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Interesting reading on Milwaukee Road Pacific Coast Extension.

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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 7:50 PM

SD60MAC9500
Yep I think that's what happened. There was no name calling or other attacks I witnessed so I don't understand the issue..

I don't recall any name calling, but I got the impression from time to time that there was an attitude of "if you had half a brain..."  

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, January 2, 2022 7:37 PM
Yes there some kind of technical problem with this thread that arose concomitantly with the disappearance of all of Michael Sol’s comments.  I don’t want to jump to any conclusions for fear of being mistaken, but this is by far the oddest occurrence on this forum that I have ever seen since 2005.  
 
Maybe the moderator could stop by and explain it so we are not inclined to assume that this was a case of censoring of strong opinions that somehow were deemed to fail the fact check.  This was one of the most brilliant discussion/debates I have seen here.  It is just what is needed.  Lately, I get the impression that disagreeing is now considered to be a personal attack.
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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, January 2, 2022 6:26 PM

So once again someone forced out interesting, albeit controversial posts. It's much akin to the Stalinist era, when photos had banished apparatchiks airbrushed outbas though they had never existed.  It's a shame differing options presented in a polite manner are not allowed.

So noting color schemes will be all that remain?

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 5:51 PM

tree68

 

 
SD60MAC9500
It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.

 

Scanning back through the thread, Mr. Sols posts do appear to be gone, although posts quoting him are still there.

He's back, and perhaps is gone, again.

 

Yep I think that's what happened. There was no name calling or other attacks I witnessed so I don't understand the issue..

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, January 2, 2022 5:28 PM

Whoever did what they did totally screwed up the thread.  You can't even access the therad by clicking on the last post from the index.  

Kalmbach IT strikes again.

NOTE - I submitted the above once and the System rejected it.  When I resubmitted it - I was told that it was a duplicate of a existing post.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, January 2, 2022 5:26 PM

Whoever did what they did totally screwed up the thread.  You can't even access the therad by clicking on the last post from the index.  

Kalmbach IT strikes again.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, January 2, 2022 5:16 PM

Why would all of the many comments of one poster in a thread suddenly be removed without any explanation?  Is it possible that Mr. Sol removed them?  I know of no way to delete a post I make without leaving the empty box and some mininal placeholder.  It is really just an edit to replace the content with something like a period.  Will the moderators remove posts made by other forum members if they request it of the moderators?

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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 4:58 PM

SD60MAC9500
It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.

Scanning back through the thread, Mr. Sols posts do appear to be gone, although posts quoting him are still there.

He's back, and perhaps is gone, again.

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 4:27 PM

Euclid

What has happened to this thread with its debate over the Milwaukee Road? 

 

It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.

Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 3:59 PM

Euclid

What has happened to this thread with its debate over the Milwaukee Road? 

Based on the past few posts, the discussion is going great.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, January 2, 2022 3:19 PM

What has happened to this thread with its debate over the Milwaukee Road? 

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, January 2, 2022 2:11 PM

CMStPnP

 

Make sure you look at their cost projections for rehab and improvement closely.  Even in 1970 dollars they are way too low.    I've worked with Booze Hamilton and still work with them distantly today.     They are rather sloppy in their proposals and fail to include items or projections of significance.    They manage to survive as a consulting company as they are skilled at gift wrapping a turd so to speak.    Notice the subtle implication they knew what they were talking about but Milwaukee Road management did not.    You'll note the complete absence of the competing internal Milwaukee Road study along similar lines, which I find to be far more realistic and far less dreamy in wishful thinking.    The Milwaukee Study even looked at a bare bones rehab of 90lb welded rail, knowing full well it would eventually need over 100 lb rail.    It's costs with just the 90lb rail proposal and keeping curves and grades as is was prohibitively expensive and could not easily be recouped using existing traffic levels.    So Milwaukee management was trying to see how vs. downplaying the PCE as not being a winner.   

