This is like Television show ratings. They have to be big or the show gets cancelled after 3 episodes.
The movie has to make 50% of its income in the first two weeks or it is called a flop by most news networks.
The immediate results and response race is becoming nerve racking in all products.
Andrew
Watch my videos on-line at https://www.youtube.com/user/AndrewNeilFalconer
Hmmm. I'm biased because I only buy Lionel - Thanks Dad!
As for quality mentioned in some posts, Lionel beats them all, sorry. As for features, Lionel beats them all, sorry. Yep, they're expensive, but since when has saving become a lost art?
Here's the deal. All manufacturers put out catalogs that they think will entice their customers. They probably produce 20% more than their pre-orders, maybe. If you want current products with the latest features, then pre-order from a LHS that offers the pre-order discount. If you need no support [I'm not a dealer, BTW] then buy wherever and deal with some product failures that are inevitable.
My mantra is to support my local guy, and buy from others as travel, so I have some keepsakes from the trips that I take with my wonderfully supportive wife. Otherwise, I use my hobby $$ wisely, and hope my local guys have what I want.
Lionel, et al, will do what makes them money, period. The romance of this hobby is on our side of the equation. It's a hobby guys, enjoy it in any way that makes you happy!
Cheers!
I don't know anything about pre-ordering just what everyone here seems to agree on. I also agree that they are beating the main RR's to death but Williams/Bachmann are producing stuff that Lionel, Weaver, and MTH are not like the Burlington line of Silver locomoyives which if you own a set of California Zephyrs are the only manufacturer you can get it from and all are very affordable. You don't have to wait 4 or 5 years to be able to afford it although they are barebones with only horn/bell or bell/whistle you can upgrade yourself. Comparing to some of lionels locos at double the price and feel like much lower quality. I have never benn impressed with Weaver's quality either and they are over priced just like lionel. On the other hand you can pickup a nice set made by MTH with all the bells and whistles for under $400.00. I bought a Santa Fe Superchief set for under 400 to include sales tax and it's awsome quality and performance. This is the set that launched me into the hobby as my PW F-3 were getting to hard to keep the maintainance up on them. Just my 2 cents I thought I would through in.
Can't stop working on the railroad!
I honestly don't think making trains in the U.S. would make a bit of difference in how much we like them or how many we buy. At this point, almost everything is made overseas and the American people are well-accustomed to buying their products without thinking about it.
Wal-Mart is really nothing more than the retail end of "China, Inc." anymore, as are most retailers. American consumers have absolutely no choice in this matter if they want to live a normal life.
We can all feel bad about it -- and it does have many very negative connotations -- but those are the facts on the ground and we have allowed it to happen over many decades now. For the most part, we have no one to blame but ourselves for the situation.
I think the trend of organized bulk custom runs as you inferred is a trend that puts customers in the direct drivers seat, and t noticed also that not only clubs and associations do this but as you mentioned, individuals with the skills to organize a custom run. I was questioning more than advocating why this direct solicitation of customers was not done. The custom run may be the only end run as to more RR's being available.
It would be interesting to simply see one of them as a one off promotion to conduct a poll on their website like the UP did for the routing of this summers excursion. The polling of selections from Midwestern and anthracite roads as potential choices would be, if anything, a relatively inexpensive way to do this ( I would think). A qualifier would be a statement that says a certain minimum number of votes would qualify a model to be considered, and then only if enough preorders are generated, would production proceed. .A sort of two stage process as a promotion. Maybe this is naive.The idea seems like fun and a break from the same traditional process.of selection. I was thinking more of color schemes than new engines etc.
This could be advertised in CTT as a link. to their catalog or what have you. It could draw in more customers. My nickel's worth for what its worth.
Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has.
The problem with direct questioning is this: How would you propose to do it? If you had the resources of a large company you could go in for stratified area random sampling and focus groups. Unfortunately, these methods require a lot of time and money and probably are out of the reach of even the largest of the toy/model train importers. The only economical methods are either direct mail - very poor odds of response - response rates typically in the 5-10% range, or a hyper-link for on line voting - response rates typically in the 15-25% range.
