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Fewer New Drivers Licenses-- Is It Good for Passenger Rail?
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<p>Whether the trends noted in the Post article will be long term remains to be seen. I did not have a car until I was 27, primarily because I lived in New York City and did not need one. Equally important, I could not afford one. Eventually I got a car because of the inconvenience, dirtiness, rude passengers, and crime associated with New York City transit. At the time I got my first car I lived in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn.</p> <p>More young people are moving to or near the center city. This has been especially true in Dallas and Houston. But the percentage is relatively small.</p> <p>I lived in uptown Dallas from 2004 to 2008. It is a magnet for young professionals, many of whom work downtown, which is approximately a mile from Uptown. Almost all of the people in Uptown have a car, and very few of them used public transit to get to work. Fortunately, I was able to use the McKinney Avenue Trolly to go downtown, but it was not crowded by any stretch of the imagination.</p> <p>Increased congestion, especially along the I-35 corridor, and the higher cost of owning a car, coupled with a slight increase in the number of people living in or near city centers, will have some impact on the use of transit and perhaps intercity rail in Texas, but it is likely to be minimal. </p> <p>In 2008, according to the DOT, approximately 88 per cent of intercity trips in the U.S., being defined as 50 miles or more, were made by car. In Texas, which by the way is as large as France and nearly as large as Germany, 25 years from now I expect the numbers for intercity trips, as well as transit usage, will not be much different than they are today. What will be different, however, are how cars are owned and powered. They will be more expensive; albeit it better, and people will keep them considerably longer than was the case in the 1960s or even today. Moreover, a substantial portion of the fleet will be hybrids, electrics, and perhaps some new technologies. </p>
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