schlimm BucyrusNot everybody believes in the so-called multiplier effect. Not everybody believes in a round earth or landing on the moon, either!
BucyrusNot everybody believes in the so-called multiplier effect.
Not everybody believes in a round earth or landing on the moon, either!
While it is anecdotal, more members of my family receive their income from public employment- teachers, librarian, soldier, psychologist, rocket scientist-than from the private sector. Don't know of any that burn their paychecks in a fire in the fireplace.
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo Possum "We have met the anemone... and he is Russ." Bucky Katt "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics
From the forum comments, you would think that the deal would not only have China supplying ballast, the caps on top of the catenary suppports and everything in between. And the labor.
HSR is not rocket surgery. We have the expertise necessary to design, build maintain and operate. Want a surprise? Much of that expertise can be found at Amtrak. What we don't have right now is an American company with a modern design for passenger cars on a shelf and an existing plant to manufacture the vehicles. Such a company is not going to come into existance without some reasonable level of risk that a market will exist long enough to be a profitable venture. Of course there are a number of passenger car builders that are headquartered in foreign countries, but if we insist they will build or buy the parts and assemble the cars in the U.S.
There is one thing foreign companies do not have, and that is the expertise to work through our permitting process. That is the biggest reason that I do not expect a foreign based company to ever do a grounds up equipment and all turn-key HSR service in the U.S.
Bucyrus henry6 Bucyrus, you know nothing has been done re: HSR so it is entirely possible that somebody along the way will have it or part of it done by private industry with government insured loans if not government loans period. Look at today's gaspipeline story in Trains newswire. And that $8 billion downpayment is exactly why I fear China, it's power and influence on us now and for the future and fear making that indebtedness...financial and othewise...larger. I agree with your fear of China holding too much U.S. debt, but I also fear just the prospect of too much U.S. debt period, no matter who holds it. So far, I have not heard any mention of the consideration of our national HSR being funded by private investment. You mentioned government-backed loans to private developers, but that still has all the attributes of a publicly financed project. I just don’t think that the majority of proposed HSR has the money-making potential to attract private investment. It is not being promoted in a way that suggests it will make more money than it costs. It is being promoted as simply a public good. While we have talked about my objection to unfair distribution of HSR costs to those who will not use it, that is the least of my concerns. So just to be clear, here are the four reasons I oppose national HSR in order from least concern to highest concern. 1) The unfairness of the personal disparity between users and the payers. 2) The overall disparity between total cost of HSR and its total usefulness. 3) The detrimental economic effect of the deficit spending needed to build and operate HSR 4) The inefficiency of building and operating HSR as publicly funded, government-run endeavor. If HSR is built with private investment, as you suggest, then my four abovementioned concerns evaporate.
henry6 Bucyrus, you know nothing has been done re: HSR so it is entirely possible that somebody along the way will have it or part of it done by private industry with government insured loans if not government loans period. Look at today's gaspipeline story in Trains newswire. And that $8 billion downpayment is exactly why I fear China, it's power and influence on us now and for the future and fear making that indebtedness...financial and othewise...larger.
Bucyrus, you know nothing has been done re: HSR so it is entirely possible that somebody along the way will have it or part of it done by private industry with government insured loans if not government loans period. Look at today's gaspipeline story in Trains newswire.
And that $8 billion downpayment is exactly why I fear China, it's power and influence on us now and for the future and fear making that indebtedness...financial and othewise...larger.
But compare it to the aforementioned ethanol pipeline: private enterprise looking for 80% gurarentee from the US government.
RIDEWITHMEHENRY is the name for our almost monthly day of riding trains and transit in either the NYCity or Philadelphia areas including all commuter lines, Amtrak, subways, light rail and trolleys, bus and ferries when warranted. No fees, just let us know you want to join the ride and pay your fares. Ask to be on our email list or find us on FB as RIDEWITHMEHENRY (all caps) to get descriptions of each outing.
I agree with your fear of China holding too much U.S. debt, but I also fear just the prospect of too much U.S. debt period, no matter who holds it.
So far, I have not heard any mention of the consideration of our national HSR being funded by private investment. You mentioned government-backed loans to private developers, but that still has all the attributes of a publicly financed project. I just don’t think that the majority of proposed HSR has the money-making potential to attract private investment. It is not being promoted in a way that suggests it will make more money than it costs. It is being promoted as simply a public good.
While we have talked about my objection to unfair distribution of HSR costs to those who will not use it, that is the least of my concerns. So just to be clear, here are the four reasons I oppose national HSR in order from least concern to highest concern.
1) The unfairness of the personal disparity between users and the payers.
2) The overall disparity between total cost of HSR and its total usefulness.
3) The detrimental economic effect of the deficit spending needed to build and operate HSR
4) The inefficiency of building and operating HSR as publicly funded, government-run endeavor.
