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US Import Demand is Dropping Off a Cliff

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Saturday, June 11, 2022 11:24 AM

BaltACD
Have yet to see any print paper offering their subscriptions for OVER $2 a day.

Well we had one here brother. 

I should add the paper wasn't locally owned anymore, some out of state group bought it a while back and that's when the downhill slide began. 

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, June 11, 2022 11:27 AM

Euclid
But, only the retailer cannot pass the increase on to another link that won’t complain.  Instead, the retailers must pass the increase onto their customers.  And the customers do complain, and they reduce their consumption

 

I was thinking pretty much the same, but with a sightly different twist.  I believe there was substantial pent-up desire to raise prices before the pandemic. Increases that the supply chain knew would never be accepted  by rational consumers, especially where they had alternatives to choose from.

Enter the pandemic......finally, a chance to exploit irrational consumers thankful to find whatever object they need  just sitting on the shelf. A gift horse to vendors who had been seeking a workable excuse to raise prices for years.

 

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Posted by Euclid on Saturday, June 11, 2022 7:28 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
But, only the retailer cannot pass the increase on to another link that won’t complain.  Instead, the retailers must pass the increase onto their customers.  And the customers do complain, and they reduce their consumption

 

 

I was thinking pretty much the same, but with a sightly different twist.  I believe there was substantial pent-up desire to raise prices before the pandemic. Increases that the supply chain knew would never be accepted  by rational consumers, especially where they had alternatives to choose from.

Enter the pandemic......finally, a chance to exploit irrational consumers thankful to find whatever object they need  just sitting on the shelf. A gift horse to vendors who had been seeking a workable excuse to raise prices for years.

 

 

Some merchants might feel that way, but nobody needs an excuse to raise their price.  And there is always a pent up desire to raise the price.  But there is a natural built in price limiter that is always at work.  Anyone contemplating raising their price must consider that the move may increase their profit by selling at a higher price—or—it may lower their profit by driving away so many customers that even though the higher selling price results in a higher return per sale, the lower number of sales results in a lower profit overall. 
 
Correspondingly, there are times when the best way to increase profit is to lower your price.
 
But, when you add the circumstances of pandemic induced product shortages and merchants taking advantages of that type of emergency by raising prices of essential goods on a market that is captive due to the emergency; that can become a criminal act of gouging.
 
I expect the next move to solve the gas price problem will be to add price controls.  We have been told that the point of causing this fuel shortage was to usher in the grand transition to electric vehicles.  Price limits on gas will cause the further limiting of gas supply under the pressure of prices being artificially suppressed.  This will fit right into the scheme and accelerate the grand transition.  I am surprised they have not thought of that yet. 
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Posted by MidlandMike on Saturday, June 11, 2022 9:59 PM

Euclid
We have been told that the point of causing this fuel shortage was to usher in the grand transition to electric vehicles. ...

Demand for fuel fell off a cliff during the pandemic lockdowns.  Marginal production was shut down,  Drilling rigs were stacked idle.  Some old refinery capacity was retired.  When demand came roaring back, activest investors told the oil companies not to spend the money on capacity expansion, since they were making big profits on tight supplies.  Then the Russian oil embargo hit.  You could have picked this up in any newspaper.  Are you saying that the point of the pandemic was to cause a fuel shortage, or that Russia invaded Ukraine to usher in electric vehicles?

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, June 11, 2022 10:45 PM

Euclid
nobody needs an excuse to raise their price

I suspect you are interpreting the word "excuse" a bit more literally than I intended it.

But then you go on to demonstrate the conept of suppliers using the pandemic as an opportunity to game the system, so I don't believe we are that far apart in our thinking.

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Posted by Gramp on Saturday, June 11, 2022 10:55 PM

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Posted by Gramp on Saturday, June 11, 2022 11:03 PM

I wonder how the market for Amish buggies has been affected?

A Honda salesman I know told me it's now gonna take a year to get a new Odyssey.  Late model used vehicles are new car priced. 

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, June 12, 2022 8:20 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
nobody needs an excuse to raise their price

 

I suspect you are interpreting the word "excuse" a bit more literally than I intended it.

But then you go on to demonstrate the conept of suppliers using the pandemic as an opportunity to game the system, so I don't believe we are that far apart in our thinking.

 

Yes, the concept of gaming the system is real, but it is also illegal.  It also does not work if the opportunity for substitution exists in the supply, which it does with imports.  Gaming the system with gouging requires the customer to not have the opportunity to switch to an alternative product at a lower price or to do without the product.  Or in other words, it requires that no competition is possible.  That may also require collusion.  Both collusion and gouging are illegal.   
 
I believe our inflation is not caused by suppliers gaming the system.  I think the cause is inflating the money supply by the Fed “printing” too much money for massive public spending.  It was widely predicted to cause inflation.  It is also a classic primary cause of inflation.  Printing money is the classic free lunch.  But the “free lunch” of course is not really free.  It comes at the price of destroying wealth by lowering the value of money.  Often added to the price is a recession. 
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Posted by diningcar on Sunday, June 12, 2022 8:40 AM

Euclid
But the “free lunch” of course is not really free.  It comes at the price of destroying wealth by lowering the value of money.  Often added to the price is a recession.  Add Quote to your Post

You are correct Euclid. Thanks for clearly explaining it. 

