Overmod BaltACD Italy Deaths 15362 - Recovered 20996. While more have recovered than have died - I am not liking the ratio. But keep in mind that the Australian journalists noted that the Italians log their stats differently; anyone -- in a heavily geriatric population -- who dies while infected with the virus is tabulated as dying FROM infection with the virus. I suspect this is true for many patients with preexisting conditions and perhaps coinfection with other viruses; you may remember that in the United States the deaths "from" H1N1 influenza are about 100:1 vs. "COVID-19" and I see little operational reason at present either why the spread of influenza in Italy should be more restricted or that COVID-19 either predisposes against H1N1 infection or its symptoms "protect" against that (although both might be 'possible').
BaltACD Italy Deaths 15362 - Recovered 20996. While more have recovered than have died - I am not liking the ratio.
But keep in mind that the Australian journalists noted that the Italians log their stats differently; anyone -- in a heavily geriatric population -- who dies while infected with the virus is tabulated as dying FROM infection with the virus. I suspect this is true for many patients with preexisting conditions and perhaps coinfection with other viruses; you may remember that in the United States the deaths "from" H1N1 influenza are about 100:1 vs. "COVID-19" and I see little operational reason at present either why the spread of influenza in Italy should be more restricted or that COVID-19 either predisposes against H1N1 infection or its symptoms "protect" against that (although both might be 'possible').
Just like EHH changing how service metrics were derived and reported on CSX versus the rest of the industry.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
So Dave, I think you said you are "sheltered in place" and avoiding groups. Do they have testing for you or only if you have symptoms. Would I be correct that so far, you have no symptoms? Stay well my friend.
Everyone currently at the Yeshiva. married couples, some with children, and me, with the single youngsters all at home, is healthy and has not had contact with any known virus carrier. So we have not been tested.
The campus is large, and one does not feel confined. We practice social distancing, and pray outdoors with that in mind. The top teacher-rabbi also has an apartment on campus with his wife.
And one coiuple has adaopted me as a quasi member of their family, so I will enjoy a traditional Seder.
The virus is hitting China in a second wave. The second wave is claiming victims, including the Party's propaganda narratives. The most dangerous of these narratives is that ruler Xi Jinping, with heaven's mandate, has an obligation to dominate the international system.
To push America aside and seize global leadership, China got Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization, to say that China's response to the coronavirus showed the "superiority of the Chinese system and this experience is worthy of emulation by other countries." Then Beijing set about making a big show of "donating" medical equipment and diagnostic kits, most notably to stricken Europe.
Xi's initial policies turned a local outbreak into a pandemic, and now they are making even more people sick and forcing China into another pit of disease. China's inaccurate diagnostic kits and substandard protective gear donated around the world along with the new infections will show the truth: communism is incompetent if not downright malign.
China has "defeated" the coronavirus and declared "victory," Communist Party media tells us.
A funny thing happened on the way to victory, however. The virus is hitting China in a second wave. The second wave is claiming victims, including the Party's propaganda narratives.
China, after reporting no new infections on March 19, said the virus had been contained. Since then, Beijing has been reporting dozens of new cases each day but has maintained that virtually all of them were "imported" -- in other words, the infected were individuals arriving from other countries.
Of the very few in-country transmissions, most, Beijing maintained, were transmissions from the imported cases.
China's official numbers of deaths and new infections, however, must be bogus. Chinese officials are taking actions that are, as a practical matter, inconsistent with the no-new-infection reports.
For instance, on March 27 Beijing closed all theaters nationwide, after re-opening them just the previous week.
In Shanghai, tourist attractions that had just resumed operations were shut again. For instance, the municipality re-closed the observation deck of the Shanghai Tower, the tallest building in China, and the nearby Oriental Pearl Tower. The Jin Mao Tower is now shuttered "to further strengthen pandemic prevention and control." Madame Tussauds, the Shanghai Ocean Aquarium, and the Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park are now dark, along with the indoor portions of another 25 attractions.
Shanghai Disneyland? "Temporarily Closed Until Further Notice."
Shanghai is not the only metropolis turning out the lights. In Chengdu, karaoke bars and internet cafes were also shut just days after Sichuan province opened up all entertainment venues.
Fuyang in Anhui province ordered the closure of "entertainment spots" and indoor swimming pools. Henan province locked down internet cafes.
Henan even quarantined an entire area, Jia county, as doctors there tested positive for the bug.
On March 31, ESPN reported that the Chinese central government had delayed the resumption of team sports.
