Dave: have noticed that the countries near you are not reporting many cases. Is there any hint as to what is happening in those countries ? Has Isreal closed its borders yet ? Here is link to latest world wide infections.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The two rabbis never rescinded that decision, but last week the winter term ended and ultra-Orthodox schools and yeshivas are now on their Passover vacatio
OvermodWhat's needed is a distributed solution, easy to use, ideally with some kind of incentive to use it rather than 'other people's compulsion' -- this is still America. Then make the tracking architecture very low bandwidth and reasonably asynchronous... all the work we did decades ago when rural 'broadband' was still science fiction still applies now.
Free gun with testing!
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
zugmann Euclid The testing I described on previous page cannot be voluntary. Good luck with that one.
Euclid The testing I described on previous page cannot be voluntary.
Good luck with that one.
I don't expect it to be done. It is just the basic tool to prevent pandemics. Lesser tools doing a less effective job might be good enough. What I descibed needs a new test method and new communication link. It needs system of operation. Ideally, it needs to be international because the virus is international. Operating internationally would probably be impossible. People would also balk at the intrusivenss of being tested all the time.
But my main point was to wonder why I hear people apparently not understanding the point of testing everybody.
zugmann Euclid The testing I described on previous page cannot be voluntary.
EuclidThe testing I described on previous page cannot be voluntary.
This in this morning, of probable interest to Euclid and others:
There is an early signature of IGm relative to IGg that is diagnostic of early infection (at least in most individuals retaining immune responses) and this is supposedly detectable with very small blood sample volume - comparable to blood-glucose meters.
So it should be possible to make large numbers of readers, possibly 'multiple-spectrum' depending on the type of strip inserted (or wells/circuits printed on that strip) which are then able to dereference data and transmit as the thermometers do (and, ideally, associated with those data) to give much better and quicker ID of infection. I suspect, but can't prove yet, that an approach like this might distinguish between H1N1 influenza and corona spp.
Note the implications vs. typical intrusive blood testing or 'lab-centric' swabs...
zugmann Euclid The way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose. We can't even get people to stay at home for a few days. You really think everybody is going to voluntarily go in for testing?
Euclid The way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose.
We can't even get people to stay at home for a few days. You really think everybody is going to voluntarily go in for testing?
SD70DudeWe haven't had those in Canada for years.
That's why we need to send troops to that border!
zugmann SD70Dude How long before that gets spun into a conspiracy about taking DNA samples from everyone? That's what pennies are for.
SD70Dude How long before that gets spun into a conspiracy about taking DNA samples from everyone?
That's what pennies are for.
We haven't had those in Canada for years.
Maybe we should bring them back, considering the well-known antimicrobial properties of copper.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
SD70DudeHow long before that gets spun into a conspiracy about taking DNA samples from everyone?
How long before it turns into an actual conspiracy to take DNA samples from everyone? (And to (mis)use some of the massive footballs of 'safety money' to use some of the resulting data for "political" purposes, or otherwise...)
There are already people in the insurance industry who are using advanced modeling to combine disparate public information to help determine people 'at risk' in order to 'optimize their participation in the insurance system' -- and to detect what may likely be pre-existing conditions before they evidence as clinical. It would not be surprising to me to see even intercepted data streaming or helpful 'data channel allocation by social media providers' exploited by 'those in the know' -- not necessarily for nefarious reasons, but certainly exploitive ones.
Compare what is needed for a "23 and me" test vs. what Euclid would propose as a test kit...
zugmann Euclid he way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose. We can't even get people to stay at home for a few days. You really think everybody is going to voluntarily go in for testing?
Euclid he way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose.
How long before that gets spun into a conspiracy about taking DNA samples from everyone?
Remember, this is a Chinese virus that escaped from a lab.
(I read it on Facebook, so it must be true)
Welcome to the infowars. Later,
sometime during 2021 maybe
York1On this forum, several posters cannot type a sentence without blaming the current administration.
At least they are balanced out by current fans of the adminstration.
Euclidhe way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose.
As long as we're looking for leadership (or blame), NYC should look no further than their mayor's office.
“If you’re not sick, you should be going about your life”. Bill de Blasio said the city is “telling people to not avoid restaurants, not avoid normal things that people do.” March 11, 2020.
Now that's leadership!
York1 John
Miningman Euclid-- Well that's interesting and logical but how do you test for something you don't even know exists in the first place. If we had such a 'plague detection system' in place it would be testing for known viruses only. We cannot predict the future. Perhaps I am wrong.
Euclid-- Well that's interesting and logical but how do you test for something you don't even know exists in the first place.
If we had such a 'plague detection system' in place it would be testing for known viruses only. We cannot predict the future.
Perhaps I am wrong.
