TCA coverage on page 22 of Oct. 2004 CTT

[brianel027]

Bob, I absolutely agree that it is hard to gauge what is happening. Both your magazine and the OGR have reported that starter train set sales are holding their own. Lionel says their set sales are going up. So this is a good sign, but hard to know the effects of this for the future... whether the sets are being bought for kids or for adults? Notice that the current selection of sets by K-Line seems to be equally divided between sets for adults and sets for beginners. And again, the road name selection for sets is still firmly set in the postwar era with a scant few exceptions.

I agree the Lionel 0-6-0T does look like a decent steamer and is reasonably priced to boot. But this is an item for folks with layouts already, not for first-time buyers, unless they are custom buying pieces to make their own set. It certainly is a bargain though, and has the potential to be the second loco on a beginners layout.

As far as the hit of the year, I think the RMT "Beep" already gets that honor. Hard to beat the price and quality of that one... even without the Lionel name on the box, it's such a bargain that it is attracting attention.

And as you said, there is some variety of affordable items between all the companies. Of course, it is a little bit from company A, and a little bit from company B, etc. It's when you look at a catalog from one single company and see the disproportionate levels between the affordable starter and the advanced trains that the direction of the hobby becomes obvious. I don't know if there's any concensus here, but in my observations, $200 seems to be the ceiling for many folks on a train set. For some today, that price is still a little high. So Lionel is the winner in this price range as far as selection.

MTH Railking was better in this department a few years ago, but since all their locos (except the Dockside) come with speed control, Railking set prices have moved upwards. The Dockside sets are the only ones in that $200 range. But folks aren't always aware of how well made sets these are... instead they see the set comes with little track and 3 cars total and they feel it's overpriced. Again, not to mention the Railking line is all over the place in scale and size. In my opinion, MTH should pu***he Rugged Rails line for starter sets and related traditionally sized items, with budget features and their normal quality.

Folks also look at the prices of separate sale track and turnouts. As much as RealTrax and FasTrack have distinct advantages for the newcomer, the stuff isn't the best value out there money-wise. And $50 for the MTH turnout is sticker shock for many novices. At least FasTrack has an affordable manual turnout.

K-Line still has some good bang for the buck in starter sets too. And the Train-19 cars. Well have to wait and see what happens with the "Kids O" stuff. But all these items are still lacking in some current road names.

Though I'm still blown away how popular the classic Santa Fe war bonnet scheme is with kids. I had one before I repainted it and kids always wanted to see that one run. BUT kids do recognize logos. And I've seen and heard the exitement when they see a CSX or NS loco and cars... "Look, that's the one that goes down the track by the highway!" It's important to build on the connection between the toy and the real thing. Sure, kids still love a toy steam engine too... they're fascinated by the movement and the smoke. But I'd say by my own personal observations, they get as excited by seeing some trains that loosely resemble what they can really see today too.

Williams does make great stuff too. We all know that. Industrial Rail also had the previous distinction of royaly ticking off the competition. I think we owe the very existence of the Train-19 and Rugged Rails cars to the Industrial Rail line (competition is grand, isn't it?). But after the 3 big boys, Williams has the least dealer availability.

So once again, it comes down to (in my view) perception of the hobby, availability of the product, product promotion, quality and price - not necessarily in that order. And it was great to see the TCA report in Classic Toy Trains. It's obvious everyone is aware something needs to be done. I think part of the problem also lies in the current intense competition between the companies (look how they all constantly duplicate each others advances and new scale product items) and that they can't afford to let their guard down for one catalog as far as keeping up with each other. And this investment ties up a lot of dollars... even if it means duplicating each other until someone goes belly up. Of course, I think this is part of everyone's "grand plan."

[Anonymous]

Gentlemen, trains is a business like any other business in this country, and all that counts is profit!

[Anonymous]

Could the real reason Atlas is a member if the MRIA be their long standing production and sales of HO and N trains?

Tony

[Bob Keller]

Actually, there are more affordable trains on the market than ever before. MTH has the RailKing line, K-Line has the Train 19 line, and Lionel continues to offer a selection of affordable rolling stock and locomotives. Oh, I think Lionel's new 0-6-0T will be the hit of the year - well made and priced to move.

Dare I mention Williams? Rolling stock and locomotives priced so low that it ticks off the competition.

