So sharp. I cut myself on the edge.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
That's me....the "Bleeding Edge" of contemporary culture.
Convicted OneThat's me....the "Bleeding Edge" of contemporary culture.
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Meet the new boss...
Erik_Magtloc52 The flu does not kill more. Per the CDC for flu season 10/2019 to 3/2020 there were 64000 deaths. That's for a typical flu season, the 1918-1920 flu killed over 500,000 in the US alone.
The Covid-19 is not done yet. We are only 3 or 4 months in depending on when you start.
Electroliner 1935 Erik_Mag tloc52 The flu does not kill more. Per the CDC for flu season 10/2019 to 3/2020 there were 64000 deaths. That's for a typical flu season, the 1918-1920 flu killed over 500,000 in the US alone. The Covid-19 is not done yet. We are only 3 or 4 months in depending on when you start.
Erik_Mag tloc52 The flu does not kill more. Per the CDC for flu season 10/2019 to 3/2020 there were 64000 deaths. That's for a typical flu season, the 1918-1920 flu killed over 500,000 in the US alone.
100K dead in less than 4 months - some hoax.
Remember medicine is a century more advanced now than it was for the flu of 1918-1920.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
The Spanish Flu had three waves, the second being the deadliest. Primarily because of military troop movements. And how it got its name.
I hope the Israeli mathematician is correct in determining that Covid19 loses its punch after 8 weeks whether precautions have been taken or not.
BaltACD Remember medicine is a century more advanced now than it was for the flu of 1918-1920.
Heck, medicine is also a lot more advanced that say 1980 when the AIDS/HIV epidemic hit, took more than a decade to get past where an HIV positive diagnosis was effectively a death sentence. With SARS-CoV-2, the genome was sequenced shortly after the infection rate started getting serious in China, though it didn't help that China was lying about human to human transmission and the WHO was repeating those lies.
For a very thorough review of vaccine progress and challenges, I recomend:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/26/1002191/how-show-a-coronavirus-vaccine-prevents-covid-19/?truid=95bb63d1e5ef40a3324ade71e31f9428&ut
GrampThe Spanish Flu had three waves, the second being the deadliest. Primarily because of military troop movements. And how it got its name.
Actually, the Spanish Flu got it's name because the first newspapers to report about it were Spanish. Since World War One was in progress at the time papers in the warring countries were censored so news of the flu was surpressed, until it got too big to put a lid on. Spain, on the other hand, was a neutral so there wasn't any press censorship. The downside was Spain got stuck with the name, the disease hadn't originated in Spain at all.
[quote user="Overmod"]
charlie hebdo Certain political figures appear to want to minimize the expert opinions for their own personal benefit. SAFETY FIRST!
That is very true, and I add the emphasis for agreement.
My problem is that there are many more figures, political and otherwise, who appear to want to maximize, or indeed overexaggerate or outright fake, actual 'expert opinions' for their own benefit ... be that personal, corporate, or otherwise.
(I would also mention that I have had considerable, firsthand experience with 'politically' related academic research in the biomedical sciences, and the variety of issues and problems produced thereby even by people with spotless technical credentials. I consequently remain firmly in the 'trust, but verify' group when it comes to science as reported in media or without hard documentation -- without requiring that anyone else share my opinions or even be persuaded by them.)
Some more evidence of those superior credentials:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/
Of course some people will claim this is all Trump meddling, or something like that.
[/quote]
Just spent 4 days over in S.E. Kansas with my wife, her sister, and our annual 'Family Duty' exercise. Memorial Day, and placing flowers on our deceased family graves..... This year of course, it was a vastly different experience than normal; face masks, social distancing, and the like. Over there, not so much-face masks, but head nods to the other protocols. All exhibit a large amount of social frustration!
After reading some of the posts on this Thread, a lot of that 'social' frustration seems to rear its ugly head here. But I find one thing that I have to admit...For one time I am in agreement with not on Charlie Hebdo and Zugmann on both their noted positions...
I think that the major problem we are facing with this whole problematic situation, is not necessarily the science, but one of personal positions---AGENDAS!
Primarily, positions that have been politically weaponized... a form of social poisoning; to frame those individual agendas.
EuclidIt is as if there is a system that Fauci is a part of, and that system just does not want him to say what he just said.
With the way the media prides itself as a "shark tank" of sorts, saying too much has a downside.
EuclidDr. Fauci warns of irreparable damage if the lockdowns remain too long. But nobody wants to say just what it is that would be irreparably damaged.
