Is there life after the Baby Boomers are gone.??????

[Dave Farquhar]

QUOTE: Originally posted by 3railguy
It makes me wonder if people are spending too much of their nest egg on trains and worry the bottom will fall out of them.

That really concerns me. I see people come in to the local train store, lay down a few grand for a basement empire, then something happens and they have to sell it all back, at a loss of course. People overextending themselves (and not just on train purchases) isn't good for the hobby, their mental and emotional health, their families, or anyone for that matter.

The Rockefeller Rule of giving away 10% of your income, saving 10%, and then using the remaining 80% for living and leisure expenses would do us an awful lot of good.

On the plus side, trains do retain more of their value than a lot of leisure pursuits, such as CDs, DVDs, and video games. (On average.) But they should be treated like that, not like stocks and bonds.

[dlagrua]

BY all counts the market has and will continue to decline . A new but much smaller generation of collectors will follow in our footsteps .The generation that buys the trains is aging, retiring, relocating and going to their rest. DUring the next 10 years a large amount of trtains will be put on the market becuaue of the changing demographic. More trains and as smaller amount of buyers equates to lower and more sensible prices.

[3railguy]

QUOTE: So many folks worry about the future, rather than savoring what they have today.

Allan Miller hits the nail on the head. To the doomsdayers, I say get off your dead horse, run some trains, and discover what this hobby is all about. We seem to lost the joy of setting a train on the track and watching it run. That's all I really care about and could give a rats a%% where the hobby will be twenty years from now.

It makes me wonder if people are spending too much of their nest egg on trains and worry the bottom will fall out of them. They beat on the TCA and manufactures because they are doing a lousy job of promoting the hobby. Someone should really stick a sock in their mouths and teach them how to spend wisely because many of us are sick of their bickering.

The sky was falling twenty years for the doomsdayers and look where it is today compared to twenty years ago. It just keeps getting better every year. So who knows where it'll be twenty years ago.

[IRONROOSTER]

QUOTE: Originally posted by nblum

Boomers officially date from 1946-65 according to most sources. With any luck it will be 40-50 years before the last boomer turns out the lights for that generation. Even the earliest boomers will have another 20-30 years to fool around with trains. It's early to be getting nostalgic about us guys and gals :).

Good thought - I'll take the 30 years to fool around with trains. [:D]
Enjoy
Paul

[brianel027]

I really agree with Crip that the "collectibility" factor of the hobby has hurt it as much as it has helped it.

I know that from my many years doing displays at train shows, that there is interest from kids and young families. Kids STILL do like trains. Kids in my parts STILL see real trains running and quite frequently. AND kids recognize the railroads they see running locally: Nofolk Southern and Conrail. It was clear and easy to see the excitment of the kids and young parents when I ran these current names over the old hat names like the Pennsy and New York Central. I have locos in those names and not once in over a decade did any kid ever ask me to run one of those locos, but I had countless requests to run the CR and NS items.

I also got loads of comments, notes and letters from folks saying my display layout was their favorite. Huh? I ran cheap stuff, no TMCC or DCS, simple accessories, homemade items, all on a small 027 layout. There were always layouts with the top line expensive stuff - large layouts too. All with the latest gizzmos and yet folks would still say mine was the best. Why? Because I think they felt what I had done was practical, doable and affordable... my layout and display didn't scare them off.

People asked questions. Mothers took notes how I made certain items. I always got questions where did I buy those smaller non-scale current road name locos? That happened a lot. Which is why I am such an advocate for train sets in CURRENT road names.

This hobby can go on and probably will. Lionel has said their strongest area of recent sales has been on the affordable end stuff... which makes one wonder why the majority of product offerings are on the high end side? The same side of products that put K-Line out of business... it wasn't the 027 Alco FA or S-2 that caused K-Line to go under.

Actually the train companies may sue themselves out of business ...
or put themselves out of business with their ignorance and foolishness from making too much new scale stuff, before the hobby actually dies.

