indeed, the Fat Cats are doing just great, as well as skewing the figures, but the average guy has been slowly loosing ground in purchasing power for many years. Back in 1967 the husband worked to support the family and the wife still typically stayed at home, taking care of the house and kids. Today, in most cases, both adults have to work just to make ends meet if they are homeowners and guys around my way often take on an additional part-time side job to obtain any meaningful disposable income. If that's considered an improvement in our economic situation, I'd hate to see what's the flipside.
CNJ831
Of course the "baby boom" situation many of us grew up with - Dad going to work, Mom being a fulltime homemaker - was something of a historical oddity. Before that time women often worked, although it was often done in the home so may have been picked up as official employment, like taking in wash or doing sewing.
It is pretty amazing how things have changed regarding housing, I remember Linn Westcott writing an article c. 1972 about visiting a "dream layout" of a wealthy guy who lived in a palatial "$100,000 house" (mansion). Last year the run-of-the-mill ranch house we bought cost over $200,000!!
Back to the original post...keep in mind that 1982 was the height of the "Reagan Recession" that came before the boom years of the mid-eighties. I remember it well, when I graduated from university in June 1982 unemployment was over 10% and prices were falling because no one had money to buy things. If the gov't hadn't juggled the books a little, I suspect the country would have met the criteria for that being a depression rather than a bad recession.
Our wages are a darn sight less than the Median. Aside from taxes, necessary bills and trains/entertainment we are happy to have a savings account.
The Government needs to count the people by how much they have saved up instead of looking at those IRS tax forms. They wont, because it is easier to lobby Congress to stack the spending higher and leave the worrisome problem known as the budget for the next Congress.
My area says that they enjoy a median income of 35,000 dollars per household. I like them to go to the local grocery store and see the forest of WIC assistance cards being swiped. They need to go down to the Walmart super center where all the REAL money is being spent usually in another county.
There is a small number of people who enjoy trains compared to the overall population. Judging from the large number of lake fishing and hunting shops in the area there are other hobbies competing for the dollar.
I would like to know what is keeping anyone from being what they would like to be ( I am speaking about a career here ). I was born and brought up in a dirt poor neighborhood, cold water house, 3 family, no central heat, and dad made $19 a week back in 1940. I wanted something better, and so did my parents for their children. All they could afford was a junior college ( 2 year ) and that was with me working part time to help. I wanted to go into the field of electronics, as I knew that was a good area to make the $$ that we never had, and I always loved anything electrical as a boy.
Later I entered the Army and received more training in electronics. This helped me get a good job upon exiting the Army. Later I went on to get a full degree, while I was married and had 4 children, attending school nights, 4 nights a week for 5 years. The rest is history. I later went on for a Master's degree in business at age 50, ya that's right ..50!! Why? Because I wanted to see if I could do it, and 4 years later after attending school at night, I made it with honors.
I am NOT telling this little personal story to toot my horn, I could care less, I am not that way , but when I hear people knock those who make the "big bucks" in life, I see red. Who was holding "you" back? I had it as tough as anyone and did it, ask yourselves why you couldn't do it? People have come to this country with only the shirts on their backs and pennies in their pocket, and cannot even speak the language and yet they succeed.
I think one needs to ask oneself ," what is REALLY holding me back"....the answer is YOU!