BaltACD charlie hebdo I agree. It's easy for Taiwan to isolate, however. Germany has done a good job. Low death rate and lots of accurate testing. If we had simply acquired their test, we would have been better off. Instead we have an uncoordinated mish-mash. When you proclaim no responsibility you also broadcast you are not a leader.
charlie hebdo I agree. It's easy for Taiwan to isolate, however. Germany has done a good job. Low death rate and lots of accurate testing. If we had simply acquired their test, we would have been better off. Instead we have an uncoordinated mish-mash.
When you proclaim no responsibility you also broadcast you are not a leader.
We do not have a leader, only an ignorant would-be Führer.
NKP: It's pointless to try to have a rational discussion with Trumpists like Erik or Euclid.
Erik_MagTrump shares Obama's problem of an enormous ego and willingness to blame others.
Besides Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, what President since 1933* didn't have "an enormous ego"? "Ordinary" men don't run for the Presidency.
And to compare Obama's ego with Trump's? Ridiculous.
One of those Presidents is borderline-mentally ill, and it isn't Mr. Obama.
* possible exceptions: Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter
BaltACD When you proclaim no responsibility you also broadcast you are not a leader.
Several of the (D) governors have said that Trump has done a reasonable of getting supplies were needed. It also appears that Trump had a better feel for how many ventilators NY needed than Cuomo. Trump also got the ball rolling on the virus response in January at a time the Dr. Fauci has said it was not likely to be a problem. Trump shares Obama's problem of an enormous ego and willingness to blame others.
Trump's touting of HCQ as a treatment was reasonable though he did go overboard on it. There have been reports over the years of possible antiviral effectiveness, a plausible method of action and some anecdotes of effectiveness against COVID-19. Thinking of LOGISTICS, HCQ is cheap, production can be ramped rapidly and the side effects are well known (better to have a fair medication NOW, versus a perfect one ten years from now). The low cost and wide availability means that it can be used early in the course of infection, provided that it proves to be effective (there is a thorough test in progress).
My biggest qualm with leadership is the poor understanding of the models used to predict case rates and of how the virus is actually spread. The IHME model is a curve fitting exercize, good for predicting maybe a week in the future. It does seem to take into account differences in the daily experiences of rural versus urban areas. The April 10 version of the model Newsom is using shows today's hospital beds used at 4 times higher than actual usage (Apr 1 version is 8X higher than actual). The lifetime of virus indoors can be days, while may be a few minutes outdoors on a hot, humid sunny day.
Changing subjects slightly: I think having multiple tests is a good thing (Manhattan Project strategy), better to have fair data now than perfect data in the future. The other aspect is that it helps get the best test in the long run.
Germany did well in part as they quickly got the data on what was likely the first case in the country and thus were able to thoroughly investigate how the disease was spread. One example was being spread by contact with a salt shaker. The US had community spread in progress well before anyone was being tested for it. Lastly, the experience in the US is vastly different between the NYC area and the rest of the country - there has been on new case reported in my city in the last two weeks.
Overmod charlie hebdo https://apnews.com/a758f05f337736e93dd0c280deff9b10 Where we were slow. How clever of them to invoke the idea of 'narrative' to distract us from the clever, verging on sly, use of language in this article to nail Trump. It is very, very, very true that, if a tight ban on people who 'had been to China' is imposed, the very next logical step is to similarly ban people who 'had been to China and returned from there to other countries before then proceeding to the United States -- which is the gist of what I understand the point of criticizing 'delayed response' to be. In the practical context of observed history I'd expect this to have been met by even more of the "response" we saw from 'the usual Democrats' at the time it was meaningful to repidly impose it. So righteous 20/20-hindsight selective spin of blame is not precisely the smoking gun that's trying to be created here. It's certainly a cautionary tale, and an important lesson learned, for future emergent-pandemic response. As is careful policy to avoid 'racial perceptions' when actually taking steps to arrest potential travel-borne spread from an infected region all the way to a particular country.
charlie hebdo https://apnews.com/a758f05f337736e93dd0c280deff9b10 Where we were slow.