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Posted by Convicted One on Sunday, June 12, 2022 11:07 AM

Euclid
Gaming the system with gouging requires the customer to not have the opportunity to switch to an alternative product at a lower price or to do without the product.  Or in other words, it requires that no competition is possible

 

Central to my assertion,.... the shortages induced by "the ordeal" throttled availability sufficient  that collusuion was not necessary.

You don't have to completely halt production of widgets to induce scarcity.   33%  reduction might induce frenzied demand.  How we get to 33% could be any number of ways during an "emergency", not all of them nefarious. Whistling

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Posted by Convicted One on Sunday, June 12, 2022 11:15 AM

So back to the central theme of this thread, if consumer demand tanks to the point that rail transport  is sent into decline. how with the railroads respond?

By shortening the monster trains  dividing communities for hours at a time that we've heard all the ruckus about, (shorter trains running on the same frequency)

Or waiting longer for sufficient traffic to accumulate, so that present "efficiencies" are maintained?  (same monster trains, just less frequent)

 

If the latter, I'd think that would give further advantage to trucks.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, June 12, 2022 11:34 AM

Convicted One
So back to the central theme of this thread, if consumer demand tanks to the point that rail transport  is sent into decline. how with the railroads respond?

By shortening the monster trains  dividing communities for hours at a time that we've heard all the ruckus about, (shorter trains running on the same frequency)

Or waiting longer for sufficient traffic to accumulate, so that present "efficiencies" are maintained?  (same monster trains, just less frequent) 

If the latter, I'd think that would give further advantage to trucks.

At present management of the carriers have only one answer to anything that happens in the world.  Fewer Bigger trains.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:26 PM

Convicted One

So back to the central theme of this thread, if consumer demand tanks to the point that rail transport  is sent into decline. how with the railroads respond?

By shortening the monster trains  dividing communities for hours at a time that we've heard all the ruckus about, (shorter trains running on the same frequency)

Or waiting longer for sufficient traffic to accumulate, so that present "efficiencies" are maintained?  (same monster trains, just less frequent)

 

If the latter, I'd think that would give further advantage to trucks.

 

I think the whole economy would just slow down; that is fewer trains and fewer trucks.  The extent to which they compete would not be much of a game changer compared to the same slow economy that they both must deal with.  

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:28 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
Gaming the system with gouging requires the customer to not have the opportunity to switch to an alternative product at a lower price or to do without the product.  Or in other words, it requires that no competition is possible

 

 

Central to my assertion,.... the shortages induced by "the ordeal" throttled availability sufficient  that collusuion was not necessary.

You don't have to completely halt production of widgets to induce scarcity.   33%  reduction might induce frenzied demand.  How we get to 33% could be any number of ways during an "emergency", not all of them nefarious. Whistling

 

Without collusion, any manufacturer would have to decide on their own to cut their production for the purpose of increasing the demand for their product.  Even if all manufacturers decided on their own to cut production for the purpose of raising their shared market demand, that would be tacit collusion, and that too is illegal.

But if just one manufacture cut production to increase demand, the others would move in and gobble up that extra demand created by that one manufacturer.

The one key to success would be for our country to raise revenue before spending it.  But the national solution is likely to be the opposite.  Just hand out a little “package” to everyone to tide them over as they lose their life savings.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:56 PM

Feature there has been a lot of collusion and 'market making' affecting the USA for the past decade or more.

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Posted by Gramp on Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:58 PM

I'm encouraged by San Fran's rejection of its DA. Maybe enough people are waking up to the collective illusion. Hope it doesn't take going back to the 1700's. 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Sunday, June 12, 2022 5:16 PM

Some of you don't seem to understand economics very well, tending towards conspiracy theories. 

There are three things that affect the price of everything:

1) Supply
2) Demand
3) All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Sunday, June 12, 2022 5:20 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Murphy Siding
They probably have a lot of longterm contracts they have to honor.

 

 

Hey Murph!  Nows the time to stock up on doors, while container rates are depressed. Clown

 

    Container rates coming down are now offset by higher production and transportation costs. Costs on most doors continue to climb about 5% per month, as production and delivery are spotty and demand is very strong.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Convicted One on Sunday, June 12, 2022 5:55 PM

Murphy Siding
All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

Exacto!!  If I'm the only one still manufacturing a particular widget in North America, and my 3 main competitors are all out sourcing from Asia......seeing the west coast ports tied in knots the way they were.......why  I HAD to raise my prices, to curb run-away demand.

It wasn't "gouging", it was a public service to assure those with the most acute need, still had product available.  On top of all that, expanding production to 3 shifts was not greed, it was purely a sense of patriotic duty.  Mischief

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, June 12, 2022 7:36 PM

Convicted One
 
Murphy Siding
All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal. 

