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Transport Subsidies Lead to Bad Decisions

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[quote user="oltmannd"] I'd have to argue with DART not having any measurable effect on traffic - provided the more-or-less parallel freeways are currently congested at rush hour.........  Cities that grew up around freeways tend to have suburban sprawl and business-only city centers (LA, Atlanta, Dallas, Houtson)You can't expect rail transit to be a good fit for an area that grew up around freeways.  The density is too low......   The problem with express bus service, is that nobody makes development decisions around bus lines.  Have you ever heard of a new, mixed use development around a bus route?[/quote]DART has had an impact on traffic density inside its service area, albeit it low.  Approximately two per cent of the adults in the Metroplex ride the light rail and commuter rail systems.  What I said was that DART has taken few if any cars off the roads.  This is true.  But in the case of the DART and the TRE riders it has taken car miles off the road and transformed them into train miles inside the rail service area.  Most suburban rail riders (light rail and commuter rail) drive to a park & ride lot where they park the family buggy and board the train.  The net reduction in car miles is equal to the portion of their commute from where they board the train to where they get off.  DART does not know how far its light rail passengers ride.  Nor does it know what type of vehicle they parked.  Thus, it does not know how many vehicle miles its trains take off the road and, equally important, it does not know how much pollution is eliminated by those who ride its trains.  It does not know whether its passengers are Honda Civic devotees or Ford 250 drivers.   The Red Line, which runs from Plano to the Dallas CBD and on to West Moreland, which is located in southwest Oak Cliff, boards inbound passengers at the Plano terminus.  They come from Allen, Plano, etc., which are affluent communities.  A few come on a connecting bus, but most of them drive to the station.    At the West Moreland end of the line the passenger mix is markedly different from the north boarding passengers.  Although some of them drive to the West Moreland Park & Ride, many of them come on connecting buses.  And a higher proportion of them don't have access to a car.  They are not taking a vehicle off the road.  As the train proceeds to town it picks up more park & ride passengers until its gets south of Forest Lane.  From there to town a significant number of passengers are fed into the red line by connecting buses.  Interestingly, in some instances they come off connecting buses that ran downtown before the light rail line went into operation.  And even more interesting, at least to skeptics, their commute is longer, not shorter, because of the rerouting of the bus line and the transfer from the bus to the train.    As I mentioned in a previous post, approximately 40 per cent of DART's bus riders don't have a car.  The number of passengers connecting with the light rail who do not have a car is unknown.  However, DART told me that approximately 20 to 23 per cent of the light rail users don't have a car, as is true for 13 to 15 per cent of the TRE passengers.  These numbers need to be factored into any estimate of the number of vehicles and vehicle miles that the rail lines take off the road.  DART has difficulty getting information about its riders because it does not have a positive fare collection system.  Therefore, it depends on sample surveys for its information.  As you can imagine, collecting rider information on a crowded train early in the morning is a challenge.   In 2006 the light rail system carried a daily average of 50,904 passengers.  In 2007 the average number was 49,041, a decrease of 3.7 per cent.  Of course, the number is higher during the week and lower on the weekends.  Although the 2008 figures are not available, I have heard that the number of riders is up between five and eight per cent from April 2007 to April 2008.  These numbers can be found on the DART website.  The red and blue lines began operating in 1996.  Twelve years later one significant real estate development (Mockingbird Station) could be attributed to the light rail line.  In addition, with a little bit of a stretch, one could say that a redo south of downtown, as well as a new apartment complex near Presbyterian Hospital, was spawned by the light rail lines.  As I mentioned, most of the developments in Dallas have been in areas that are not and will not be served by light rail.  No one has any hard data to support an argument that the developments next to the light rail line would not have occurred if the light rail system had not been built.  In a growth area like Dallas they surely would have although not necessarily on properties close to the rail line.  DART, as well as the American Public Transit Association, has commissioned studies touting the economic benefits of light rail.  I agree with many of their findings.  But they paid for the studies.  Most auditors, at least, look askance at studies that are paid for by the client.  It tends to produce a biased report.  To stir the pot a bit further, DART and TXDOT added HOV lanes on two of the major highways that parallel the rail lines for much of the way.  As a result, a daily average of 110,000 people uses the HOV lanes.  With the exception of the HOV lane on I-30, which uses a complex movable barrier, the cost of adding the HOV lanes on I-35 and U.S. 75 was minimal.  They reduced the existing lanes by six inches, for a total of 18 inches, and eliminated the center emergency stopping lane.  Presto!  They had an HOV lane for the cost of stripping and the placement of some flex poles to mark it.  These lanes will be excellent for rapid buses if DART decides to include them in its mix.  Proponents of light rail have made a convincing argument for it in many locales.  In fact, I was a strong proponent of it in Dallas and spent many hours getting a referendum passed to make it happen.  But I have had some second thoughts about it.  Whether the results justify the cost is debatable.  Anyone who argues that a rapid bus complex and route attracts real estate development in a economic growth area would have the same challenge of proving it as the proponents of light rail.  They may think that it does.  But believing that it does and proving it are two different things. Rail is a good choice in selected environments, but those who think it is a universal solution, as seems to be favored by many folks who participate in this forum, are probably wrong.
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