It strikes me Dr. Fauci is speaking of economic damage and governmental damage, especially on the state and local level. I guess. Only he knows what he really means.
Does he think the lockdowns and mandatory separations have to end now to stave off disaster but he doesn't really want to come right out and say so? Again, only he knows.
The state level damage is occurring now, with state employee layoffs and furloughs, since the tax revenue isn't there to pay them. Kean University in New Jersey has had to eliminate its music program since there isn't the money to pay for it. What other programs in other colleges will follow is anyone's guess.
Thanks, Flintlock76, for the added detail. Should've mentioned the troops getting the Flu was info the involved countries didn't want to be made known. Hence neutral Spain ended up getting the "blame".
I suspect Fauci was also considering the myriad other medical conditions that have been crowded out and are festering by focusing on lockdowns for Covid.
Gramp I suspect Fauci was also considering the myriad other medical conditions that have been crowded out and are festering by focusing on lockdowns for Covid.
BINGO! Add not keeping up with vaccinations. Also note that "elective surgery" does not mean cosmetic surgery but any surgery that is not immediately needed to save someone's life.
Couple this with increased calls to suicide hotlines, increased suicide attempts, drug and alcohol addiction. Ther are good statistics on how death rate increases with increasing unemployment.
Lockdowns kill people and should only be imposed as long as the lockdowns save more lives by reducing infection rates than are lost by the lockdown itself. They made sense when not much was known how SARS-CoV-2 was spread, now that there is a lot more data it is time for a more focused approach.
Re-
https://www.businessinsider.com/anthony-fauci-irreparable-damage-stay-at-home-too-long-2020-5
It is a spectacular performance of Fauci and the news reporting taking a “have it both ways” position on the most polarizing issue we currently face. Obviously that issue is polarized by the power of the President opposed to the slightly greater power of Dr. Fauci.
But even more interesting is what this performance indicates about the nature of the economic risk we are taking by shutting down nearly all economic production for what is likely to be a span of 6-10 months at least; and then printing trillions of dollars in order to have our cake and eat it too.
Anybody who is paying attention realizes that this is the hydrogen smart bomb of economy busters. Both Trump and Fauci know this. Both know that the fuse has been lit, but the free money society does not even know there is a bomb.
Both Trump and Fauci also know that when this goes off, it will be clearly the fault of Dr. Fauci and not Trump. So this requires Dr. Fauci to take out a small insurance policy be being able to say he was not 100% in favor of locking down until all the risk has disappeared.
EuclidAnybody who is paying attention realizes that this is the hydrogen smart bomb of economy busters. Both Trump and Fauci know this. Both know that the fuse has been lit, but the free money society does not even know there is a bomb.
This has to rank as one of the all-time great mixing of metaphors of this (and perhaps any) era. I love the implication if a 'hydrogen smart bomb' but it's a technological oxymoron; the idea of 'lighting a fuse' to trigger such a device is charming but ridiculous.
I suspect there are multiple 'bombs' involved in wrecking various parts of the economy 'as we know it' -- some of which have already gone off, with sufficient effect to wreck the economy over time, or push it into the kind of singularity easily exploited by those with sufficient means, power, or cunning. How much of the existing 'middle class' survives even the collapse so far without being pushed into dead-end subsistence jobs will be interesting to see, as will the effect on consumption patterns.
Something I find interesting is that very specific coherent actions across multiple disciplines are needed for this "restarting" -- complicated by the fact that we have to guard against resurgence of infection nearly as carefully as we 'should have' after the initial outbreak. These things are not rocket science to determine, but they do need careful forethought to be properly synergistic, and some very easily substituted shortfalls could be catastrophic. I note very little of this from either the Trump administration's machinery or from the 'medical establishment' spokesfolks, which would verge on the ridiculous if it weren't so needlessly sad, but I see effectively none from the 'usual suspects' critics of Trump and his political prospects, either -- which I find regrettably but predictably typical of that group. I'd have thought at least one of the folks in the big-blue-wave transformed House to be proposing omnibus directed-recovery legislation, or at least the equivalent of 'enabling laws' to make their likely-compulsory methodologies legitimate ... ah, well, it's still a ways to the election. Perhaps once Biden has been machinated out and Trump no longer a factor we'll see some action belatedly appear, but I'll bet it'll be defective in the usual ways.
EuclidBoth Trump and Fauci also know that when this goes off, it will be clearly the fault of Dr. Fauci and not Trump
Well, duh...
Please name one thing in Trump's life, ever, that was his fault.
The man is "perfect." Don't you get it?
Now, when it comes to credit & praise....
