An Over-reaction?

[York1]

Blame for the lack of supplies and ventilators?  Going back to 2005, all three administrations were warned we had a critical lack of equipment.

It seems the present occupant is not the only one to blame.  I wonder if someone will question the last occupant or his vice-president about this?

"In at least 10 government reports from 2003 to 2015, federal officials predicted the United States would experience a critical lack of ventilators and other lifesaving medical supplies if it faced a viral outbreak like the one currently sweeping the country."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/cnn10/ventilators-supply-government-warnings-coronavirus-invs/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-03-28T01%3A49%3A58&utm_source=twCNN

[charlie hebdo]

Keep in mind that Fauci and Brixx have to walk a narrow line.  If they sound too critical of Trump,  they will lose their authority.  As to testing,  we lack not just kits,  we lack the needed swabs! These have been largely from China,  but are blocked because of some detail concerning the cotton and the trade war. 

[Euclid]

Overmod

I was informed yesterday that a company developed a Web-enabled thermometer, and data from over a million of these things is being reasonably continually tracked and analyzed. On NPR last night the commentary mentioned that this technology was detecting fever clusters that were apparently good predictors of COVID-19 outbreaks a few days to a couple of weeks after the phenomenon emerged ... with the meathead comment that this 'proved' the need for even greater social distancing to cut down on the transmission supposedly causing the clusters. Not a word, not even a thought, that detecting and tracking these clusters should be a guide for enhanced segregation of the susceptible through subsidized social distancing, or that resources and materiel should be specifically directed toward those areas promptly as they emerge.

 

I am particularly interested in the excellent point you make about "not even a thought of detecting and tracking..." 

We are told that there is an incubation period during which people get the virus, but don’t develop symptoms for a 2-3 three weeks or so.  We are told that during that this asymptomatic period, they are nevertheless able to transmit the disease to others.  Generally, the significance of this has been explained that the disease is easier to spread due to the asymptomatic period where an infected person is not isolated due to not realizing they have the disease.  

I seem to detect that this point often goes right over the heads of people, including very important people.  I get this feeling because these people argue against widespread or even universal testing as though it would be a pointless exercise.  They don’t oppose it on these points:

1. It will cost too much.

2. We don’t have the technology.

Instead, they oppose it on the basis that they claim it is misguided and will do no good.  They act like it is a foolish idea.  They seem to limit their understanding of the purpose of testing to being just a convenience to people who worry they might have the virus.  Dr. Fauci argues that widespread testing is unnecessary if everyone would just follow his rules about distancing, hand washing, etc.  He scoffs at widespread testing. 

But in my opinion, we need a way to know day by day, which people have the virus.  This is for the benefit of society and our survival collectively, and not just for the convenience and reassurance of individuals.  The reason is simple.  The interest of society is to stop the spread.

We are beginning to see what “goes viral” really means.  It is the way a virus wins its war against the victims.  It is the way a fire grows to be unstoppable.  Could you imagine if a house caught fire, and there was a fundamental 2 hour period during which nobody could know it was burning? 

This is the critical and seemingly widely obscured point of fighting the virus.  The so-called asymptomatic period is giving the virus an incredible advantage to go viral.  A person gets the virus and does not realize they have it for 2 weeks.  Because they don’t know they have it, they don’t report it and they don’t see a problem with interacting with other people.  Thus, they inadvertently infect a lot of other people during their phase of not knowing. 

Even if you set aside the issue of a pre-symptom phase causing people to not report or not isolate; people will naturally delay these responsibilities.  Say they got symptoms at the moment of infection.  They would first wait to see how the symptoms develop.  Next, they will wait to see it they get bad enough to take action.  There again is your 2 week delay.  This delay gives the virus a head start. The best advantage you could give a viral opponent is a head start.

I don’t know how to make the necessary invention, but I do know what it needs to accomplish.  Every day when society wakes up, it needs to know which members have the virus.  Then immediate action must be taken to isolate the members found to have the virus.  That is the only key to defeating the virus.  Find it and isolate it early. 

So here is what the invention needs to do:  When people wake up every day, they are automatically tested, and if the test is positive, their doors lock and the authorities take them into isolation.  This is a critical to a society as police and fire department.  I believe the reason we don’t have this instant response to virus transmission is the belief that society has progressed beyond the times when old fashioned plagues killed millions. 

[BaltACD]

charlie hebdo

You're joking?  We still don't have enough testing kits, masks,  gloves etc.  You think there is a big supply of 3cl protease inhibitors? 

