An Over-reaction?

[blue streak 1]

Anti virals are the only thing that will help but not a cure.  I believe that so far there is only one person has been treated to be free of HIV ?   Let us hope a vacine can be produced before every person  that will catch covid=19 does catch it.

[charlie hebdo]

Nice news, if it were substantiated, but definitely not available now or in the near term. 

However,  Israeli researchers have made claims for not only cures and vaccines for AIDS,  but also cancer in recent years. 

https://pesacheck.org/false-israeli-doctors-have-not-found-a-vaccine-and-cure-for-hiv-and-aids-c2c255bcafbb

Possibly what they called a cure was simply putting an HIV positive person on a treatment cocktail (immunosuppresants and/or protease inhibitors) which would drop the viral load to "undetectable" in two weeks.  That phenomenon has been occurring for years,  but is not a cure,  as discontinuing the meds causes the viral load to rebound. 

[charlie hebdo]

Deleted

[daveklepper]

A posting several pages back stated that there is no cure for a virus and that there is no cure of AIDS.

There was an announcement serveral months ago in the Jerusalem Post that israeli doctors have developed a cure for AIDS.  There may be material that can be Googled on the internet, and those interested can look it up.

An Israeli firm and a Texas firm are both promising a vacine for Coronavirus. I do not know if this is a case of "who gets there first," or if they will collaborate for the common good.

[daveklepper]

Copied from the L-line Sandy Repair thread on the Transit Forum:

Coronavirus: Our latest

 

Currently, we are operating our trains and buses at normal service levels. At the same time, we are following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, which include taking and recommending steps to help prevent the spread of the virus. Resources For the latest information regarding novel coronavirus: http://cdc.gov/coronavirus To sign up for e-alerts from New York City, text COVID to 692692 (messaging rates may apply)  For our latest service status and information: https://new.mta.info/coronavirus What we're doing Daily, we’re cleaning all subway cars, commuter trains, and buses, such that the entire MTA fleet is disinfected at least every 72 hours. In all stations, we’re cleaning and disinfecting frequently used surfaces twice a day. We’re working with the governor and state and federal health authorities to coordinate prevention efforts and share information with employees and you. What you can do Limit travel or avoid it altogether. We must slow the speed of the virus to maintain our healthcare resources. So if you're healthy, that's great, but you could carry the virus and spread it to people who are not.  If you must travel, do it when it’s less busy, or wait for a less crowded bus, subway or train car. Follow the CDC prevention guidelines here. Based on the information they have, they believe the virus spreads through person-to-person contact, such as "people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)" and "through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes."

 

[charlie hebdo]

A recent study from Germany shows that people in early stage,  asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic where viral shedding occurs are about one thousand times more infectious to others than someone with SARS was. 

Caution is far safer than acting with complacency .

[blue streak 1]

My point is 

1. Do not panic

2.  Plan for the worse

3.  hope for the best and how many will not or just get a mild case.

4.  Probably some where between 2 and 3.

5.  No one yet knows how many persons will get Covid-19 ?  

6.  The isolation that is being set up now is very important so that there will not be a spike in cases over whelming the health care system.

7.  Number 6 will mean the epidenic will streach out over a longer time period.  That means  some of us do not sick in April but may in August.  Maybe some anit-viral will be developed or one already in service might be useful ?  But this is all speculation but just go back to #1 and prepare for the worse.

[charlie hebdo]

What's your point?  Yes, Sars-CoV-2 is related, but not the same through mutation and recombination.  But the SARS mortality rate that was quoted by McFarlane at 35% was wrong.  It also was less widespread with a lower total number of deaths. 

[blue streak 1]

charlie hebdo

 The SARS mortality rate was about 10%, not 35% as stated erroneously by Mr.  McFarlane, , but was much less tranmissable.  Hopefully if you got Sars you may bee at least somewhat immune ?

 

 

If you read the CDC bulletin Covid-19 is a Sars group  derivative and it seems to be very transmissiable ! 