The nationwide university-entrance exams, the gaokao, have been postponed a month, to July.
The regime has also not rescheduled its premier political events, the annual meetings of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, both originally scheduled for early March.
Finally, the authorities in Jiangxi province are not allowing people from next-door Hubei to enter, indicating they do not believe the epidemic in that disease-ridden province is over.
Does any of this matter? It does: Xi Jinping thinks he should rule the planet. "China, the country where the virus first appeared and claimed its first several thousand lives, is now using the global spread of the disease to bolster an increasingly vocal, assertive bid for global leadership that is exacerbating a yearslong conflict with the U.S.," the Wall Street Journal wrote on April 1.
As the Communist Party's Global Times on March 30 triumphantly put it, "COVID-19 Blunders Signal End of 'American Century.'"
To push America aside and seize global leadership, China got Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), to say that China's response to the coronavirus showed the "superiority of the Chinese system and this experience is worthy of emulation by other countries." Then Beijing set about making a big show of "donating" medical equipment and diagnostic kits, most notably to stricken Europe.
Finally, Xi Jinping, beginning around the first week of February, forced China back to work to demonstrate that China had ended the epidemic.
None of these showy displays will convince anyone, however, if the virus ravages China again. Unfortunately for Xi, that is what is happening: people in China are re-infecting each other. For instance, in industrial Dongguan in southern Guangdong province, workers returning to their jobsites have been carrying the coronavirus, and this has forced health officials to quarantine other workers. China's leader can jump-start the economy or throttle the coronavirus, but he cannot do both at the same time.
When the second wave of coronavirus infections hits China hard, Xi Jinping's boasts about the superiority of Chinese communism will sound hollow, absurd even.
China can lie with statistics, but the virus gets the last word. "Victory" over both COVID-19 and the United States is far out of sight.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow.
The Gatestone Institute is a far-right organization, known for a strongly anti-Muslim bias. Gordon Chang is a lawyer and self-proclaimed China expert whose bias is well known. Since 2000 he has predicted with certainty the collapse of the Chinese government three times. Actual experts do not take his pronouncements seriously.
I found this story of prescience quite interesting. Seems a shame now that other priorities managed to derail such forward thinking in the interim.
2005 prediction
Having read "The Great Influenza" shortly after it was published, I am not surprised to hear that GWB picked up on it as he was was very involved with helping Africa deal with the HIV epidemic. FWIW, the book does not portray Woodrow Wilson in a good light.
News from the last 12 hours suggests that the US may be approaching the peak of the first wave. The Univ Of Wash model was updated last night to get a lot closer to reality with a substantial lowering of hospital resources needed (some areas are still going to be hit hard). Will be interesting to see what effect wearing mask will have, even if they work only 50% of the time, it will be an enourmous help.
Doubling time for cases in San Diego County was 5.5 days and new cases have been nearly flat for the last 5 days suggesting that growth is no longer exponential.
I don't think we can avoid COVID-19 from becoming endemic, in makes a strong case for a vaccination program.
Gatestone is not anti-Islam and is called such only by those who wish to excuse terrorism. One of their senior researchers is a religious Muslilm. Also, I think Conservative is a better term for it than "far-right," and I would have posted its real criticism of the way Trump first reacted to the news of the outbreak in China if I had not thought that it might be too political to post.
In the material I posted, is there anything about the collapse of China? Reduction of influence and reduction of ability to harm the USA is what I read, but this isnot the same as the collapse of their government.
Charlie, again you are simply calling names. If you have data contrary to what I posted from the Gatestone research or wish to point out what you can show to be conjecture, I'm always willing to listen and learn. But you seem unwilling to learn from anyone who isn't in lockstep witih your political positions.
I don't always agree with Gatestone. But I do think their analysis is correct in this case and agrees with others having a spectrum of political positions on other matters.
I am not attempting to defend all of Gatestone's positions or all those of the author I have quoted. Only the matter that I posted. which I believe is a fair analysss.
Good news, Erik.
David: Even Wiki calls it far right and anti-Muslim (not anti-Islam). Here's a link to a Georgetown article on Gladstone:
https://bridge.georgetown.edu/research/factsheet-gatestone-institute/
As to the nonsensical rantings of the discredited Gordon Chang, speak with any distinguished academic whose field is China and see what they say. Chang uses the old trick of mixing a few facts with large helpings of his biased views.
