Euclid I take it to mean that when fines being accrued for failure of truckers and railroads to move the containers, those fines will be accruing to the ocean carriers, and not to the truckers and railroads.
And suppose you are an ocean carrier that has accrued a significant amount in fines, how anxious will you be to bring in the next ship full of boxes?
Convicted One Euclid I take it to mean that when fines being accrued for failure of truckers and railroads to move the containers, those fines will be accruing to the ocean carriers, and not to the truckers and railroads. And suppose you are an ocean carrier that has accrued a significant amount in fines, how anxious will you be to bring in the next ship full of boxes?
Feature the fines would go to the Terminal - it is their land that is being used - used by the ocean carriers, used by the truckers and used by the railroads.
Fines to be paid by who 'contols' the movement of the box from the terminal - be that the ocean carriers, the truckers or the railroads.
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BaltACD charlie hebdo NittanyLion Curiously, they also noticed that the most efficient port operations in the world tended to be manual or hybrid, rather than automated It would appear that study is out of date, given the mess in LA/LB. The LA/LB issues go far, far beyond having the cranes automated or not. Even automated systems come to a stop when there are not places to put the boxes that they contain at the time.
charlie hebdo NittanyLion Curiously, they also noticed that the most efficient port operations in the world tended to be manual or hybrid, rather than automated It would appear that study is out of date, given the mess in LA/LB.
NittanyLion Curiously, they also noticed that the most efficient port operations in the world tended to be manual or hybrid, rather than automated
It would appear that study is out of date, given the mess in LA/LB.
The LA/LB issues go far, far beyond having the cranes automated or not. Even automated systems come to a stop when there are not places to put the boxes that they contain at the time.
The point of automation is to speed up the sorting so there is less need for space to store boxes. Incidentally, the automation being highlighted in China goes way beyond automating the cranes. Almost all action in the port complex is automated. It is all artificial intelligence special machines doing the job without head scratching.
However, it is too late to solve this current crisis with automation or even with new ports or improvements to existing ports. And there is no letup in sight. This is going to build until the bubble bursts. Printing money for people has set off runaway demand, and this has set off ruaway financial losses of the supply chain failure due to the over-demand. It cannot end well.
Euclid BaltACD charlie hebdo NittanyLion Curiously, they also noticed that the most efficient port operations in the world tended to be manual or hybrid, rather than automated It would appear that study is out of date, given the mess in LA/LB. The LA/LB issues go far, far beyond having the cranes automated or not. Even automated systems come to a stop when there are not places to put the boxes that they contain at the time. The point of automation is to speed up the sorting so there is less need for space to store boxes. Indicentally, the automation being highlighted in China goes way beyond automating the cranes. Almost all action in the port complex is automated. It is all artificial intelligence special machines doing the job without head scratching. However, it is too late to solve this current crisis with automation or even with new ports or improvements to existing ports. And there is no letup in sight. This is going to build until the bubble bursts. Printing money for people has set off runaway demand, and this has set off ruaway financial losses of the supply chain failure due to the over-demand. It cannot end well.
The point of automation is to speed up the sorting so there is less need for space to store boxes. Indicentally, the automation being highlighted in China goes way beyond automating the cranes. Almost all action in the port complex is automated. It is all artificial intelligence special machines doing the job without head scratching.
If you can't get the boxes OUT of the terminal - it doesn't make any difference how efficiently you handle the boxes IN the terminal. Terminals have a finite number (and ground area) of boxes that the terminal can hold and still operate. Getting boxes OUT is dependent on chassis availability and trucker availability as well as the footage of railcars available to load during a period of time.
One statistic I haven't heard from the Terminals - what are the percentages of loaded to empty boxes that are on the ground in the terminal at any point in time. Trucks and trains that enter the terminals routinely bring in boxes to be shipped, that have to be handled before outbound boxes can be loaded.
BaltACD If you can't get the boxes OUT of the terminal - it doesn't make any difference how efficiently you handle the boxes IN the terminal. Terminals have a finite number (and ground area) of boxes that the terminal can hold and still operate. Getting boxes OUT is dependent on chassis availability and trucker availability as well as the footage of railcars available to load during a period of time. One statistic I haven't heard from the Terminals - what are the percentages of loaded to empty boxes that are on the ground in the terminal at any point in time. Trucks and trains that enter the terminals routinely bring in boxes to be shipped, that have to be handled before outbound boxes can be loaded.
I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...
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Murphy Siding I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...
Euclid Murphy Siding I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like... I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge. But I am not sure which link(s) is weak. I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market. So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking. I suspect port is one weak link. I am not sure about rail and trucking. Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity?
