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[quote user="blue streak 1"]  <blockquote class="quote"> <div class="quote-user">Sam1</div> <div class="quote-content"> As I understand it two of the major contributors to the current backlog are the bumper grain crop, which was held-up in part by bad weather last year, and the increased shipments of oil.   What happens to the capacity constraints once the grain backlog has been cleared?  Also, what happens to shale oil demand if the bottom falls out of the oil market.   If there is a compelling case to expand capacity, the nation's freight railroads could turn to overseas suppliers for  materials.  </div> </blockquote>   1.  That may be assuming that the growth is all oil and grain.  But is it ?  Present stats show a growth of non oil and grain  5 - 7 % over comparable weeks for last year. That certainly is not linear over the whole USA rail system.  We actually have some routes down in total trafic and others up much more and oil & grain is almost none.  2.  Deliivery costs of out of USA equipment especially rail might be very expensive.  As well do any overseas builders even make RE rail to AAR standards ?  There is only one manufacturer now left in the USA.  3. The DOT projections of 2040 traffic growth of 40% + were completed before the oil boom was even a thought.  The grain plenty of these two years may be continuing or not.  That makes capital and equipment purchasing problemmatic ?  How much long term planning is needed to ramp up equipment production ? . [/quote] As noted oil and grain appear to be two major contributors.  They are not the only contributors. Interestingly, according to the American Association of Railroads (AAR), total carloads of freight for 2013, which was approximately 1.8 million, were fewer than the 1.9 million carloads hauled in 2008.  The number of carloads of petroleum has increased by more than 33 per cent from 2012, but still puts them as a small percentage of total carloads. In 2012, according to the Class I statistics published by the AAR in July 2013, which is the last easy to access comparative statistics that I could find, coal made up 41 per cent of the tons originated by the Class 1s and generated 21.6 per cent of revenues. Petroleum products (oil, fracking sand, etc.) made up 2.5 per cent of the tons originated and generated 3.4 per cent of the reveunes. Even after accounting for the dramatic increase in the amount of oil being shipped by rail, it still constitutes a relatively small part of the total tons moved by rail. But it along with the increase in the amount of grain being shippped could be the straw that has broken the camel's back or at least given it a heck of a backache.  My point was that before the railroads make a major investment in their plant, they need to be sure that the increase in traffic will be on-going and not a one-off.  Unlike a government enterprise, which can fob its mistakes off on the taxpayers, an investor owned company's shareholders have to eat its mistakes.
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