Catalog Item Availability

[Jumijo]

Between the internet and blowout sales, I find it's better to wait for the desired item to get priced more to my liking.

Jim

[Bob Keller]

With the market as tight as it is, I believe that manufacturers are getting away from a fixed number (i.e. we can always sell 1,500 GP7s) to those ordered plus a small number above that.

For example, a recent ad for Trainworld showed the Lionel 18567 GP9 selling for $199. This was made in 1997 (!) and was apparently made in pretty large numbers. I don't think that 9 years from now you'll find "blowout" quantities of any 2006 locomotive sold by a dealer. Oh, as I recall, I believe that loco had TMCC and RailSounds, so it wasn't a dog.

[winrose46]

If it is a must have item, I will preorder. If it is nice and I am interested I will wait until it is delivered. Usually the shops will order some items for the store that have not been preordered. Most of my purchases (90%) are made after I have seen the product either at the store or at York.

[Anonymous]

Just a thought, but with the availability of Ebay and the use of online auctions as a "real job" for some people, do you think that some buy from whatever channel they can, and then resell the limited availability product on Ebay? Similar to what happened at Christmas with Xboxes where a friend of mine bought three from stores with prepurchase polices and then sold them on Ebay for a 300% profit margin in less than a week. I believe this has introduced a new market dynamic different from the traditional collectors or people like me that simply run a small layout with my son (for fun -- imagine that!). We don't do a lot of landscaping, but are trying to build a nice set.

I went to my local hobby shop when I saw the new Lionel catalog and was surprised to learn the truth that many of you old-timers apparently already knew (newbie lesson #562) and that you can't simply order stuff from the catalog and expect to get it.

So should I preorder -- what kind of luck do you guys have with that? Or do I just wait until its on Ebay?

[Anonymous]

I think part of it may be to give your dealer an idea concerning how much of an item to order, and in some cases, how much a train co. should make. I know much of the '06 Lionel stuff won't be available 'til June. I told my large dealer I want 2 items in the catalog, so he now knows he has 2 "sold". Joe

[dbaker48]

I don't profess to know the marketing and manufacturing strategies for the major manufacturers. But base upon my knowledge of manufacturing it is a very long and complex process.

First they need to come up with some product strategies as what to produce the next year, (I am sure that is already being done for next years catalog.) This must take into affect what has been produced recently, what they think the market or public will want, what the competition has done recently. And especially what types of items are selling from the preious year. From that some product concepts come to be, and then technology taken into affect both model train, and protoype. And of course the economics, what it will cost to design, produce, and the quantity that will be sold. And WILL it be profitable.

Then with a potential product defined, design would begin, whether it be modifications of previous products or totally new designs. And of course that process can be very lengthy. Build of a prototype, which typically requires "soft" tooling. (Tooling made from aluminum which is easy to machine, but has a limited yield capability.) Then their is typically many improvements and changes made. Once all the changes have been incorporated, then the development of "hard" tooling begins. Hard tooling is made from steel, and may take 2-3 months to produce. (Keeping costs resonable as oppossed to paying premiums). Once the tooling is done and production begins, actual assembly doesn't take much time. But what we are not including are all the testing, agency approvals (UL), various toy agencies, patent documentation and processess that are required.

Then of course their is the marketing planning and document development time. Keep in mind the worst thing that can happen is to end up with a lot of extra inventory that didnot sell. Or had to be sold at a lower price than planned. Of course while all this is going on the competition is agressively trying to find out what product you are producing and getting theirs to market first.

Typically in the past an initial quantity would be produced for dealers, demos, and early sales. As costs have become more, and more critical it is essential not to overproduce. The manufacturers would rely on a "forecast" from dealers as to what they would sell. As that information becomes less reliable, (the dealer doesn't want to get stuck either). Then the dealer begins to "presale" or require deposits before they commit.

The inavailability is as much a dealer or local store responsibility as the manufacturer. Ask your dealer how many items did they order from the new catalog? You will probably be surprised.

Our society use to be a "push" society. Which means the manufacturer would produce as much as possible, and pu***hat through the distribution system to the end user or consumer. It has been proven to be very wasteful and costly.

We are now in a "pull" society, which is simply the reverse. When the consumer takes an item of the shelf the store replaces it that night. The stores now get daily shipments from the warehouse (not having to wait for a case quantity). And up the chain it goes, all the way to the manufacturer. (This system is also known as Just in Time, or Kanban).

Hope this helps, and I didn't confuse the issue even more.

[darianj]

I wonder that myself.
Part of me wants to say that it has to do wit the difficulty of trying to mass produce so many different types of engines and cars throughout the year. I once heard that retooling factories to make different types of products can be costly...but I don't really now.

Another part of me wants to say that it's a plot to drive the prices up.

Just my [2c]

[Anonymous]

There's one thing I don't understand, why is it in new catalogs that the items in there are usually never avaliable when you ask about them?

For instance, about 2 weeks ago I went to my local hobby shop and had placed an order for 2 diesel locomotives in the MTH 2006 catalog. Now just yesterday when I went in to make a layaway payment for the PE, the guy told me that it was a good thing I placed the order for the two units, because as of now they are technically sold out. I was like, dang! So I got them on reserve now and should arrive sometime in April, so I will work on making payments before they arrive.

Now what bothers me is, what's the point of putting these items in these catalogs when they are always sold out before we can even order them? Like the Acela set, that was only in limited production and those who weren't able to order that set will now never get the opportunity to own one (not to mention that its not possible to drop the kind of money the Acela set was asking for on a dime).

It just makes no sense. Maybe that's why many hobby shops have what they call Prebuys?

Chris