2005 predictions

[FJ and G]

1. There will be 2 less toy train companies

2. Someone will make a 12-car scale open auto transport (predicted this last year, 30 days still left)

3. Live steam will become a hit on the 3-rail track

4. The maker of Beeps (Walter M. of Ready something) will make Geeps for $50 that will be runaway best sellers.

5. Wal-Mart, Target and Sears will have reliable starter sets for sale year-round and the company that gets in will be wildly successful

6. A DCS crane will be made

7. Toy train production will move from Korea and China to India and Bangladesh where labor is even cheaper

8. A rechargeable battery-powered scale train will be produced and transformers and wiring will eventually become a thing of the past as toy trains go "wireless"

9. Packages of smells will be offered, for example, dough smell for a bread factory, cattle smells, and creosote smells

10. Jay Leno will get tired of collecting cars and begin collecting toy trains.

[Anonymous]

Here are my opinions of some of your predictions.


1. There will be 1 less toy train company.

4. The maker of Beeps (Walter M. of Ready something) will make Geeps for $50 that will be runaway best sellers. K-Line beat him to it

5.Target or Sears will have reliable starter sets for sale year-round and the company that gets in will be wildly successful could happen but production has to be RAMPED UP (If MTH gets the $40 million and I was Mike Wolf,that's how I'd spend it Remember he OWNS production capacity. Sears would be the retail outlet Lionel would likely go with Target.)

6. A DCS crane will be made could happen

7. Toy train production will move from Korea and China to India and Bangladesh where labor is even cheaper could happen over the next few years

8. A rechargeable battery-powered scale train will be produced and transformers and wiring will eventually become a thing of the past as toy trains go "wireless" I have long thought this is a possible way to go

[wrmcclellan]

Dave,

Re #8. Garden G-Scalers have been doing this for some time. They use the AristoCraft wireless controller and batteries in the train. Avoids dirty track and connections in the outdoor environment.

Re #10. Jay Leno is already a Lionel collector and has been for many years. In the early days of his version of the Tonight Show, he had Neil Young as a guest. Leno, knowing Neil was also an avid collector, told Neil that they should get some trains out. Neil moved his chair back and a Lionel SP GS4 Daylight set attempted (yes attempted) to cross the planter in back of their seats. It derailed halfway across, leading to a quip from Leno that it must have been an Amtrak train!

Regards,
Roy

[mersenne6]

I predict:....

1. In an attempt to increase market penetration both CTT and OGR, for a modest extra fee will offer special issues of their respective publications printed on vellum and hand delivered by the magazine editor.

2. Methods of forensic science will permit a new TCA grading standard above mint. This category will be known as "print". It will be unveiled at the April York meet. Individuals with mint, sealed , trains will be able to have their items checked to see if they were actually handled by Joshua Lionel Cowan. Those items so discovered will be given a certificate of authenticity and photocopies of the fingerprints. The grading scale will be from 1-10 reflecting the number of distinctly different finger prints found on the piece.

3. In order to appeal to people enamored of full scale articulated models but limited to 0-27 track, 3rd Rail will manufacture models of the Santa Fe flexible boilered articulateds.

4. European bidders will set record prices at the second Kimball auction. Their attempts to make prompt payment will severly impact the value of the euro against the dollar.

5. The debate surrounding the two signature rule for TCA membership will result in a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision which will impact everything from printed signatures on U.S. currency to the way people sign for UPS packages.

....of course I could be wrong....

[Anonymous]

I predict that many people are tired of buying only on the internet,and more "live "train shows wiil emerge....PeoPle ,i know collecting trains have missed the touchy feely aspect of the hobby..

joseph nicholas

[okiechoochoo]

Prices for all really nice Lionel Postwar, except mint in the box, will crash and I can get my collection for about 30% of what it would have cost a few years ago.

[Anonymous]

One of the few surviving companies will sell a SpongeBob SquarePants set that actually runs underwater.

MTH will sell a replica of the 700E for Five thousand, and a Mickey Mouse Handcar for one thousand.

[eZAK]

Lionel & MTH will merge forming one company called Lionel's House of Trains,
Mike Wolf will be CEO, under the parrent copany Wellsprings Assc.

The next generation control system will be TMDC (Train Master Digital Control)
Which will control EVERY toy train & acc. EVER built from 'Z' thru 'G'.

[lionelsoni]

My prediction will come true only after all the others above have: I will finish my layout.

[prewardude]

Thanks to the success of MTH's RTR standard gauge sets, tinplate standard gauge trains will continue to gain more of a foothold in the operating community.

Okay, it's more of a wi***han a prediction. [;)]

Man, I love those things: http://www.mthtrains.com/catalog/list3.asp?cat=bz&line=Tinplate&type=rtr

[railfanespee4449]

My predictions-
Lionel wins appeal, and MTH goes back to unique producs, like that semi-scale 2-6-0
The RMT beeps get a horn for $25 more
Lionel gives the Docksider railsounds for $50 more
And someone finds out I like trains and mails me a 700e, congressional GG-1, Standard & O gauge Bule Comets, one of every F-unit ever made, and a complete Electric control RR from the 50's.(all mint)

[FJ and G]

How about this one. Trains will become sexy to women in the same way that beemers are, after Brad Pitt stars in a toy train movie.

[cbq9911a]

My predictions:

1. Lionel and MTH settle out of court. MTH gets $$$ and TMCC; Lionel gets DCS.

2. Prices for MPC Lionel (1970 - 1986) will crash, except for mint-in-the-box items.

3. One of the manufacturers will make 4000 series and 6000 series Chicago L cars,
and will sell out right away.

4. MTH will start making models of everything the North Shore Line ever ran. Once MTH discovers that every North Shore model they make sells out, they'll make additional runs with different numbers and eventually produce the entire all time roster of around 350 pieces. And there will be a significant number of people who will have them all.

5. Lionel will make a correct EMD E5 A-B that runs on O42 curves, and discover that 75% of the preorders are from the Chicago-Milwaukee area.