SD60MAC9500Yep I think that's what happened. There was no name calling or other attacks I witnessed so I don't understand the issue..
I don't recall any name calling, but I got the impression from time to time that there was an attitude of "if you had half a brain..."
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
So once again someone forced out interesting, albeit controversial posts. It's much akin to the Stalinist era, when photos had banished apparatchiks airbrushed outbas though they had never existed. It's a shame differing options presented in a polite manner are not allowed.
So noting color schemes will be all that remain?
tree68 SD60MAC9500 It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well. Scanning back through the thread, Mr. Sols posts do appear to be gone, although posts quoting him are still there. He's back, and perhaps is gone, again.
SD60MAC9500 It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.
Scanning back through the thread, Mr. Sols posts do appear to be gone, although posts quoting him are still there.
He's back, and perhaps is gone, again.
Yep I think that's what happened. There was no name calling or other attacks I witnessed so I don't understand the issue..
Whoever did what they did totally screwed up the thread. You can't even access the therad by clicking on the last post from the index.
Kalmbach IT strikes again.
NOTE - I submitted the above once and the System rejected it. When I resubmitted it - I was told that it was a duplicate of a existing post.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Why would all of the many comments of one poster in a thread suddenly be removed without any explanation? Is it possible that Mr. Sol removed them? I know of no way to delete a post I make without leaving the empty box and some mininal placeholder. It is really just an edit to replace the content with something like a period. Will the moderators remove posts made by other forum members if they request it of the moderators?
SD60MAC9500It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.
Euclid What has happened to this thread with its debate over the Milwaukee Road?
What has happened to this thread with its debate over the Milwaukee Road?
It appears someone tried to block and delete responses. I noticed Michael Sols comments from a thread over on Classic Trains have been deleted as well.
Based on the past few posts, the discussion is going great.
CMStPnP Make sure you look at their cost projections for rehab and improvement closely. Even in 1970 dollars they are way too low. I've worked with Booze Hamilton and still work with them distantly today. They are rather sloppy in their proposals and fail to include items or projections of significance. They manage to survive as a consulting company as they are skilled at gift wrapping a turd so to speak. Notice the subtle implication they knew what they were talking about but Milwaukee Road management did not. You'll note the complete absence of the competing internal Milwaukee Road study along similar lines, which I find to be far more realistic and far less dreamy in wishful thinking. The Milwaukee Study even looked at a bare bones rehab of 90lb welded rail, knowing full well it would eventually need over 100 lb rail. It's costs with just the 90lb rail proposal and keeping curves and grades as is was prohibitively expensive and could not easily be recouped using existing traffic levels. So Milwaukee management was trying to see how vs. downplaying the PCE as not being a winner. Lets say Milwaukee went ahead with this. It had just completed a costly tunnel revamp I believe for Tri-Level Autoracks but did not raise the clearence enough for double-stacks. A lot of the Milwaukees bridges and trestles would need to be reinforced as well for the heavier car loads as well as heavier locomotives. The Powder River traffic was already strengthing BN in it's competitive position as well. I do believe it shared some of it with Milwaukee in the 1970's but only for the short haul to reach power plants on Milwaukee's lines. I don't see in any reality how the Milwaukee could have revamped it's lines west with what Booze was proposing for costs. Check out the costs of the BN expansion into the PRB as a rough comparison.
Lets say Milwaukee went ahead with this. It had just completed a costly tunnel revamp I believe for Tri-Level Autoracks but did not raise the clearence enough for double-stacks. A lot of the Milwaukees bridges and trestles would need to be reinforced as well for the heavier car loads as well as heavier locomotives. The Powder River traffic was already strengthing BN in it's competitive position as well. I do believe it shared some of it with Milwaukee in the 1970's but only for the short haul to reach power plants on Milwaukee's lines. I don't see in any reality how the Milwaukee could have revamped it's lines west with what Booze was proposing for costs. Check out the costs of the BN expansion into the PRB as a rough comparison.
