Midwest containers via Florida

[Electroliner 1935]

If you guys were younger, I would say: "CHILDREN, CHILDREN, PLEASE BEHAVE NICELY!" but as you are not children, I will just say I'm hoping you will moderate yourselfs and act more responsibly. Not claiming each other to be wrong or misinformed or anything else that applies in repeated baack and forth diatibes. As Rodney King said. "Can't we just get along!"

[Euclid]

Murphy Siding

 

 

Euclid

 

If they over-feed the supply chain, it breaks down and costs a lot of money to fix.  If the breakdown persists, it will degrade the supply chain to the point where it eats up all the profit of the importers.  At the same time, our consumers will bear part of the excess supply chain costs, thus raising their cost of imported goods.  So they will buy less, and further lower the return to importers. 

 

 

 

 

 

Honestly, you need to go read some books. If consumers buy less, the supply chain is not as busy and probelem of too much stuff in the supply train goes away. It's called supply & demand. Google it.

 

 

Well yes, on the face of it, that solves the supply chain problem.  But it does so in a reckless and destructive way.  You have an inadequate supply chain that has to be run into the ground to try to keep up. 

 

So the cost of its destruction is partly borne by the consumers who are thus driven away by price increases on their products that have nothing to do with making a better product. Instead, inflated product cost is being driven by insisting on running a dilapidated supply chain into the ground.  

 

In the meantime, the market customers are being soured by what they perceive as runaway costs on their favorite products.  Eventually you don’t have a market or a supplier, but the good news is that the supply chain is working.

[charlie hebdo]

Overmod

And you expect me to approve your comprehension of economics based on this sentence? 

Intro to Econ or Micro Econ seem to be needed on here.  So much of the thread is just plain silly. But the post suggesting the primary problem is lack of trucking capacity seems correct.

[Murphy Siding]

Euclid

 

If they over-feed the supply chain, it breaks down and costs a lot of money to fix.  If the breakdown persists, it will degrade the supply chain to the point where it eats up all the profit of the importers.  At the same time, our consumers will bear part of the excess supply chain costs, thus raising their cost of imported goods.  So they will buy less, and further lower the return to importers. 

 

 

Honestly, you need to go read some books. If consumers buy less, the supply chain is not as busy and probelem of too much stuff in the supply train goes away. It's called supply & demand. Google it.

[Euclid]

Overmod

 

 

Euclid

China imports more into our country than any other country does, so I use them to make my point.

 

And you expect me to approve your comprehension of economics based on this sentence? 

Not when you take the sentence completely out of its orginal context.  The point of my China post is that it makes no difference which countries are importing manufactured goods into our country.  That is a distraction.  The only point is the capacity of the supply chain which does not belong to any one country, but is fed by several companies.  However, all importers depend on the supply chain to do its job. 

 

If they over-feed the supply chain, it breaks down and costs a lot of money to fix.  If the breakdown persists, it will degrade the supply chain to the point where it eats up all the profit of the importers.  At the same time, our consumers will bear part of the excess supply chain costs, thus raising their cost of imported goods.  So they will buy less, and further lower the return to importers. 

 

All the importer countries will share the supply chain cost to various extents, so they all have an interest in preventing the supply chain breakdown.  There are only two ways to prevent it. 

 

One is to give it more capacity, and the other is to stop over-feeding it.  There is not enough time to add supply chain capacity, so the only remedy is to stop over-feeding the supply chain.  That starts by slowing or suspending the supply chain until it reaches a point of sustainability, and then fine tuning it to get as much productivity out of it as possible without crashing it. 

[Overmod]

Euclid

China imports more into our country than any other country does, so I use them to make my point.

And you expect me to approve your comprehension of economics based on this sentence? 

Was this the thread that had the idea of lifting railroad cars between tracks?  See the Penn Central boxcar-move thread in Steam & Preservation for a potential alternative... just not quite the way you see it done!

There they lift one of the trucks by the two upper webs of the sideframe truss, balanced across the bolster.

Lifting a car this way at the four 'support points' might be the best way -- analogous to lifting a van trailer by its bogie.  You would need a proper spreader with angled pads to engage the width of the sideframe.  It would need to pull 'straight up' on the sideframe, similar to the force the bearing boxes exert a bit further out, and this implies vertical arms and lateral top spreaders similar to some of the '60s piggybacking equipment.  In the 'old days' this would require careful inspection at all eight points, meaning a walk to both sides of the car, but cameras and sensor fusion can do most of what's necessary... safety blocking or chaining is another matter!