[Anonymous]

I am not a baby boomer. I was born in 1972 and my Dad and I had our trains set-up in the spare bedroom. Back then it was almost all MPC and postwar for us. I purred over 70's Lionel catologs till they litterally fell apart. At age 3 I received my (first train) a 1950 2046 hudson that I'm the proud 3rd owner of. Later in the eighties we had the good fortune of finding good post war stuff by word of mouth and garage sales. Back in forties and fifties kids removed their new trains from boxes. We proudly cleaned the dirt off of ares to see what was underneath. It sure was fun.

Scott R. Conforto

[pbjwilson]

"I'm too tired to think of the future. And I just want to keep my butt warm next to this fire."

[nblum]

Boomers officially date from 1946-65 according to most sources. With any luck it will be 40-50 years before the last boomer turns out the lights for that generation. Even the earliest boomers will have another 20-30 years to fool around with trains. It's early to be getting nostalgic about us guys and gals :).

[DCmontana]

I'm a war baby, born in 43. I have a son that is 3. He is train nuts. He has the Lionel Thomas the Tank Engine. He made us stop the other day when we went to Billings to watch the trains. He knows the "pumpkin seed" paint job on the BNSF engines. Another generation is hooked. My dad loved trains and I grew up in Aberdeen, SD on the old Milwaukee. At night he would "coast" me on the bike and we would watch the 9:00 pass by the State Street crossing on its way to Minneapolis. I got my Lionel set in 52. I have nephews that are grown up and have kids of their own. But all at once one of them is getting interested in trains. He had HO as a kid that didn't work out. Too much trouble getting it to run in a reliable manner. By the time he got a Lionel in the late 70's, it was time for high school. Now he is planning on getting back in the hobby and can't decide to go HO or hit the hi-rail scene. I told him HO is for people with a bookkeeper mentality and three rail O is for people that want to have fun! I think toy trains are safe and the next 50 years will be exciting times. The technology will only get better! Let the good trains roll!

[Warburton]

Jim Fortner is on to something with the new Polar Express and similar sets. That does resonate with the youngsters. Let's face it, though: the hobby is going to look a lot dfifferent in thirty years than it does now, and we can only guess as to what it'll look like then!! Imagine what folks would have said predicting the future of thre hobby back in 1969 when lLonel was being sold off and Flyer was gone completely...

[FJ and G]

Njal,

LOL, so a dog has been running the trains and putting replies on the forum. What a brainey pooch! Mine doesn't have a hankerin for toy trains at all.

[Brutus]

I just don't worry about it. One scenario -- If there is a sudden (say over a 5 year period) influx of product from those who have gone on to the great train yard in the sky being sold on ebay, then the prices will be pushed down - this would result in people buying the old trains for sentimental reasons (say - that's like the one my dad used to play with...) and interest a new generation.

I think cross-overs like the Polar Express will also have an impact, as well as the interest in Christmas and Halloween train sets with Department 56ers etc.

[njalb1]

This hobby is going to the dogs! [;)]
I ought to know as I have replied to your thread! RUSTY [:D]

[jimhaleyscomet]

One other "plus" for the future of the railroad hobby is the number of grandparents purchasing trains themselves and for grandkids! Grandparents have a lot more money and time now than in days of old.

Jim H

[Warburton]

IMO, the hobby will look a lot different in twenty years than it does now, but it will survive.When I was a kid in the 50s, a kid was lucky to get a train set at all. I received a Lionel steam set in '55 and my parents threw in a pair of switches and some extra track. The next Christmas, I got a couple of accessories and an operating boxcar. With my own money (from relatives) I bought several Plasticville buildings and a Marx water tower that year and one (only one!) aluminum passenger car (#2530 series) the next. Finally, in 1960, I bought a #225 C&O ALco diesel. I thought I was doing pretty good, all things considered!