I don't believe Dr. F. Is worried about or is hinting at the economy. My belief is that the isolation has triggered bouts of depression in the population that we will never be able to account for and will have with us forever.
No matter the bounce back of the economy, the Stock market is not a reflection or indicator of the economy, the every day person working is. They are not spending because rightfully they are scared. If we can get to 10 million still unemployed at Xmas that will help, but JMO, we won't. I think what will happen around September/October 2020 in the USA we will see the biggest Bankruptcy filings ever as the creditors will be relentless in the pursuit of their payment. The 4 day work week floating about won't allow folks the ability to payback their bills. No employer(a few)is going to pay a 32 hour workweek with 40 hours money. Be good, be safe.
TomO
I am convinced that the public generally has no idea a recession is coming. Recessions are often predictable, but hardly anyone recognizes their approach until they arrive. That is why my hydrogen bomb needs a lit fuse as an analogy for something that is in the process of being delivered, but is not yet recognized.
As we are taught by the housing bubble, it does not take much of an issue to trigger a massive recession. All it takes is a little “irrational exuberance” as Mr. Greenspan once said about the bubble that he first described as froth.
And as bad as it can be, it goes right over the heads of those who retain their gainful full time employment. But to those selling business services, it is like losing a limb. It is very bad when it happens, but you get over it and life goes on.
What we face now will make the bubble recession seem like a warm summer breeze. And unlike the bubble recession, the general public has no inkling about the impending recession which will be less like a bubble and more like the world on fire.
Of course, the big problem is that everyone will run out of money. Robust economies don’t just happen. They are built over time by blood, sweat, and risk taking. It is the height of arrogance to think that economies can be simply shut off and restarted when convenient. There is a price to be paid for the time shut down. So when the geniuses say it is time to restart, it will not start as expected.
Another part of the arrogance of thinking we can order the economy to march to our tune is the silly notion that we can just stimulate our way to recovery. This notion is as silly as the idea that we can turn off the economy and simply restart it like an electric motor. Where do we get such naiveté?
tloc52 I don't believe Dr. F. Is worried about or is hinting at the economy. My belief is that the isolation has triggered bouts of depression in the population that we will never be able to account for and will have with us forever. No matter the bounce back of the economy, the Stock market is not a reflection or indicator of the economy, the every day person working is. They are not spending because rightfully they are scared. If we can get to 10 million still unemployed at Xmas that will help, but JMO, we won't. I think what will happen around September/October 2020 in the USA we will see the biggest Bankruptcy filings ever as the creditors will be relentless in the pursuit of their payment. The 4 day work week floating about won't allow folks the ability to payback their bills. No employer(a few)is going to pay a 32 hour workweek with 40 hours money. Be good, be safe. TomO
Interesting observations and predictions, as opposed to the bizarre postings from Bucky and the mostly "Besserwisser" remarks from our Jack of all trades.
I would only add that the primary beneficiaries of the stimuli are, as usual, large corporations, who are also following Rahm Emauel"s advice of not letting a crisis go to waste. In this case by drastically cutting labor.
Report from Israel's Health Ministry excerpted from The Times of Israel website:
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Israel increased by 19 between Friday mid-morning and Saturday evening, Health Ministry data showed Saturday, after over a week of under 50 daily infections.
Two new deaths were recorded since Friday morning, bringing the nation’s toll to 268 by Saturday evening. There were no details on the identities of those who died.
The total number of cases as of Saturday evening stood at 16,608. Of them, 12,855 have recovered from COVID-19, meaning the number of active cases was down to 3,485.Of those ill with the virus, 59 were in serious condition, 49 of them on ventilators. Another 40 were in moderate condition with the rest displaying mild symptoms, the ministry said.The ministry said 5,671 virus tests were conducted Friday. Israel has the lab capacity to test up to 15,000 people for COVID-19 daily but demand has gone down as fewer suspected cases show up to have swabs taken, the Health Ministry said last month.The number of new infections has slowed dramatically in recent weeks. Israel has gone 14 days without seeing over 100 new confirmed cases in a single day.Amid the sustained drop in infections, the government has increasingly rolled back restrictions meant to curb the outbreak, opening some schools and allowing many businesses to reopen, and was reportedly planning more such measures.Israel’s education system was set to return to full operation on Sunday in most of the country after some two months during which Israeli children were ordered to stay home in order to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Additionally, authorities were bracing for a possible second wave of infections after thousands of ultra-Orthodox men gathered Monday night and Tuesday in Jerusalem, Beit Shemesh and Mount Meron to celebrate Lag B’Omer in violation of guidelines.Hundreds also gathered at a funeral Tuesday for an IDF soldier killed during a West Bank raid.Violations have been reported across the country, from passengers crowded on a domestic flight to Eilat to thousands of beach-goers who ignored the closure of the shores amid unseasonably sweltering weather.