The challenge become packaging and promoting the affordable trains and sets in one place. Don't make it hard for that family to get into trains. Make it easy for people to get all the information they need in one spot. Especially the range of current inexpensive products available.

But O gauge manufacturers won't ever do that. I believe that only one is a member of the Model Railroad Industry Association (Atlas), and Atlas is the only one participating in the World's Greatest Hobby Program.

Of course, the irony is that I'm pretty convinced that won't be any way to gauge how effective any program or publicity is for, oh, 20 years. When people go through the girls-college-family stage and re-enter it as a stress reduction program or whatever. It is a challenge, indeed.

[brianel027]

Bob, though other "collector" hobbies may suffer from the same lack of newcomer interest, our train hobby has a real advantage over comic books, stamps, coins, etc. of not being passive: this is a hobby to participate in, have fun with and learn from.

I wouldn't be so strong minded on this topic if I had seen on so many occasions, the excited children's faces from seeing my portable display layout... a layout with items that folks could afford to buy, a layout with a lot of creativity and no rope perimeter around the layout. What turns parents with young kids off time and time and time again is the high list prices advertised in the catalogs. It's at a point now where a 140 page catalog has 10-15 pages tops of affordable items a young family could buy. The rest of the stuff is premium product with premium prices aimed at the established market.

Go ahead folks, show any current catalog with prices printed to a parent with a young child and see what happens. They say "we can't afford $600 for a train engine!" Even though there may be one page with affordable engines, there are 25 more pages with engines that are clearly out of reach for most newcomers. THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM!

It's a problem of perception. People think this is a hobby for the wealthy. When folks hear the Lionel name, they know it means trains. They also associate the name with expensive, collectible trains.

It should be more than obvious that the collector days of this hobby are in a tail spin, as far as collectible prices are concerned. There's no shortage of items that were supposedly collectible only a few years ago that are being advertised as blowouts today... the Vapor Records cars, the Aquarium cars, limited edition cars, top-end locomotives, many of the post-war reissue cars, etc. Common sense folks - this stuff wouldn't be reduced in price if it were selling in the first place!!

The full page ads in CTT and OGR listing nothing but titles and product numbers mean scant little to a child, let alone his mom or dad. I'm certain that when a newcomer orders a train set from Train Express, it's because an already established modeler showed them the magazine, the ad and a catalog. Or the newcomer complained that the prices in the train shop were too high, and someone said "Hey, did you know you can save $80 on that set by getting it mailorder." (This also makes small dealers look like crooks, even though they have to price product based on their higher wholesale)

TO ALL THE TRAIN COMPANIES: If you are going to do 2 catalogs a year, make one catalog specifically aimed at the younger, beginner audience with only the items that are reasonable priced that they can afford. For the big players today, this will be a small catalog - BUT at least folks will look at it and not be overwhelmed with items they cannot afford nor would buy for a child's train layout regardless.

If I were in the board room of any of the companies, believe me, I'd be hootin' and hollerin' working and planning creative ways to reach new folks. National advertising is expensive, new product tooling is expensive, local dealer numbers are dropping, plus the legal battles going on in the hobby. And for whatever the reason, our trains just are NOT for sale in the established big box retailers around the country where many people do shop. Nor do I expect they will be, otherwise it would have been done by now.

Okay, work with what is available. There was never a Classic Toy Trains magazine a generation ago, nor was there an O Gauge Railroading magazine. There was no internet a decade ago. Everyone today, even folks not so well off, has a VCR or DVD player. Reach out to people with what you have. There are public and local TV stations that are always looking for programming... maybe a instruction piece on the hobby would be in order.

The perception of this hobby MUST change too! It isn't about collector values... it's about running trains FIRST.

The ONLY reason, the one and only reason any Lionel train is worth anything today is because kids years ago PLAYED and RAN Lionel trains. They know what they are... they have a frame of reference and they are buying back their childhood memories. THIS IS what DRIVES prices UP. The most collectible trains are the older ones. To me, it's such a joke when some train company makes something and advertises it is collectible. Manufacturers (or more correctly the importers) DON'T determine aftermarket collectibility... the CONSUMER does! Manufacturers can contribute by making product variations, uncataloged items and limited runs, but the consumer still determines what he or she is willing to pay for them later.

