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Which would you build?
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[quote user="Phoebe Vet"] <p><font color="#800000">Like most people who quote poles you are stating the numbers in the way that seems to support your belief that you speak for everyone.</font></p><p><font color="#800000">Amtrak's ridership is increasing rapidly. I have found the trains out of Charlotte sold out on more than one occasion.</font></p><p>[/quote]</p><p>The numbers are verifiable. The key is to present comprehensive numbers and direct people to the source. How people interpret them, of course, is driven by perception and personal values. </p><p>You took one number, i.e. 20 per cent of the people who ride light rail don't have an alternative, as an indicator that 80 per cent of the people who ride it have an alternative. Of course! But in the larger context, what I was trying to show is that only 11.65 per cent of the people in DART's service area use public transit. And that percentage is reduced by the number of people who don't have a viable alternative. So about nine per cent of the service area population use the system. This is a pretty good indicator of what percentage of the population, at best, might use expanded passenger rail (heavy and light) in Texas. If you develop passenger rail between Fort Worth and San Antonio, some people will use it. But could it covers its variable costs? How much subsidy would be required to support it? </p><p>I was in Charlotte last week. And I rode the light rail system. Having lived there from 1968 to 1972, I never thought that I would see the day that Charlotte would have a light rail system. I was pleased to see and ride it. It is neat. But like the DART light rail system, I suspect the per passenger subsidy is pretty steep. DART's light rail riders got an average subsidy of $3.66 per ride in 2006. This figure is verifiable, but many of the supporters of light rail don't like to reference it. </p><p>Amtrak's riders have increased each of the last four years. So have its costs. Amtrak still loses more than $1.3 billion a year. The long distance trains lose more than $500 million a year. And they are on course to lose even more this year. Again, supporters of Amtrak quote the increase in the number of riders and revenues without talking about the costs. </p><p>So where do I favor trains? They are a solution for high density corridors where the cost of building additional highway and airway capacity is prohibitive. And where the variable operating costs can be recovered. There are two areas in Texas where commuter rail could be a good option in the next decade. On is the Houston to Galveston corridor; the other is the Austin to San Antonio corridor. But for now there is no money for them. </p><p>A business person would invest in rail where there is probable demand and a reasonable probability of earning a return on his or her investment. A politician would pony up $2 billion a year for ten years and build it on the premise that they will come. Maybe! But there are not many business people who would bet the farm on that model. </p><p>Politicians don't have to worry about blowing the farm. They don't have a P&L Statement to worry about, unless they are in charge of an enterprise fund. In Texas they are seldom held accountable for their big blowouts. If they are turned out of office for their mistakes, they can get a nice job as a lobbyist. </p><p> </p>
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