Biased political views? You're using the Trains forum daily as though it were your own blog in furtherence of Israeli views, sometimes little more than agitprop.
Favipiravir is an interesting chemical: it inhibits viral RNA polymerase, which is kind of the opposite strategy from 3CLpro inhibitors (which inhibit the breaking up of large RNA strands into critical shorter pieces used in viral replication).
It is not said to have any effect on mammalian RNA synthesis, which technically makes it nontoxic at effective antiviral dosing strengths (and in typical modes of drug admission). There were worries from animal-model testing, however, that it might prove teratogenic (so, at the least, its use in pregnant or fertile women might be contraindicated)
The other issue I have at present is that I still have little evidence that this stuff is active in infected airway cells (of the type selectively invaded by SARS-CoV-2 via the ACE2 surface 'receptor') Whether that is true for other tissues rich in 'bindable' structure, as in the heart, does not appear to be established. I have to wonder if this is tantamount to a very large, somewhat ill-controlled field trial of this medication, somewhat like the logic behind the old conductor's test for how much of the collected fares to turn in to the company each day.
As noted for 3CLpro, this is unlikely to facilitate or accelerate actual immune-system response to deactivate the virus natively; it must continue to be administered to keep virus titer effectively low. It certainly should be as effective as a 3CLpro inhibitor in stopping runaway virus replication leading either to pronounced symptoms or to leukotriene cascade/cytokine storm and thence ARDS; I see no reason why it wouldn't also allow the same resolution of chronic immune misresponse just as 3CLpro inhibitors did for FIP in cats.
Since the lion's share of apparent deaths in 'susceptible' cohorts all appear related to massive unstopped viral replication, treatment with an agent of this kind appears both potentially effective and reasonably ethical, provided the teratogenic possibilities can be minimized. It certainly seems to be available in the large dose amounts, with reasonably high ongoing production, that will be needed to safeguard large numbers of the at-risk 'nonremoved boomers' incapable of producing their own effective full immune response to the virus, long enough for effective later-stage priming and development of effective antibody response to be 'designed for.'
I believe, especially in this age, to listen to experts in the relevant fields. Nobody on this forum is even a medical doctor, let alone a specialist in infectious diseases or a researcher in virology or other relevant specializations.
Sometimes even the experts don't have it right, Dr. Fauci was downplaying COVID-19 in late January having thought the WHO was giving an accurate account of what was going on in China.
Similar thing with the general public wearing face masks. With exponential growth, even a small decrease in transmission rates can make a big difference after a few generations. Taiwan went on a crash program to make enough masks to allow most of the population to wear them.
Latest local update is the number of new cases in the last 24 hours has been the lowest in almost a week.
Erik_MagHaving read "The Great Influenza" shortly after it was published, I am not surprised to hear that GWB picked up on it
Where did he get the notion that "something like this happens every hundred years"? Was that an idea that was promoted in the book? Is there historical precedent to support this?
Just curious...I doubt my local library will be open anytime soon, so your insight is appreciated.
Excuse me, but the evidence of what is happening in Sweden in particular and in other European countries as a result massive immigration cannot be swepped under the rug just because Geogegtown University receives massive amounts of money to fund "Near Eastern Studies" programs that distort history and whitewash the crimes, now against Christians since all the Jews have left or been killed, in most Muslim Arab countries.
The fact is that the influence of Adolf Hitler himself, transmitted through his close friend, the Mufti Haaj Al Husseini, changed a relatively tolerant religion, certainly far more tolerant than the specific Roman Catholisism of Torquamada's Spain with its burning at the stake, an Islam where Jews and Christians simply paid a tax and lived in tranquilaty, into a form of Naziism with an Islamic face, where somehow the portions of the Koran that are favorable to Jews and Christians are distorted and reasons provided that they don't apply. A favorite is that all European Jews, including the progeny in America (the two continents) and Israel. are actually decendents of the Russian Kazar tribe. The history of 70 Jewish families invited to return to Jerusalem when the European Crusaders were driven out, Jewish participation in the Dome-of-the-Rock construction, the welcome the Caliph of Jerusalem gave to Jewish refugees from Torquamada's Spain at the Jaffa Dock, the representation of the Jews of the Holy Land by Rabbi Eliyahu Navon in the Turkish Parliament, the construction of the first railroad. Jaffa - Jeerusalem initiated by his son, Joseph Navon, and more, all this has been missing from most Arab instruction for almost a century.