Still not sure you could get this as fully automated as it would have to be to produce a proper mix of cost reduction and necessary safety and risk avoidance to establish it as an alternative to, say, autonomous flat switching with electrical routing control.

[Murphy Siding]

Erik_Mag

 

SALfan1

Some of our packages already look like they were dropped out of high-flying aircraft already.  Don't make it any worse!

 

 

 

Reminds me of an incident where the package accidentally dropped out of the aircraft contained a Tasmanian Devil...

 

Ordered barbeque grill, received Tasmanian devil. One star, would not order again.

 

[Euclid]

Murphy Siding

 

 

Euclid

What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry.  This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market.  They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us. 

 

 

 

 

I know your fixation on China is one of your favorite subjects, but this post doesn't make a lick of sense. "....to save their manufacturing and export industry..." You realize that China is not the only country that exports goods to the USA, don't you?

 

 

 

Yes I realize that China is not the only overseas importer into this country, but what does it have to do with my point?  China imports more into our country than any other country does, so I use them to make my point.  How do you think this supply chain crisis is going to play out? 

 

I see it first and foremost as a big problem for us and a much larger problem for China.  I do not think we are going to fix the supply chain problem in time to prevent runaway supply chain costs from making Chinese imports unprofitable.  The gridlock seems to be increasing exponentially as containers continue to pour in.

 

The only remedy I see is to slow this down and let it adjust to sustainability in supply chain handling of the import traffic.  Maybe even bring it to a complete stop in order to rearrange it and get the supply chain under control.  Then resume at a sustainable rate. 

 

I think that if China offered that solution, the world would regard it as being reasonable and would believe it would solve the problem.  It need not be a hostile action.  For that matter, we could even take action and decide to temporarily suspend trade with China for the same reason, which is to let the supply chain adjust.  

 

The alternative is to bankrupt the supply chain by attempting to force it to work against impossible gridlock.   And without a supply chain, imports from China will be priced out of our market. 

 

I know there are people coming up with solid ideas such as hiring more workers, renting more storage land, forcing the railroads to run longer trains, getting a variance to stack containers eight high instead of the legal limit of two high.  The problem is that the beauracracy will have to hold thousands of conferences, meetings, hearings, negotiations, write contracts, spend money, go to court, issue permits, and a million other details to make these changes happen.  It could all take years, and we need a solution right now. 

[Erik_Mag]

SALfan1

Some of our packages already look like they were dropped out of high-flying aircraft already.  Don't make it any worse!

Reminds me of an incident where the package accdentally droped out of the aircraft contained a Tasmanian Devil...

[BaltACD]

Murphy Siding

 

Euclid

What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry.  This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market.  They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us.  

I know your fixation on China is one of your favorite subjects, but this post doesn't make a lick of sense. "....to save their manufacturing and export industry..." You realize that China is not the only country that exports goods to the USA, don't you?

See a lot of stuff from Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, S.Korea and other Asian countries in addition to China.

[Murphy Siding]

Euclid

What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry.  This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market.  They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us. 

 

I know your fixation on China is one of your favorite subjects, but this post doesn't make a lick of sense. "....to save their manufacturing and export industry..." You realize that China is not the only country that exports goods to the USA, don't you?

[Euclid]

What the Chinese might do is stop selling and shipping manufactured goods to the U.S. in order to save their manufacturing and export industry.  This would be their way of stopping a runaway shipping cost spiral from pricing their goods out of our market.  They would be making a pause to give us time to clear our port backlog and at the same time, to reduce the accruing losses in their supply chain which are driving up the cost of their exports to us. 

[Overmod]

Electroliner 1935

Are not most Japanese cars now made in the states because of competition?

That's never been a major claim I've heard.  I'd have to go back and gather actual data, but things like shipping cost, clustering suppliers for modern QC (often from Asian primary supply companies like Nippondenso in Arkansas), tremendous local subsidies for 'the promise of jobs' -- and yes, better transportation logistics -- are reasons I've seen for the various 'foreign' companies building American plants, some of which I believe supply worldwide demand for the lines or products manufactured there.