If HSR is built with private investment, as you suggest, then my four abovementioned concerns evaporate.
oltmanndSo, you vote HSR is mostly about jobs rather than transportation? I think that is really the two possible reasons to do it. One is jobs. You plow money into any endeavor and someone has to do it - including the multiplier effect. You could pay people to do anything at all, and get this. The other is to provide a good or service. Whoever can do it for the least, does the most good for all of us. We get to have it for the least cost. That "unspent" money can go for some other stuff for us all to have.
No:: It is about both as all infrastructure projects should be. I take umbrage with make-work jobs that do not contribute to the overall long term welfare of our country such as many studys.
Jobs that are important right now will not provide as much multiplier effect because so many of the persons getting these jobs will have to pay off debt and will only help the banks. But still there will be persons purchasing items that are past useable life and needs replacing. that means more jobs building replacement inventory. One criticism of the multiplier effect I've had is this replacing of debt. The opposite may have fueled our race to the present economic problems esp banks.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Not everybody believes in the so-called multiplier effect. A lot of people say that it is like scooping water out of the deep end of the pool and dumping it the shallow end to make that end deeper. If the government had a large pool of saved, unspent revenue money, it could indeed stimulate the economy with it. But, as it is, the government has no money. So when it spends money to make a multiplier effect, it must borrow the money from other countries or mortgage the future taxpayers to get it. The money the government spends to create a multiplier effect is pure debt, so there is nothing to multiply.
Think about it. If governments could actually create wealth by borrowing and spending money, there would be no poverty in the world. There would be no want. It would be like creating prosperity by magic.
Generally when governments spend money to get a multiplier effect, the only thing that gets multiplied is the size of government.
US bidders???? Are there any??? I cant think of a single US based company that has any kind of proven track record producing HST trains or technology. Bombadier is Canadian based. Every successfull HST project around the world is based on proven, mostly French, German, or Japanese technologies, now the Chinese are trying to horn in on this market while all we do here is continue argueing over pointless political bickering while our infrastructure collapses.
Have fun with your trains
blue streak 1Buy Chinese? Are we not forgetting the multiplier effect of any construction or equipment purchases. That is part of what 'buy USA" is about.
Buy Chinese? Are we not forgetting the multiplier effect of any construction or equipment purchases. That is part of what 'buy USA" is about.
Are these mutually exclusive positions? Is there some measurable optimum combination?
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
henry6Considering how much we are indebted to China now it is difficult to want them to give us more. Our investor community has to learn to do with less: work for long term return, work with lower rate, work with sense of responsibility to the United States as a whole and not to their individual personal gain to the greatest extend possible.
What does this have to do with our investor community? HSR is not going to built by investors. It will be built by government borrowing money from the future taxpayers.
henry6The U.S. can do it, we just have to wait for the ripening of the fruits of our labors instead of taking down payments and letting the future generations suffer for it.
Didn’t we just take an $8 billion dollar down payment, leaving the future generations to suffer for it?
Considering how much we are indebted to China now it is difficult to want them to give us more. Our investor community has to learn to do with less: work for long term return, work with lower rate, work with sense of responsibility to the United States as a whole and not to their individual personal gain to the greatest extend possible. They will of course come back on me that it is union labor that causes off shore manufacturing and supply when it has been their greater greed. The U.S. can do it, we just have to wait for the ripening of the fruits of our labors instead of taking down payments and letting the future generations suffer for it.
oltmanndDevil's advocate: Let's say we start bidding out HSR and we can get twice as much from the Chinese as we can from anybody else. You for it or against it? ..and why?
Oh gee, I think I am against it. Were we to purchase components for HSR from anyone but Americans, that would be a great shame regarding our inability to compete -- it would be pathetic. And the Chinese are unsavory as are the Europeans although less unsavory than the Chinese. Can't tell if people from China or Europe indeed taste bad (are unsavory) as the only women I have ever kissed are all Americans, but I guess that makes me an unrepentant jingoist as none of the women I ever dated were immigrants, from China, Europe, Canada, or any other such place. I dated a woman from Puerto Rico, who tried to teach jingoistic me some Spanish, but Puerto Rico is really America.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
IIRC, correctly General electric has stated that they want to find a Chinese partner as they seek to enter the electrified HSR market. I do wonder if this would mean that GE would be a party to "Pirating" European technology..
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
If possible, we should "Buy American." Unfortunately, a lot of what is needed for HSR (including ROW engineering, electrification as well as rolling stock) isn't made by American companies. So it is hardly surprising that "outsiders" are stepping into the void. Perhaps the best we can hope for is products made here by subsidiaries of foreign-owned corporations that employ a lot of US workers (eg., Siemens US has 60,000 employees here).
We should at least try to build them ourselves. Buy American, folks...
But of course, Europe is a less unsavory option than China.
Well, China has lent us so much money, China has backed our debt. China is doing a large part of our manufacaturing in production. So now they can take us over without firing a shot! And they're coming by train!
Just what we need, a third party to repackage back to us what we could purchase directly from Europe ourselves:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-to-bid-on-US-highspeed-apf-4135137999.html?x=0
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