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Amtrak Wreck in Philadelphia

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Posted by Norm48327 on Sunday, May 17, 2015 4:36 PM

If you "thought" there may be a fox outside the henhouse would you panic the chickens?

Norm


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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, May 17, 2015 4:41 PM

schlimm
 
Euclid
With that in mind, I am greatly surprised that Robert Sumwalt said he wants to downplay the theory that the train was struck by gunfire.  Why on earth would he publically announce anything that tends to downplay that theory before it is fully investigated by the FBI and others?  Why would he even personally jump to the conclusion that nothing struck the train?  To me, it sounds like he is downplaying this for some other reason besides the findings of the investigation, because the investigation is far from finished.      

Your answer from your own post is right in front of your eyes, in red, directly below:

Robert Sumwalt said on CBS's "I've seen the fracture pattern; it looks like something about the size of a grapefruit, if you will, and it did not even penetrate the entire windshield," Sumwalt said. 

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Posted by seppburgh2 on Sunday, May 17, 2015 4:54 PM

One other item to think about is a potato gun.  Bearing Sea Gold next to last 2015 season showed a ‘war’ between three dredgers shooting each other with potato guns. We need to wait for more details to come out.  Given the location's lack of overhead structures (there is a walk-over bridge, but no one has mention if it was still open to the public), going to take ballistic experts to calculate the forces involved with the projectile(s).

 

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Posted by jslader_sr on Sunday, May 17, 2015 5:05 PM

Amtrak is now reporting full service will resume Monday.

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Posted by ricktrains4824 on Sunday, May 17, 2015 5:30 PM

So, NTSB cannot comment on an ongoing investigation, will not and cannot divulge information about a sensitive investigation while ongoing, yet Sumwalt did just that, in divulging that he does not feel it was gunfire damage. 

Yes, there is not scaring of culprit(s), but, then, why comment at all? If your afraid you will scare them off, don't comment. If you are afraid they may do it again if you don't comment, then say it's being looked into. But, why, if you call on experts, would you then immediately discredit the reason you called them in?

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, May 17, 2015 5:43 PM
I conclude that for some reason, they don’t want to say it was gunfire, even if it was gunfire.  They are now saying that the train was struck by projectiles, but that had nothing to do with causing the wreck.  I have to assume that they are saying that because they know it was gunfire and saying it did not cause the wreck takes the issue off of the table, so they don’t have to tell us anything about gunfire. 
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Posted by Paul of Covington on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:00 PM

   As I see it, Sumwalt is not saying it wasn't gunfire.   He's just saying don't jump to conclusions before the investigation is done.

   Back in my working life, I learned that it was very helpful in troubleshooting a problem to approach it with total agnosticism, not in the religious sense, but with a mind clear of any preconceptions, guesses and assumptions.   There was an old-timer in our group who, when he heard a bunch of "It could be..." or "It might be...", would nod and say "Yep.  Either that or something else."

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Posted by edblysard on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:03 PM
Did a little test today..
Took 3 apples to work with me, and had my engineer make a track speed pass….our max speed is 20 mph.
20 feet away from the tracks, with the locomotive headed almost head on to me, I managed to get one apple out of the three into the windshield, and our MK1500Ds have big windshields.
Keep in mind I played short stop on league teams and all through high school, and am a pretty good thrower.
So with what appears to be three impacts, I can’t see one person hitting the windshield of a 50 mph train with anything close to the size stated, “something the size of a grapefruit.”
Go outside and find a rock or brick that big, and see how far you can throw it….not far at all, so if, and this is a big if, those are rock impacts, then first, there was more than one person throwing, second, they had to be close, really close to the tracks, like a few feet away just to hit the train with something that big and heavy and that person would show up on the locomotives camera.
So, if one assumes those are bullet impacts, then, as a person who used to carry a gun as part of his job, I can categorically state that a person would have had to use a large caliber semi- automatic pistol and be a very accomplished shooter to get three on target, and again, they would have to be close to the racks, 50 feet or under, and in a position that had the train heading almost directly at them, so again, the camera would most likely show them.
That said, as a person who also hunted most of my life, I can say someone with a semi-auto rifle from 100 yards out would have a good chance of getting three on target.
You couldn’t do three with a lever or bolt action rifle, but a semi-automatic like a AR15 would do just fine.
Keep in mind the windshield isn’t bullet proof, but bullet resistant, and is made of several laminates or layers, add in the bullets velocity and the trains forward speed and you could do some severe damage to a windshield…I doubt you could penetrate it with anything under a .50 caliber, but the damage I saw in the photos is quite possible with a .223, maybe a 30-30 or 308.
As for the post that suggested a full automatic gun, keep in mind most full autos are not very accurate, especially the big bore guns, and a small caliber gun wouldn’t do that much damage, a Glock 9mm wouldn’t do that to a thick windshield even adding the trains speed to the impact velocity.
No matter what you see in the movies, even small caliber .22 full autos are hard to shoot well, they are designed to spray an area with bullets, not sharp shoot with, and if it was a full auto, then the shooter would had had to police his brass, and looking for 20, 30 or 50 shell casings in the dark, and finding all of them, then escaping un seen seems very unlikely.
That said, I went out in the back yard a little while ago, and using my AR15, pretended to shoot of three rounds….it would be quite possible to get three on target, and police the brass, tuck the rifle under a coat and walk away in under 15 seconds.
Now, I am not stating those are bullet impacts, but it is possible.
And for those who are saying the impacts don’t look like a bullet made them, exactly how many bullet impacts on moving locomotives windshields have you seen?