I concur with you. After reading their study it had quite a few of loopholes. One standing out.. The mention of traffic projections lacked key information such as profit per move, and if this traffic could even cover operating cost let alone rehab cost. Also lacking was key info on crew cost, cost of locomotive maintenance, fuel usage, power utilization and delays from power mods, as stated by Mark Meyer in his anaylsis.
I'll add this too Milwaukee should be lucky that this was still an era of 263K GRCWR cars.
charlie hebdoI appreciate all the data you include, as opposed to some who can only snipe because it comes from you or because they need the PCE as a scapegoat for why the Milwaukee Road failed beyond the obvious factors of loss of traffic and mismanagement.
The PCE was built without management input? Who stated that in the past? If it was built at the behest of management then in fact it was a bad management decision right? As far as loss of traffic, no proof has been provided that traffic existed in the first place to support construction costs. In fact the actual construction cost was disputed over figures presented elsewhere on the internet but again.....nothing to backup which figure was correct. Internet figure or figure presented in this thread.
TRRAnd I appreciate your considerate remarks.
This thread.
BaltACDNo active links were in the post.
Make sure you look at their cost projections for rehab and improvement closely. Even in 1970 dollars they are way too low. I've worked with Booze Hamilton and still work with them distantly today. They are rather sloppy in their proposals and fail to include items or projections of significance. They manage to survive as a consulting company as they are skilled at gift wrapping a turd so to speak. Notice the subtle implication they knew what they were talking about but Milwaukee Road management did not. You'll note the complete absence of the competing internal Milwaukee Road study along similar lines, which I find to be far more realistic and far less dreamy in wishful thinking. The Milwaukee Study even looked at a bare bones rehab of 90lb welded rail, knowing full well it would eventually need over 100 lb rail. It's costs with just the 90lb rail proposal and keeping curves and grades as is was prohibitively expensive and could not easily be recouped using existing traffic levels. So Milwaukee management was trying to see how vs. downplaying the PCE as not being a winner.
TRRIndeed, by 1979, the BN was staggering under a 95% Operating Ratio, almost exactly what I had predicted in ... 1970 if the trends of the 1960s at the consolidted Northern Lines did not change.
During the largest coal haulage traffic expansion in BN's history 1972-1979, due to expansion into the Powder River Basin, initially constructed in 1972 in which BN was able to obtain BOKU financing for an even larger line build during the decade of the 1970's but the C&NW was not. Yet you put BN and C&NW in the same financial class.
TRR P. 142 of the Booz Allen Hamilton study. Profitability Projections of Eight Proposed Reorganization Alternatives, Milwaukee Road, 1978 Best regards, Michael Sol
P. 142 of the Booz Allen Hamilton study. Profitability Projections of Eight Proposed Reorganization Alternatives, Milwaukee Road, 1978
Best regards, Michael Sol
No active links were in the post.
Backshop Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.
Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed.
Amazing, isn't it?
An "expensive model collector"
TRR Backshop Yet, for all this talk of how well the MILW was doing and how it was trouncing everyone, it failed. Is there a moral to that story, or a message we can all learn from? If so, what is it? Best regards, Michael Sol
Is there a moral to that story, or a message we can all learn from? If so, what is it?
I appreciate all the data you include, as opposed to some who can only snipe because it comes from you or because they need the PCE as a scapegoat for why the Milwaukee Road failed beyond the obvious factors of loss of traffic and mismanagement.
