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[quote user="oltmannd"] If the RAILROADS had been allowed to treat passenger trains as a business in the 1960's, I'm not sure there would be any intercity passenger trains left!  [/quote]Had Congress not agreed to save intercity passenger trains through the formation of Amtrak, they would have been laid to rest by the early 70s, with the possible exception of the Northeast Corridor trains.  And the billions of dollars that the government has spent on Amtrak's intercity passenger trains could have been spent on higher priorities.Americans had demonstrated since the 1950s that they preferred airplanes for long distance travel, automobiles for intermediate and short distance intercity travel, as well as for family vacations irrespective of the distance, and commuter rail or buses in major urban areas.  If the intercity passenger train, especially the long distance train, had been allowed to expire, only a few die hard rail buffs and a tiny percentage of the population that is unable or unwilling to fly, take the bus, or drive would have been inconvenienced.Subsequently, as we have seen in California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, as well as my automobile loving Texas, rail was chosen to overcome corridor transport congestion in a few markets.  Amtrak was not required to bring this about.  Other corridors are likely to see rail as a good solution to deal with congestion, although it is not always the best choice. The passenger train might be able to stand on it's own in high density, relatively short corridors, if governments stopped subsidizing all forms of transport including passenger rail.  A thorough discussion of transport subsidies is beyond the scope of this forum.  However, here is an example of how one element in the mix could level the playing field.   The tax on gasoline, which is a user fee, does not reflect its true cost, or the cost of the facilities required by motor vehicles, e.g. local and county roadways, traffic enforcement, etc.  If motorists were required to pay these costs at the pump, as opposed to paying them indirectly, the cost of operating a motor vehicle would go up significantly.    The cost of maintaining a naval presence in the Middle East to keep the oil sea lanes open or the costs associated with the air pollution created by vehicles is not imbedded in the price of gasoline.  Likewise, the cost of building local and county roads, which are paid for with property taxes and bond proceeds, or the cost of traffic law enforcement, is not attached to the price of gasoline.    If the aforementioned costs were rolled into the pump price of gasoline, it would probably be well north of $5.00 a gallon.  It would cause most Americans to opt for more fuel efficient vehicles and greater use of public transport including short haul trains Higher fuel costs might create an environment where it would be possible for train operators to recover their costs and earn a return for their shareholders.     People who drive alone or with a partner might opt for the train over a relatively short distance if the price points were reasonably close and the train offered a better value package.  However, it is doubtful that any operator could haul a family of four as cheaply as putting them in the family buggy.  Amtrak's mid-week fare from Los Angles to San Diego is $29.  Assuming that a private train operator had a cost structure similar to Amtrak's, it would need to increase the fare by 121 per cent to recover the attributed costs before interest and depreciation.  In addition, it would have to add a component to cover interest and depreciation as well as a return for the shareholders.  Readily available information does not show how much of Amtrak's interest and depreciation is driven by the Surfline.  Assuming the facilities were owned by the state and the operator is charged a fee for using them, the interest and depreciation pass through would probably be less than Amtrak's system rates, which are weighted toward the capital intensive Northeast Corridor.  So let's add another nine per cent for interest and depreciation for the Surfliner and 7.5 per cent for the return on equity.  This means the operator would have to charge $39.88 for a LAX to San Diego coach ticket.  The fully allocated cost to drive my 2004 Toyota Corolla, as an example, from LAX to San Diego would be approximately $56.25 if gasoline was $5.00 a gallon.  This assumes that all costs are variable, which they are over the long run.  Given the other elements that make up the value model, comfort, safety, etc., I would probably take the train if catching it was convenient, i.e. access to the station, parking, security, etc.   The cost for other motorists would vary greatly, depending on the price of their car, whether it was financed, how long the owner keeps it, how fast he or she drives, maintenance costs, insurance costs, etc.  If the government created a level playing field for all common carriers, as well as private transport, market driven passenger trains might be possible in some areas.  If not they should be junked.    Unfortunately, a rational national transport policy is not likely to emerge in this country.  It would hit too many emotional hot buttons.  So we will go on subsidizing most forms of transport and continue to have a sub-optimized system of moving people and goods.
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