Where we were slow.
How clever of them to invoke the idea of 'narrative' to distract us from the clever, verging on sly, use of language in this article to nail Trump.
It is very, very, very true that, if a tight ban on people who 'had been to China' is imposed, the very next logical step is to similarly ban people who 'had been to China and returned from there to other countries before then proceeding to the United States -- which is the gist of what I understand the point of criticizing 'delayed response' to be. In the practical context of observed history I'd expect this to have been met by even more of the "response" we saw from 'the usual Democrats' at the time it was meaningful to repidly impose it. So righteous 20/20-hindsight selective spin of blame is not precisely the smoking gun that's trying to be created here.
It's certainly a cautionary tale, and an important lesson learned, for future emergent-pandemic response. As is careful policy to avoid 'racial perceptions' when actually taking steps to arrest potential travel-borne spread from an infected region all the way to a particular country.
The article seems to contain a lot of disconnceted and incomplete thoughts.
Here is something I have heard: China made an effort to close off Wuhan, and prevent people from leaving Wuhan to enter other parts of China. At the same time, they allowed people to freely leave Wuhan to travel to other countries. It this true?
If so, why would China allow people to leave Wuhan and travel outside of China when they knew it was too dangerous to let them travel in China outside of Wuhan?
charlie hebdohttps://apnews.com/a758f05f337736e93dd0c280deff9b10 Where we were slow.
charlie hebdoI agree. It's easy for Taiwan to isolate, however. Germany has done a good job. Low death rate and lots of accurate testing. If we had simply acquired their test, we would have been better off. Instead we have an uncoordinated mish-mash.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
https://apnews.com/a758f05f337736e93dd0c280deff9b10
I agree. It's easy for Taiwan to isolate, however. Germany has done a good job. Low death rate and lots of accurate testing. If we had simply acquired their test, we would have been better off. Instead we have an uncoordinated mish-mash.
charlie hebdo Cuomo did not have the power to shut down Kennedy.
Cuomo did not have the power to shut down Kennedy.
No argument there, my criticism of Cuomo was that he took too long to impose a shutdown order on his own state. I do think he was out of line critizing other states imposing quaratine on travelers from the NYC area I also specifically said that international travel bans were the president's job.
Outside of the NYC are hotspots, the US record has been pretty good in comparison to most other countries (though bad when compared to Taiwan - who did have leadership acutely aware of viral epidemics).
Erik_MagOne other misstep on Trump's part was not putting pressure on the CDC to get testing kits out and not issuing an executive order to let other labs develop their own tests.
From what I understand from Redfield, CDC lost little if any time (none of it particularly 'blameable' except by agenda-driven hacks) in developing an effective and manufacturable test directly from the sequence data. I suspect that if someone writes a fair history of this crisis there will be some admiration for the actual combination of science and technology that combined in this effort.
Where it seems "CDC" fell down was in supervising quality control of the test reagents after the tests were greenlighted for quantity production. That is apparently what had people high up 'falling on their swords' with Japanese-style apologies ... but a corresponding part of the story is that states receiving the tests insisted that any replacement reagents come only through the CDC, and hence through procurement bureaucracy, if I learned the story correctly only in the form of new complete packaged 'working' tests.
To me it makes sense to 'freeze' the design for something to be rolled out in emergency mass quantities, to be analyzed by a necessary variety of labs, and to produce meaningful statistics to aid epidemiology efforts. Having multiple ad hoc proprietary tests, perhaps of dubious comparability, processed heaven knows where with who knows what lead times, would itself become a matter of censure in anything less than explosive outbreak propagation or acceleration of perceived deaths ... which in the United States largely postdated the test-development logistics agenda.
One of the lessons I hope has been learned is how to build a certain amount of 'agile' style response into test development, procurement, and deployment, so that in future if 'field problems' are encountered with testing, it can be modified within the necessary framework of trust for 'distributed users' including other social or government agencies.