Not the Milwaukee, but an interesting read on the battle for the Northern Pacific.https://muse.jhu.edu/book/27303
ns145 TRR CMStPnP I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains. Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations. Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:Year Carloads Percentage1966 1,008,971 100.001977 651,866 64.6The same analysis, Lines West:Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/IndexedYear Carloads Percentage1966 140,000 100.001967 141,000 100.711968 142,000 101.431969 148,000 105.711970 156,600 111.861971 173,700 124.071972 186,400 133.141973 198,100 141.501974 172,200 123.001975 156,700 111.931976 202,500 144.641977 199,900 142.79So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company." This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville. That data just highlights the conundrum of the Milwaukee Road. They finally score a victory over their Hill Lines nemisis only to have the resulting onslaught of traffic use up what little remaining service life the PCE line had left. The traffic boom at the end was the PCE's undoing. There simply wasn't enough money to rebuild the line as the company's finances imploded. In reality the Milwaukee Road should have petitioned for inclusion into the BN. That was the only option that may have resulted in parts of the PCE being saved. Just like the Rock Island, the Milwaukee Road was one railroad too many to survive on its own. Building the PCE was always a risky venture because it meant throwing down the gaunlet against both the Hill and Harriman interests. That said, the Milwaukee Road was doomed anyway, so building a transcon line of its own was probably its best chance at remaining independant. And the government certainly didn't do the Milwaukee Road or the people of the Northwest any favors by allowing the Hill interests to retain ownership and control over both the GN and NP. If the Hill interests would have been forced to dump the NP, as Harriman was the SP, then things could have turned out much differently for the Milwaukee Road. But, as a university history professor once told me, "what-if's" are non-history. One last observation about the value/viability of Lines East vs. Lines West. I believe that the CP-KCS merger shows that the most valuable portion of the Milwaukee Road was always its triangle of lines between Chicago, St. Paul, and Kansas City. GTW, C&NW, and C&NW got into a bidding war for these lines and now they will form the crux of an East-West/North-South transcontinental system.
TRR CMStPnP I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains. Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations. Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:Year Carloads Percentage1966 1,008,971 100.001977 651,866 64.6The same analysis, Lines West:Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/IndexedYear Carloads Percentage1966 140,000 100.001967 141,000 100.711968 142,000 101.431969 148,000 105.711970 156,600 111.861971 173,700 124.071972 186,400 133.141973 198,100 141.501974 172,200 123.001975 156,700 111.931976 202,500 144.641977 199,900 142.79So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company." This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.
CMStPnP I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains. Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations.
Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:Year Carloads Percentage1966 1,008,971 100.001977 651,866 64.6The same analysis, Lines West:Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/IndexedYear Carloads Percentage1966 140,000 100.001967 141,000 100.711968 142,000 101.431969 148,000 105.711970 156,600 111.861971 173,700 124.071972 186,400 133.141973 198,100 141.501974 172,200 123.001975 156,700 111.931976 202,500 144.641977 199,900 142.79So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company."
This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.
That data just highlights the conundrum of the Milwaukee Road. They finally score a victory over their Hill Lines nemisis only to have the resulting onslaught of traffic use up what little remaining service life the PCE line had left. The traffic boom at the end was the PCE's undoing. There simply wasn't enough money to rebuild the line as the company's finances imploded.
In reality the Milwaukee Road should have petitioned for inclusion into the BN. That was the only option that may have resulted in parts of the PCE being saved. Just like the Rock Island, the Milwaukee Road was one railroad too many to survive on its own. Building the PCE was always a risky venture because it meant throwing down the gaunlet against both the Hill and Harriman interests. That said, the Milwaukee Road was doomed anyway, so building a transcon line of its own was probably its best chance at remaining independant. And the government certainly didn't do the Milwaukee Road or the people of the Northwest any favors by allowing the Hill interests to retain ownership and control over both the GN and NP. If the Hill interests would have been forced to dump the NP, as Harriman was the SP, then things could have turned out much differently for the Milwaukee Road. But, as a university history professor once told me, "what-if's" are non-history.
One last observation about the value/viability of Lines East vs. Lines West. I believe that the CP-KCS merger shows that the most valuable portion of the Milwaukee Road was always its triangle of lines between Chicago, St. Paul, and Kansas City. GTW, C&NW, and C&NW got into a bidding war for these lines and now they will form the crux of an East-West/North-South transcontinental system.
MILW did petition the BN in 1973. However going further back in time before the PCE was a thought. MILW interchanged it's freight with the Hill Lines at the Twin Cities. I'm sure James Hill would have had no problem acquiring the MILW at the time. However the financial's must have not have been healthy. Hence the joint ownership of the Q. A much better connection as far as financial health and future traffic projections.