Either way there is the very big issue of voting vs. purchasing, and there is no guarantee that those self selected respondents are in any way representative of the actual market. These approaches have been cussed and discussed and even, on occasion, attempted over on the OGR forum and the results have been very mixed.
The most successful indpendent effort was by a guy with the screen name of VaGolfer1950 who, on his own, floated the idea of a one off custom run of National Bohemian Beer reefer cars from Atlas. He took a straw poll on the site and decided to pursue the effort. He was successful but if you want to get some idea of just how near run a thing it was you really should read the 40+ page thread on the subject. It is an object lesson in what anyone thinking about offering something away from mainstream probably has to face.
Scott Mann at 3rd rail routinely floats ideas concerning future projects on the 3rd rail site. He also takes the time to offer comments and updates on the OGR forum and also at York. There have been any number of projects he has proposed which, due to a lack of response and/or firm preorders have been cancelled. A couple of times after announcing a cancellation someone outside of 3rd rail has taken it upon himself/herself to try to revive interest in a cancelled project and every now and then has succeeded in doing so and 3rd rail ultimately produced the item albeit in very limited quantities. These items did sell out quickly but my impression (and please note this is just an unverified personal impression) is that the production run pretty much saturated the market demand for the item in question.
By way of comparison, Weaver manufactured a excellent model of the Lehigh Valley John Wilkes a number of years ago. Over time posts to various forums and want ads certainly gave the impression there was still sufficient demand for the John Wilkes to think about another run. I do know Weaver announced the intention to produce a second run and I also know it was cancelled. My understanding is this was due to a lack of firm pre-orders. Recently, Weaver announced a possible run of The Black Diamond, the sister engine to the John Wilkes. The Black Diamond streamlining is similar to the John Wilkes but still unique. I've put in a paid reservation and I do hope it will make it to production but if it doesn't I'll understand.
In addition to the Natty Bo thread mentioned above, If you would like additional thoughts on the whys and wherefores of pre-order and production I'd recommend trying to get to York and spend some time talking to Scott Mann of 3rd rail. He is very approachable, he is always in attendance at the 3rd rail booth in the Orange Hall at York, and he is quite willing to talk to anyone who drops by with questions.
I thought that pre-orders were a form of a pre-selected choice, like a predetermined menu..and what goes on the menu versus whats left off seems sort of old fashioned, if the customers are deciding what is produced anyway by the amount of orders, why not ask them more directly what is it that they want? That is, in a more direct manner..of course maybe there would be no consensus, yet the same rr's seem to be repeated as a hedge bet. IE If a lot of folks want the Reading it seems a safe bet they would sell more of them than say for example the PRR ( which I like but its been done to death) My last hi-rail was the PRR because I knew I could find the variety I wanted. If I did the Reading (which I also like) well..god luck, I dont have a decade to hold my breath so it comes down to RR's that are not only long gone but the same ones repeated. I dont have to name them but we all know what they are.I never understood why the buyers weren't more in the loop.I have a feeling that this is a very conservative traditionally run business model, or theres something I don't get..
I am glad you guys buy new stuff. I'll wait 10 years and buy it for 1/3 of what you paid.
Whatever floats your boat, fortunately I don't have to wait 10 years to buy something that I want and to enjoy today.
Bill T.
I guess it will be interesting to see what the Atlas Natty Bo reefer and the SMR General are selling for 10 years from now...I'll try to remember to check e-bay listings in 2021 for an update.
V8Vega Back in the days of my 783 Hudson for example often things went up in value. Those days are over. I am glad you guys buy new stuff. I'll wait 10 years and buy it for 1/3 of what you paid. Dennis San Fernando Valley CA.
Back in the days of my 783 Hudson for example often things went up in value. Those days are over. I am glad you guys buy new stuff. I'll wait 10 years and buy it for 1/3 of what you paid.
Dennis San Fernando Valley CA.
Ditto back just befor Christmas I bought a 6-31963 SP freight set new in box factory sealed. It list back in 2004 for $449.99 MSRP I paid 7 years later including shipping $225.00 1/2 price
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Seayakbill,
That's an interesting thought about asking Atlas or MTH to make something for say the Reading Company. Reading Lines wasn't just a short line, it was a major sized player in the 1950's, hauling up to 1/6 of the freight for the northeast region. Or I could ask about Philadelphia and Reading RR from the mid 1870's.
