If you "thought" there may be a fox outside the henhouse would you panic the chickens?
Norm
schlimm Euclid With that in mind, I am greatly surprised that Robert Sumwalt said he wants to downplay the theory that the train was struck by gunfire. Why on earth would he publically announce anything that tends to downplay that theory before it is fully investigated by the FBI and others? Why would he even personally jump to the conclusion that nothing struck the train? To me, it sounds like he is downplaying this for some other reason besides the findings of the investigation, because the investigation is far from finished. Your answer from your own post is right in front of your eyes, in red, directly below: Robert Sumwalt said on CBS's "I've seen the fracture pattern; it looks like something about the size of a grapefruit, if you will, and it did not even penetrate the entire windshield," Sumwalt said.
Euclid With that in mind, I am greatly surprised that Robert Sumwalt said he wants to downplay the theory that the train was struck by gunfire. Why on earth would he publically announce anything that tends to downplay that theory before it is fully investigated by the FBI and others? Why would he even personally jump to the conclusion that nothing struck the train? To me, it sounds like he is downplaying this for some other reason besides the findings of the investigation, because the investigation is far from finished. Your answer from your own post is right in front of your eyes, in red, directly below: Robert Sumwalt said on CBS's "I've seen the fracture pattern; it looks like something about the size of a grapefruit, if you will, and it did not even penetrate the entire windshield," Sumwalt said.
Your answer from your own post is right in front of your eyes, in red, directly below:
Robert Sumwalt said on CBS's "I've seen the fracture pattern; it looks like something about the size of a grapefruit, if you will, and it did not even penetrate the entire windshield," Sumwalt said.
One other item to think about is a potato gun. Bearing Sea Gold next to last 2015 season showed a ‘war’ between three dredgers shooting each other with potato guns. We need to wait for more details to come out. Given the location's lack of overhead structures (there is a walk-over bridge, but no one has mention if it was still open to the public), going to take ballistic experts to calculate the forces involved with the projectile(s).
Amtrak is now reporting full service will resume Monday.
So, NTSB cannot comment on an ongoing investigation, will not and cannot divulge information about a sensitive investigation while ongoing, yet Sumwalt did just that, in divulging that he does not feel it was gunfire damage.
Yes, there is not scaring of culprit(s), but, then, why comment at all? If your afraid you will scare them off, don't comment. If you are afraid they may do it again if you don't comment, then say it's being looked into. But, why, if you call on experts, would you then immediately discredit the reason you called them in?
Ricky W.
HO scale Proto-freelancer.
My Railroad rules:
1: It's my railroad, my rules.
2: It's for having fun and enjoyment.
3: Any objections, consult above rules.
As I see it, Sumwalt is not saying it wasn't gunfire. He's just saying don't jump to conclusions before the investigation is done.
Back in my working life, I learned that it was very helpful in troubleshooting a problem to approach it with total agnosticism, not in the religious sense, but with a mind clear of any preconceptions, guesses and assumptions. There was an old-timer in our group who, when he heard a bunch of "It could be..." or "It might be...", would nod and say "Yep. Either that or something else."
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
Having grown up with rifles and such, and being a 14 year old out in the woods with my buddies and our rifles, we shot up a lot of junk, including a ¾” thick sheet of Lucite, (Plexiglas)
With my 308, from 50 feet, the bullet did not penetrate, but did make a large spider web pattern and took a small divot out of the front.
My friends Winchester 30-30 made a perfect star burst pattern, and managed to pop a small chip off the inside of the sheet.
Based on my experience, a laminate windshield would not be penetrated…it would show a pattern, depending on the angle of the shot, but unless it was a straight or head on shot, I would not expect a perfect starburst…I would expect crazing and a large spider web pattern radiating away from the impact.
For what it is worth, those look like bullet impacts to me, impacts from a medium caliber hunting rifle.
23 17 46 11
to Ed for sharing his thoughts, experience, expertise, and the results of his experiment.
"One test is worth a thousand theories." - EMD engineer (perhaps Dick Dilworth).
Note that the pattern seems to be from lower left to upper right. My understanding - which may be inncorrect - is that is characteristic of automatic weapon fire.
- Paul North.
What about an object being dropped from Kensington Ave overpass?
edblysard...then the shooter would had had to police his brass...
Just a thought -- and I haven't shot one, so no experience with them -- what about something in the .454 Casull to .500 S&W range? Large projectile with a goodly amount of energy, and no need to police the brass after. I don't expect it'd be quick to bring back on target, though.
Electroliner 1935, Kensington Ave is not an overpass. Amtrak passes between the Frankford El and Kensington Ave, but I don't see how surveilance camera's wouldn't notice a terrorist or vandal going onto the elevated train structure. I'm not saying that vandals don't walk the el tracks, but that they should show on cameras at Tiog or Erie el stations. Kensington Ave itself, as do all streets for several blocks on both sides of the wreck curve, go under Amtrak. The nearest overpass I think is G st, at least 4 blocks west, which seems to me to be long after the train should have accelerated past 80mph.
Patrick Boylan
Free yacht rides, 27' sailboat, zip code 19114 Delaware River, get great Delair bridge photos from the river. Send me a private message
Ed,
Just a thought. Do you think a 7.62/39mm round might do that kind of damage? If so, it could implicate the terrorist/gangbanger's favorite piece, the AK-47.
Chuck [MSgt(ret)]
Then you sir would be right handed, a left handed shooter has the opposite pattern. The military learned this long ago with the M-16, about the "barrel climb". That is why the newer versions of the military rifle limit automatic fire to three round bursts.
edblysard Paul, My AR15 “walks” in semi-automatic fire…from lower left up to the right.