Cuomo did not have the power to shut down Kennedy. Trump failed to coordinate efforts of the agencies (which earlier had been stripped down using the Steve Bannyon model) and still doesn't. Perfect storm.
Criticism? Impeachment? Real leaders can handle criticism constructively, but not pathological narcissists. Impeachment's end result was a done deal months before. But for a narcissist, it threatened his stability.
Taking into account the limits on the power of the president versus the powers of the states, here's what I think the president would needed to have done differently:First (early January) - Ban anyone traveling through China from entering with the exception of citizens and permanent residents and subject those who do enter to quarantine.Second: Set similar travel restrictions for people coming from Europe at the first sign of community spread there.Third: Limit travel from areas in the US with high rates of infection. Rhode Island was right in wanting to quarantine people coming in from NYC.
Note that all of the above steps would have generate an enourmous amount of pushback, especially considering the impeachment process was going on at the time of the frsit proposed step. Also note the the China travel ban was getting a lot of criticism when it was implemented in January (Pelosi, Biden).
One other misstep on Trump's part was not putting pressure on the CDC to get testing kits out and not issuing an executive order to let other labs develop there own tests.
As for New York, they were about two weeks ahead of California in case rate, but didn't shut down until 3 days after California.
charlie hebdoWith Truman the buck stopped with him
As, arguably, did Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, the "unforeseen" Communist takeover of China, the effective theft of the atomic-bomb detail design and the groundwork for the stealing of the hydrogen-bomb planning (see whose name is on the patent for the practical thermonuclear device!) Seems to me we got little acknowledgment of those 'bucks' stopping, which are orders of magnitude more serious than taking the wrong 'expert' advice from the wrong cabal of experts.
Not that this excuses Trump by any means; in my opinion his administration's response has been lacking on many levels, and the prospective little turf fight doubtless up to a Supreme Court already likely dismayed at the prospect regarding a sitting President's authority to overrule state health policies -- whether by cobbled-up 'emergency' power or some 'executive order' legerdemain that will bring up Obama again and again and again -- is not pleasant to contemplate while we still have no operative plan to address resurgence when, not if, we see it starting.
Personally I'll be happy when the convention is over and the busy little beavers in the Democratic Party 'deep organization' stop trying to wreck Biden in various ways and just turn their attention back to Trump directly. More might be accomplished then.
DiBlasio did not react soon enough, true, but Cuomo picked up the pieces and has tried pretty successfully to mitigate. Trump delayed shut off foreign visitors from China and Europe until after hundreds of thousands had poured in through Kennedy. With Truman the buck stopped with him; with Trump and his supporters, it's "Buck, it's Obama's fault. "
Erik_MagOne of the most serious mistakes was telling people not to wear masks.
charlie hebdo Just part of the screw-up by an incompetent president and his cronies who think 60,000 dead and counting is doing a great job.
Just part of the screw-up by an incompetent president and his cronies who think 60,000 dead and counting is doing a great job.
With a more than a quarter of that total due an even more incopetent governor and an incredibly incompetent mayor. There was a national stockpile of PPE and other useful material for pandemics set up by GW Bush, but a large portion was used up during the 2009-2016 time frame without being replenished.
In a dire situation as were are in now, it is very easy to want to pin the blame on one person or smal group of people. The reality is that serious mistakes were made on multiple levels (e.g. Dr. Fauci statinng in January, that the coronavirus was going to be a non-issue). One of the most serious mistakes was telling people not to wear masks.
BaltACD GERALD L MCFARLANE JR One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source. Presuming that there was actually sufficient testing materials and test processing power. To date there is not. The State of Maryland purchased half a million tests from S. Korea for $9M. I am hearing that the supplies necessary to perfrom and process the tests are in short supply.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JR One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
Presuming that there was actually sufficient testing materials and test processing power. To date there is not.