Lee F.
It seems that some companies flood the model train market with major railroad name items like; NYC, Pennsy, Santa Fe, BNSF.
It seems that Lionel more so than MTH and Atlas sticks with the major national RR's. Thats what I like about MTH and Atlas is that you will see more of the short lines and regional carriers. I had hounded Mike Wolf for years to put out some scale Spokane Portland & Seattle locos and rolling stock. Over the last 5 years MTH has done F-3's, RS-3's, Alco Pa's, the giant Z-6 Challenger and a 10 car Heavyweight passenger set for the Spokane Portland & Seattle. I guess he got tired of me bugging him.
Maybe pre-orders are a market research tool but I don't think it is the only market research tool used by some companies. It seems that some companies flood the model train market with major railroad name items like; NYC, Pennsy, Santa Fe, BNSF.
I don't know who decicdes what to make but a lot of new stuff seems to be re-issues of popular items from a few years ago. Even Williams by Bachmann is being too conservative as well(), almost looks like some railroad names are being phased out by Williams, the smaller(when I say smaller, I mean they didn't traverse coast to coast) or regional RR's.
I've always thought that pre-orders were a form of market research. I can't speak for MTH or Lionel but I do know that pre-orders make or break a decision to produce an item for many of the other train importers. Over the years I've pre-ordered a few 3 rail brass engines and after some lapse of time I've been informed that not enough pre-orders had been made and the item was canceled.
Thanks for helping me sort this out. It sounds like volume sales through several channels makes the smaller mom and pop local hobby shop strictly based on off the shelf purchases, ( depending on the urban versus country setting=foot traffic) a very tough proposition. How much things have changed for those of us who have been around "forever". You know, the last thing that mystify 's me is how seemingly random is the process of what gets produced, what model is made. It seems like it's simply based on past production runs, what has sold in the past. I know that these times are different in the economy..I see that Williams by Bachman is playing it very conservative in their "new" offerings. My question is what seems to be the shortfall in this for the manufacturers is market research, what do the customers want, what is the model they want produced..it seems like if they had an accurate reading, their profits would be higher..There doesn't seem to be any, or is there?.
I know that pre-ordering is here to stay but it is not for me, sometimes over half the stuff in a catalog doesn't get produced! I am not enticed to do pre-ordering, as I see items that never get made, or the item is three years late, like Lionel engines.
Over half the time you need to put up a deposit so the place can order your item. I don't mind if it is Gargraves or Ross Custom switches as I know the stuff will be made soon.
I would rather go to train shows or hobby shops and buy what I can put my hands onto.
Preordering has been around for quite some time. I'd guess at least the mid-1980's, if not earlier. I used to order a few items out of each catalog. There were two major benefits to pre-ordering. The dealers I worked with always gave an extra discount to folks who pre-ordered. And if the item turned out to be hot, I was assured that I would get one at a reasonable price. On the down side, a few items seemed to instantly tank, and could be had for less than the preorder price. As has already been posted, as the catalog grew preordering became more important, as the market could no longer absorb full runs of so many different products. With the exception of the occasional blow-out, I stopped buying newly made trains a few years ago. I have enough pieces to run. Today's prices, combined with questionable quality and parts availability, have turned me off to new product.
Does the name K-Line ring a bell ?
I got both of my K-Line Mikados for less than $300 ea when inventory was being blown out thru a couple of the major internet retailers. Some of the current pre-order decisions mite have been influenced by K-Line's results as well as LGB, Maerklin, etc. Prices going up but the overall market size has probably shown little if any growth in the number of active participants.
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In most cases the hobby shop takes the lost. But I don't believe they will list it less than there cost. They usually sell all they have even i it means going to cost. this is where the smaller hobby shop takes a beating as the bigger ones ( Charles ro for example) get a bigger discount when buying as they buy in such large volume.
A lot will look at what there customers are preordering and that gives them an idea how it will sell and order more because it a big interest or order like one or two because very few were preordered.