Miningman,
I am not sure about that. I don't know what viruses people may carry as normal routine. Maybe lots, but maybe none. But the testing would have to go on continuously as a watchdog. And it would have to recognize the abnormal, just like watchdog would. Certainly, this would be a major technological challenge, but I am guessing that it could be developed at this time, if only we recognized a need for it. But before that problem, the first problem is recognizing the possiblity of such advanced test/monitoring. The way that public officials ridicule the idea of testing everybody leads me to believe that they have never grasped the purpose.
I have explained it to lots of people, and I don't think any of them even paused to assimilate it. It is not hard. Maybe they hear the word "asymptomatic", and they hear doctor talk. So their minds shut off because nobody wants to question a doctor.
BaltACDWe are in the world of here and now!
On this forum, several posters cannot type a sentence without blaming the current administration.
I merely pointed out CNN's report that the current and the past administrations have been warned and did not respond.
As far as leadership, it probably doesn't really matter what comes out of D.C. Those who hate the current occupant say we're not getting any leadership, and those who don't hate the current occupant say we are.
If we are really looking to blame someone, everyone, left and right, should agree that WHO has a major part of the blame.
Taiwan was trying to warn the world in December that the virus was being passed person to person, but the WHO believed the Chinese government that it wasn't occuring. It wasn't until late January that WHO finally admitted the virus was spreading through human contact.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JRHowever, here's another way to look at this, nature is trying to tell us we have over populated the world and we need to do something about it. If we won't, nature will.
Funny you would mention this, I was pondering the possibility just yesterday that SARS CoV-2 might actually be the antibody, and that we were the plague.
Perhaps a "cure" for global warming is in the works?
Ironic how the skeptics to both so strongly overlap.
EuclidIt is nobody's fault that we don't have the system I am advocating of full time testing for everyone. It has never been developed, because is has no purpose other than protecting from palgues, and we thought we were beyond that old fashioned terror. I believe we could develop such a system, however, but it is too late to stop this pandemic. But if we had the system at the outset, we would have avoided this world disaster. We would have stopped it at the first confimed case and case #2 would not have happened.
There are places this would work, and places it wouldn't. Let me start by noting that for any 'Captain Trips'-like pandemic no particularly good system would work particularly well, and the 'fallback' position has to be a combination of extremely careful vigilance and the ability to seqregate or 'sequester' demonstrable infection as quickly and effectively as possible -- this well in advance of any conceivable treatment or even therapy for the infection or its logical sequelae or complications.
One reasonable 'start' to testing is, as mentioned before, a properly-deferenced system of early-warning devices. The cloud-based thermometers (which I'm sure aren't properly dereferenced except by accident, not design -- but that should be easy to address) are one very good early approach, and it would only take 'a few million' of "stimulus" money to distribute them, and their power, and their instructions, to a wide range of people, and then to assure the necessary data bandwidth (which need not be synchronous, or full data-transfer grade, to 'get the message through' as needed with effective latency) and the secure data-warehousing and analysis to give the Spaceguard-like early warning of clusters of disease. The architecture, and perhaps even much of the equipment, could easily accept more specific testing results or metadata once that has been developed (e.g., once a virus has been sequenced, its proteome reasonably mapped to determine key factors, and early Rx (which means 'responses', by the way) designed.
The concerns over potentially-intrusive responses, however, need to be considered too: at present there are too many ways a system like this could be manipulated, or gamed for 'other purposes', or used as one pawn in ongoing policy battles that ought to be eradicated from any thoughtful culture's democracy entirely. And there is then the cost of the 'eternal vigilance' in what will likely be, most of the time, relative calm. Waiting for the moment of screaming terror to reach under the pilot's seat for the aircraft manual to discover how to recover from that inverted dive at full power is not good timing ... but also remember the Babcock and Wilcox training models used for TMI2. And be prepared to pay, a great deal, but not to waste any on the wrong stuff. Of which there are sure to be many, many, many proponents, some of them well-connected, all of them insistent.
York1 charlie hebdo President for over three years? Nothing done, dismantled the office in the NSC for this type of emergency, still blaming Obama, Bush. Why not blame JFK? Reagan? Washington? AWOL. So sidestep the issue. Reread what was posted. From 2003 to 2015 (and one from 2017), the administrations ignored the warnings and advice of several agencies that the U.S. did not have the equipment or supplies to fight an epidemic like this.
charlie hebdo President for over three years? Nothing done, dismantled the office in the NSC for this type of emergency, still blaming Obama, Bush. Why not blame JFK? Reagan? Washington? AWOL.
So sidestep the issue. Reread what was posted.
From 2003 to 2015 (and one from 2017), the administrations ignored the warnings and advice of several agencies that the U.S. did not have the equipment or supplies to fight an epidemic like this.
We are in the world of here and now! The country and indeed the World is looking for leadership - they are not finding it where it previously existed.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
GERALD L MCFARLANE JRIf after those 14 days you had no symptoms you're free and clear and can return to the outside world.