Having grown up with rifles and such, and being a 14 year old out in the woods with my buddies and our rifles, we shot up a lot of junk, including a ¾” thick sheet of Lucite, (Plexiglas)

With my 308, from 50 feet, the bullet did not penetrate, but did make a large spider web pattern and took a small divot out of the front.

My friends Winchester 30-30 made a perfect star burst pattern, and managed to pop a small chip off the inside  of the sheet.

Based on my experience, a laminate windshield would not be penetrated…it would show a pattern, depending on the angle of the shot, but unless it was a straight or head on shot, I would not expect a perfect starburst…I would expect crazing and a large spider web pattern radiating away from the impact.

For what it is worth, those look like bullet impacts to me, impacts from a medium caliber hunting rifle.

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:16 PM

Bow to Ed for sharing his thoughts, experience, expertise, and the results of his experiment.

"One test is worth a thousand theories." - EMD engineer (perhaps Dick Dilworth). 

Note that the pattern seems to be from lower left to upper right.  My understanding - which may be inncorrect - is that is characteristic of automatic weapon fire. 

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Posted by edblysard on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:24 PM
Paul,
My AR15 “walks” in semi-automatic fire…from lower left up to the right.

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:31 PM

What about an object being dropped from Kensington Ave overpass?

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Posted by WDGF on Sunday, May 17, 2015 6:58 PM

edblysard
...then the shooter would had had to police his brass...

Just a thought -- and I haven't shot one, so no experience with them -- what about something in the .454 Casull to .500 S&W range? Large projectile with a goodly amount of energy, and no need to police the brass after. I don't expect it'd be quick to bring back on target, though.

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Posted by gardendance on Sunday, May 17, 2015 7:18 PM

Electroliner 1935, Kensington Ave is not an overpass. Amtrak passes between the Frankford El and Kensington Ave, but I don't see how surveilance camera's wouldn't notice a terrorist or vandal going onto the elevated train structure. I'm not saying that vandals don't walk the el tracks, but that they should show on cameras at Tiog or Erie el stations. Kensington Ave itself, as do all streets for several blocks on both sides of the wreck curve, go under Amtrak. The nearest overpass I think is G st, at least 4 blocks west, which seems to me to be long after the train should have accelerated past 80mph.

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Posted by edblysard on Sunday, May 17, 2015 7:53 PM
Unless it was a competition revolver with a lot of custom work, I don’t think there would be enough time to get three rounds off….but I don’t shoot competition, so I may be wrong.
My .357 isn’t fast enough, but it is a stock factory model with no mods.

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Posted by ouibejamn on Sunday, May 17, 2015 8:41 PM
So are you going to share the results of your experiments with the NTSB or the FBI?
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Posted by tomikawaTT on Monday, May 18, 2015 3:08 AM

Ed,

Just a thought.  Do you think a 7.62/39mm round might do that kind of damage?  If so, it could implicate the terrorist/gangbanger's favorite piece, the AK-47.

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Posted by SSW9389 on Monday, May 18, 2015 4:28 AM

Then you sir would be right handed, a left handed shooter has the opposite pattern. The military learned this long ago with the M-16, about the "barrel climb". That is why the newer versions of the military rifle limit automatic fire to three round bursts.  

edblysard
Paul,
My AR15 “walks” in semi-automatic fire…from lower left up to the right.
 

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Posted by edblysard on Monday, May 18, 2015 5:15 AM

I am a right handed shooter.

Chuck, it could, and there are a lot of them out there.

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Posted by gardendance on Monday, May 18, 2015 5:20 AM

I think the suspicious character a witness said they saw moving quickly away from a street near the wreck is probably not related to the wreck. I find it hard to believe that anyone who might have shot at the train somewhere a mile or so before the wreck would have anticipated that their target would have sped up enough to derail at the curve, let alone have had accomplices stationed on city streets at various places near the railroad. And what strategic purpose would this accomplice stationed near the curve have served?

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, May 18, 2015 6:39 AM

Euclid

It seems to me that if you plow up ballast at 106 mph, the ballast rocks are going to be moving about 106 mph in the same direction as the train.  So I don't see how the train impacts the airborne ballast with enough force to cause much damage.

