H.S.R. Is it a 'Deadman walking?'

[Anonymous]

samfp1943

My question is does anyone have any idea what this $53 buillion is going to buy? 

The General Accounting Office audited a representative sample of the proposed high speed rail projects.  It concluded that the estimated costs for the projects that it studied are iffy at best.  If I remember correctly, it did not come up with a total cost estimate for all the projects. 

The estimated cost for the California High Speed Project is approximately $45 billion, although it has a lot of wiggle room in it.  Given the tendency of major projects to come in over budget, I would be surprised if they build it for $45 billion.  Several months ago I worked up the true cost of the CHS Project, assuming that the $45 billion was a good base number.  Adding in legal fees, investment banking fees, and interest on the debt, I believe the total cost of the project could top $78 billion. 

The CHS Project is just one.  Given the other potential candidates identified by the DOT, I can only conclude that $53 billion is a starter number.  In any case, no one really knows what the vision for high or moderate speed rail would cost, in part because no one has laid out a comprehensive plan for the various projects on the planning boards or underway. 

[schlimm]

1. Isn't a little redundant to have several threads on the same topic?

2. If Pres. Obama had said the $53 bil. were going to rebuild infrastructure for our freight railroads, I wonder if the reaction would be the the same on this forum?

[samfp1943]

Found this link to an article about HSR, I thought it migh be of interest here:

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/gordon/389255

FTA: "...[BULLET TRAINS]They need dedicated, carefully engineered lines that might well run $50 million a mile to construct. That would be $20 billion for construction alone (ignoring minor matters such as tunnels under the Hudson River). If they sold 10 million tickets a year on that line, they would have to charge $100 per ticket just to cover the interest on the construction costs.Then there are the land-acquisition costs (which would be huge in this part of the country), the cost of the rolling stock, fuel costs, maintenance costs, labor costs, and so on.  Unsubsidized, it would probably be cheaper for a party of six to charter a jet to fly from Boston to Washington than to take the bullet train..."

[wairoa]

I do not know if HSR is DOR. I do wonder if we would  be better investing in MAGLEV instead. I believe Japan is getting ready to build a a long distance MAGLEV line, as they believe they have almost reached the maximum speed achievable with HSR.

I do not see how 53 bn is going to enable 80% of the US population within distance of HSR.

I will be very surprised if the president gets $53 bn for HSR. Now if he wanted to buy products offered by the "military industrial complex" he could spend as much as he liked.

[samfp1943]

According to a piece in TRAINS Newswire for this date.

   President Obama is going to push for a funding package for HSR to the tune of some $53 Billion dollars. His stated goal is to provide 80per cent of the country access to HSR by 2020.

  There is a long Thread running concurrently under this topic 'Passenger' that is debating HSR. The referenced piece is alluding to Fred W. Frailey's contention that HSR is now a Dead on Arrival goal.  Thus it seems as if the President is working to raise a Zombie (?) from its grave.

   There is another discussion running on the topic TRANSIT referencing the projects in Louisiana (at NOLA) and in Minnesota (Minn./StPaul)  to spend some $1.2 Billion dollars to fund a total of 13.5 miles of Light Rail and Trolley lines.  The givenis that Heavy Rail is much more expensive per mile than the Urban Commuter Services; HSR by virtue of it's fully enclosed envelope of ROW and the need for crossing both over and under to be bridged makes it Very,Very expensive to Engineer, Buy ROW, and then Construct, finally to Operate.

   My question is does anyone have any idea what this $53 buillion is going to buy?  I realize that it is most probably just some "seed Money", but are their any guesses what a completed system might cost.

  I would expect that the NIMBY's along the routes will do everything they can to stop it and make the legal costs virtually astronomical.  Adding those costs to the finished product; any ideas as to final cost or bets that it would Ever be done?