Lets say Milwaukee went ahead with this.    It had just completed a costly tunnel revamp I believe for Tri-Level Autoracks but did not raise the clearence enough for double-stacks.    A lot of the Milwaukees bridges and trestles would need to be reinforced as well for the heavier car loads as well as heavier locomotives.     The Powder River traffic was already strengthing BN in it's competitive position as well.   I do believe it shared some of it with Milwaukee in the 1970's but only for the short haul to reach power plants on Milwaukee's lines.     I don't see in any reality how the Milwaukee could have revamped it's lines west with what Booze was proposing for costs.     Check out the costs of the BN expansion into the PRB as a rough comparison.

 

I concur with you. After reading their study it had quite a few of loopholes. One standing out.. The mention of traffic projections lacked key information such as profit per move, and if this traffic could even cover operating cost let alone rehab cost. Also lacking was key info on crew cost, cost of locomotive maintenance, fuel usage, power utilization and delays from power mods, as stated by Mark Meyer in his anaylsis. 

I'll add this too Milwaukee should be lucky that this was still an era of 263K GRCWR cars. 

Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, January 2, 2022 12:54 PM

charlie hebdo
I appreciate all the data you include, as opposed to some who can only snipe because it comes from you or because they need the PCE as a scapegoat for why the Milwaukee Road failed beyond the obvious factors of loss of traffic and mismanagement.

The PCE was built without management input?    Who stated that in the past?   If it was built at the behest of management then in fact it was a bad management decision right?    As far as loss of traffic, no proof has been provided that traffic existed in the first place to support construction costs.    In fact the actual construction cost was disputed over figures presented elsewhere on the internet but again.....nothing to backup which figure was correct.    Internet figure or figure presented in this thread.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, January 1, 2022 10:50 AM

TRR
And I appreciate your considerate remarks.

This thread.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, January 1, 2022 10:48 AM

BaltACD
No active links were in the post.

Make sure you look at their cost projections for rehab and improvement closely.   Even in 1970 dollars they are way too low.    I've worked with Booze Hamilton and still work with them distantly today.     They are rather sloppy in their proposals and fail to include items or projections of significance.    They manage to survive as a consulting company as they are skilled at gift wrapping a turd so to speak.    Notice the subtle implication they knew what they were talking about but Milwaukee Road management did not.    You'll note the complete absence of the competing internal Milwaukee Road study along similar lines, which I find to be far more realistic and far less dreamy in wishful thinking.    The Milwaukee Study even looked at a bare bones rehab of 90lb welded rail, knowing full well it would eventually need over 100 lb rail.    It's costs with just the 90lb rail proposal and keeping curves and grades as is was prohibitively expensive and could not easily be recouped using existing traffic levels.    So Milwaukee management was trying to see how vs. downplaying the PCE as not being a winner.   

Lets say Milwaukee went ahead with this.    It had just completed a costly tunnel revamp I believe for Tri-Level Autoracks but did not raise the clearence enough for double-stacks.    A lot of the Milwaukees bridges and trestles would need to be reinforced as well for the heavier car loads as well as heavier locomotives.     The Powder River traffic was already strengthing BN in it's competitive position as well.   I do believe it shared some of it with Milwaukee in the 1970's but only for the short haul to reach power plants on Milwaukee's lines.     I don't see in any reality how the Milwaukee could have revamped it's lines west with what Booze was proposing for costs.     Check out the costs of the BN expansion into the PRB as a rough comparison.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, January 1, 2022 10:24 AM

TRR
Indeed, by 1979, the BN was staggering under a 95% Operating Ratio, almost exactly what I had predicted in ... 1970 if the trends of the 1960s at the consolidted Northern Lines did not change.

During the largest coal haulage traffic expansion in BN's history 1972-1979, due to expansion into the Powder River Basin, initially constructed in 1972 in which BN was able to obtain BOKU financing for an even larger line build during the decade of the 1970's but the C&NW was not.   Yet you put BN and C&NW in the same financial class.

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, December 31, 2021 8:21 PM

TRR

 P. 142 of the Booz Allen Hamilton study. Profitability Projections of Eight Proposed Reorganization Alternatives, Milwaukee Road, 1978

Best regards, Michael Sol

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Posted by n012944 on Friday, December 31, 2021 2:37 PM

Backshop

Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.

 

 

Amazing, isn't it?

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 31, 2021 2:24 PM

TRR

 

 
Backshop
Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.