Gatestone is not anti-Islam but anti-Islam Extremism, and if you wish to refute this, please quote actions and statements by Gatestone, not accusations by Islamic Extremism apologists, which Georgetown certainly is.
The countries where Christians can live without fear in the Islamic world are Jordan, if the King remains on the throne, Morocco (Jews can also live there), Kasistan (very liberal Democracy), and a few others. Even in Pakistan, Egypt, Algeria, and the Sudan, where there is nominally freedom of religion, crimes against Christians and churches in particular, are not punished on occasion. The Mufti taught the Muslim-Arab world to hate Jews in particular, but hatred spreads, even to one kind of Muslim against another.
Further proof of Georgetown U's bias is the number of their professors who advocate Boycott - Divestment - Sanctions against Israel. Gatestone may take economic positions that, as basically a liberal, I disagree with, but it does defend my right to live my life, while Georgetown defends those who wish to evict or kill me.
No society is totally bad or good, and I am happy to report the following:
The first in a convoy of 11 El Al planes carrying tons of critical medical equipment to Israel from China touched down at Ben-Gurion International Airport on Monday morning, as the nation continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic.
Israel’s Defense Ministry announced on Sunday that planes carrying 20 tons of vital medical supplies, including 900,000 surgical masks, 500,000 protective suits, several ventilators and other equipment would touch down one after another over the course of the next several days, in a coordinated effort with Israel’s Foreign Ministry, El Al Airlines and Israel Chemicals.
Due to an international run on coronavirus testing reagents, Israel has not been able to perform the 30,000 tests per day that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for last week, but has still managed to continue testing on a smaller scale.
As of Monday, Israel’s coronavirus death toll stood at 51, with 8,611 confirmed cases of infection. So far, 585 people have recovered from the virus since the first official case was registered on Feb. 2.
My comment: The ratio of recovered-to-death continues to improve here, and China seems willing to help us. And there are now Israeli doctors assisting in China. So possibly the Gatestone prediction of a second wave will be proved wrong. Here, we not only hope, but also pray, for that.
Again, if you claim that Gatestone is anti-Islam, show me an example from Gatestone, not just examples of their accusors accusations.
Muslim extremist efforts to convert the world to Islam are a fact, and if necessary I will provide the evidence.
So, what do we think about Sweden? They have only taken minimal measures and so far do not have a disaster?
Sheldon
Where I think Gatestone is wrong, is that they seem to me to assume that China's leaders are incapable of learning from their mistakes. And just possibly they are learning not only about the errors in controlling the virus, but that international cooperation is better for them in the long run than confrontation and attempts at domination.
And yes, I do wish Trump had learned from his mistakes quicker.
Sheldon, Sweden does not have a Cononavirus disaster. But:
A gut feeling I get is the death rate of persons going into the ICU. Seems like about 1/2 who go do not make it ? Of course that may depend on how patients are classified as to needing to go to the ICU. Maybe some of those who are on ventilators do not meet criteria to be assigned to the ICU ?
Dave,
I don't have the time, or to be honest, the interest, to read all that you and others have posted in this thread.
I have responsibilities, that have been severely impacted by this crisis. And doing my best to deal with them takes up all but a few minutes of my day.
I don't know anything about Sweden, I've never been there, don't care to go. I don't have an opinion on their social problems.
I was simply refering to the reported facts that they have not locked down their country, and yet no larger percentage are sick or dead when compared to elseware?
It's a fair question.
I asked a simple question pages ago to no response, who will pay for this vacation I am on?
Lucky for me, I am actually still working for now. But the economic impact of this on my family may end up being significant. So again, it's a fair question. Is this lock down working? Is it going to work? Could it make it worse in the long run? What mental health and addiction price will be paid? Those outcomes can be very economic driven. Steal people's money and hope and they turn to various escapes, or worse. What will the suicide rate be? We need only look at the 1929 crash for that one. I'm married to a retired addictions counselor, I know way too much about the bad choices people can make.........
I'm not saying I know better or have an answer.
But I have the right to ask the questions. However unpleasant the questions are.
Or, am I supposed to just be a good little "citizen" (read sheeple, comrade, etc) and be lead to the slaughter? Literally or economically? A victim of the virus, or economic ruin, or some thug, or the courts if I shoot the thug?
There are a lot of things that have been upside down in this world for while now, it will be interesting to see if any of them get set right?
Sheldon, many of us have the same problem you do. And in many European countries it is worse.