Once MILW lost that interchange they felt the need to go west. In my opinion a bad decision. As this goes to my comment further back about too much capacity which drives up cost..
Michael Sol's numbers while useful numbers don't show a victory as there's no comparison to the Northern Lines, or UP pre-1970, or BN, and UP post-1970. Just an example in 1972 alone BN originated 319,000 carloads of grain compared to Lines West total carloads for the year.
I'm hoping to find more annual reports from BN so here's one to start with. BN's annual report from 1969. Compare the numbers and make your decision.
http://www.nprha.org/Publications/Annual_Reports/1960s/1969_NPR_ANNUAL_REPORT_M.pdf
TRRLines West, gross revenue, 2,296 miles of line, $192,554,074. Earnings per mile of line: $91,257.
"gross revenue", so how much was the Milwaukee losing per year in operating the PCE and servicing the construction debt?
World's longest and most useless branch line
TRRWell, relying on "actual data," we do know this: Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed: Year Carloads Percentage 1966 1,008,971 100.00 1977 651,866 64.6 The same analysis, Lines West: Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/Indexed Year Carloads Percentage 1966 140,000 100.00 1967 141,000 100.71 1968 142,000 101.43 1969 148,000 105.71 1970 156,600 111.86 1971 173,700 124.07 1972 186,400 133.14 1973 198,100 141.50 1974 172,200 123.00 1975 156,700 111.93 1976 202,500 144.64 1977 199,900 142.79 So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, confirming the experience of the Northeastern and all Midwestern railroads, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company." This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.
Key points here.....
Was the PCE paid for by this point or was the debt for it still carried on the books? If the debt for the PCE was largely still on the Milwaukee's books those profitability figures per mile need to be adjusted downwards quite a bit.
GN's practice was not to build until the lines could pay for themselves via traffic. NP was built per Congressional Mandate, so can't speak for NP. So how much of BN's per mile profitability was margin based on debt carried?
TRRPerhaps I can help you out!
Oh I doubt it, you have already convinced me your not serious about defending any of your comments here and are just putting forth another fantasy for readers to indulge in. Have fun.
TRR CMStPnP I think the stat I heard from the 1950s was 2-3 through freights a day plus the passenger trains. Show me the written testimony from operations of this windfall traffic, maybe a few first person accounts from operations. Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:Year Carloads Percentage1966 1,008,971 100.001977 651,866 64.6The same analysis, Lines West:Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/IndexedYear Carloads Percentage1966 140,000 100.001967 141,000 100.711968 142,000 101.431969 148,000 105.711970 156,600 111.861971 173,700 124.071972 186,400 133.141973 198,100 141.501974 172,200 123.001975 156,700 111.931976 202,500 144.641977 199,900 142.79So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company." This does not illuminate the high value, long haul nature of that traffic, most of which was 1) high value, 2) long haul, on the longest haul transcontinental railroad in the nation, Portland/Louisville.
Well, relying on "actual data," we do know this:Lines East (of Miles City): Carloadings, indexed:Year Carloads Percentage1966 1,008,971 100.001977 651,866 64.6The same analysis, Lines West:Milwaukee Road Lines West Carloadings/IndexedYear Carloads Percentage1966 140,000 100.001967 141,000 100.711968 142,000 101.431969 148,000 105.711970 156,600 111.861971 173,700 124.071972 186,400 133.141973 198,100 141.501974 172,200 123.001975 156,700 111.931976 202,500 144.641977 199,900 142.79So, there you have Lines East collapsing over the ten year period, by 36%, and Lines West, during the same period, growing by 43%. THAT is why an exasprated retired President, VP Finance, Curtiss Crippen shot down Worthington Smith in 1975: "That line is the lifeblood of this Company."
The carload numbers for Lines West show large variability in the 70s. How typical was 1977 for Lines East. Even so Lines East was still carrying more than 3 times the carloads of Lines West in 1977. Ton-miles per mile of mainline might be a more informative comparison if such a stat exists.
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