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[quote user="blue streak 1"] SAM:   <blockquote> <div><img src="/TRCCS/Themes/trc/images/icon-quote.gif" /> Sam1:</div> <div>   In Fy10 The Downeaster had an average load factor of 32.7%.  Undoubtedly, it was probably sold out on a few occasions.  More often than not, however, it ran with light loads.  In any case, the load factor was not sufficient to cover its costs.  In FY10 it lost $1.9 million before depreciation and interest. The average FY10 load factor on the state supported and other short distance corridor trains in FY10 was approximately 41 per cent.  The Lynchburg service had a load factor of 51.4%.  It had an operating profit of $2.1 million.  It was the only route outside of the Acela routes to cover its operating costs and earn an operating profit.   Here we go again on load factor. Lets take Downeaster first.  Boston North station  [ downeaster only  ].  413K passengers FY 2010 Portland Me 174K and 116 miles.  So other stations are less with the 239K traveling less miles.  Summer time outbound trains are full on fridays full returning on Sundays. Return trips close to empty. So a full train 100% return 20 - 30%. When the extension of the Downeaster is implemented I believe not all trips will go on the extension?? Someone? LYNCHBURG route  -  FY 2010 327K passengers.  Top riderships are Charlottesville - WASH, NYP, PHL, ALX,  LYN - PHL COMES IN 9TH.  LYN - WASH 173 miles CVS - WASH  112 MILES.  CVS had 89077 in FY 2010.  So the short riders lower the load factors.  CVS of course has passengers that also get on the Cardinal and Crescent.  The use on weekends by U of Va students swells ridership one way especially the Cardinal.  These students may cause many cars of the equipment positioning of those necessary cars to lower the load factor. [  ie  8 empty cars WASH - LYH - CVS then full back to WASH  ]  . Kills load factor numbers.  The Amtrak performance reports on the NEC give the peak load factor  [ some station to another  ] which is a better figure.  Another point of load factors as you sam has pointed out is Acela south of PHL.  If there was enough Acelas then NYP - PHL could have some originate /  terminate PHL or maybe go to Harrisburg  and not be running half empty to/from WASH. The load factors do not support the contention that Amtrak's routes are constrained by equipment shortages.  Clearly, on select dates, especially holidays, some trains may be sold out.  But it does not happen very often.   See above The key question is whether the incremental cost of additional capacity is offset by the incremental revenues.  And it is not just the cost of running another car.  It is the depreciation, interest, and storage cost of the additional equipment that may sit idle for most of the year.  If these costs were covered by additional revenues, I suspect that Amtrak would increase its capacity.  After all, given the pressure that it is under from numerous sources, it should be happy to demonstrate to Congress that it can increase its revenues and reduce its subsidies by more effective management of its capacity.   That statement I do agree   </div> </blockquote>   To conclude until there is enough equipment available how can Amtrak really show how many persons really want to ride? But IMHO some Congress do not want that demonstration. [/quote] "Here we go again."  Nothing condensing in that statement. How do you know that the Downeaster is maxed out on any segment on Fridays and Sundays?  Where does Amtrak published the segment loads?  Or is this just conjecture? According to Amtrak's web site, none of the Downeaster trains are sold out on Friday or Sunday through the remainder of the year.  As a matter of fact, they are not sold out on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday after Thanksgiving, which are the heaviest travel days in the U.S.  Two of the trains for this Sunday from Portland to Boston have sold out their business class seats; otherwise one can still get a reservation on any of the trains. The Downeasters carried slightly more than 478,000 passengers in FY10, according to Amtrak's Maine fact sheet.  There are ten trains a day or 3,650 per year.  On average the trains carry 131 passengers at some point on the run from Portland to Boston or vice versa.  Each Amfleet car can accommodate 84 passengers.  It appears that the train has three coaches and a cafe/business class car.  This works out to an average of 44 passengers per car, plus a certain number in business class. At 44 passengers per car, the load factor would be 52.4%, assuming that the passengers ride all the way through, which probably is not the case. As I said, on certain trains, especially those on holiday weekends and perhaps summer weekends, the load factor for selected segments of the Downeaster route is relatively high, but I don't see anywhere in the numbers where significant numbers of people are being turned away or that Amtrak's Downeaster is constrained because of equipment shortages.   If Amtrak's management had a compelling case for new equipment, it would show that the incremental costs would be covered by a higher proportional increase in revenues.  Even the most conservative members of Congress would probably go along a request to buy new equipment in this case.  The bottom line, I suspect, is that does not have a compelling case. The Congress authorized an annual support request from Amtrak.  Amtrak requests monies for its operations and capital improvement programs.  Once the request has been authorized, I am not aware that the Congress tells Amtrak's management what cars it should buy or how many should be run on each train. Come to think of it, a train system that has lost more than $26 billion since its inception does not have a compelling business case for anything other than going out of business or turning the operation over to an organization that could rationalize it and perhaps break even in select markets.
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