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death by a thousand slices
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<p>[quote user="schlimm"]</p> <p>. UP through 12/31/2014:</p> <p>Operating income: <strong>$<span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:19.5px;text-align:right;">8,767 million </span></strong></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:19.5px;text-align:right;">total debt : <strong>$11,480 million </strong>total liabilities: <strong>$31,528 million </strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:19.5px;text-align:right;">That yields ratios of 130.9% or more comparably 359.6%, yet I have n't heard anyone saying the UP cannot spend a penny to invest in better infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:19.5px;text-align:right;">Even in business, you have to spend money to make money. </span>[/quote]</p> <p>The key debt ratios for UP or any private business are long term debt to equity, total debt to assets, total debt to capital, total debt to equity, and interest coverage.</p> <p>For the UP, at the end of 2014, the ratios were 49.14% long term debt to equity; 21.18% total debt to assets; 24.25% total debt to capital; and 51.49 per cent total debt to equity. </p> <p>UP's debt structure is well below that of the industry averages and is manageable. </p> <p>The debt for a private business is micro-economics. The debt for a nation is macro-economics. The two are not comparable.</p> <p>UP's interest rate coverage is 9.34, which means it had $9.34 of income at the end of 2014 to cover every dollar of its interest burden. Its cash flows are more than adequate to cover the interest on its debt.</p> <p>A business invests in property, plant, and equipment to make money. Most large business organizations, at least, have sophisticated financial models to determine the probability of earning a return on their investments.</p> <p>The problem for passenger rail, at least in the initial stages, is that it does not generate a return on invested capital. It soaks up resources.</p> <p>Determing an interest rate coverage for the U.S. Government is not possible. It had a deficit of $680 billion in 2013, as per the CBO, and the deficits are expected to continue for the next decade. </p> <p>If one uses the same model as analysts use to determine interest rate coverage for a business, the government has negative interest rate coverage. Not a good outcome!</p> <p>Interest on the national debt in 2013 was 7.8 per cent of federal revenues. The CBO estimates that interest on the national debt will consume 16.3 per cent of federal revenues by 2024. Comparatively, although they really are not comparable, UP's interest expense in 2014 consumed 2.2 per cent of revenues.</p> <p>The biggest concern is not the current interest burden generated by the debt; it is the burden in the out years as interest rates return to normal, and the national debt, as well as state and local debt, continues to increase.</p> <p>I still have the same question. Where will the money come from to build a new, high speed railroad for the NEC?</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p>
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