[Convicted One]

BaltACD

I am of the opinion that as a society we have become 'too clean'. The  Immune System is the figher of the human body.  Like all fighters it needs to be exercised to stay 'sharp' and 'in shape' to be able to do its job.  Humans living in a agrarian society were surrounded on a daily basis with all sorts of 'attackers' that the immune system would spar with and remain active. 

Reminds me of that episode of  "Married with Children" where Peg won a week's personal training from "Jim Jupiter: the healthiest man in Chicago", and within the week he had descended to her level and died.

I think there is some truth to what you say, but in contrast we have made quite a bit of progress in other areas, so I guess we get to a "pick your poison" type scenario.

[charlie hebdo]

zugmann

Just curious - do you have any medical training?

 

The SARS mortality rate was about 10%, not 35% as stated erroneously by Mr.  McFarlane, , but was much less tranmissable. 

[charlie hebdo]

Given your opinion,  perhaps you should throw caution to the winds.  Transmission is mostly close contact,  not really airborne. 

Here are some numbers you should consider, however. 

Most cases and deaths in China (population 1.39 billion) were in one province, Hubei, population 58.5 million. 

Number of cases/deaths in China: 80,552/3,042

Hubei:  67,592/ 2931. Lethality rate = 4.3%  

[BaltACD]

charlie hebdo

In the first half of the 20th century and earlier,  a lot more people died of infections and childhood diseases,  especially prior to introduction of the various vaccines such as for polio, smallpox, etc

I am not saying that the immune system doesn't need help along the way.  It seems that all people involved in physical activity need help along the way - caffeine, PED's or some other form of assistance.  The various vaccines that have been developed over the years are the PED's for the immune system.  But even with PED's, the immune system needs regular 'road work' and sparring to continue to do it's job properly.  The PED's that one gets are those that are acknowledged to be ones that the immune system doesn't have a knock out punch as a defense against.  The immune system is not infallible and as man's knowledge of disease and contagion has increased we have learned some of the situations where the immune system alone is inadequate to protect the body.

[charlie hebdo]

In the first half of the 20th century and earlier,  a lot more people died of infections and childhood diseases,  especially prior to introduction of the various vaccines such as for polio, smallpox, etc

[ATLANTIC CENTRAL]

BaltACD

I am of the opinion that as a society we have become 'too clean'. The  Immune System is the figher of the human body.  Like all fighters it needs to be exercised to stay 'sharp' and 'in shape' to be able to do its job.  Humans living in a agrarian society were surrounded on a daily basis with all sorts of 'attackers' that the immune system would spar with and remain active.  In the urban enviornments of a century ago there were more than enough opponents to keep the immune system working to protect us.

50 or 60 years ago did we EVER hear of all the common food allergies that seem to afflict children (for the most part) in todays world.  Children, I hypotheses, that have been raised in a 'hyper clean' situation where their immune system has been 'looking for a fight' and instead of finding a real opponent of disease or other contagion has picked on a food source just to have something to fight.

I am not a doctor and have had NO MEDICAL TRAINING - YMMV.

 

Agreed

[BaltACD]

I am of the opinion that as a society we have become 'too clean'. The  Immune System is the figher of the human body.  Like all fighters it needs to be exercised to stay 'sharp' and 'in shape' to be able to do its job.  Humans living in a agrarian society were surrounded on a daily basis with all sorts of 'attackers' that the immune system would spar with and remain active.  In the urban enviornments of a century ago there were more than enough opponents to keep the immune system working to protect us.

50 or 60 years ago did we EVER hear of all the common food allergies that seem to afflict children (for the most part) in todays world.  Children, I hypotheses, that have been raised in a 'hyper clean' situation where their immune system has been 'looking for a fight' and instead of finding a real opponent of disease or other contagion has picked on a food source just to have something to fight.

I am not a doctor and have had NO MEDICAL TRAINING - YMMV.