 

Because the wave of particles interact and collide with each other.

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, May 18, 2015 6:52 AM

MrLynn

 

 
wanswheel

Excerpt from NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/us/projectile-problem-goes-beyond-amtrak-train-and-philadelphia.html

. . . Karl Edler, a retired engineer who drove the line hundreds of times, said an impact could help explain the wreck. When a train pulls out of the North Philadelphia station, the engineer usually twists the throttle “up to notch eight, which is engineer-speak for wide open” he said.

It is about three miles to the curve where Amtrak 188 derailed.

“Usually you just leave the throttle open until you get up to 80 miles per hour, then put on the brake for the curve,” he said. “Seems reasonable that something happened right about that time he would have started slowing down that kept him from taking the throttle off. He was startled by the impact or whatever. And by the time he realized it, it was too late.”

 

This is starting to look like a plausible explanation of what happened.

/Mr Lynn

 

 

 

Sounds plausible until you look at this:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html

This train didn't make N. Phila.  It rolled through at track speed.  If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.

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Posted by Caseys Brakeman on Monday, May 18, 2015 6:59 AM

Gun fire is probably the easiest to rule on.  Is there a bullet in the glass or cabin?  -Bullet residue in the glass?

The results of hitting ballast, ties, and cat's that are moving at 0 mph with a 100-ton object that is moving at 100 mph is at the very least ......unpredictable.

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, May 18, 2015 7:12 AM

edblysard
Keep in mind the windshield isn’t bullet proof, but bullet resistant, and is made of several laminates or layers, add in the bullets velocity and the trains forward speed and you could do some severe damage to a windshield

Yes.  There is a ballistic test for FRA I (front) and II (side) glazing, but it's not "bullet proof". (I'll see if I can scare up the specs.)

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, May 18, 2015 7:19 AM

Found it

49 CFR Part 223, Appendix A to Part 223 - Certification of Glazing Materials

 

(10) The Test Specimen for glazing material that is intended for use in end facing glazing locations shall be subjected to a Type I test regimen consisting of the following tests:
(i) Ballistic Impact in which a standard 22 caliber long rifle lead bullet of 40 grains in weight impacts at a minimum of 960 feet per second velocity.
(ii) Large Object Impact in which a cinder block of 24 lbs minimum weight with dimensions of 8 inches by 8 inches by 16 inches nominally impacts at the corner of the block at a minimum of 44 feet per second velocity. The cinder block must be of composition referenced in American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Specification C33L or ASTM C90.
 
Success is defined by:
 
(14) A material so tested must perform so that:
(i) there shall be no penetration of the back surfaces (side closest to Witness Plate) of the Target Material by the projectile. Partial penetration of the impact (front) surface of the Target Material does not constitute a failure; and
(ii) there shall be no penetration of particles from the back side of the Target Material through the back side of the prescribed Witness Plate.

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Posted by MrLynn on Monday, May 18, 2015 7:44 AM

oltmannd
Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila.  It rolled through at track speed.  If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.

Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station?  The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?).  Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction.  That's what he failed to do, in that scenario.

/Mr Lynn

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Posted by Caseys Brakeman on Monday, May 18, 2015 7:54 AM

Gun fire is probably the easiest to rule on.  Is there a bullet in the glass or cabin?  -Bullet residue in the glass?

The results of hitting ballast, ties, and cat's that are moving at 0 mph with a 100-ton object that is moving at 100 mph is at the very least ......unpredictable.

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, May 18, 2015 8:15 AM

MrLynn

 

 
oltmannd
Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila.  It rolled through at track speed.  If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.

 

Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station?  The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?).  Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction.  That's what he failed to do, in that scenario.

/Mr Lynn

 

N. Phila is about where the 58 mph mark is.  

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Posted by Deggesty on Monday, May 18, 2015 10:30 AM

oltmannd
 
MrLynn

 

 
oltmannd
Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila.  It rolled through at track speed.  If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.

 

Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station?  The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?).  Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction.  That's what he failed to do, in that scenario.

/Mr Lynn

 

 

 

N. Phila is about where the 58 mph mark is.  

 

And, it is 3.2 miles south of Frankford Junction.

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Posted by jrb1537 on Monday, May 18, 2015 12:06 PM

Has there been any word on what sort of projectile hit the other two trains?

Also, just how often is it that trains (passenger or otherwise) are "rocked" or shot at?  Is it out of the ordinary to have two (maybe three) hit in an area on the same day?

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, May 18, 2015 1:34 PM

jrb1537

Has there been any word on what sort of projectile hit the other two trains?

Also, just how often is it that trains (passenger or otherwise) are "rocked" or shot at?  Is it out of the ordinary to have two (maybe three) hit in an area on the same day?

 

Most territories have their 'rock zones'.  In some cases occasional trains are struck.  In other cases nearly every train gets struck.  This isn't a new problem.

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