[Electroliner 1935]

Are not most Japanese cars now made in the states because of competition?

[Overmod]

charlie hebdo

when someone asserts something important to safety or efficiency as fact without any evidence, I think it should be called for.

As I hope to see documented.  Maybe not here in this particular thread, but somewhere in a proper context, as I think it's important in promoting 'rail alternatives'...

[Overmod]

charlie hebdo

when someone asserts something important to safety or efficiency as fact without any evidence, I think it should be called for.

As I hope to see documented.

[charlie hebdo]

Overmod

 

 

charlie hebdo

Data citation  to support that?

 

 

I think we should stick to discussing reasons not to go to twin 40s or 48s on underframes (in the specific context of this thread, to ameliorate port-congestion and other supply-chain delay issues) and not get into a wrangle about the degree to which motorists cause trouble with double-bottom rigs.

 

Most of what I've seen in 40+ years of studying ITA is that automobile motorists do cause a large percentage of accidents with large trucks and trained drivers.  The 'ringer' is that fewer and fewer drivers seem to be experienced or even well-trained, and working conditions less and less satisfactory.  Add to that the (much!) greater skill needed to run 48s on regular pool underframes.

The extent to which auto traffic makes double-container drayage more difficult or dangerous would be interesting to discuss, but it's something of a distraction to bring it up, and definitely a distraction when it invokes a call for references or fact-checking.  I think a better line of discussion is how to run doubles most effectively to accomplish best 'unsticking' of logistics, or to enhance safety operating them as needed.

 

I agree that it would be better to stick with the several topics on this thread. However, when someone asserts something important to safety or efficiency as fact without any evidence, I think it should be called for.

[tree68]

Murphy Siding

      I disagree with you that "Demand will fall as prices rise...so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China". Logic suggests that rising prices would push consumers into seeking the lowest prices, which for many items would still be made overseas in places like China. To suggest otherwise kind sounds like just wishful thinking.

There are plenty of countries that will make up the slack.  I'm betting that in many cases, the only thing that will change will be the place of manufacture.  Just as many companies in the US have moved into lower cost areas, a Chinese manufacturer could easily just move their factory to someplace other than "made in China."

The question is when will the prices on goods produced overseas rise to the point that companies will decide that they can produce the item in the US, sell it for the same price, and still make money.

[Euclid]

It is not wishful thinging at all.  I could care less weather jobs come back to this country.  Besides, even if the dysfunctional supply chain ends up making China's manufacturing economically unviable for us, I am not optimistic that our country is headed in a direction that can pick up the jobs we lost to China.  This is a different era.  

As to your comment here:

Murphy Siding

      I disagree with you that "Demand will fall as prices rise...so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China". Logic suggests that rising prices would push consumers into seeking the lowest prices, which for many items would still be made overseas in places like China. To suggest otherwise kind sounds like just wishful thinking.

 

I am not sure what you disagree with me about here.  I would say, yes, if customers can find successful substitution with lower prices than China, demand will continue, and may not fall at all.  But even with those Chinese manufacturing alternatives, their prices will rise as customers flock to them and raise the demand for those alternatives.  And-- then too, they have the same over-the-ocean supply chain and problems with our port-rail-truck infrastructure.  That is what is driving up prices as the supply chain is choked by high demand.

As to online references to high demand driving the supply chain problems, I have seen many such references including several that blame our consumers for wanting to many things.  So I am surprised that you can't find any references to a demand spike.  I will take a look now.  

 

[Murphy Siding]

Euclid

 

Murphy Siding

 

 

Euclid

 

Murphy Siding

I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...

 

 

 

 

I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge.  But I am not sure which link(s) is weak.  I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market.  So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking.  I suspect port is one weak link.  I am not sure about rail and trucking. 

 

Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity?

 

 

 

 

You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system?

 

 

 

 

 

A monkey wrench could have been inserted, but the only monkey wrench I have heard about is the demand surge caused by easy money from free stimulus and pent up demand after coming out of lockdown.  Fundamentally, the free stimulus would increase everyone's buying power, and that fundamentally causes an increase in demand.  

 

Demand will fall as prices rise due to the losses incurred by the supply chain failure.  

These losses are likely to be so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China.  If that happens, we are likely to see the mother of all bursting bubbles.  

