BaltACD Murphy Siding I spoke with another brilliant guy that had all the answers yesterday. He was the driver of a crew van that brought a switchman to switch our car in. He said this port thing is going to go away pretty soon- as soon as harvest season is over. He said that they ship all the corn from the midwest to China in those containers. Once all the containers get back to China, everything is fixed. He didn't mention his momma, or boxes of chocolates. Was the crew van driver Warren Buffet? If it was Warren I would believe him, otherwise the advice is worth what you paid for it.
Murphy Siding I spoke with another brilliant guy that had all the answers yesterday. He was the driver of a crew van that brought a switchman to switch our car in. He said this port thing is going to go away pretty soon- as soon as harvest season is over. He said that they ship all the corn from the midwest to China in those containers. Once all the containers get back to China, everything is fixed. He didn't mention his momma, or boxes of chocolates.
Was the crew van driver Warren Buffet? If it was Warren I would believe him, otherwise the advice is worth what you paid for it.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Murphy SidingWould you want to be the car maker who didn't advertise because you couldn't produce enough cars,
Would I want to be a manufacturer spending tens of millions of dollars to advertise cars that I cannot manufacture?
But, more particularly, IF I cannot manufacture enough cars to meet demand, isn't advertising superfluous?
The stories that I'm seeing is that used cars only 1 or two years old are reselling for more than they originally listed for. If demand is that piqued...where is the tangible benefit of advertising? Keeping your brand in front of the consumer?
Convicted One Would I want to be a manufacturer spending tens of millions of dollars to advertise cars that I cannot manufacture?
Murphy Siding Backshop Those suggesting that this port or that port can bail out LA/LB haven't seen how large that port is, compared to other NA ports. Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are all that seem to make the news. Are the other west coast ports in the same predicament?
Backshop Those suggesting that this port or that port can bail out LA/LB haven't seen how large that port is, compared to other NA ports.
Those suggesting that this port or that port can bail out LA/LB haven't seen how large that port is, compared to other NA ports.
Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are all that seem to make the news. Are the other west coast ports in the same predicament?
10 Largest Ports in the United States - Largest.org
And none of those ads talked about $1000's of dollars off or 'employee pricing'.
They are selling cars at or above MSRP and only producing limited models loaded with features.
They will be fine ..
Backshop Murphy Siding Backshop Those suggesting that this port or that port can bail out LA/LB haven't seen how large that port is, compared to other NA ports. Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are all that seem to make the news. Are the other west coast ports in the same predicament? I'm sure they are having problems, just they aren't as major or as visible. I was commenting on the fact that even several other ports couldn't take up a meaningful volume of LA/LB's backup. Here are the top 10 ports in the US. Look who #1 and 2 are, and how far the volume drop is to the next Pacific port. 10 Largest Ports in the United States - Largest.org
I'm sure they are having problems, just they aren't as major or as visible. I was commenting on the fact that even several other ports couldn't take up a meaningful volume of LA/LB's backup. Here are the top 10 ports in the US. Look who #1 and 2 are, and how far the volume drop is to the next Pacific port.
Backshop Corporations plan years into the future.
And what do you expect they plan to do with all the "built short" inventory of 2021 models they have stacked up in lots, now that the 2022 models are in dire need of the available chips?
The 2021 production of our local GM plant has been accumulating in the lots of vacant industrial properties, to sizable proportions.
Personally, I suspect there is more to the story than we are being told. Yes, I suspect the chip shortage is genuine. But I also think that demand has been softer than they care to admit, and instead of admitting they've been building vehicles no one wants, they've been scapegoating the pandemic, while hoping the ads might rekindle the absent demand.
Convicted One Would I want to be a manufacturer spending tens of millions of dollars to advertise cars that I cannot manufacture? But, more particularly, IF I cannot manufacture enough cars to meet demand, isn't advertising superfluous?
The ports of Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle have a combined capacity of 3,855,761 TEU's. That is just a little less than the port of Long Beach. That is equivelent to 96,394 40 foot containers. How many containers do those ships hold?
How close to their total capacity are they?
caldreamerThe ports of Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle have a combined capacity of 3,855,761 TEU's. That is just a little less than the port of Long Beach. That is equivelent to 96,394 40 foot containers. How many containers do those ships hold?
