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[quote user="Euclid"]I do not see what is is about my description that conflicts with what you descibe. What I am saying is that perhaps Amtrak has suddenly turned a corner that is leading them into a rash of bad accidents, and the statistics have not caught up to reflect that turning of the corner. So we are suddenly heading down a bad road and the statistics still say everything is fine. [/quote] Than you should perhaps read the statistic again. The number of human error caused Amtrak accidents was 2, IIRC. Not more than in the years before but much less than in the early 2000s. If there were a turnaround there should have been more than 2 accidents. [quote user="Euclid"]The 501 wreck alone looks like it will be a huge indicator of a worsening trend. [/quote] In the sense of the statistic the 501 wreck only shows that a human error can have fatal consequences, nothing more. [quote user="Euclid"]The wreck points to a cause in the highest institutional levels of Amtrak where they put their politics ahead of safety in rushing for a new startup that was not ready.[/quote] Remember, the statistic wasn't used by its poster to clear Amtrak, nor do I. I understood the statistic as another indicator why Amtrak, in the light of the statistic, might not have seen the need to discuss ideas for improving hiring and vetting. The statistic doesn't exclude that something  is wrong within Amtrak, it only shows that Amtrak got much better regarding human error accidents over the last 30 years. Perhaps not everything they did was wrong? That might have been their impression. The devilish thing about human errors are that they can be without any consequences like a red signal violation or with fatal consequences like #501. Often happenstance decides which way. [quote user="Euclid"]But it is probably more likely that it will not be corrected precisely because Amtrak will not accept the criticism or the blame. If that is the case, look for more dramatic crashes and a statistical record that is finally catching up with that worsening trend.[/quote] The statistic doesn't look into the future. It shows a trend of decreasing numbers human error accidents at Amtrak. Though numbers are lower than before there are two with heavy consequences which need watching to avoid that the trend reverses. In the NTSB hearing Amtrak talked about implementing a safety management system. The system will only work with an open error culture. When you want to avoid mistakes the systems needs to learn of all of them. But employees won't report if they have to fear disciplinary consequenses. Does that work in the railroad industry? Regards, Volker
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