collectible trains of tomorrow

[Anonymous]

I would like to know, what models could be major collector items in 30 to 40 years? do you think that new Bachmann 2-8-0 will make it to auction houses in the year 2042? or will a Kato Mikado be sold for thousands of dollars at Sotheby's? what do you think?

[Anonymous]

I don't know, but the Kato N scale C44-9W Dash 9's are very hard to find, especially the older runs. Nobody wants to trade or sell them except on Ebay it seems! I haven't seen them in the store for a while, new or used. I have only 1, want more!

[CNJ831]

There never has been, nor is there currently, a true collector's market in HO - except for imported brass locomotives. Items produced from the late 1930's through the 1960's today probably bring about as much or even less than their original selling price adjusted for inflation (see eBay results).

Attempting to project 30-40 years into the future what might be of interest/collectible in HO is probably a futile effort. By then the Baby Boomers will have past into history and with them the probability that there will be any wide spread interest in the hobby itself. Likewise, because of the advancement in electronics, it will likely be impossible to run current models on any layouts of the 2040's that do exist.

Finally, collectibility of any type item, be it cars, glassware, or bottle caps, is typically centered around the oldest examples available. Do you see anybody who is today collecting Athearn engines of the 1970's or early 1980's? Thus, in the 2040's any interest there might be would logically still be centered around late pre-war and early post-war 20th century HO - not 2002 models.

John

[Anonymous]

It seems to me that a lot of folks are being "sucked in" when it comes to "limited editions" "collectors editions" "limited runs" and etc. in locos,cars and building kits. When I see an Athearn box car from the 70's selling for $25-$30 and told that its "a collectors item" I want to laugh!! Point being...collecting equiptment is a great part of this hobby if that's what one likes to do...as for me...put it on the rails and run it...build that expensive craftsman kit and enjoy it... you're never going to get rich just holding on to it. Take Care and Have Fun!....Vic

[BRAKIE]

The only thing I know is colectable is the brass locomotives.I agree with Vic.Limited runs,special runs and collectors item is hog wash.Athearn still makes alot road names today that been around since the 60s.now,as far as collecting Lionel seems to have a collectors value.I have seen some 1950 era lionel go for very high prices.But will this continue for the next 40 years? Who knows? The real question might be Will there be a hobby known as Model Railroading in 2042? If there is I think it will be done by computer.This has already started!

[Anonymous]

I think that there will be a hobby know as Model Railroading in 2042 (Since I should be nearing retirement at that time, I sure hope so).

I belive there will still be a hobby done by hand. I work at a computer 8 hours a day and deal in a "virtual" work, one of the last thing I want to when I get home is to sit a computer again. I'm probely not alone in this belief. I for one like (and need) the tactile inupt that model trains give.

So if there is "computer model railroading" that is fine. But it wont kill off physical model railroading.

[Anonymous]

To an extent, I have to disagree, Vic. I don't feel "sucked in" because I buy limited edition structure kits. I buy them because they are usually of high quality and because they give me an opportunity to have something on my layout that only a few other people in the world can have - unlike the ubiquitous DPM/Lifelike/Campbell, etc. kits.

I do build them; I don't collect them. But I recently saw an ad for a built up kit that I also have. The guy was asking $425 for it - the original price was $79! It boggled my mind! I had never considered a built-up kit to be worth much to a collector, but apparently there is a market for such things.

[Anonymous]

John, you're ignoring the market for limited run HO structure kits. While I do buy them, I don't "collect" them; I build them and put them on my layout. But there is a huge collector's market for these kits - and they sell for top dollar in their original boxes. Check out the ads for FSM, South River, SierraWest, for example. Two years ago, I bought South River's Brick Roundhouse (which I still have to assemble) for $325. I recently saw an ad for the kit; someone was offering $650 for an "unassembled in original packing" kit! My feeling is that there will still be a market for these kits many years from now. Why? Because of supply and demand. There were only a few hundred of these made and sold world-wide. As they become scarcer over the coming years, their value will increase.

My ex-brother-in-law collects Monopoly games (of all things!). He only buys those which were published during the 1930's and '40's. Needless to say, they are extremely rare, and - to a collector - quite valuable. I have a neighbor who collects pre-Depression stemware. She spends a small fortune when she finds a collection or individual pieces to fill out a collection.

The point is, 30, 40, 50 years from now, there will very likely be a market for HO stuff. There are all sorts of people who collect all sorts of things. Why not model railroad items?

[cbq9911a]

I don't think it's likely that either the Bachmann 2-8-0 or the Kato 2-8-2 will make it as major collector items. They are too abundant in today's marketplace, and, as high end items, will be kept in good condition.

However, there will be some items that will become collectibles. The Life-Like USRA 2-8-8-2, lettered N & W 2050, will become a collectible. Con-Cor's upcoming Electroliner will become one as well.

Going beyond HO and N scales, the reproduction Standarg Gauge items will become collectibles; they're somewhat more abundant than the originals. Also, some of the more unusual locomotives put out by MTH, like the U.P. coal turbine and the centipede.

[BRAKIE]

D Oh,I surely hope so.I truely do.

[CNJ831]

Honestly, - , I'm not sure how to classify the goings-on with FSM kits and the like. Collectors usually make purchases out of a love for the items or the area of interest. From discussions we've had over on Yahoo's FSM ml it would appear that around 60% (I believe that's according to George himself) of the FSM kits are going not to builders or collectors per se but to people using them as investments!

These folks use them like stocks and bonds, holding them until the price can be driven up to the level you've pointed out and then selling at a large profit. Seems to have worked only for the very large model kits, however. Smaller FSM model kits, for example the Jewel Series pile driver, are still going for less then original list.

I'd say such kits may be a good short-term investment but with the hobby steadily moving away from true scratchbuilding (and FSM's are most definitely scratch kits compared with more recent laser kits) I think they will become much less desireable among modelers in the more distant future.

John

[Anonymous]

Yeah, I heard George make that statement (I'm not sure where; it might have been in the new Allen Keller video), and he's probably right.

And I have to agree with you about the investment angle. It's unfortunate because the speculators gobble up as many kits as they can, drive prices up, and screw the serious modelers who only want a good kit to build and display as a diorama or on their layout.

Even so, true collectors (such as the folks I mentioned in my earlier posting) , who collect for the love of the object, still often refer to their collections in terms of monetary worth/market value. It's an interesting dichotomy.

As an aside, if you're into scratch building or "scratchkits," you should try one of Brett Gallant's SierraWest kits sometime. They're simply outstanding! All of his "Deer Creek" series kits feature board-by-board and board-on-board construction (no scribed siding!), and the construction manuals are complete courses in scratchbuilding in themselves. (These kits are like the FSM's: they usually go quickly and then reappear months later at double the original price. Grrrr.)

Mike