I am a right handed shooter.
Chuck, it could, and there are a lot of them out there.
I think the suspicious character a witness said they saw moving quickly away from a street near the wreck is probably not related to the wreck. I find it hard to believe that anyone who might have shot at the train somewhere a mile or so before the wreck would have anticipated that their target would have sped up enough to derail at the curve, let alone have had accomplices stationed on city streets at various places near the railroad. And what strategic purpose would this accomplice stationed near the curve have served?
Euclid It seems to me that if you plow up ballast at 106 mph, the ballast rocks are going to be moving about 106 mph in the same direction as the train. So I don't see how the train impacts the airborne ballast with enough force to cause much damage.
It seems to me that if you plow up ballast at 106 mph, the ballast rocks are going to be moving about 106 mph in the same direction as the train. So I don't see how the train impacts the airborne ballast with enough force to cause much damage.
Because the wave of particles interact and collide with each other.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
MrLynn wanswheel Excerpt from NY Times http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/us/projectile-problem-goes-beyond-amtrak-train-and-philadelphia.html . . . Karl Edler, a retired engineer who drove the line hundreds of times, said an impact could help explain the wreck. When a train pulls out of the North Philadelphia station, the engineer usually twists the throttle “up to notch eight, which is engineer-speak for wide open” he said. It is about three miles to the curve where Amtrak 188 derailed. “Usually you just leave the throttle open until you get up to 80 miles per hour, then put on the brake for the curve,” he said. “Seems reasonable that something happened right about that time he would have started slowing down that kept him from taking the throttle off. He was startled by the impact or whatever. And by the time he realized it, it was too late.” This is starting to look like a plausible explanation of what happened. /Mr Lynn
wanswheel Excerpt from NY Times http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/us/projectile-problem-goes-beyond-amtrak-train-and-philadelphia.html . . . Karl Edler, a retired engineer who drove the line hundreds of times, said an impact could help explain the wreck. When a train pulls out of the North Philadelphia station, the engineer usually twists the throttle “up to notch eight, which is engineer-speak for wide open” he said. It is about three miles to the curve where Amtrak 188 derailed. “Usually you just leave the throttle open until you get up to 80 miles per hour, then put on the brake for the curve,” he said. “Seems reasonable that something happened right about that time he would have started slowing down that kept him from taking the throttle off. He was startled by the impact or whatever. And by the time he realized it, it was too late.”
Excerpt from NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/us/projectile-problem-goes-beyond-amtrak-train-and-philadelphia.html
. . . Karl Edler, a retired engineer who drove the line hundreds of times, said an impact could help explain the wreck. When a train pulls out of the North Philadelphia station, the engineer usually twists the throttle “up to notch eight, which is engineer-speak for wide open” he said.
It is about three miles to the curve where Amtrak 188 derailed.
“Usually you just leave the throttle open until you get up to 80 miles per hour, then put on the brake for the curve,” he said. “Seems reasonable that something happened right about that time he would have started slowing down that kept him from taking the throttle off. He was startled by the impact or whatever. And by the time he realized it, it was too late.”
This is starting to look like a plausible explanation of what happened.
/Mr Lynn
Sounds plausible until you look at this:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html
This train didn't make N. Phila. It rolled through at track speed. If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.
Gun fire is probably the easiest to rule on. Is there a bullet in the glass or cabin? -Bullet residue in the glass?
The results of hitting ballast, ties, and cat's that are moving at 0 mph with a 100-ton object that is moving at 100 mph is at the very least ......unpredictable.
edblysardKeep in mind the windshield isn’t bullet proof, but bullet resistant, and is made of several laminates or layers, add in the bullets velocity and the trains forward speed and you could do some severe damage to a windshield
Yes. There is a ballistic test for FRA I (front) and II (side) glazing, but it's not "bullet proof". (I'll see if I can scare up the specs.)
Found it
oltmanndSounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila. It rolled through at track speed. If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.
Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station? The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?). Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction. That's what he failed to do, in that scenario.
MrLynn oltmannd Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila. It rolled through at track speed. If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve. Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station? The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?). Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction. That's what he failed to do, in that scenario. /Mr Lynn
oltmannd Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila. It rolled through at track speed. If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve.
N. Phila is about where the 58 mph mark is.
oltmannd MrLynn oltmannd Sounds plausible until you look at this: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/13/us/investigating-the-philadelphia-amtrak-train-crash.html This train didn't make N. Phila. It rolled through at track speed. If the throttle was in notch 8 at that point, it would have been well over 106 by the curve. Where on that map is the N. Philadelphia station? The 188 engineer did remember running through that location (not a stop) and ringing his bell--presumably at the prescribed speed (= 50 mph?). Then, as the retired engineer said, he would have normally accelerated at notch 8 to 80 mph and then backed off, until time to slow for the curve at the junction. That's what he failed to do, in that scenario. /Mr Lynn N. Phila is about where the 58 mph mark is.
Johnny
Has there been any word on what sort of projectile hit the other two trains?
Also, just how often is it that trains (passenger or otherwise) are "rocked" or shot at? Is it out of the ordinary to have two (maybe three) hit in an area on the same day?
jrb1537 Has there been any word on what sort of projectile hit the other two trains? Also, just how often is it that trains (passenger or otherwise) are "rocked" or shot at? Is it out of the ordinary to have two (maybe three) hit in an area on the same day?
Most territories have their 'rock zones'. In some cases occasional trains are struck. In other cases nearly every train gets struck. This isn't a new problem.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
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