Then you have some that are part of a distribution system where they have a small store but have internet sales and they give a discount as they never have to keep that much in inventory the distribution system ( warehouse) does and if you order from there on line store they just have it dropped ship to you with there name and address on it.
They base their production runs on preorders. If there are not enough orders the item gets the axe. The LHS or train store does the same, they order what their customers have an interest in. So it benifits the customer to preorder if it's an item he/she really wants. It helps the Mfg. decide on what goes to market and what doesn't. Even Lionel of old based their production runs on preorders.
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I assume that Hobby shops then must either project accurately how popular an item will be in their own pre-ordering, or focus on being a conduit for pre-ordering by customers.I wonder where that balance is, as I noticed that the large volume dealers ( hobby shops) seeming carry older catalog items for a comparatively long time and then when they advertise a close out items, presumably on unsold inventory there don't seem to be across the board deep discounts. Is the inventory then returned for credit or is it sold to a secondary market? Who takes the loss on the unsold inventory? The hobby shop or the manufacturer or both? It sounds like just in time manufacturing has turned into just in time marketing tied to production runs, which then I wonder if there is X finite amount of a production run, is this a calculated lowball volume as a means to keep a return on investment high..due to a high demand and low inventory? Is this another reason the cost of trains keep going up beyond other reasons, as a return on investment hedge by manufacturers.? This whole thing is interesting and sort of an enigma to me..I never really heard a cogent explanation of all this.
Overall I think it refers back to your thread about hobby shops. Kids just aren't interrested enmasse in trains like they were in the first half of the 20th century. One documentary I have calls the building of the UP/CP transcontinental line "The space race of the 18th century." Back in those days not much was more high tech than steam locomotion, and it captured the attention of everybody young and old alike. Look at all the attention the streamliners got when they first started appearing in the mid 30's. Marx even went so far as to keep advertising their sets as "streamlined" until the end of the 50's at the very least and maybe even later. I can't say exactly when that title dissapeared from their sets, I'm not a Marx expert. (But I am a closet Marxist. ) So with fewer kids interrested in railroads in general, it only makes sense to assume that sales would be down.
However, I wonder if it would be different if they were made in the USA. At least as far as martketing strategies is concerned. Think about it this way, if you have all (or close to it) of your product made overseas under someone else's roof, your orders to that factory will have to be entirely based on projections about the interrest in a particular model. Companies like Lionel may save overhead by not having everything in-house, but a lot of that benefit gets eaten up by shipping costs. Especially with fuel prices being so high. But, if you didn't have to worry about shippng issues, which would have to include insurance against containers falling off ships mid-pacific, and could produce product at home based on demand, would that negate the pre-ordering? I'd like to think so, but maybe I'm just being simplistic.
Anyhoo, I pre-ordered only one item in my collecting lifetime, an MTH Dreyfuss Hudson.
Becky
Trains, trains, wonderful trains. The more you get, the more you toot!
Pre-orders that dictate production probably goes all the way back to Lionel's Richard Kughn's era. I believe that as MTH became a bigger player in O Gauge lack of pre-orders resulted in more cancellations. Now it seems like production of higher end priced items by MTH, Lionel, and Atlas get the green light based on pre-orders.
Can't blame em, they are in busines to be profitable and if they are cataloging a locomotive and only a few orders come in for it why waste valuable production time on it.
I don't get it. Off the shelf sales were the thing for most of my time in the hobby. I keep getting pre-order advertisements via e-mail, which is fine..but there seems to be a growing amount of them..The old adage of under-promising and over delivery seems not to apply to pre-orders from what I can read from other threads in terms of production cancellations, extended delivery dates and so forth.To some this is fine and obviously there are just as many who bemoan this.
Since I don't deal with new product anymore but am still interested in the hobby overall, when did this trend begin, and more importantly, is this now a standard market model for sales? Is this related to limited production runs due to a slow economy? Which is the driver these days, pre-orders or off the shelf sales? Does anybody have a handle or a good guess if this is temporary or the wave of the future? I don't "get" the dynamics involved.
When did this begin? Was it Lionel or MTH that began this or was it customer driven? If you don't pre-order, does this mean that it's unlikely to find the item in stock?
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