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[quote user="V.Payne"] Go back and look at the DFM pollsof red state districts from thevery first post to pick those apart. [/quote] None of the polls that you references, if I remember correctly, used statistical sampling. Moreover, even if they did, all of them relied on telephone interviews, the results are suspect.  The consultants that we used (McKinsey & Company, Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Planmetrics, Anon Hewitt) would not rely just on the results of telephone interviews. When the electric utility business in Texas was de-regulated, we used professional polling organizations to help us understand what people want from their electric energy company.  The pollsters use statistical sampling to draw a sample.  They used questionnaires and/or telephone interviews, followed-up by one on one interviews and focus groups.   Every other year we conducted an employee opinion survey (poll).  It was conducted by a professional polling organization out of New York.  We wanted the poll to be independent and bias free or as free of bias as possible. Every employee was given an opportunity to complete a questionnaire or respond to a telephone interview.  These were followed-up for a statistical sample of employees by personal, in-depth interviews and focus groups.   Telephone interviews produce what some pollsters refer to as a cloudy lens.  It is a bit like what one see or used to see when looking through the view finder of a 35 mm camera.  The view will be in focus only by happenstance.  Pollsters call the process of bringing the results of telephone interviews into sharp focus grinding the lens.  It is the follow-up interviews and focus groups that grind the lens. Not following up telephone interviews by personal interviews and focus groups may be OK for some groups. But it is not OK for a business organization that must get it right.  Proctor & Gamble, IBM, Microsoft, etc. don't rely exclusively on telephone polls for market research.  They have much more extensive processes to determine the market potential for the products and services.
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