Lionel, K-Line, MTH, the TCA and others can talk about reaching newcomers. Don't talk about it... just do it. It can be done!!! The problem is...
-Do they want to risk angering the adult market by offering fewer scale, prototypical items in order to focus on growing the hobby?
-Do they want to risk angering the wholesaler network and large mailorder places by either offering wholesale incentives to small dealers, or angering EVERYONE by offering a consumer bonus incentive to customer directly through the company?
-Do they want to risk angering the collector associations by offering reproductions at more fair market prices based on actual production costs, not on possibly deflating the collector values of the original items?
-Do they want to risk being the only company that reduces selection of prototypical product and scale innovation for the sake of beginner product, while the other companies take advantage of that situation.
-Do they want to risk being known as a "toy train company" by the adult market... look at the lack of respect K-Line received until they ventured into the "scale prototype" arena. Look how only a few years ago the common criticism of Lionel was that they needed to catch up with MTH.
-And does the TCA want to risk angering it's core older collector constituency in order to grow the hobby by the loosening of regulations to allow more new and novice train enthusiasts to join?


Really, this is all up to the various manufacturers of trains whether they want a future or not. I think there has been some tremendous efforts already made by various groups, clubs and individuals around the country to introduce kids to trains. Folks on the OGR forum were doing this "trains for kids" thing a couple years ago... maybe they still do it.

The manufacturers have to decide that it is in their best interest to reach out to kids and newcomers with affordable, suitable quality product. They also have to decide to support their small local dealers (what few are left) or to reach out to the public by some other means. They have to focus far less on aftersale collector market prices and much more on current retail/wholesale prices.

Then the magazines, the clubs and organizations, modelers everywhere and these on-line Forums will all follow suit. We can hoot and holler all we want... we can go to train shows and display our trains... I guess folks can look for used K-Line and MPC-era trains, beater, etc.

Simply put, if the companies don't wi***o reach out to the kids, then it isn't going to happen. They have to want it first. And then they have to make a real effort to do it.

[cnw1995]

Brian, you are quite eloquent and also capture the dynamics of today's hobby. As Bob notes, the current demographic curve seems to be endemic to certain hobbies - heck, with apologies to those in it, hobbies like stamp collecting are essentially dead as both enthusiasts have passed away and newcomers have not been attracted to collecting. From my limited perspective, I am impressed at the continuing impact of trains in general and toy trains in particular on children (and even adults - it's was interesting to hear an awestruck report on Northlandz on NPR this morning.), and I'm optimistic by what's out there at retail outfits like Hobby Lobby or Hobby Towne USA. Our scale (and large scale) seems more 'noticeable' to younger children - especially with sound, lights and smoke. And like the old Lionel ads that Roger Carp deconstructed so well in his latest book, if you get a dad enthused about these items, a $200 train set suddenly looks affordable...I think the future of our hobby is a bit schizophrenic - or I guess will continue to develop on a broader and broader continuium. On one extreme, there will be well-heeled individuals interested in expensive (and profitable from a manufacturer's perspective) scale items - and more power to them...on the other extreme, there are those who are interested in more the toy side - which are still well-represented by train sets and items like the Beep (which I guess rely more on volume but still have a decent mark-up). As I lean more toward the latter (I would love to be the one of the former but will never have that kind of money), I am glad at the 'tolerance' displayed on this (and even on another) forum and in the magazines - in articles and with advertisers.

[Bob Keller]

Great overview.

BTW we aren't the only collecting area worried about the future.

Earlier in the year the magazine Comic Book Marketplace ran a story about their own attempts to widen the scope of their hobby. They set up at a national numismatic convention and gave away copies of their issue dealing with Uncle Scrooge McDuck - with McDuck and coins on the cover. They figured that the coin angle might interest some coin collectors to become comic readers.

While I'm not sure how effective that might have been – coin collectors tend to have just as much gray hair as train guys – but it shows that they were aware of the age problem and that something (anything) needed to be done to draw attention to their hobby and possibly catch the eye of some new blood.

[Anonymous]

[:)] Gold Star for Brian........[:)]

[brianel027]

One article that grabbed my attention in the latest issue of CTT was the one on page 22 on the TCA convention. The jist of the statements made were once again concerned with bringing newcomers into the hobby. My cynical side thinks this is a lot of hot air as this topic has been one of discussion ever since I reentered the train hobby some 14 years ago.