 

Is there a moral to that story, or a message we can all learn from? If so, what is it? Smile

Best regards, Michael Sol

 

I appreciate all the data you include, as opposed to some who can only snipe because it comes from you or because they need the PCE as a scapegoat for why the Milwaukee Road failed beyond the obvious factors of loss of traffic and mismanagement.

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, December 31, 2021 2:23 PM

TRR

 

 
Backshop
Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.

 

Is there a moral to that story, or a message we can all learn from? If so, what is it? Smile

Best regards, Michael Sol

 

Like Joe Friday would say "Just the facts, ma'am".

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Posted by ns145 on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:59 PM

Backshop

Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.

 



+1

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:44 PM

Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.

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Posted by dcm74 on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:31 PM

Not the Milwaukee, but an interesting read on the battle for the Northern Pacific.https://muse.jhu.edu/book/27303

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Friday, December 31, 2021 10:27 AM

ns145

 

 
TRR

 

 
CMStPnP
  I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains.     Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations.

 


Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:

Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966     1,008,971     100.00
1977        651,866         64.6

The same analysis, Lines West:

Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/Indexed

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966    140,000    100.00
1967    141,000    100.71
1968    142,000    101.43
1969    148,000    105.71
1970    156,600    111.86
1971    173,700    124.07
1972    186,400    133.14
1973    198,100    141.50
1974    172,200    123.00
1975    156,700    111.93
1976    202,500    144.64
1977    199,900    142.79

So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company."

 

This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.

 

 

 

That data just highlights the conundrum of the Milwaukee Road.  They finally score a victory over their Hill Lines nemisis only to have the resulting onslaught of traffic use up what little remaining service life the PCE line had left.  The traffic boom at the end was the PCE's undoing.  There simply wasn't enough money to rebuild the line as the company's finances imploded.     

In reality the Milwaukee Road should have petitioned for inclusion into the BN.  That was the only option that may have resulted in parts of the PCE being saved.  Just like the Rock Island, the Milwaukee Road was one railroad too many to survive on its own.  Building the PCE was always a risky venture because it meant throwing down the gaunlet against both the Hill and Harriman interests.  That said, the Milwaukee Road was doomed anyway, so building a transcon line of its own was probably its best chance at remaining independant.  And the government certainly didn't do the Milwaukee Road or the people of the Northwest any favors by allowing the Hill interests to retain ownership and control over both the GN and NP.  If the Hill interests would have been forced to dump the NP, as Harriman was the SP, then things could have turned out much differently for the Milwaukee Road.  But, as a university history professor once told me, "what-if's" are non-history.

One last observation about the value/viability of Lines East vs. Lines West.  I believe that the CP-KCS merger shows that the most valuable portion of the Milwaukee Road was always its triangle of lines between Chicago, St. Paul, and Kansas City.  GTW, C&NW, and C&NW got into a bidding war for these lines and now they will form the crux of an East-West/North-South transcontinental system.

 

MILW did petition the BN in 1973. However going further back in time before the PCE was a thought. MILW interchanged it's freight with the Hill Lines at the Twin Cities. I'm sure James Hill would have had no problem acquiring the MILW at the time. However the financial's must have not have been healthy. Hence the joint ownership of the Q. A much better connection as far as financial health and future traffic projections.

Once MILW lost that interchange they felt the need to go west. In my opinion a bad decision. As this goes to my comment further back about too much capacity which drives up cost..

Michael Sol's numbers while useful numbers don't show a victory as there's no comparison to the Northern Lines, or UP pre-1970, or BN, and UP post-1970. Just an example in 1972 alone BN originated 319,000 carloads of grain compared to Lines West total carloads for the year.

I'm hoping to find more annual reports from BN so here's one to start with. BN's annual report from 1969. Compare the numbers and make your decision.

http://www.nprha.org/Publications/Annual_Reports/1960s/1969_NPR_ANNUAL_REPORT_M.pdf

 

Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by ns145 on Friday, December 31, 2021 8:04 AM

TRR

 

 
CMStPnP
  I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains.     Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations.