What recovery looks like
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/05/29/coronavirus-survivors-battle-ongoing-symptoms-might-never-same/5215914002/
Update from Israel: An unarmed, 32-year old autistic Palestinian man was shot dead by police personnel in East Jerusalem while walking to his special needs school.
BBC News - Autistic Palestinian shot by Israeli police buried amid revenge call https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52876014
Generally, the cause of recessions is a slowing of economic growth, and that happens for a variety of reasons, and sometimes several of those reasons together are the cause. Often there is widespread disagreement about the cause of a recession.
I conclude that there are two reasons for the recession we are now entering:
The new tariffs on products imported into our country from China.
The intentional shutdown of our economy to stop the pandemic.
I have never seen a recession that has such a clear cause as this one does. I doubt that many people see any issues about the tariffs, and so that cause will largely go unrealized. Yet, I believe the consistent slowdown all through 2019 was caused by the increasing China tariffs in that year. Now, the shutdown gives massive fuel to that already forming recession cause by the tariffs.
However, the most effective way to produce a recession is to intentionally shut off the economy as we have done. Never have we done that before, and I doubt that most people have even considered the outcome. But the effect of the cause of a recession is always delayed until it ripples through. In the case of our developing recession, I doubt that anybody except some economists anticipate it because the effect has not yet rippled through to be perceptible. To the general public, the developing recession is practically invisible.
Yet, never in recent world history, has a cause for recession been so clear and extreme. So when the recession effect finally begins to be felt by the public, the reaction will be strong and loud.
The only problem with a widespread economic collapse is that individuals can lose everything they own. There is no safe haven. Everyone’s wealth exists subject to conditions. Economic collapse will change the terms of those conditions.
Besides the effects of the economic shutdown and the tariffs, there is a third factor that will play a big role. That is the absurd belief that massive government spending can kick start the economy out of a recession. The recession becomes a pretext to do what governments love most, and that is to spend public money. That is where the prosperity of the organization of Government lies.
In this recession, our government actually believes that the tariffs have no downside on our economy, but rather, are even a source of revenue propelling us to great wealth. With thinking like this, we are likely to miss any opportunity to sidestep the coming economic disaster that will soon make itself felt.
Charlie, I question your motives in posting this news item. It does not belong on this Forum, but I am forced to post my discussion with a fellow MIT Graduate who, like me, has spent a lifetime fighting racism.
I can report that I do usually use public transportation returning from the Yeshiva to my apartment, and often I am the only passenger on the Egged 48 bus. But there is less walking, even though much longer and far less direct, to use the Arab 275 or 255 bus to Damascus Gate, light rail to Givat HaTachmoshet ("Ammunition Hill"} and then the Egged bus to my apartment. So I do that on occasion, also. Even though I am 88, nobody has stopped me from using the transit systems. I do wear a facemask outside of either the Yeshiva or my apartment.
The Yeshiva requires "Social Distancing." but not face-masks.
daveklepper Charlie, I question your motives in posting this news item. It does not belong on this Forum, but I am forced to post my discussion with a fellow MIT Graduate who, like me, has spent a lifetime fighting racism. I am attaching my book manuscript, Jews have green hair, because it includes my \ experience with racism. And there is racism in Israel too. But most of my Israeli-born friends are not racists. The teller most friendly tome at my local Israeli bank branch (I'm 88-years old, and he always insists I jump to the head of the line at his window) is a very black Ethiopian- descent.man. I'm horrified by the killing the USA which set off violent protests. There have been very little of this kind of protest for a similar tragedy at the Old City here in Jerusalem. Why no violent protest here, just protests? Because even Israeli Arabs realize that "Palestinian" leaders lhave as much responsibility for the death of this impaired young man, by these leaders constant calling for them to perform acts of terror against Israeli Jews, in conformance with the distortion of what was a tolerant religion until the time of the notorious Mufti HaajHusseini, friend of Hitler. Even the victims of the tragedy, the parents of the impaired young man, appear to understand that and are not willing to be used by the anti-Semitic PLO and Hamas. But I'll not walk around the Old City with a cell-phone in my hand in case a cop thinks it's a gun.
Your tone of indifference in response suggests you didn't even read the BBC article or Haaretz.
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