Of course, it is really impossible to know what effect starter sets and their reported increased sales are having (or will have) on the hobby. It is impossible to know who is buying these items unless they are bought in person at a shop and the shop dealer takes notice of this or has a discussion with the purchaser (might make useful statistical infomation). No doubt a certain percentage of these train items are being purchased by seasoned train hobbiests - especially when they are advertised as blowouts by mailorder outlets - for either breakup and/or resale as pieces on ebay or at shows.

But there were some interesting comments in the article...
*** Maddox of Atlas cautioned "not to expect prices to fall, not with production and labor costs rising overseas." Joe Hayter of Weaver commented on design improvements and scale-sized models saying "Those advances will demand more expensive tooling and smaller production runs, which will generate higher prices for individual items."

Of course, this is already happening. In my obversation, when Lionel announced the move to China in order to compete, it wasn't to lower overall prices (even though at the time, others offered lower list prices). But rather to have the income to devote to new scale product development. I think this has a lot to do with the overall price increases from almost everyone. The scale segment of the hobby is where the attention is right now. Not one importer is going to sit by and let the other bring out scale product that they don't have. There are countless recent examples of this. I think this is why we see so much duplication of scale detailed product... the competition between the companies is intense right now. Not enough buyers along with the poor economy isn't helping. And I'm certain the companies are feeling the financial effects from all the new expensive product tooling which probably doesn't pay for itself it just one prodcution run.

Paul Wasserman of the TCA said "bringing younger people into the hobby should be uppermost for all the manufacturers and collecting and operating associations." Mike Wolf of MTH said that he would work towards loosening restrictions on attending shows and joining the TCA.

This should have happened a decade ago. It didn't then and it probably won't now. I can't imagine any one company deciding to put more investment money into new starter product when the immediate competition is for the scale adult buyer. What items available today for newcomers are mostly rehashes of old tooling in mostly rehashes of long-established postwar railroad road names.

Not only that, but the "collecting associations" have been concerned with collecting and collector prices for far far too long. The old belief that if it says Lionel and comes in an orange and blue box, you'll be able to retire - just doesn't hold true in reality... now it's getting the sellers to believe that too. Newcomers are frightened away when they go to train shows and see the prices being asked for even well-used run-of-the-mill common items that most of us know are not worth those asking prices. A soda or beer box does not equal the orignal box. Sealed condition is not wrapped in a baggie or plastic wrap. Even the price guides I see seem to be out of touch with current reality.

Even the "operating associations" seem to me to be more concerned with the scale-detailed kinds of products with the latest electronic features.

Even Lionel dropped their offical kid's club some years back. It may not have been profitable, but what a loss for the hobby! And obviously a sign/admission of the direction the hobby has been taking, regardless of the talk to bring in more kids.

I do see some good things happening though:
Lionel has the best known name. The Polar Express and Thomas sets are good ideas. Lionel also has the widest range of list prices for starter sets. They should backup their local dealers more with some kind of incentive of lower wholesale prices on limited starter items that they know could have appeal to newcomers. Beginners don't see mailorder train shops... they see the local one. Seeing a display layout is one of the best tools for selling trains. FasTrack should be made in a smaller radius to accommodate more typical beginner layouts. If prices can't be brought down on TMCC, then either a "scout system" (as mentioned in the 1996 catalog) should be brought out or product upgrades made easier.

MTH Railking has the best solid quality sets out there in my opinion, though the prices also reflect this. MTH does have the IR control system (which I haven't used) but does seem like a excellent intermediate option to full command. MTH should expand a little on the Rugged Rails line and bring out a basic affordable set with their standard quality but without the additional electronics. They already have the tooling on many of the previously issued smaller less than scale Railking items. And some modern items too, like the attractive semi-scale SD90MAC. MTH also needs to put more definition on their "product scale." Railking product has been all over the place in size in recent years with the recent pu***owards scale. The Rugged Rails line has languished for the past few years... either a sign of keeping costs down or a sign it isn't selling that well.