Murphy Siding Euclid Murphy Siding I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like... I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge. But I am not sure which link(s) is weak. I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market. So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking. I suspect port is one weak link. I am not sure about rail and trucking. Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity? You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system?
You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system?
Demand will fall as prices rise due to the losses incurred by the supply chain failure.
These losses are likely to be so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China. If that happens, we are likely to see the mother of all bursting bubbles.
Another view
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERqikbfoLnw
EuclidAs I understand it, the LA port is a government owned and operated public sector business.
If the video is any indication, the port is government owned, but is operated by private entities.
The suggestion of an executive order would, at least temporarily, solve some portion of the red tape issue. The stacking of empty cans is one example. Creating storage space at suitable government facilities is another.
One problem with building new facilities is usually the NIBMY factor. Another is finding suitable locations with rail and road access that don't use up valuable land with what amounts to a parking lot.
And one must consider the eventuality of such facilities becoming unnecessary at some point in the not-to-distant future as the supply chain settle back to something resembling normal.
What's clear is "the way we've always done it" isn't doing the trick.
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The one fact is that there is a shortage of truck drivers. This was a forecasted problem well before 2020. One would think the inland port concept with a Ship->Rail->Road model would reduce the amount of time a manned truck would spend on the interstate.
Automation will continue to happen maybe more accelerated now.
Here is an overview of the LA port organization:
https://www.portoflosangeles.org/about/port-101
It does not sound like it is partly private sector, but I am not sure what the 200 leaseholders do.
BaltACDFeature the fines would go to the Terminal - it is their land that is being used - used by the ocean carriers, used by the truckers and used by the railroads. Fines to be paid by who 'contols' the movement of the box from the terminal - be that the ocean carriers, the truckers or the railroads.
Link stated "After that, ocean carriers will be charged". So, if that's the case the only means of control at their disposal would be to withhold containers....And I'm just wondering what the impact of such withholding would have on the shortages we already suffer.
Euclid Murphy Siding Euclid Murphy Siding I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like... I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge. But I am not sure which link(s) is weak. I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market. So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking. I suspect port is one weak link. I am not sure about rail and trucking. Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity? You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system? A monkey wrench could have been inserted, but the only monkey wrench I have heard about is the demand surge caused by easy money from free stimulus and pent up demand after coming out of lockdown. Fundamentally, the free stimulus would increase everyone's buying power, and that fundamentally causes an increase in demand. Demand will fall as prices rise due to the losses incurred by the supply chain failure. These losses are likely to be so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China. If that happens, we are likely to see the mother of all bursting bubbles.
A monkey wrench could have been inserted, but the only monkey wrench I have heard about is the demand surge caused by easy money from free stimulus and pent up demand after coming out of lockdown. Fundamentally, the free stimulus would increase everyone's buying power, and that fundamentally causes an increase in demand.
It is not wishful thinging at all. I could care less weather jobs come back to this country. Besides, even if the dysfunctional supply chain ends up making China's manufacturing economically unviable for us, I am not optimistic that our country is headed in a direction that can pick up the jobs we lost to China. This is a different era.
As to your comment here:
Murphy Siding I disagree with you that "Demand will fall as prices rise...so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China". Logic suggests that rising prices would push consumers into seeking the lowest prices, which for many items would still be made overseas in places like China. To suggest otherwise kind sounds like just wishful thinking.
I am not sure what you disagree with me about here. I would say, yes, if customers can find successful substitution with lower prices than China, demand will continue, and may not fall at all. But even with those Chinese manufacturing alternatives, their prices will rise as customers flock to them and raise the demand for those alternatives. And-- then too, they have the same over-the-ocean supply chain and problems with our port-rail-truck infrastructure. That is what is driving up prices as the supply chain is choked by high demand.
As to online references to high demand driving the supply chain problems, I have seen many such references including several that blame our consumers for wanting to many things. So I am surprised that you can't find any references to a demand spike. I will take a look now.
There are plenty of countries that will make up the slack. I'm betting that in many cases, the only thing that will change will be the place of manufacture. Just as many companies in the US have moved into lower cost areas, a Chinese manufacturer could easily just move their factory to someplace other than "made in China."
The question is when will the prices on goods produced overseas rise to the point that companies will decide that they can produce the item in the US, sell it for the same price, and still make money.