Among the large vessels 18K - 20K TEU's is a common capacity. So 10 of the large container vessels could exceed your 96,394 40 foot containers.
Wasn't one of the last reports that in excess of 70 vessels were waiting their turn to dock.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
caldreamer The ports of Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle have a combined capacity of 3,855,761 TEU's. That is just a little less than the port of Long Beach. That is equivelent to 96,394 40 foot containers. How many containers do those ships hold?
Euclid MidlandMike Euclid The real crisis looming is hyperinflation, and the blame will fall squarely on the hyper spending that we all will pay for. Those in charge of the spending do not want to be blamed for the hyperinflation; and simply denying it is not working. So, it is telling that we should suddenly be served up a new crisis to take our minds off the 600-pound gorilla of hyperinflation. And so conveniently, this new crisis, named "Supply Chain," is said to be our fault for buying too much, and also a sign of how successful our economic recovery is; and thus a reason why we should feel good about Supply Chain Crisis. Hyperinflation is defined as a 1000% inflation in a year, which is more than a couple orders of magnatude above what we are experiencing. I said hyperinflation is looming. It is not here now. It is still preventable until we lock in the final massive spending that has been proposed.
MidlandMike Euclid The real crisis looming is hyperinflation, and the blame will fall squarely on the hyper spending that we all will pay for. Those in charge of the spending do not want to be blamed for the hyperinflation; and simply denying it is not working. So, it is telling that we should suddenly be served up a new crisis to take our minds off the 600-pound gorilla of hyperinflation. And so conveniently, this new crisis, named "Supply Chain," is said to be our fault for buying too much, and also a sign of how successful our economic recovery is; and thus a reason why we should feel good about Supply Chain Crisis. Hyperinflation is defined as a 1000% inflation in a year, which is more than a couple orders of magnatude above what we are experiencing.
Euclid The real crisis looming is hyperinflation, and the blame will fall squarely on the hyper spending that we all will pay for. Those in charge of the spending do not want to be blamed for the hyperinflation; and simply denying it is not working. So, it is telling that we should suddenly be served up a new crisis to take our minds off the 600-pound gorilla of hyperinflation. And so conveniently, this new crisis, named "Supply Chain," is said to be our fault for buying too much, and also a sign of how successful our economic recovery is; and thus a reason why we should feel good about Supply Chain Crisis.
The real crisis looming is hyperinflation, and the blame will fall squarely on the hyper spending that we all will pay for. Those in charge of the spending do not want to be blamed for the hyperinflation; and simply denying it is not working.
So, it is telling that we should suddenly be served up a new crisis to take our minds off the 600-pound gorilla of hyperinflation. And so conveniently, this new crisis, named "Supply Chain," is said to be our fault for buying too much, and also a sign of how successful our economic recovery is; and thus a reason why we should feel good about Supply Chain Crisis.
Hyperinflation is defined as a 1000% inflation in a year, which is more than a couple orders of magnatude above what we are experiencing.
I said hyperinflation is looming. It is not here now. It is still preventable until we lock in the final massive spending that has been proposed.
The present estimate of the two big spending bills is about $3 trillion spread over about 5 years ($600 billion/year) equates to about 3% of annual GDP. How would that cause 1000% hyperinflation? The previous two pandemic stimulus bills were about the same amount (spread over less than 2 years) and they caused 5% inflation so far.
Backshop The shortage of chips won't last forever.
The shortage of chips won't last forever.
There are a LOT of chokepoints in chip production. One example is that most of the substrates for the more complicated chips are made by one company, and that company is loathe to spand money on capacity that may become idle in a couple of years.
It's not just the I.C.'s that are in short supply, surface mount capacitors have lead times of a year for some values/voltage ratings.