 


Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:

Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966     1,008,971     100.00
1977        651,866         64.6

The same analysis, Lines West:

Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/Indexed

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966    140,000    100.00
1967    141,000    100.71
1968    142,000    101.43
1969    148,000    105.71
1970    156,600    111.86
1971    173,700    124.07
1972    186,400    133.14
1973    198,100    141.50
1974    172,200    123.00
1975    156,700    111.93
1976    202,500    144.64
1977    199,900    142.79

So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company."

 

This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.

 

That data just highlights the conundrum of the Milwaukee Road.  They finally score a victory over their Hill Lines nemisis only to have the resulting onslaught of traffic use up what little remaining service life the PCE line had left.  The traffic boom at the end was the PCE's undoing.  There simply wasn't enough money to rebuild the line as the company's finances imploded.     

In reality the Milwaukee Road should have petitioned for inclusion into the BN.  That was the only option that may have resulted in parts of the PCE being saved.  Just like the Rock Island, the Milwaukee Road was one railroad too many to survive on its own.  Building the PCE was always a risky venture because it meant throwing down the gaunlet against both the Hill and Harriman interests.  That said, the Milwaukee Road was doomed anyway, so building a transcon line of its own was probably its best chance at remaining independant.  And the government certainly didn't do the Milwaukee Road or the people of the Northwest any favors by allowing the Hill interests to retain ownership and control over both the GN and NP.  If the Hill interests would have been forced to dump the NP, as Harriman was the SP, then things could have turned out much differently for the Milwaukee Road.  But, as a university history professor once told me, "what-if's" are non-history.

One last observation about the value/viability of Lines East vs. Lines West.  I believe that the CP-KCS merger shows that the most valuable portion of the Milwaukee Road was always its triangle of lines between Chicago, St. Paul, and Kansas City.  GTW, C&NW, and C&NW got into a bidding war for these lines and now they will form the crux of an East-West/North-South transcontinental system.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:28 AM

TRR
Lines West, gross revenue, 2,296 miles of line, $192,554,074. Earnings per mile of line: $91,257.

"gross revenue", so how much was the Milwaukee losing per year in operating the PCE and servicing the construction debt?

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Posted by BEAUSABRE on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:27 AM

World's longest and most useless branch line

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, December 31, 2021 1:24 AM

TRR
Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this: Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed: Year    Carloads    Percentage 1966     1,008,971     100.00 1977        651,866         64.6 The same analysis, Lines West: Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/Indexed Year    Carloads    Percentage 1966    140,000    100.00 1967    141,000    100.71 1968    142,000    101.43 1969    148,000    105.71 1970    156,600    111.86 1971    173,700    124.07 1972    186,400    133.14 1973    198,100    141.50 1974    172,200    123.00 1975    156,700    111.93 1976    202,500    144.64 1977    199,900    142.79 So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company." This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.

Key points here.....

Was the PCE paid for by this point or was the debt for it still carried on the books?   If the debt for the PCE was largely still on the Milwaukee's books those profitability figures per mile need to be adjusted downwards quite a bit.

GN's practice was not to build until the lines could pay for themselves via traffic.   NP was built per Congressional Mandate, so can't speak for NP.     So how much of BN's per mile profitability was margin based on debt carried?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, December 31, 2021 12:56 AM

TRR
Perhaps I can help you out!

Oh I doubt it, you have already convinced me your not serious about defending any of your comments here and are just putting forth another fantasy for readers to indulge in.  Have fun.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, December 30, 2021 9:56 PM

TRR

 

 
CMStPnP
  I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains.     Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations.

 


Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:

Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966     1,008,971     100.00
1977        651,866         64.6

The same analysis, Lines West:

Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/Indexed

Year    Carloads    Percentage
1966    140,000    100.00
1967    141,000    100.71
1968    142,000    101.43
1969    148,000    105.71
1970    156,600    111.86
1971    173,700    124.07
1972    186,400    133.14
1973    198,100    141.50
1974    172,200    123.00
1975    156,700    111.93
1976    202,500    144.64
1977    199,900    142.79

So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company."

 

This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.

 

The carload numbers for Lines West show large variability in the 70s.  How typical was 1977 for Lines East.  Even so Lines East was still carrying more than 3 times the carloads of Lines West in 1977.  Ton-miles per mile of mainline might be a more informative comparison if such a stat exists.

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