I think I was pretty typical of boys back then as to how much train stuff I had. Compare
that with what we all have now and you'll see what a difference 40 or 50 years can make! Back then almost every boy had a train set of some kind by the time they reached ten. Now, adults buy multiple sets and other items to feed their nostalgic needs.
Another thing is that I think as long as there are REAL trains corsing the countryside there will be a desire by men AND boys to repliczate them in miniature. Steamers and GP-7s will probably drop drastically in popularity, but models replicating current motive power will still entrall young and old alike. We certainly had far fewer "toys" to consider way back when than today, but the action and romance of railroading will always entice some!

[palallin]

The hobby doesn't revolve around baby boomers, really. "Ye Olde Guarde" predates the boomers, for one thing. The segment that focuses on POSTWAR Lionel/AF/Marx is largely Baby boomer in make up, and that segment is already changing, following in the path that Prewar created: as the nostalgia factor dies off, the antique factor steps in. Very few kids who played with Classic Era Standard Gauge are still around collecting, but that segment of the hobby is far from dead. In fact, new Standard Gauge is still being made for the portion of the market not interested in antiques. Now, Williams (for example) is making "new" Postwar Lionel, filling the desire for what the antique market really can't provide. The MPC nostalgia market--much smaller but no less focused--faces its future (yes, some kids DID receive, and run, and love their MPC trains).

All this is to say that the hobby changes, but it is in no danger of dying.

[jimhaleyscomet]

Yes. I think we are living in the second Golden age for toy trains. The trains (from entry sets to high end scale stuff) have more features and are more affordable than they have ever been. There will always be at least these two train markets because the entry level sets / 027 gear and the higher end scale / detail market attract different consumers.

I believe there will always be a market for sets because that is what people purchase to put around the christmas tree and for presents. I actually purchase most of my rail product in sets so I think I will always have a decent selection to choose from.

Will the high end stuff always be around? Probably, but it will be expensive and be mostly purchased by folks with extra disposable income (retirees). Remember that retirees live much longer now, retirements are at least twice as long (if not 4X more) than they used to be. You can have 1/2 as many retirees if they continue to purchase twice (or 4X) as long! Also, the retirment generation is more wealthy now than it has ever been in history.

It looks like the outlook for the hobby is just fine.

Jim H

[cnw1995]

I'm at the tail-end of the boomers - born in '63 - and have been wallowing in their wake for my entire life. Surprisingly, there has been intelligent comment in this thread - varients on which pop up regularly. I think the hobby will be fine - it's fine right now for me - and that's primarily what I'm concerned about. It's fascinating to see how those outside the hobby perceive it - like crip said, Lionel is a golden name and one's trains are considered to be worth zillions. But they're not investments. Heck, the Internet guarantees a sort of secondary market for this stuff... I share Allen's perspective on the current manufacturer's - I'm not sure they're nimble or resourced enough to reach out to potential new customers, and they seem to follow each other's offerings.

[drums1427]

Upfront, I'm not from the Baby Boomer generation (born in 76). I don't think that this is a hobby just for the 40+ or older crowd. I got back into trains last year @ Christmas when my wife & I wanted to put one up around the tree. My dad when I was little used to put his Lionel ( I think he said he got it in 1949) around our tree & that got me into them. For years he helped mke buid my 6'x8' HO layout in the garage up until I got into high school. I got back into them because I remembered all of the great memoreies of my dad & I together. When I went to a train show here in DC in February, there were a lot of mid 20 & mid 30 year olds there. Surprised the hell out of me. I overheard most of them saying they remembered how much fun they had with toy trains when they were a kid. I just think that like most hobbies it will go through its ups & downs as the years go by. Nothing stays on top forever.

[FJ and G]

If you were born between 1946 and 1964, you are a baby boomer (I was born in 1957).

If you were born before 1946, you are considered a "mature" person, according to some sources. I'm not sure what they call someone born after 1964 (maybe "born too late".[:D]

Here are some statistics:

The official years of the Baby Boom Generation (1946 through 1964) saw a marked increase in the number of births in the US, as Soldiers came home from the war. Here’s how the birthrate rose and fell during the baby boom years:

1940 - 2,559,000 births per year
1946 - 3,311,000 births per year
1955 - 4,097,000 births per year
1957 - 4,300,000 births per year
1964 - 4,027,000 births per year
1974 - 3,160,000 births per year

Some folks also call us the hot dog and baseball generation. Only the older baby boomers born in the 1940s (and earlier, of course) and possibly the early 1950s lived a childhood when Lionel was the toy to have.