K-Line for a while had the best selection of starter sets with affordable prices. I'm certain the new "Kids 0" line is made from existing dies from somewhere else with no investment costs, so it will be interesting to see what happens. The Fall Fair Days (an idea I had a decade ago) is a superb idea to promote K-Line product. I hope those $50 GP-9's are decent enough for the money. If they could hold that price year round or offer those as KCC items, that would be great. K-Line already has plenty existing of tooling that they could use.
K-Line also has their trend setting KCC Collectors Club which is the best deal out there. They should offer some kind of starter set as a KCC item. What a great idea to not only introduce folks to the hobby, but to K-Line product as well. The Keystone King cars are a decent idea at their $11 list. They would be a great idea had they been issued/associated with some products that are more current and contemporary. Even simply some current railroad lines. This goes for the Train-19 product too, which in my experience have the nicest operating trucks on any affordable product.

If Ready Made Toys can make a decent beginner engine in China for $50, why can't others. RMT deserves an award for "Best Product of the Year That Helped the Hobby." (Maybe even of the decade... time will tell!) So what if it isn't scale or prototype! It looks like it could be real... it looks like a train engine. If scale detail and prototype are your bag, then there is utterly, absolutely NO shortage of product made by everyone else to satisfy your needs. The "BEEP" is what it is, but mostly it is affordable quality when so much else is not. Boy oh boy, if Walter could afford to buy the Industrial Rail 027 tooling (if it were even available) .... "ding ding ding ding - honk honk" ... look out all other train companies! You've just been left at the station!

ALL THE COMPANIES need to put some modern road names on starter product instead of this infatuation with well worn postwar names. There has not been one single affordable set offered from K-Line or Lionel in Conrail, CSX, Norfolk Southern, CP Rail System, or BNSF in over a decade. Only Santa Fe, Chessie and the frequent issue Union Pacific (how ironic that they're the ones suing Lionel). MTH is the only company to see fit to offer some contemporary roads on starter sets.

ALL TRAIN SETS should have at least one operating car, even if it is a manually operating one. A tank car in a starter set isn't nearly as much fun as even a flat car or gondola. Even the Lionel manually operating bin dump car can offer a kid some additional play value (and parents look for this!) A button, bumper sticker or T-shirt in every kids train set is a cost effective way of target advertising. Imagine a kid wearing a shirt to school that says "I run Lionel Trains." Yeah, it costs money, but not as much as national media advertising.

ALL THE COMPANIES should focus on making improvements to their web sites with easy links for first time visitors that will lead them easily to the beginner product already offered. It's a computer literate society... gotta utlize that to its full advantage.

ALL THE COMPANIES should offer some kind of periodic video or DVD catalog, not only showing product, but showing kids demonstrating the product. It's okay to show a "BMW" layout, but they MUST also show a "Chrysler Neon" layout... the kind of layout that folks with kids can actually build. Nothing wrong with dreaming of that big layout, but every beginner needs to start somewhere. Most start with smaller less detailed layouts... they need to see these!! The Video catalogs could be advertised in magazines geared towards parents and kids... even if it were simply a display classified ad! The video could be either free or for sale with a price rebate when a train set is actually purchased.

ALL THE COMPANIES need to support the ever decreasing numbers of smaller local dealers they have. Small dealers are the key for beginners to actually see the product. They "say" they want small dealers... so give them some incentive wholsale prices with special product they can sell at a profit and at a discount to the consumer.

The command electronics are great and a boom to the operators today. The stuff needs to be reliable and work out of the box. One would think prices could be brought down on some of this stuff, but then again, we don't know what is really going in the profit/cost reports at the various companies. As I said above, the MTH IR System seems like an outstanding middle-of-the-road answer between full command and traditional control.

The train magazines might consider a special additional issue during the Fall months that could be on the stands for several months... an issue totally devoted to beginner product and beginner layouts with advertising in this direction. Maybe a joint venture with the TCA or the various companies that stand to benefit from something like this. The train companies know national TV and media advertising is out of reach financially... here's an alternative. Magazines as a rule get better distribution than books, even though Kalmbach already has some how-to-do-it books.

And all of us established modelers need to be a little more forgiving of the train companies. If they put more investment dollars into starter product, that may mean a few less scale items for the adults. Wouldn't that be good anyways? That's what we've been saying for a while now.

And we need to be a little more forgiving of the train magazines too. I think CTT already does a good balancing job between high end product, collector product and beginner beginner proudct. I see nothing wrong with a occasional feature article on topics that may be of little use to the pro, but are invaluable to the beginner.

Well just my humble observations... [:D] let the onslaught of criticism begin.