But if we have more test kits, we will test more people and we will have more confirmed cases and the numbers won't drop to zero by Easter.

[zugmann]

Overmod

on't you have a letter that says what you are?

Everybody and their uncle has a letter these days. 

I don't know what will happen.  Damnit Jim, I'm an engineer...

[charlie hebdo]

You're joking?  We still don't have enough testing kits, masks,  gloves etc.  You think there is a big supply of 3cl protease inhibitors? 

[Overmod]

I'd be willing to bet they're smart enough to make priority SARS-CoV-2 testing (it's the virus, not symptoms of COVID-19, that any early test would look for) available first and foremost to essential personnel.  Don't you have a letter that says what you are?

Seriously: this is the sort of thing that deserves a top priority, perhaps on a daily basis for the two weeks it would take.

Of course, it would be better still if they had premeasured dosing of 3CLpro inhibitors ready for everyone that tests positive, to assure they stay COVID-19 free indefinitely while they have to work and be noninfectious...

[zugmann]

Overmod

Here we have widespread emphasis on social distancing, stay at home, mandatory crashing of the economy, armed security keeping more than 5 or 6 people out of the few places of business still open ... but nothing done at all about keeping people from talking close to each other in lines, or at counters, or in the melee outside the carefully-regulated bureaucratic environment.

Some places are putting up plexiglass barriers between cashiers and customers - and putting lines on the floor at 6' intervals to make people stay apart. 

 

But here's my question - I've heard scuttlebutt that if someone in one of our smaller yards would test positive for COVID-19, the company will shut down that yard, and I assume pull everyone OOS pending medical review.  And I'm sure the RR medical won't want us back until we can show 2 negative COVID tests, but if you aren't showing symptoms, no doctor is going to let you take a COVID test when there's a shortage.  

That could prove interesting. 

[Erik_Mag]

Convicted One

 

Right there, IMO,  is part of the reason that the naysayers got so far off track misleading people as to the actual risk.

Testing was being restricted to those only showing severe symptoms for quite a while here, with even out top officials stating on TV that "we don't want everyone running out and getting tested" ....so with that being the reality, it's no wonder that reported incidence was "reassuringly"  low. to those who wanted to minimize this thing.

-snip-

When the authorities themselves  frown on the desire to be tested, reported cases  are going to be suppressed.

San Diego County health department has also been discouraging people from getting tested unless they are showing serious symptoms. They stated that ~80% of infections are mild enough not to require medical attention, which implies that the actual cases in the county could easily be 5X the confirmed cases. One implication is that the death rate may not be much worse than from the seasonal flu, though the death rate will likely trail reported infection rate by one to three weeks.

I would prefer that the county health department make more of an effort to determine actual case load, e.g. through some sort of sampling.

Any form of mass transportation of people can be bad news during a pandemic.

[charlie hebdo]

OM: As they say,  there are no easy answers. And doubts about the right questions. 

[Overmod]

The chief problem I'm having is that there are too many ways there are weird and possibly self-serving misresponses to this crisis, some of which I find reminiscent of the clever little firearms-confiscation exercise run in the wake of Katrina.

Here we have widespread emphasis on social distancing, stay at home, mandatory crashing of the economy, armed security keeping more than 5 or 6 people out of the few places of business still open ... but nothing done at all about keeping people from talking close to each other in lines, or at counters, or in the melee outside the carefully-regulated bureaucratic environment.

I was informed yesterday that a company developed a Web-enabled thermometer, and data from over a million of these things is being reasonably continually tracked and analyzed.  On NPR last night the commentary mentioned that this technology was detecting fever clusters that were apparently good predictors of COVID-19 outbreaks a few days to a couple of weeks after the phenomenon emerged ... with the meathead comment that this 'proved' the need for even greater social distancing to cut down on the transmission supposedly causing the clusters.  Not a word, not even a thought, that detecting and tracking these clusters should be a guide for enhanced segregation of the susceptible through subsidized social distancing, or that resources and materiel should be specifically directed toward those areas promptly as they emerge.  I see folks everywhere wearing N95 masks, when they can get'em, none of them I've asked so far aware that the 'vent' on most of these happily expels particles, a bit like a finger on a garden hose, when an infected person coughs or sneezes wearing one.

Back in the plague time, people had all sorts of feel-good 'precautions', some of which might slow the propagation of airborne contamination, but some of which really won't.  Modern Betsy Rosses happily sewing face masks from fabric sourced at Jo-Anns strikes me as sentimentality, not sentiment.  We actually have posters here who don't understand the difference between viral deposit on a hard surface vs. on cardboard.