 

I did some searching around on the internet trying to find more info about this big ol' demand surge and came up empty.

      I disagree with you that "Demand will fall as prices rise...so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China". Logic suggests that rising prices would push consumers into seeking the lowest prices, which for many items would still be made overseas in places like China. To suggest otherwise kind sounds like just wishful thinking.

[Convicted One]

BaltACD

Feature the fines would go to the Terminal - it is their land that is being used - used by the ocean carriers, used by the truckers and used by the railroads. Fines to be paid by who 'contols' the movement of the box from the terminal - be that the ocean carriers, the truckers or the railroads.

 

Link stated  "After that, ocean carriers will be charged". So, if that's the case the only means of control at their disposal would be to withhold containers....And I'm just wondering what the impact of such withholding would have on the shortages we already suffer.

[Euclid]

Here is an overview of the LA port organization:

https://www.portoflosangeles.org/about/port-101

 

It does not sound like it is partly private sector, but I am not sure what the 200 leaseholders do.

[rdamon]

The one fact is that there is a shortage of truck drivers.  This was a forecasted problem well before 2020.  One would think the inland port concept with a Ship->Rail->Road model  would reduce the amount of time a manned truck would spend on the interstate.

Automation will continue to happen maybe more accelerated now.

 

[tree68]

Euclid

As I understand it, the LA port is a government owned and operated public sector business.

If the video is any indication, the port is government owned, but is operated by private entities.

The suggestion of an executive order would, at least temporarily, solve some portion of the red tape issue.  The stacking of empty cans is one example.  Creating storage space at suitable government facilities is another.

One problem with building new facilities is usually the NIBMY factor.  Another is finding suitable locations with rail and road access that don't use up valuable land with what amounts to a parking lot.

And one must consider the eventuality of such facilities becoming unnecessary at some point in the not-to-distant future as the supply chain settle back to something resembling normal.

What's clear is "the way we've always done it" isn't doing the trick.

[Euclid]

As I understand it, the LA port is a government owned and operated public sector business.  I can imagine the red tape it must require to address sudden emergencies such as traffic surges.  If it is government owned and operated, why can’t the government fix the problem?  With the way we are rebuilding infrastructure, why are we not working on this dramatically inadequate infrastructure?

[BaltACD]

Another view

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERqikbfoLnw

 

[Euclid]

Murphy Siding

 

 

Euclid

 

Murphy Siding

I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...

 

 

 

 

I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge.  But I am not sure which link(s) is weak.  I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market.  So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking.  I suspect port is one weak link.  I am not sure about rail and trucking. 

 

Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity?

 

 

 

 

You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system?

 

 

A monkey wrench could have been inserted, but the only monkey wrench I have heard about is the demand surge caused by easy money from free stimulus and pent up demand after coming out of lockdown.  Fundamentally, the free stimulus would increase everyone's buying power, and that fundamentally causes an increase in demand.  

Demand will fall as prices rise due to the losses incurred by the supply chain failure.  

These losses are likely to be so great that consumers will reach a point where they refuse to buy anything made in China.  If that happens, we are likely to see the mother of all bursting bubbles.  

[Murphy Siding]

Euclid

 

Murphy Siding

I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...

 

 

 

 

I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge.  But I am not sure which link(s) is weak.  I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market.  So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking.  I suspect port is one weak link.  I am not sure about rail and trucking. 

 

Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity?

 

You keep mentioning demand surge. Is that really a thing? Or is this just normal demand levels, but things got backed up when a monkey wrench was inserted into the system?

[Euclid]

Murphy Siding

I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...

 

I think you are right about there being a weak link that has been exposed by the recent product demand surge.  But I am not sure which link(s) is weak.  I don’t think it is the links of Chinese production, order fulfillment, or the overseas shipping to our market.  So that leaves the links of port, rail, and trucking.  I suspect port is one weak link.  I am not sure about rail and trucking. 

 

Have railroads released statements saying that they are overwhelmed and can’t keep up because they lack capacity?

[Murphy Siding]

I wonder...It seems like the shippers kept making container ships bigger and bigger. The shipping ports must have expanded or improved their infrastructure to accommodate them. They must have assumed that the receiving ports would expand and improve their infrastructure as well? Did that happen, or is there a weak link in the supply chain that only becomes an issue if something big happens, like...