Overmod charlie hebdo Data citation to support that? I think we should stick to discussing reasons not to go to twin 40s or 48s on underframes (in the specific context of this thread, to ameliorate port-congestion and other supply-chain delay issues) and not get into a wrangle about the degree to which motorists cause trouble with double-bottom rigs. Most of what I've seen in 40+ years of studying ITA is that automobile motorists do cause a large percentage of accidents with large trucks and trained drivers. The 'ringer' is that fewer and fewer drivers seem to be experienced or even well-trained, and working conditions less and less satisfactory. Add to that the (much!) greater skill needed to run 48s on regular pool underframes. The extent to which auto traffic makes double-container drayage more difficult or dangerous would be interesting to discuss, but it's something of a distraction to bring it up, and definitely a distraction when it invokes a call for references or fact-checking. I think a better line of discussion is how to run doubles most effectively to accomplish best 'unsticking' of logistics, or to enhance safety operating them as needed.
charlie hebdo Data citation to support that?
I think we should stick to discussing reasons not to go to twin 40s or 48s on underframes (in the specific context of this thread, to ameliorate port-congestion and other supply-chain delay issues) and not get into a wrangle about the degree to which motorists cause trouble with double-bottom rigs.
Most of what I've seen in 40+ years of studying ITA is that automobile motorists do cause a large percentage of accidents with large trucks and trained drivers. The 'ringer' is that fewer and fewer drivers seem to be experienced or even well-trained, and working conditions less and less satisfactory. Add to that the (much!) greater skill needed to run 48s on regular pool underframes.
The extent to which auto traffic makes double-container drayage more difficult or dangerous would be interesting to discuss, but it's something of a distraction to bring it up, and definitely a distraction when it invokes a call for references or fact-checking. I think a better line of discussion is how to run doubles most effectively to accomplish best 'unsticking' of logistics, or to enhance safety operating them as needed.
I agree that it would be better to stick with the several topics on this thread. However, when someone asserts something important to safety or efficiency as fact without any evidence, I think it should be called for.
charlie hebdowhen someone asserts something important to safety or efficiency as fact without any evidence, I think it should be called for.
Are not most Japanese cars now made in the states because of competition?
Electroliner 1935Are not most Japanese cars now made in the states because of competition?
Euclid What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry. This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market. They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us.
Murphy Siding Euclid What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry. This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market. They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us. I know your fixation on China is one of your favorite subjects, but this post doesn't make a lick of sense. "....to save their manufacturing and export industry..." You realize that China is not the only country that exports goods to the USA, don't you?
I know your fixation on China is one of your favorite subjects, but this post doesn't make a lick of sense. "....to save their manufacturing and export industry..." You realize that China is not the only country that exports goods to the USA, don't you?
See a lot of stuff from Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, S.Korea and other Asian countries in addition to China.
SALfan1 Some of our packages already look like they were dropped out of high-flying aircraft already. Don't make it any worse!
Some of our packages already look like they were dropped out of high-flying aircraft already. Don't make it any worse!
Reminds me of an incident where the package accdentally droped out of the aircraft contained a Tasmanian Devil...
I know there are people coming up with solid ideas such as hiring more workers, renting more storage land, forcing the railroads to run longer trains, getting a variance to stack containers eight high instead of the legal limit of two high. The problem is that the beauracracy will have to hold thousands of conferences, meetings, hearings, negotiations, write contracts, spend money, go to court, issue permits, and a million other details to make these changes happen. It could all take years, and we need a solution right now.
Erik_Mag SALfan1 Some of our packages already look like they were dropped out of high-flying aircraft already. Don't make it any worse! Reminds me of an incident where the package accidentally dropped out of the aircraft contained a Tasmanian Devil...
Reminds me of an incident where the package accidentally dropped out of the aircraft contained a Tasmanian Devil...
Ordered barbeque grill, received Tasmanian devil. One star, would not order again.
EuclidChina imports more into our country than any other country does, so I use them to make my point.
Was this the thread that had the idea of lifting railroad cars between tracks? See the Penn Central boxcar-move thread in Steam & Preservation for a potential alternative... just not quite the way you see it done!
There they lift one of the trucks by the two upper webs of the sideframe truss, balanced across the bolster.
Lifting a car this way at the four 'support points' might be the best way -- analogous to lifting a van trailer by its bogie. You would need a proper spreader with angled pads to engage the width of the sideframe. It would need to pull 'straight up' on the sideframe, similar to the force the bearing boxes exert a bit further out, and this implies vertical arms and lateral top spreaders similar to some of the '60s piggybacking equipment. In the 'old days' this would require careful inspection at all eight points, meaning a walk to both sides of the car, but cameras and sensor fusion can do most of what's necessary... safety blocking or chaining is another matter!
Still not sure you could get this as fully automated as it would have to be to produce a proper mix of cost reduction and necessary safety and risk avoidance to establish it as an alternative to, say, autonomous flat switching with electrical routing control.
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