Another problem they are having and it's starting to get some coverage is just how screwed up the work rules are for the longshoreman out in California. These guys literally get 8 hours of pay for less than 3 hours of work a day. They get 2 hours of paid breaks and lunch a day no more than 3 hours in the cranes a day and if they work a minute more than their shift it's time and a half overtime minimum of 1 hour and double rate for weekends. They also can get any management fired that tries to make them work faster than they want and only they are allowed to move the containers around the harbor unless they are on a chassis. Now there is one dock in Long Beach harbor that is setup with automated cranes for loading the chassis. They do on a normal day 5 times the moves of the manned cranes.
https://news.yahoo.com/lazy-crane-operators-making-250-200100567.html
LONG BEACH, California — Crane operators who belong to a powerful union and earn up to $250,000 a year transferring containers from ships to trucks are worseni.. .
MidlandMike The previous two pandemic stimulus bills were about the same amount (spread over less than 2 years) and they caused 5% inflation so far.
The previous two pandemic stimulus bills were about the same amount (spread over less than 2 years) and they caused 5% inflation so far.
We may be in the beginning of an inflatioary spiral, prices for many items have gone up more than 5%. OTOH, 1000% inflation over a short period of time is unlikely. Also note that regulatory environemnt can also cause spikes in prices.
One side effect of inflation will likely be significant increases in interest rates as lenders would prefer not loose money when inflation is higher than interest rates.
The problems I am seeing in my industry now is not the chips but other components like resistors and capacitors.
Back to the original post, actually as manufacturing shifts out of China to southeastern Asia, and India, the route for container ships to access North American consumer markets via the Suez Canal to the East Coast becomes competitive.
Port expansions at the Port of Halifax and Port St. John are intended to tap this growing market. Those two ports are the straightest, quickest shot from the Strait of Gibraltar, which is actually located at a relatively high latitude of about 36 degrees north. That is about the same latitude as Norfolk, VA.
While Halifax and Port St John are at about 45 degrees latitude, they are hundreds of miles further east than Norfolk or Baltimore or New York, and are the shortest Great Circle distance from the Strait of Gibraltar.
CN is already in Halifax and Port St John.
It is one reason why CP repurchased their line across Maine. It is one reason why CSX is interested in Pan Am Railways. Both connect with New Brunswick Southern which is the former CP line from Maine to Port St John. New Brunswick Southern could function almost as Pacific Harbor Lines does for UP and BNSF at LA/Long Beach, forwarding container traffic to CP and CSX in Maine from Port St John.
I also think one reason CN is interested in the Massena line is containers from Halifax and Port St John bound for the Upper Eastern Midwest could eventually be grounded at Syracuse and drayed.
'These railroads are looking at long term plays with their activity "down east".
Murphy Sidingt the risk of making such broad sweeping assumptions...
Sincerely, I made my observation with a "when in Rome" sentiment.
After one shovels it long enough, it all pretty much starts smelling the same, doesn't it?
Shadow the Cats owner Another problem they are having and it's starting to get some coverage is just how screwed up the work rules are for the longshoreman out in California. These guys literally get 8 hours of pay for less than 3 hours of work a day. They get 2 hours of paid breaks and lunch a day no more than 3 hours in the cranes a day and if they work a minute more than their shift it's time and a half overtime minimum of 1 hour and double rate for weekends. They also can get any management fired that tries to make them work faster than they want and only they are allowed to move the containers around the harbor unless they are on a chassis. Now there is one dock in Long Beach harbor that is setup with automated cranes for loading the chassis. They do on a normal day 5 times the moves of the manned cranes. https://news.yahoo.com/lazy-crane-operators-making-250-200100567.html LONG BEACH, California — Crane operators who belong to a powerful union and earn up to $250,000 a year transferring containers from ships to trucks are worseni.. .
Gotta bust those unions, gotta keep the help cheap and docile.
Convicted One Murphy Siding t the risk of making such broad sweeping assumptions... Sincerely, I made my observation with a "when in Rome" sentiment. After one shovels it long enough, it all pretty much starts smelling the same, doesn't it?
Murphy Siding t the risk of making such broad sweeping assumptions...
CSSHEGEWISCH Gotta bust those unions, gotta keep the help cheap and docile.
What nobody mentions is that UPS competes and beats FDX with a unionized workforce, while FDX uses nonuinion in Express and "contractors" in Ground and Home Delivery. UPS had much less of a meltdown in the early Covid days because their employees have a career, not a job until something better comes along. Treat and pay employees well, and they will work for you.
