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Dallas-Houston Japanese Bullet Trains
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<p>Cost per seat mile is the key determinant in where an airplane can be deployed successfully, i.e. charge a price sufficient to recover the cost and provide a return to the shareholders.</p> <p>If the seat mile cost for a Boeing 767 and Airbus 330 is equal to or less than that for a 737-700, and there is sufficient demand to recover the cost, using the larger airplane becomes feasible. This is exactly what Qantas has done on the Melbourne to Sydney run, which is somewhat longer than Dallas to Houston, i.e. 1 hour 30 minutes vs. 1 hour 5 minutes.</p> <p>Bigger airplanes would be just one possible improvement. Because of improvements in the nation's air traffic control system, which are coming on-line in increments, the system will be able to handle many more flight operations. Thus, if SW, as an example, used some of its new 737-800s on the Dallas to Houston flights, which it is doing, and doubled the number of flights between Dallas and Houston, which probably would be possible, it would have significantly greater capacity.</p> <p>If the existing air system could be expanded to transport the expected increase in passenger traffic between Dallas and Houston, that may be a better option than building a $2 billion plus railroad, although no one has shown us verifiable numbers regarding the cost of the railroad. Expanding the gates at Love Field and Hobby would be the major capital expenditure required to increase the air capacity. Would it cost as much as building a railroad? I don't know, but I doubt it. If gates can take a 737-800, in most instances they can take a 767 and 330.</p> <p>How many business travelers choose a DFW carrier to fly to Houston vs. the number on SW? Do you have the figures? Had anyone in our company flown out of DFW to Houston to get frequent flyer miles, when they could have gotten a better price on SW, they would have need a robust explanation for why they chose the more expensive fare. </p> <p>I have a TSA priority clearance. Nothing special. Practically anyone can get it if they meet the requirements and pay the fee, which is $85. Moreover, the TSA is expanding this program. It is in effect at 35 airports, with more planned, and 11 domestic air carriers. On my last flight, which was a week ago out of Austin, I cleared the TSA screening process in less than two or three minutes. According to the TSA website, more and more people are signing up for this program.</p> <p>According to the TSA, during May, the average wait time at Houston Hobby was 8 minutes, followed by 10 minutes at George Bush Intercontinental, 14.5 minutes at Love Field and 18 minutes at DFW. Of course, the amount of wait times varies during the day and the year. According to FareCompare, the average wait time at DFW was 8 minutes whilst the average wait time at Intercontinental was 19 minutes. </p> <p>Downtown to downtown on the airplane in one hour and 30 minutes would be tough, although not impossible. A key question is how many people travel from downtown Dallas to downtown Houston? Are there any verifiable passenger projections for the TCR. </p> <p>Is 1 hour, 30 minutes a realistic time for the train? The promoters of the California High Speed Rail Project published optimistic times for LAX to SF, only to have to increase them for a variety of reasons.They also had to scale back their unrealistic cost projections. And it is still not clear that they will get the funding necessary to complete the project. Why should we believe that the TCR will not encounter many of the same problems? </p> <p>The train passengers probably will be screened, as is the case between New York and Washington, where passengers are subject to random checks. Also, people taking the train will have to park, etc. So their door to door time is likely to be more than 1 hour 30 minutes.</p>
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