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(Tropical storm) now hurricane Dorian CAT 3 hurricane now CAT 4, now CAT 5

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, August 29, 2019 3:59 PM

Miningman

Fake news put out by very bad people who think that's clever. Hidden agendas.

Silver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases. 

 

You are simply repeating yet another of Trump's Twitter lies. 

https://www.axios.com/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes-97231f38-2394-4120-a3fa-8c9cf0e3f51c.html

And I hope you won't run to the mod squad agajn to try to lock a thread you don't like. You are simply acting as a relay station for your hero. 

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 3:55 PM

Don't know about the rest of you, but I'm looking forward to the usual news videos of the knuckleheads on Florida's east coast beaches yelling "DUDE!  SURF'S UP!" and then tempting fate with their longboards as Dorian gets close to making landfall.

Always seems to happen.

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Posted by Overmod on Thursday, August 29, 2019 1:59 PM

Miningman
Silver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases.

Problem is that the effect of seeding on a hurricane, which is a process subject to a number of effects, is not as was expected for static cloud formations.  Review the account of the earlier Project Cirrus for some of the effects (and the anticipated method of action on hurricanes in particular).

The critical observation leading to cancellation of Stormfury was that the percentage of subcooled nuclei present in the eyewall was lower than expected, so reducing them to ice crystals did not produce the expected simple kinetics to move angular momentum outward and slow the winds.  It's interesting (at least to me) that some of the very early observations in Cirrus were of orographic cloud formation, and the necessary action of the nucleation smoke on this, and a similar understanding of hurricane propagation might have led to a much earlier recognition of the types of 'intervention' involved and their relative lack of effectiveness in interfering with the process.

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Posted by Eastrail11 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 11:58 AM

blue streak 1

 

 
Eastrail11
I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane.
 

 

 

What is the highest elevation of present tracks?

 

I would give it in some places 2 ft (+- 6 inches) above the surrounding areas, but some places it is the same level as the surrounding areas. And in some very rare cases, the track is below the surrounding area.

~Eastrail

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 10:59 AM

Eastrail11
I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane.
 

What is the highest elevation of present tracks?

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Posted by Eastrail11 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 8:41 AM
I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane.

~Eastrail

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Thursday, August 29, 2019 6:52 AM

Silver iodide seeding was tried some years ago in Project Stormfury.  It didn't really work out for a variety of reasons.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by Miningman on Thursday, August 29, 2019 1:35 AM

Fake news put out by very bad people who think that's clever. Hidden agendas.

Silver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases. 

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Posted by SD70Dude on Thursday, August 29, 2019 1:30 AM

Erik_Mag

FWIW, it would be a HUGE economic and public safety benefit to be able to have a +/-50 mile error on the hurricane track five days ahead of time. Probably the most important stumbling block to that kind of forecast accuracy is sparse data we have for the for the state of the atmosphere.

Or you could just nuke it.

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Thursday, August 29, 2019 12:29 AM

To follow on Balt's posting of the forecast "cone", the "track" line is the center of the estimates for the position of the eye with respect to time. The eye of the hurricane could end up anywhere between Miami and the Georgia coast Sunday night.

FWIW, it would be a HUGE economic and public safety benefit to be able to have a +/-50 mile error on the hurricane track five days ahead of time. Probably the most important stumbling block to that kind of forecast accuracy is sparse data we have for the for the state of the atmosphere.

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, August 28, 2019 4:24 PM

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Wednesday, August 28, 2019 1:54 PM

The National Hurricane Center as of now shows Dorian as a major hurricane expected to hit Florida at Cape Canaveral on Tuesday.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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(Tropical storm) now hurricane Dorian CAT 3 hurricane now CAT 4, now CAT 5
Posted by blue streak 1 on Wednesday, August 28, 2019 12:26 PM

 


This storm is really tracking in unknown directions. It is not expected to go over the Dominican Republic so now expected to be a CAT 3 by time it hits Florida.  We can expect Amtrak service to / from Florida to be reduced probably by Saturday ? The below link will put the NE quadrant  right over Jacsonville .  CSX's precision scheduled RR may take a hit plus the combined dispatching location in JAX ?  

All this subject to change hours ago. 

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/special/storm-2019 

 

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