Exacto!!  If I'm the only one still manufacturing a particular widget in North America, and my 3 main competitors are all out sourcing from Asia......seeing the west coast ports tied in knots the way they were.......why  I HAD to raise my prices, to curb run-away demand.

It wasn't "gouging", it was a public service to assure those with the most acute need, still had product available.  On top of all that, expanding production to 3 shifts was not greed, it was purely a sense of patriotic duty.  Mischief

Thus masterful double politician talk.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Sunday, June 12, 2022 8:33 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Murphy Siding
All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

 

Exacto!!  If I'm the only one still manufacturing a particular widget in North America, and my 3 main competitors are all out sourcing from Asia......seeing the west coast ports tied in knots the way they were.......why  I HAD to raise my prices, to curb run-away demand.

It wasn't "gouging", it was a public service to assure those with the most acute need, still had product available.  On top of all that, expanding production to 3 shifts was not greed, it was purely a sense of patriotic duty.  Mischief

 

Of the main type of doors that go in high-volume housing projects, there are 2 American manufacturers and 3 main foreign in ones in three different countries. You may spin that any way way you wish. Just because you don't understand economics, it doesn't mean that a big conspiracy is out to get everyone.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Convicted One on Sunday, June 12, 2022 9:58 PM

Murphy Siding
. Just because you don't understand economics, it doesn't mean that a big conspiracy is out to get everyone.

  Kisses

 

Sincerely Murph, I don't see where you get "comspiracy" from the specific example as I laid it out?

What I described was a single source exploiting a temporary monopoly, and then (as Balt correctly perceived) using double speak to excuse their "enthusiasm".

You might recall from back in the Hemphill era discussion in trains magazine about BNSF's "heavy handed"  negotiations with disgruntled (price) customers. He conceptualized BNSF's posture as having "market power".   And in essence that's the concept I was driving at here. (but in this case resulting from the snarl in the offshore sources supply line)

And using your  earlier mentioned 3rd factor, as the example I was fleshing out. If my use of parody offended you, it was not targeted at you,  but rather towards the target of said double speak.

No foul intended. Angel

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, June 13, 2022 4:36 PM

Murphy Siding

Some of you don't seem to understand economics very well, tending towards conspiracy theories. 

There are three things that affect the price of everything:

1) Supply
2) Demand
3) All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

It's a bit more complicated than that. You must also consider competitiveness and elasticity along with behavioral economic, a relatively more recent subfield.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, June 13, 2022 5:30 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
Murphy Siding

Some of you don't seem to understand economics very well, tending towards conspiracy theories. 

There are three things that affect the price of everything:

1) Supply
2) Demand
3) All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

 

 

It's a bit more complicated than that. You must also consider competitiveness and elasticity along with behavioral economic, a relatively more recent subfield.

 

I'll buy that. Now I need to go study up on behavioral economics.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by ROBIN LUETHE on Monday, June 13, 2022 7:20 PM

Demand is reduced, not falling off a cliff. Prices are not rising up to the moon. 8% year over year. And long term inflation, per those who are actaully investing huge amounts of money, are expected as about 3.5%.

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Posted by York1 on Monday, June 13, 2022 8:16 PM

ROBIN LUETHE

Demand is reduced, not falling off a cliff. Prices are not rising up to the moon. 8% year over year. And long term inflation, per those who are actaully investing huge amounts of money, are expected as about 3.5%.

 

 

8% can be considered as rising up to the moon.

In the late 1960s, inflation began to hit those levels, while many experts predicted it was not long-term.

Even though many thought it was short-term, it wasn't until the 1980's recession that inflation was put under control.

There are a lot of parallels in the way that long-term inflation began then, and what is going on now.

York1 John       

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Monday, June 13, 2022 11:46 PM

ROBIN LUETHE

Prices are not rising up to the moon. 8% year over year.

The 8% figure assumes a mix of spending (i.e. what percentage goes to food, shelter, gas, etc) that doesn't really apply to the average person. Inflation is probably double that figure. Some prices have been trending down due to the benefit of "Moore's Law".

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 4:10 PM

Murphy Siding

Some of you don't seem to understand economics very well, tending towards conspiracy theories. 

There are three things that affect the price of everything:

1) Supply
2) Demand
3) All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

If you laid all the economists in the world head to toe in a line, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

Appologies to whomever originated that saying. 

Jeff

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Posted by Backshop on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 8:13 PM

Economists are like meteorologists--they never get it right beforehand but are great at explaining after-the-fact why something happened.

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Posted by SALfan1 on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 8:50 PM

jeffhergert

 

 
Murphy Sliding 

Some of you don't seem to understand economics very well, tending towards conspiracy theories. 

There are three things that affect the price of everything:

1) Supply
2) Demand
3) All things done by those with a vested interest to manipulate #1 & #2 above, since the beginning of time, whether legal or illegal.

 

 

 

If you laid all the economists in the world head to toe in a line, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

Appologies to whomever originated that saying. 

Jeff

 

I think it was a president who threatened to start hiring only one-armed economists. When asked why, he said every time he asked one a question, they would answer and then say "On the other hand . . " and give another, different answer. 

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