I'm a native New Yorker who has extensively promoted transit over taxis for decades, but I would no more ride a subway in Manhattan now than ... well, than I'd go to New Orleans to Mardi Gras, or march in a Lunar New Year parade, or chug beers in some flashmob movable-feast spring break in Florida.  If an LD train is a moving petri dish, what's a poorly-washed hard-surfaced vehicle patronized by hundreds or thousands of random people getting on and off every hour?  And yet the response is let's make it free so more people use it?

[Convicted One]

BaltACD

When a organization 'plays to the numbers' it is guaranteed that individuals within that organization will take actions to manipulate the numbers to generate the desired conclusion.  That is the very definition of corruption.

Sorta like stacking the ol deck so as to make sure their confirmation bias gets it's needed exercise?

[charlie hebdo]

Balt : It's hard to ignore the demented elephant in the room. 

[BaltACD]

Convicted One

....

I'm seeing stories where states in the mid west are still finding it difficult to find supplies because available resources are being prioritized to the so called "hot spots".

So reality is, many states simply don't know how bad things really are in terms of the number of cases.

I've been short of breath for a week, had a very mild sore throat, and just a weeze out of my chest ocassionally....and have no idea if I'm just one of the lucky ones who is going to have a mild case, or if something entirely different is going on.

When the authorities themselves  frown on the desire to be tested, reported cases  are going to be suppressed.

When a organization 'plays to the numbers' it is guaranteed that individuals within that organization will take actions to manipulate the numbers to generate the desired conclusion.  That is the very definition of corruption.

[BaltACD]

charlie hebdo

 

BaltACD

It is over reaction right up to the instant someone you know or love succumbs - then it has all been a woefull lack of action that could have prevented that person from succumbing. 

When I first glanced at your post,  I  thought the last part read "protect the person from that scumbag!"

I didn't want to be political on what has become such a political subject area.

[Convicted One]

daveklepper

 The majority of Israelis have mild conditions: 2,838. However, 60 are moderate condition. Another 79 Israelis have recovered. Part of the reason for the uptick in sick people is that Israel has increased the number of people it is testing for the virus. In the last week Israel has gone from testing an average of 1,000 people per day to more than 5,000.

Right there, IMO,  is part of the reason that the naysayers got so far off track misleading people as to the actual risk.

Testing was being restricted to those only showing severe symptoms for quite a while here, with even out top officials stating on TV that "we don't want everyone running out and getting tested" ....so with that being the reality, it's no wonder that reported incidence was "reassuringly"  low. to those who wanted to minimize this thing.

I'm seeing stories where states in the mid west are still finding it difficult to find supplies because available resources are being prioritized to the so called "hot spots".

So reality is, many states simply don't know how bad things really are in terms of the number of cases.

I've been short of breath for a week, had a very mild sore throat, and just a weeze out of my chest ocassionally....and have no idea if I'm just one of the lucky ones who is going to have a mild case, or if something entirely different is going on.

When the authorities themselves  frown on the desire to be tested, reported cases  are going to be suppressed.

[243129]

charlie hebdo

When I first glanced at your post, I thought the last part read "protect the person from that scumbag!"

That would have made for an appropriate conclusion.

[charlie hebdo]

BaltACD

It is over reaction right up to the instant someone you know or love succumbs - then it has all been a woefull lack of action that could have prevented that person from succumbing.

 

When I first glanced at your post,  I  thought the last part read "protect the person from that scumbag!"

[daveklepper]

Two more Israelis died of the novel coronavirus overnight: a 93-year-old male who was hospitalized at Soroka Medical Center and suffered from several pre-existing conditions, and a 76-year-old woman who passed away at Beilinson medical center in Tel Aviv.

 

 

On Friday morning, Israel had 3,035 people who had been diagnosed with the virus - 49 in serious condition - and the number continues to rise. However, Prof. Itamar Grotto told the Hebrew website Ynet that the situation is not as bad as it could be: "The steps we have taken are starting to pay off. The number of people dead or in critical condition is less than we expected."

 

 

Nonetheless, the prime minister is scheduled to hold a series of separate discussions on increasing restrictions and will review the comprehensive economic aid program for the country. In the talks will be several top officials, as well as field experts and medical professionals.

"We are in a situation where the number of sick is doubling every three days," said Health Ministry Director-General Moshe Bar Siman Tov on Thursday. He estimated that within a week, the country will have about 200 severely ill patients.

