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[quote user="Railway Man"] [quote user="Sam1"] My question pertained to an independent audit of the claims for the various high speed rail projects, whatever that really means, that are on the table.  I am particularly interested in the California High Speed Rail project, since it appears to be the poster child for high speed rail projects. I presume by back check that you mean an independent audit of the project.  Clearly, if the audit is performed by someone who does not understand the subject matter, the audit is worthless.  This is the reason that the big accounting firms either use the engineers on their staffs or engage independent consulting engineers, like my brother, when auditing an engineering project.  In the case of the California High Speed Rail project, or any of the others, I would like to see an audit of the claimed ridership, revenues, fares, etc., which would show whether the government had any chance of recovering its investment.  Waiting until the project is completed or the government has invested heavily in it is a bit late.  [/quote]  The check is done on the original ridership, cost, revenue, technical feasibility studies.  The studies are then revised, if required, to reflect the check.  If the study says, for example, that farebox cost recovery of operating is 40% and capital is 0%, I am comfortable with that study being reasonably correct. I am not aware of any of the big accounting firms doing transportation feasibility study analysis.  I've never encountered them.  There are a number of engineering and economics firms that do this regularly.  Some of them are integrated engineering/economics firms.  They may not be brand-name in your world but they are in mine.  I have no idea if the big accounting firms would do better.  The experience of the Class 1s with them has been negative, as I understand. But this is just a piece of the larger study, which is the alternatives analysis -- if  the decision is don't build the rail system, what will be required for investment in highways, airports, etc.?   Or the economic, environmental, and social cost of doing nothing at all?  Alternatives analysis is required on many rail studies prior to federal or state dollars being awarded.  I can't summarize all the various rules because there are multiple agencies involved, and I'm by no means the expert on the regulatory environment.  It is equally simplistic to say "high-speed rail can never pay for itself" as it is to say "high-speed rail is the only obviously good alternative."  Neither is necessarily true.  Alternatives analysis is required. RWM [/quote] The key is an independent audit or check.  It would not have to be done by a big accounting firm; this is just an example.   The big accounting firms have the expertise to look at financial projections.  They would not second guess the designers; they would verify the financial projections, which is what really concerns me.  Comparing alternative investments in transport infrastructure, including doing nothing, is a valid argument, although comparative studies would be difficult to coordinate.  They would require so many estimates that the validity of the studies would be questionable.  I am not aware of any high speed railway project that has paid for itself through the fare box.  In fact, in this country, outside of a few tourist operations, passenger rail does not cover its costs.  Amtrak as an example has required more than $25 billion in federal taxpayer monies since its inception to stay afloat.  Thus, the probability that a high speed rail project can recover its costs from the users, based on experience, is not great.  Again, I did not say that high speed rail could not recover its costs; I said that there is scant probability of its doing so.  Experience is a reasonable predictor or at least starting point, although not absolute, of future outcomes.
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