That has not yet been established, at least not to my satisfaction. There was considerable evidence prior to the recent spate of outbreaks that some people 'recovering' to the point they are asymptomatic still continue to shed virus -- in plain language, are still capable of causing infections that can spread dramatically to at-risk population -- and hence the 'return to the outside world' has to be qualified by an effective (and cost-effective) test that shows negative virus titer.
Yes, that should have been a priority, and yes, that still is a priority, and yes, it's pathetic that more hasn't been done even with present crude methods to develop effective logistics for making and distributing tests. An interesting discussion that is probably years old by now was the idea of adapting the 'paper cell-phone' approach (using flexible circuit technology on relatively inexpensive substrates) to making viral/bacteriological test equipment -- 'plug it into a penlight battery and watch it recharge' and all that. I have seen this brought up -- as a theoretical example of what we 'might' have with enough angel investment -- at least a couple of times since December 2019. (And note that once it includes an actual paper cell-phone circuit, something for which all the SPICE was done long ago, you have the ability to upload properly-dereferenced data via any cell connection to 'the cloud'...)
Nature has told us many times that a little too much overpopulation -- or bad habits, like demonizing and killing cats in the early 1300s -- can be extremely bad for human business. Some of the 'corrections' go largely unrecognized to this day; the "Mayan" and the prospective scourge of the Mississippi Valley mound-building culture being two of the more familiar examples.
Every year at flu season a billion birds in China breed new avian strains of virus, including novel H1N1 strains. Mercifully most of these, year after year, produce relatively noncritical responses (to which we have become almost inured) - I think it's been noted that something like 100x the deaths from H1N1 strains alone have been reported during the same timeframe as COVID-19 but no one has batted a particular eyelash at this, as flu is 'natural' until someone declares it a catastrophe. Any year, at virtually any time, we could expect a pandemic that combines enhanced human sensitivity -- perhaps with high affinity for conserved human receptors followed by as long as possible an incubation time, coupled with high propensity to induce cytokine storm, ARDS, or other chronic debilitating sequelae -- and a prompt and ordered response to this up to and including use of all that armor-piercing weaponry cleverly issued to FEMA might have been required long before now.
The reasoned answer to this, which is common-sense even if charlie hebdo might disagree, is that anyone attempting to set up such a radical set of responses in a time the threat isn't in fact recognizably deadly already will be branded as crying wolf at best ... and just imagine the political future for anyone who plans to spend $2 trillion on only the first feeble steps of a working response to some of the rather obvious consequences of a pandemic.
And although this is nothing more than a preference of mine, I would look far more carefully at the actual steps being taken, and their synergistic effectiveness, than at 'public perceptions', spin, clever exploitation, etc. etc. of the "crisis" or lack thereof surrounding each successive infectious-disease scare. We have the choice of either buying sensible response to this sort of thing with our trillions wasted, or having this be another Ford-era swine-flu Kohoutek. Given the impending need for radical Government cutback in the wake of a great dying-off of taxable income revenue in the next few years, I don't think there is much hope right now ... or in a Biden presidency, for that matter ... of anything particularly effective actually being worked out. Which means it falls to people in the private sector to design it, and probably set up to provision it, then give it credence with direction from 'the democracy people deserve'.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JRThat's exactly what the 14 day quarintine period is for, 14 days from the first contact with someone that has the virus. If after those 14 days you had no symptoms you're free and clear and can return to the outside world.
I don't know what you are referring to, but if it is what I said above, I don't see it. There is no 14-day quarantine until after a person has symptoms unless they were closely associated with someone known to have syptoms. Otherwise everyone is free to spread the virus prior to having symtoms, and that give the virus a 2-3 week head start in its exponential rampage.
It is nobody's fault that we don't have the system I am advocating of full time testing for everyone. It has never been developed, because is has no purpose other than protecting from palgues, and we thought we were beyond that old fashioned terror. I believe we could develop such a system, however, but it is too late to stop this pandemic. But if we had the system at the outset, we would have avoided this world disaster. We would have stopped it at the first confimed case and case #2 would not have happened.
That's exactly what the 14 day quarintine period is for, 14 days from the first contact with someone that has the virus. If after those 14 days you had no symptoms you're free and clear and can return to the outside world. The problem is with overlap, if we could get every single person to stay inside and isolate for 14 days(21 would be better), most likely cases would fall off the table. I'm not going to say go to zero, but drop significantly.
However, here's another way to look at this, nature is trying to tell us we have over populated the world and we need to do something about it. If we won't, nature will.
charlie hebdoPresident for over three years? Nothing done, dismantled the office in the NSC for this type of emergency, still blaming Obama, Bush. Why not blame JFK? Reagan? Washington? AWOL.
President for over three years? Nothing done, dismantled the office in the NSC for this type of emergency, still blaming Obama, Bush. Why not blame JFK? Reagan? Washington? AWOL.
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