[zugmann]

Just curious - do you have any medical training?

[GERALD L MCFARLANE JR]

charlie hebdo

Sorry,  but I  think it is far more sensible to trust the actual scientists at the CDC,  NIH, WHO and affiliated medical and epidemiological researchers. Credentials do matter.  

You can trust those Government scientists, I won't, I'll trust regular treating physicians over them any day, and so far, all I've been hearing from them is that we are blowing this out of proportion.  Here's the latest idiocy from the CDC, slow the spread using "social distancing" so that we don't overwhelm our medical facilities and have far more deaths than necessary and this should be over with in ONE to TWO years.  I'd rather let the disease take it's course over a shorter time frame and get back to normal sooner rather than later.  Don't quarantine, don't isolate, as a matter of fact I don't even worry about it, if I get it I'll let my body develop it's own immunities, don't want a man-made vacine that will just be circumvented by the disease mutating.  It's in the same family as SARS(10% mortality), MERS(35% mortality) and EBOLA(50% mortality) with COVID-19 right now at about .1% mortality, now tell me why we should be freaking out over this?

As for cancelling service or curtailing because ridership is down, well of course you should be looking at doing that if it makes sense and you can rapidly reintroduce the service once the all clear is given.  Keep in mind with Amtrak it's a perfect way for them to get rid of services they've been dying to eliminate for the last several years now and not bring it back, that's the problem I see with these train offs.

[BaltACD]

Heating Dave's link

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

[daveklepper]

The website coronavirus.gov has specific recommendations and some duplicate what Steve Sattler sent me and which I posted.   But not "sitting in the sun."

It is an official Government website, and I recommend it.  And I hope Kalmbach's lawyers can agree.

[daveklepper]

I can well imagine that Kalmbach's lawyers could easily advise removal of my recommendations despite my including the advice to check with your own doctor.  However, I did put my doctor's reaction to the advice that, for me, sitting in the sun is not a good idea.

Somehow, three Israelis have already been cured of the disease, so even now a cure is possible.  The cure will obviously depend on specific medical conditions, and there is apparently not one specific route.

An Israeli firm claims to have started an innoculation testing program.  I'll post details when available.  A Texas firm claims to have innoculation within a year. I do not know whether this will be a "See who gets there first" race ir wherther concern for the general good will prompt collaboration.

[Erik_Mag]

PJS1

The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Italy is 11,202.  The estimated population of the country is 60,461,826.  Approximately .02 percent of the population has contracted the disease, and approximately 96.6 percent of them will recover.  Approximately 800 Italians or .0013 percent of the population has succumbed to the disease.  Many of them were older or had underlying health issues.  What is not known is how many of the old folks would have died during the same period of other causes.

 

IIRC, the median age of the Italians dying from COVID 19 was 81 or 82, so advanced age is unfortunately a huge risk factor. Note the the "reported" cases was 11,102, and would suspect the actual number is quite a bit hiher due to the inability to test all suspected cases and also due to many infections leading to mild symptoms.

 

   

 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated population of the United States is 330,414,717   According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of noon yesterday there were 938 reported cases of COVID-19 in the United States.

Same caveat as Italy, actual infections are probably higher than reported infections. It is a cause for concern, but also important to really think through what steps need to be taken.

[Flintlock76]

I think we all could use a good laugh or two to break the tension.

Here's "Ticked-off Vic" DiBetetto with some ingenious and unique ways to defeat the coronavirus.  You ready?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSVfYTZOv-Q  

And with that I'm signing off for the evening.  See you tomorrow!

[PJS1]

NKP guy

   This might be a simple test for those who believe the public is "over-reacting":

1.  Which airline or Amtrak tickets have you bought this week or are willing to commit to for next week?

2.  Name the common stocks you bought this week or will commit to for next week.

3.  Which hospital or nursing home have you visited this week or are willing to commit to visiting for next week?

4.  Which friends or family members are you concerned about as it pertains to COVID-19?

Answers:  Obvious. 