The majority of Israelis have mild conditions: 2,838. However, 60 are moderate condition. Another 79 Israelis have recovered.

 

 

On Thursday, three people died from coronavirus in the country: a 91-year-old woman who was hospitalized at Wolfson Medical Center in Holon; an 89-year-old woman had been treated at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem in Jerusalem; and an 83-year-old man who was passed away under the care of Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center in Bnei Brak.

 

Part of the reason for the uptick in sick people is that Israel has increased the number of people it is testing for the virus. In the last week Israel has gone from testing an average of 1,000 people per day to more than 5,000. Overall, around 6% of those screened for the novel virus have tested positive in Israel.

 

 

 

 

[BaltACD]

It is over reaction right up to the instant someone you know or love succumbs - then it has all been a woefull lack of action that could have prevented that person from succumbing.

[Carl Fowler]

The VERMONTER and the ETHAN ALLEN are suspended during Vermont’s Shelter in Place period.

This was the right decision by VTRANS and Governor Scott. In the present tragedy Vermont ran the trains long enough for students and other visitors to get home. Now it’s time to be safe and as one of the “Fathers of the Vermonter” I support this temporary measure—alas.

I will be thrilled to hear “all aboard” in a few weeks, but for now Vermont has set an example of Shelter in Place. God’s speed to us all.

[daveklepper]

precisely   all of the above but nothing more

[Miningman]

Where is your next travel destination?

--Las Kitchenas

--Los Lounges

--Santa Bedroomes

--Porto Gardenas

--Los Bed

--Costa Del Balconia 

--St. Bathroom

--La Rotonda De Sofa

[Convicted One]

GERALD L MCFARLANE JR

All depends on what line of work your in and what you want out of life.

We are all a product of our own prior experiences. I wasn't born this way, I had expert training....lol!

[daveklepper]

 

 

 

 

 

By Dr. Frank MusmarMarch 25, 2020

Most political comment remved except that directly relevant to the Cononavirus treatment

 

 

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,503, March 25, 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: When President Donald Trump and other medical professionals touted the decades-old antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine as a possible means of fighting the coronavirus pandemic, the Israeli generic drug giant Teva (the most popular big pharma stock on Wall Street) immediately announced that it will provide 10 million doses of its hydroxychloroquine drug to US hospitals free of charge.

The Israeli drug giant Teva has announced that 6 million doses of hydroxychloroquine will be delivered to US hospitals by March 31 and more than 4 million more will be delivered within a month. “We are committed to helping to supply as many tablets as possible as demand for this treatment accelerates, at no cost,” Teva executive vice president Brendan O’Grady said.

Teva is the world’s leading generic drug manufacturer, employing 43,000 employees around the globe. In 2018, Teva produced 120 billion tablets, with one in nine generic prescriptions in the US containing the company’s products. Despite its global position, Teva says it has a unique understanding of local markets.

The reality is that the US’s alliance with Israel is based on two key factors: intelligence sharing and ideological unity, according to Michael Koplow, a Middle East analyst at the Israel Policy Forum. The Teva announcement is clear evidence of this ideological unity.

Hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets were in short supply throughout March, according to a report by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists. Hospitals have been rushing to stockpile the decades-old antimalarial drug, which has been touted by President Trump and others as a possible treatment for the new coronavirus. From March 1 through March 17, US hospitals bought an average of 16,110 units of hydroxychloroquine, compared with an average of 8,800 units a month from January 2019 through February 2020, according to Premier Inc., which helps 4,000 member hospitals buy and manage their supplies.

Teva indicated that it will do everything possible to accelerate production of hydroxychloroquine and also conduct research to see if, in its vast catalog of 3,500 drugs, others can be used to fight coronavirus. Another Israeli drug cited as possibly helpful is remdesivir, an experimental antiviral from Gilead Sciences.

Israel and the US coordinate scientific and cultural exchanges and have bilateral economic relations. The top five US exports to Israel are unmounted diamonds, semiconductors, civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment, and agricultural products. The top five US imports from Israel are diamonds, pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, medicinal equipment, and telecommunications equipment. US direct investment in Israel is primarily in the manufacturing sector, as is Israeli investment in the US. The US and Israel have had a free trade agreement since 1985 that serves as the foundation for expanding trade and investment between the two countries by reducing barriers and promoting regulatory transparency.

Dr. Frank Musmar is a financial and performanc

[GERALD L MCFARLANE JR]

Convicted One

 

GERALD L MCFARLANE JR

So what you're saying is you prefer to be Anti-social rather than social?