1. If you have immediate food or housing financial problems, contact the religious organization most famliiar to you. I have been contacted by both Jewish and Christian organizations offering to help me. Fortunately, I got my Social Security for April on time, and the help from the Yeshiva's married students is sufficient to make up the gap to all expenses, and I don't need the additional help that my USA friendly organizations have offered to provide.
2. I get reliable in accurate information from Gatestone on a variety of subjects. The information is reliable and accurate because I often have the abilitiy to check with first-hand sources, such as my co-author Mendel Kleiner, of Worship Space Acoustics, who lives in Gothenberg, Sweden, and has first-hand knowledge of conditions there. LRTA members are able to confirm events in the UK, and of course I have local sources for events in Israel and in areas controlled by the PLO and Hamas. The fact that some call Gatestone right-wing and that it is in fact a conservative organization does not alter the quality information it presents, only requires some careful evaluation of the actions it recmmends.
3. Georgetown U. Its Near-Eastern studies have been funded by Arab countries, and they call the direction for those studies, which, as forwarded to me, appear to include a lot of downright lies. Probably they would use my posting what goes on in Sweden as an example of anti-Islam prejudice. But I did learn a lot about real Islam, as a religion of tolerance, from Imam Muhammid Osman of New York's Islamic Center. actually prayed with his congregation during the 1st Gulf War at the old center at Riverside Drive and 73rd Street, and served as one of the two required legal witnesses at an Islamic wedding at the new and very beautiful center at 96th Street and 3rd Avenue. The Ramba"m, Miamodondies, gives specific permission for Jews to pray in Mosques in his Helkai Yoseh (No 18 if my memory is correct), and Shaareh, traditional Muslim law, says an Observant Jew, is a valid witness in an Islamic court. As a teacher of architectural acoustics at City College, I was invited by the New York League of Women Arab Architects to talk on the Mehtizah, the divide constructed in Orthodox Synagogues for sex-separation.
David K: Your vile posts about Sweden reveal your extreme bias.They do not belong on a thread about the Covid-19.
charlie hebdo David K: Your vile posts about Sweden reveal your extreme bias.They do not belong on a thread about the Covid-19.
And Israel does everything right.
I hope Israelis and Palestinians get through this crisis. And I hope both sides will learn from this and find a compromise for peaceful coexistence.
Perhaos you are not aware of this news. The State Department has designated the Russian white supremacist group, Russian Imperial Movement, as a terrorist group. The two Swedish nationals responsible for a series of bombings in Sweden targeting Muslim immigrants in 2016 were trained for eleven days in Russia, which has become the center of Neo-Nazi/fascist groups. "They're baaack!"
ATLANTIC CENTRALSo, what do we think about Sweden?
Statistical outlier would be my best guess.
I'd be highly reluctant to drop my guard solely because of their potentially aberrant experience.
When weighing potential death against economic sacrifice, I think that an abundance of caution is justfied.
Convicted One ATLANTIC CENTRAL So, what do we think about Sweden? Statistical outlier would be my best guess. I'd be highly reluctant to drop my guard solely because of their potentially aberrant experience. When weighing potential death against economic sacrifice, I think that an abundance of caution is justfied.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL So, what do we think about Sweden?
Thank you for a sincere and direct opinion, so far, as a laymen regarding medicine, I agree.
I guess we will see. But I have those concerns about the serious social side effects.
In my experience studying history, the tipping points come suddenly despite lots of warning.
Examples being the 1929 crash, the war between the states, a couple of world wars............
Not a statistical outlier, Sweden get's it, maybe someone looked at the U.K.'s numbers before they decided to go the route the rest of the world(250k dead out of a population of 56 million = .5%) and realized it was smarter to isolate those most susceptible, let everyone else get it, let their medical system only deal with those severly ill and keep the economy going.
Not to be callous here but look at it from this view, the Worlds population stands at around 8 Billion people, over a quarter of those people live in two countries, China and India, both of which could use a huge population knock down. China maybe or maybe not blew their chance to let NATURE do it's job(a second wave of infections is starting there now), they could lose 1/3 of their population and still have enough to run the country, same goes for India. This falls directly under the Darwin theory of "Survival of the Fittest", and if you don't think so, go back and relearn the simplest defintion of that law of nature.
Caution be damned, full speed ahead, don't mind the torpedo's.
Convicted One Where did he get the notion that "something like this happens every hundred years"? Was that an idea that was promoted in the book? Is there historical precedent to support this?
I don't recall any mention of this in the book (may be in the book though).
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