Murphy SidingSometimes I can't tell where your posts are going.
Typically when you unload a container of doors, has it been cubed out, or tared out? (trying to evaluate that $20K increase you mention)
I'd imagine if you deal mostly in hollow core, then they would be cubed out? Seems like at 3' x 6'8", there would be a lot of wasted space, regardless of how they were loaded?
CSSHEGEWISCHGotta bust those unions, gotta keep the help cheap and docile.
Alas, unions do have a place, but all too often they seem to live exclusively by Eugene Debs' exhortation "More!"
Fair pay for a days work has two aspects - fair pay, and a day's work.
Of course, we must remember that there's a railroad angle to that, as well. One hundred miles is (or was) a day's pay, whether it takes eight hours or two...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Backshop What's ironic is that some of the workers who would be most helped by a union are the most anti-union.
What's ironic is that some of the workers who would be most helped by a union are the most anti-union.
tree68 CSSHEGEWISCH Gotta bust those unions, gotta keep the help cheap and docile. Alas, unions do have a place, but all too often they seem to live exclusively by Eugene Debs' exhortation "More!" Fair pay for a days work has two aspects - fair pay, and a day's work. Of course, we must remember that there's a railroad angle to that, as well. One hundred miles is (or was) a day's pay, whether it takes eight hours or two...
Murphy SidingSelling those higher end cars, and utlimately selling all your cars once again when the world rights itself, requires that people remember you. That's where the advertising comes in.
You're dead on. Few products are advertised on the idea that a consumer is going to immediate (as in, the next 24 to 72 hours) run out and get it. Like car insurance. Look at the staggering number of car insurance commercials. How many of us change our auto insurance more than once a year? Or more than once every five years? The entire model is designed to put their jingle or funny characters in your head. Notice how every single insurance commercial is designed to be associated with something and designed to be memorable? They can't advertise price or feature set, because those aren't duplicative across all customers. So they have one thing can do: beat their funny lizard or weirdo salesperson or chaos demon who destroys everything into your mind so that when you get around to reworking your car insurance in March 2022, you think "I sure do see that emu a lot. I should look at what they have."
Cars are the same way. They're building brand awareness, so that you can remember them later. I really want to get a Subaru Outback. I'm likely going to get a Subaru Outback. When I see the new Subaru Outback Wilderness, it makes me think "yeah I'm probably not even going to look at anything else because that's exactly what I want." I'm still not planning on a new car any earlier than October 2022. But their commercials are still doing their job: making me think about that electric blue wagon with all the extra scuff plates, higher ride, and all of the other stuff that I don't need to drive to work in a major metro area. But I want.
The 21st Century day, I believe, is at 128 miles. Not all railroading is multiple track, step on and put the throttle in Run 8 and apply the brake at destination. Most runs, with the trains being handled, tie up much closer to their HOS time than they do at 2 hours laughing all the way to the bank.
Too many companies view employees as no more than slaves that they are required to pay - if they can keep from paying them, they do.
A Labor Agreement is nothing more than stating in writing what is expected of each party of the AGREEMENT. Most friction happens because the company does not want to do what they agreed to do.
Convicted One Murphy Siding Sometimes I can't tell where your posts are going. Typically when you unload a container of doors, has it been cubed out, or tared out? (trying to evaluate that $20K increase you mention) I'd imagine if you deal mostly in hollow core, then they would be cubed out? Seems like at 3' x 6'8", there would be a lot of wasted space, regardless of how they were loaded?
Murphy Siding Sometimes I can't tell where your posts are going.
The original origin of this is a right-leaning, anti-union newspaper. Consider the source and bias used in reporting.
The other day on Fox News, there was someone from one of the ports that said there is no where for the boxes to go when they unloaded them. Everyone else in the supply chain is also having problems, truckers, railroads, warehouses. Shortages in equipment and workers.
If the Government wants to do something, temporarily suspend rules that limit older equipment from being used. Stop scaring people about Covid to the point some are afraid to get a job. Stop pushing mandates where large numbers of workers would rather quit than comply.
Jeff
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