 

 

It sure is a lot less complicated...

I prefer to think of it in another way. For decades I was under the delusion that interpersonal development was somehow beneficial.

I'm (mostly) cured now!!

 

 

All depends on what line of work your in and what you want out of life.

[blue streak 1]

For those who want a comprehensive analysis of the global pandemic the following link has much information.  I do not understand how often itis updated but the days are based on GMT or UTC times .

The important is cases per million inhabitants and deaths by same number.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries  

Here is death rate by age on the above link.  our oldsters please take care.

person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

 

[charlie hebdo]

Stay safe,  David. 

[daveklepper]

 

New stricter regulations to contain the coronavirus outbreak are going to come into effect at 5 p.m. Wednesday, the Health Ministry announced, as the number of sick Israelis continues to climb, hitting 2,170 by 1 p.m. The number, released by the Health Ministry, comes on the backdrop of the news that two more Israelis died overnight, bringing the total number of victims in the country to five.

The government approved a new set of restrictions on public life overnight.  

According to the regulations, most Israelis will no longer have freedom of movement, in that they will only be allowed to go on short walks within 100 meters of their homes.

Additional restrictions: Public transport will be drastically reduced; attending weddings or other religious ceremonies is allowed, if 10-participant and two-meter rules are followed; going to the mikvah is allowed, as long as arrangements have been made in advance; only two people may travel in a car at one time and they may only be traveling to or from an approved place of work or to the grocery store, pharmacy or a medical appointment; private taxis will be available, but only one passenger and the driver can be in the car at a time.

No deliveries can be made except for approved items including newspapers, and essential products and appliances, such as for medical needs.

All businesses must be closed, including from within one's residence, except for various food stores and pharmacies, and those selling optical, hygiene or telecommunications products, electrical appliances or medical accessories. Online sale with shipping is allowed for all types of products: when delivered to private homes, the shipment will be placed outside the residence.

Essential services will remain open, including supermarkets, pharmacies, gas stations and banks, which will operate as normal. However, stores must mark a two 2-meter distance between people at checkout lines and ensure that no more than four people are waiting to check out at a time.
People can go to work as long as the guidelines are followed, but employers must check the temperature of all those arriving and anyone with a temperature of more than 38 degrees Celsius or above must be refused.

In addition, the government has approved Israeli's right to protest, so long as they do it in accordance with the Health Ministry's rules: no more than 10 people and a space of two meters between people. Children of separate parents can continue to move between the two houses.

Breaking the regulation constitutes a criminal offense. According to Ynet those who transgress them will face a NIS 500 fine or a suspended jail sentence.

Earlier in the day, a 76-year-old man, Hillel Moshe from Yehud, was named as Israel's fourth victim. He had been hospitalized at Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, since last Monday and had significant pre-existing medical conditions. Moshe's wife is also hospitalized in Sheba with the virus.

The fifth victim is Even Ben-Moshe, 87, from Petah Tikva. He had been hospitalized in Bnei Brak. He also had pre-existing conditions.
The name of the third person who died was released Wednesday: Moshe Ornstein, 87, who had been a resident in the Nofim Geriatric Center in Jerusalem. He had been hospitalized at Hadassah University Medical Center, in Jerusalem's Ein Kerem.

Of the 2,030 infected reported by the Health Ministry in the morning, 37 were in serious condition, 54 in moderate condition and 1,876 had mild symptoms.

More than 900 Israelis with the virus are being treated at home. Another 203 are recovering in one of the "coronavirus hotels" that were developed by the Defense Ministry.

So far, the ministry has conducted 32,346 coronavirus tests - 5,500 in the last 24 hours - which means 6.3% of those tested for the virus have been diagnosed as positive.

Late Tuesday night, State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman and other senior comptroller officials announced that they would go into 10 days of quarantine after a senior official in the office tested positive for the coronavirus. Englman has no symptoms, but took the measure as a matter of standard precautions directed by the Health Ministry, and will continue to carry out his duties.

The quarantine announcement came only days after Englman issued the first report of his term, which included a key chapter about Israel knowing already in the fall of 2019 that it is not properly prepared for the breakout of a pandemic.

Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.

 

 

[Convicted One]

BaltACD

the Easter Bunny?

Well, the stimulus deal appears to be done. 1/8 will go to Joe Lunchpail, and 7/8 will  go to businesses, hospitals, and state and local governments. No wonder they are trying to get everyone back to work so soon.