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Washington to New York 2009 vs. 1957
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<P mce_keep="true">[quote user="Paul Milenkovic"] <P>It seems Amtrak NEC performance is not half bad. Those CPI price deflators are always rough ballpark guess estimators because with time, the economy changes in what people spend their money on.</P> <P>Also, a 45-minute time saving for the fastest train is at least respectable.</P> <P>The question remains, what does the 45-minute time saving do for you? Does it make that big an impact or ridership? Or, would saving 20 minutes off the 1:35 Hiawatha time with 110 MPH service make a difference?</P> <P>But back to the NEC, apparently the Amtrak NEC is covering its operating expenses although way off in terms of retiring the capital debt. Perhaps this is progress?</P> <P>[/quote]</P> <P mce_keep="true">Your right! The basket of goods and services that makes up the CPI today is different from what it was in 1957. Nevertheless, many of the major components, e.g. food, housing, transportation, medical care, etc. are the same, although the weights may be different. </P> <P>The analysis contains two key points, it seems to me. One is a demonstration of the corrosive impact of inflation over time. And the other is the difficulty Amtrak or other passenger rail providers have in pricing their services to keep up with inflation and cover at least their operating costs.</P> <P>In FY08 the NEC covered its operating costs before interest and depreciation and contributed $369 million to these items. Most of the depreciation is associated with the capital improvements in the NEC. The Acela trains contributed roughly $220 million, whilst the regional operations contributed approximately $146 million. The difference is attributable to special operations.</P> <P>FY09 does not look as good. For the first half of the fiscal year, the Acela contribution was $63.1 million, but the regional trains lost $4.6 million before interest and depreciation. The FY09 results reflect an accounting change that was implemented at the beginning of the fiscal year. If the second six months looks like the first six months of FY09, the Acela trains will earn approximately $126 million before interest and depreciation whilst the regional trains will lose approximately $9 million. </P> <P>It's a bad year to be in the passenger transport business. U.S. airlines are projected to lose $9.5 billion this year before income taxes and extraordinary items. </P>
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