The State of Maryland purchased half a million tests from S. Korea for $9M. I am hearing that the supplies necessary to perfrom and process the tests are in short supply.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JROne key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
Erik_Mag Case fatality rates for all of San Diego County are:80+ yrs ~26%70-79yrs ~13%60-69yrs ~5%50-59yrs ~1%0-49 less than 1% Note that the rates were based on numbers of KNOWN cases, actual infection fatality should be lower. How much lower is subject to debate, but a factor of two lower is very likely due to testing being very limited until recently. Reported cases have gone up with a higher rate of testing, but the increase is consistent with detecting cases that would not have been detected earlier. One piece of good news was that the Korean finding of people getting re-infected was mostly due to problems with testing - that means vaccines should have a good chance of working. There have been a couple of papers stating that COVID-19 can induce malaria like changes in the blood, which may explain why anti-malarial medications were showing benefits.
Case fatality rates for all of San Diego County are:80+ yrs ~26%70-79yrs ~13%60-69yrs ~5%50-59yrs ~1%0-49 less than 1%
Note that the rates were based on numbers of KNOWN cases, actual infection fatality should be lower. How much lower is subject to debate, but a factor of two lower is very likely due to testing being very limited until recently. Reported cases have gone up with a higher rate of testing, but the increase is consistent with detecting cases that would not have been detected earlier.
One piece of good news was that the Korean finding of people getting re-infected was mostly due to problems with testing - that means vaccines should have a good chance of working.
There have been a couple of papers stating that COVID-19 can induce malaria like changes in the blood, which may explain why anti-malarial medications were showing benefits.
Those percentages line up with previous estimates and projections, so it sounds like the numbers are right...they also match up with statistics from other locals, including Italia's numbers(and there's are skewed to the older group because of population).
One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
Thanks Erik. I am assuming the mortality rates will be similar in other metro areas.
charlie hebdo BaltACD Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away. I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent. As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths. Death traps. Petri dishes. "A place for Mom (to die)."
BaltACD Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away. I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent. As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths.
Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either.
And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent.
As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths.
Death traps. Petri dishes. "A place for Mom (to die)."
The local petri dish! Fairhaven
https://www.actsretirement.org/communities/maryland/fairhaven-sykesville/
Flintlock76Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
Overmod charlie hebdo Doubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant. It was professionals (in a couple of medical specialties) who first raised to me the issue of how the Italian 'higher death rate' was more likely a statistical definitional quirk rather than some latent charactistic of the Italian population -- or increased proof of Italian incompetence in addressing the pandemic. Accurate science does matter. I think there is substantial argument in the professional community against 'gaming' the death percentage either way, as is beginning to become more and more expedient for those who want numbers that confirm the interests'where they sit'. I don't treat professional office-seekers or professional opinion spinners with nearly the same respect I have for mindful medical personnel, including those in academic medicine.
charlie hebdo Doubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant.
It was professionals (in a couple of medical specialties) who first raised to me the issue of how the Italian 'higher death rate' was more likely a statistical definitional quirk rather than some latent charactistic of the Italian population -- or increased proof of Italian incompetence in addressing the pandemic. Accurate science does matter.
I think there is substantial argument in the professional community against 'gaming' the death percentage either way, as is beginning to become more and more expedient for those who want numbers that confirm the interests'where they sit'. I don't treat professional office-seekers or professional opinion spinners with nearly the same respect I have for mindful medical personnel, including those in academic medicine.
I said "professionals" meaning highly trained practitioners in the relevant specializations, along with academics from such fields of expertise, which includes their years of experience, of course. I knew very little fresh out of grad school, just a good foundation. Clinical experience and ongoing training are what matter more.
Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for.
Even if there were ZERO deaths - the health care system is being overwhelmed in the 'hot spots' as the hospital admissions are staying hospitalized for 10 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 or 60 days - using various kinds of medical equipement for longer periods of time that has heretofore been the norm.
With there having been over 1M CONFIRMED cases in the past 3 months in the USA alone, without a proven 'cure' the health care 'system' as we presently know it, is broken.
charlie hebdoDoubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant.
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