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<p></p> <div><span lang="EN-US">As the decision was made by Amtrak long ago there won’t be proof for neither opinion. What we do here is like crying over spilt milk.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">[quote user="243129"]As I stated in another post the train beats the plane midtown to midtown. No competition there.[/quote]</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">What is correct today can change tomorrow. It is not a given, Amtrak has to work for it. Losing the fast Acela service could turn the trend back to car, bus, and air travel especially if check-in gets faster.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Deutsche Bahn has learned the hard way that long-distance bus service is a serious competition, not regarding travel times but fares.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">[quote user="243129"]No, the 20 minutes are not worth the money. The Acela did not create the market, the market was there due to an aging Interstate and population surge in the northeast.[/quote]</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Perhaps a few numbers make Amtrak’s decision for an Acela Express replacement better understandable.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">I’ll use the Amtrak Monthly Performance Report September 2017 that contains separate numbers for Acela Express and Regional trains for fiscal year 2017. 2018 is not out yet.</span></div> <div><a href="https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/projects/dotcom/english/public/documents/corporate/monthlyperformancereports/2017/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-September-2017-Preliminary-Unaudited.pdf"><span lang="EN-US"><a>https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/projects/dotcom/english/public/documents/corporate/monthlyperformancereports/2017/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-September-2017-Preliminary-Unaudited.pdf</a></span></a></div> <div><strong><span lang="EN-US">Acela Express:</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"> Ticket Revenue $597.2 million; Ridership 3.442 million;</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">Passenger miles 651.1 million;</span> average Miles/person 190, average Fare/person $174.6</span></div> <div><strong><span lang="EN-US">Regional:</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"> Ticket Revenue $638.7 million; Ridership 8.570 million; Passenger miles 1,330.3 million; average Miles/person 156, average Fare/person $74.6</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">If one eliminates the Acela Express service completely one loses $597.2 million in revenue. If all passengers switch to Regionals you regain 3.442 x 74.6 = $256.8 million. Adjusted for the longer Acela rides you get 256.8 x 190/156 = $312.8 million.</span></div> <div><strong><span lang="EN-US">That results in a worst case revenue loss of $284.4 million per year</span></strong><span lang="EN-US">.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">How large the loss of revenue really would get depends on the replacement. Rebuilt Amfleet cars lead to the worst case, new locomotive drawn trains to less. In both cases Amtrak can't ask for Acela fares.<br /></span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">All 28 Avelia Liberty trainsets cost $2.0 billion according to an Alstom press release, $71,53 million per set. </span><a href="https://www.alstom.com/press-releases-news/2016/8/alstom-to-provide-amtrak-with-its-new-generation-of-high-speed-train">https://www.alstom.com/press-releases-news/2016/8/alstom-to-provide-amtrak-with-its-new-generation-of-high-speed-train </a></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Alstom will provide <em><span style="font-family:'Arial','sans-serif';">long-term technical support and supply spare components and parts for the maintenance of the new trainsets for this price.</span></em></span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">What does a comparable 125 mph locomotive drawn train with locomotive and 6 cars cost?</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Septa paid $8.7 million for ACS-64, Amtrak paid 2.3 million per car from CAF and Caltrans $2.7 million per PRIIA car from Siemens. So this train will cost about $25 million.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">The difference between the two trainsets is $46.53 million.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">In case of locomotive drawn trains Amtrak has to pay about $700 million with substantially less revenue. The Avelia Liberty cost $2 billion but in this case without loss of revenue.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Unscientifically expressed, the Avelia Libertys are paid by the avoided revenue losses within the useful life of the trainsets.</span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">The above numbers help me to understand why Amtrak might have chosen a Acela Express replacement and not a conventional train. </span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">I think the 20 minutes less are worth the cost of the Avelia Liberty as it not just the shorter travel time that draws passengers to the Acela Express, it is the different travel experience too. Do you remember the discussions here about LD trains and food service? A lot was about the worse travel experience without traditional dining cars. <br /></span></div> <div><span lang="EN-US">Additionally I can’t imagine your Congress giving money for any NEC track improvements when there is no high-speed train on the property.<br /> Regards, Volker</span></div> <p> </p> <div> </div> <p> </p>
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