By the time I was born in 1957, Lionel had peaked.

By the way, last night walking the beagle I saw a very very very rare site for northern Virginia, aka geek land. Two teens, probably 15 or 16, had fishing poles and had just returned from catching croppies in the river near my house. Usually, teens that age are online or in their car driving somewhere that's inside. They rarely appear out doors, unlike when I was growing up. I congratulated them on their catch.

[thor]

I have become my uncles and grand father! Born in 1947 I grew up playing with the aforementioned relatives pre-war clockwork Bassett Lowke and Hornby and others I cant remember the names of which were the finest Ogauge train models I'd see for a long time - until now, in fact! All my Meccano (steel erector set) was handed down from them.

My own kids didnt get the benefit of all that I was too busy trying to earn a living and keep them all in clothes etc. Though my middle son did get Playmobil from me, they had an earlier railway system and he loved playing with it if I was doing it with him. We didnt have the spare space for a proper layout.

So its my grandchildren who are benefitting from this boomers last gasp and Lionel and the others too! Passing on the torch etc. Hope it works out for them.

[IRONROOSTER]

I am onhe leading edge of the boomers. Frankly until about ten years ago I was too tied up with my three boys to afford much in the way of trains, a couple of magazines and some 4x8 layouts was all I had time or money for. Of course the boys got trains while growing up, but they didn't seem to take to them. Now they are grown and as noted above I have enough money and some time. When I retire in 3 years, I'll really have the time.

I think that's the future of the hobby. Retirees live longer and they need something to do. Instead of worrying about the youngsters, we should focus on the retirees. Instead of a watch at the retirement party give a train set.
Enjoy
Paul

[johnandjulie13]

I wonder how much smaller the market really is today? By all accounts Lionel had their best year ever in 1953, both in terms of volume and dollar revenue. Since then the company has run into a myriad of problems and everybody has forecasted the end of model railroading. However, what is not considered is that this hobby now takes on many more forms than it did 50 years ago. In addition to a still large (albeit much smaller group than 1953) O gauge following, there is an even bigger HO gauge group. There are also the N and Z gauge hobbyists. Plus, there are also 1/G gauge indoor/outdoor modelers.

If you were to add up the sales of all of the companies that provide model train products, I would guess that it is a much larger industry than it was 50 years ago. As a result, I think if the hobby has survived to this point, it will continue to find avid followers in the future.

Regards,

John

[crip]

I feel the biggest problem with toy trains and youth is parents. Every time family or friends visit and see my trains the first word out of parents mouths is," DON'T TOUCH THOSE, THEY ARE WORTH GAZILLIONS"! I run low end starter trains,(Lionel, MTH loco sound)
and enjoy playing with TOY TRAINS with kids and their unlimited imagination. If it breaks,(yet to happen) oh well , they will build more.

BTW my youngest son's first layout was an oval of HO with buildings made out of contruction paper

[Anonymous]

There are alot of young people, myself included that are into the hobby and want to continue into it over the years. The biggest difference between the younger generation and the baby-boomer generation has pretty much already been mentioned as far as money, time and housing. Most younger people are still trying to get established and therefore money is not always available for trains. Same for space. Many young people don't bother making a layout because they live in apartments and dont have the room.

My belief would be to simply do it a little at a time, there's no time rush (unless you've been diagnosed with terminal cancer or something). Purchase a little here and there every paycheck if you can swing it, and that's how most people have built up their collections over time.

I agree, the majority of the people in the hobby are way older than I am. But that doesnt mean that us younger generation cant have the chance to get to that point in life too with the hobby. It will just take time is all.