I flew to Miami on Monday and returned yesterday.  I have, however, rescheduled March 30th and May 2nd cruises for August 26th and November 23rd.

I nearly doubled down on my Fideility Total Market Index fund today.  Just like I did in February of 2009.  As a result of the doubling down in 2009, I made a lot of money in no small part because I have a lot of money invested.  I expect similar results this go around.  The market always rebounds.  

I don't know anyone in a nursing home.

My brother travels a good deal.  I hope he does not contract COVID-19, but if he does, he has an excellent chance of survival. 

[ATLANTIC CENTRAL]

NKP guy

   This might be a simple test for those who believe the public is "over-reacting":

1.  Which airline or Amtrak tickets have you bought this week or are willing to commit to for next week?

2.  Name the common stocks you bought this week or will commit to for next week.

3.  Which hospital or nursing home have you visited this week or are willing to commit to visiting for next week?

4.  Which friends or family members are you concerned about as it pertains to COVID-19?

Answers:  Obvious.

I'm not minimizing the threat here, just questioning your assumptions about peoples day to day lives.

I don't have any need or desire to even leave my general area in the next two weeks, I have obligations here. I had no plans to go anywhere, that has not changed. When we do travel it is usually by car.....

Now I will be watching my grandchildren because the State of Maryland just closed the schools for two weeks....... 

Except for some retirement account stuff, we got out of the market decades ago and put the money in real estate. People always need a place to live......it's the best money I ever made. So I would not be buying or selling stocks next week in any case.

None of my friends or family are in the hospital, none live in nursing homes.....

Well, my wife does have some health issues that might put her at higher than average risk on an airplane, or cruise ship, but that kind of travel, or going to crowded events are not our kind of thing anyway.

I am always amused by people who think everyone lives like they do.......

I do think this situation deserves caution, it is not an area of expertise for me, I will trust those for whom it is.

But your simple test does not apply to a vast number of people.......

Sheldon

[Flintlock76]

Thank you PJS1!

[PJS1]

COVID-19 is a serious issue.  People should take precautionary steps, which for the most part means good hygiene practices, to reduce the probability of contracting the disease.  But the risk should be put in perspective.

 

The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Italy is 11,202.  The estimated population of the country is 60,461,826.  Approximately .02 percent of the population has contracted the disease, and approximately 96.6 percent of them will recover.  Approximately 800 Italians or .0013 percent of the population has succumbed to the disease.  Many of them were older or had underlying health issues.  What is not known is how many of the old folks would have died during the same period of other causes.    

 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated population of the United States is 330,414,717   According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of noon yesterday there were 938 reported cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Total U.S. deaths from the disease were 29, which means .00028 percent have contracted the disease and .000009 percent have died as a result.  Most of those that have died had underlying health issues or were old. 

 

According to the National Safety Council, in 2019 an estimated 38,800 people died in car crashes in the U.S.  Approximately 4.4 million were injured seriously enough to require medical attention.  The percentages are .012 and 1.33 of the population. The percentages would be higher if only motorists and passengers were considered.

 

According to the World Health Organization, China has reported 80,796 cases of COVID-19 and 3,169 deaths from the disease.  The estimated population of China is 1,408, 526,449.  Thus, 0057 percent of the population has contracted the disease and .0002 percent has died from it.  Approximately 3.9 percent of those contracting the disease have died as a result. 

 

The name of the game is not to get the disease.  If you do, there is roughly a 3 to 3.5 percent probability that you will die from it.  The percentages are higher for those with underlying health conditions and older people.  However, the survival rate for those over 80 is still more than 80 percent. 

[NKP guy]

 

Convicted One:  Regarding the air compressor:

 

   Your post gave me the biggest smile I've had on an otherwise rather bleak-looking day!  Many thanks!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[York1]

.

[Flintlock76]

I guess the advice holds, link  the story, but don't quote it verbatim.  Let people read it and make up their own minds.