[tmcc man]

Now I agree and disagree with this. Yes, when you are over 40, have a steady income of money, you will be able to afford what you want. But, the hobby isn't always for the 40 and above. I am 15 years old, and when I get money from events, that goes right to my railroading things. So, you have a young modeler right here. I know plenty more teens that are railfans and modelers.

[overall]

Guess what folks. The driving force in the hobby always has been the over 40 bunch. Why? Because by the time we reach that age, we are established in our jobs, the kids are grown and gone. We have larger homes with extra room for a layout. So when we are over 40, we have all three of the ingredients needed to pursue the hobby i.e. space, time and money. I'm 49 and I've been active to some extent in this hobby most all my life. I wondered when I was a kid what would happen when the older generation involved in the hobby died off. Well we see what happened. Lionel came roaring back, Atlas got into O gauge, Williams steadily imptoved their products to some of the best around and we also have MTH. Don't worry about it. Enjoy what we have.

George

[dwiemer]

As a late boomer (born in 67), I had been away from the hobby for awhile. I got back into trains due to my young son as I wanted him to have a Lionel around the tree at Christmas. In looking back on my childhood, trains were a important part in that they taught me many lessons from my father, from taking care of something, to actually doing electrical repairs. I fully plan to pass on the love of trains to both my young son and my little girl. I can't make them love trains in the future, but for now, they have a ball when we play.

As to the hobby, I think a great campaign could be started like they have in hunting. Take a child into the woods could be changed with take a child along, to a train show, to a railroad club, or to your own layout. Also, the hobby got a big boost from Thomas and also the Polar Express. Lionel was smart to jump on these legendary films and I hope they look into more projects. Lately, trains have been featured in such programs as "the Sopranos", and "Workin on the Railroad", and others. I think we should try to support these programs and ask for more.

Remember, the lessons you learned as a child by "playing with trains" go far beyond the layout. You learn to care about something, and maintain it. You learn mechanical skills, electrical skills, and even physical skills. You learn to share ideas and I am sure y'all can come up with lots more. I especially value the times that my dad spent with me and the memories, and I enjoy the time with my kids and the good memories they will carry after I am gone.
Dennis

[Anonymous]

So many folks worry about the future, rather than savoring what they have today. Not quite sure why that is so, because there's truly very little we as individuals can do about the future of the hobby after we're "tapped-out" from consuming, or planted six-feet under which is everyone's destiny, aside from doing our very best--as individuals--to inspire others to join in. Some will bite, and many won't, but that's the way it has always been.

My own feeling is that a good many of us oldsters are already tapped-out in terms of satisfying our need for quantities of trains, many of which don't even see much running time, if any. Since there are far more of us (in the 50-plus age group) than there are in any other age group, it's bound to have an impact on the industry as a whole since it involves a finite number of participants that cannot help but diminish over time.

This means the hobby industry itself is going to need to get a whole lot smarter to (1) keep the customers they have and (2) attract new entrants to the hobby. The manufacturers have done a pretty good job of attending to point #1 in recent years--perhaps far too good because they've managed, in many instances, to overproduce for the market that's available. But they learned their lesson in that regard, as evidenced by the somewhat ridiculous (in my opinion) policy of requiring customers to preorder and then producing items basically made to order.

On point #2, they've done a pretty miserable job (again, in my opinion). They have devoted a whole lot of time to preaching to the choir (and some have even backed off from doing that), but they have really done precious little to develop a wider market base by reaching out to new customers and potential customers. Yes, you'll see some initiatives put forth around the holiday season, but there really has been no concerted effort to go beyond that.

There's little point in worrying about what youngsters will or will not do in regard to their hobby participation in their later years (when they have some spare money to spend on hobbies). That's something none of us can predict or control because so many of life's experiences will most certainly intervene.

The point is: Enjoy your hobby for what it gives to you now. Unless you're in the manufacturing or retail end of the industry, you really have little to worry about, and there's even less you can do about it if you're determined to fret and worry. And if you are in the manufacturing or retailing end of the hobby, it's time to start thinking outside the box and really devoting a whole lot of effort to some creative thinking beyond that which goes into designing the next new locomotive.