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Amtrak Wreck in Philadelphia

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Posted by edblysard on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 4:57 PM

Rick Gates
Deja vous.
 

I was wondering if you would comment…been awhile since you were here, it is good to hear you again!

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:15 PM

Euclid

There is nothing wrong with speculation or theories.  It is not illegal, immoral, or against the forum rules.  A curious public speculating about the cause of accidents such as this one is a healthy thing. 

 

Bucky, you can speculate all you want, just as soon as the professionals are done with their investigation.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:30 PM

No, I don't think that's the way it works Murry.  I get a kick out of people who say they don't speculate.  The next thing you know, they are telling others that they must not speculate either.

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Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:41 PM

Euclid

No, I don't think that's the way it works Murry.  I get a kick out of people who say they don't speculate.  The next thing you know, they are telling others that they must not speculate either.

 

Stay on Point Bucky.  You are causing this thread to deviate.

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Posted by Boyd on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:45 PM

This thread would be more fun if it really were a Bigfoot startling the driver and we finally get a Bigfoot body to prove all of the deniers wrong. 

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:46 PM

edblysard
BOB SCHIEFFER: But, as the investigator, you don't know? ROBERT SUMWALT: Well, I-- I do. But, of course, there is HIPAA regulations that would prohibit even-- even me from releasing those-- those sorts of information, so I'll just tell you what-- what the media sources are. But, yes, he-- he did spend some time in the hospital. Basically, he is explaining why he is allowed to lie or mislead the public.

No. He was just following the law. HIPPA (the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act) among other things protects an individual's medical chart from re-release by 3rd parties.  Sumwalt would be in violation of the law had he disclosed any more than he did about the engineer's medical condition that came from the ER chart.

Interesting discussion about gunshots and laminated glass.  Keep in mind that has already been ruled out by the FBI, perhaps for the points Ed brings up.

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 5:46 PM

Euclid
Ed,
 
I was particularly interested in the first part of that quote about the gunfire question.  When Sumwalt said he wanted to “downplay” that matter, I think that is exactly what he was doing.  He was saying what was required to make it look like gunfire was not a possibility. 
 

   He said "downplay", not "discount."     I interpret that as "not probable."

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 6:38 PM

Murray
 
Euclid

No, I don't think that's the way it works Murry.  I get a kick out of people who say they don't speculate.  The next thing you know, they are telling others that they must not speculate either.

 

 

 

Stay on Point Bucky.  You are causing this thread to deviate.

 

 

A thread that is deviating?  Say it isn’t so.  I can just see Sumwalt on Face the Nation about a year from now being interviewed by Bob Shieffer.  He will say, “Well Bob, we were planning on having the investigation all wrapped up by Friday, but then we learned that Euclid has been speculating.”    

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 6:46 PM

Euclid

 

 
Murray
 
Euclid

No, I don't think that's the way it works Murry.  I get a kick out of people who say they don't speculate.  The next thing you know, they are telling others that they must not speculate either.

 

 

 

Stay on Point Bucky.  You are causing this thread to deviate.

 

 

 

 

A thread that is deviating?  Say it isn’t so.  I can just see Sumwalt on Face the Nation about a year from now being interviewed by Bob Shieffer.  He will say, “Well Bob, we were planning on having the investigation all wrapped up by Friday, but then we learned that Euclid has been speculating.”    

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAAqGaNCFAY

 

 

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Posted by Norm48327 on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 6:54 PM

"but then we learned that Euclid has been speculating.”   

Not speculating, but "telling us we are wrong". Zzz

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 7:37 PM

Paul of Covington
He said "downplay", not "discount."     I interpret that as "not probable."

Indeed - The press (and the public) love to run amok with something like that.  The next thing that would "come out" would be something along the lines of the entire train having evidence of bullet holes.  Or something like that.

It's not a focal point of their investigation - just one of many factors being considered.

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Posted by seppburgh2 on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 8:59 PM

Local radio news at 5 PM today stated two railway unions were calling for two conductors.  Something got hosed in transmission.  Is there now a call for Amtrak to return to two man cab crew?  Remember it was not that long ago either the UP or BNSF was asking for 1 man crew and a super-conductor.  But, that proposal was voted down by the workforce.  Any one who can clarify this "two conductor" statement?

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Posted by rfpjohn on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 9:45 PM

Thought I'd add my two cents worth. As expected, the question of two men in the cab has been brought up. Granted, there have been many accidents with two crew members in the cab. What can not be tabulated, is how many accidents have been prevented by having two sets of eyes and two brains in the cab. I have been an engineer for 36 years now, mostly working interdivisional freight runs, though I did work quite a bit of passenger service prior to Amtrak manning their own trains off corrider (8/1986). I have always made it a practice of conferring with my conductor over upcoming operational events (slow orders, work authorities,etc.) and signal aspects. Even having the dullest witted, sleepy newby in the cab gives me a sense of security, in that, if nothing else, he might question "just what the @#$%@# are you doing?" The regular conductor with whom I've worked for years is an excellant man. We both feel that two half-wits are far better than one. More on topic: I don't believe the engineer of train 188 has ever said anything about getting rocked/shot at. He simply does not remember. Whether he will ever recall remains to be seen. Pure speculation here: I have not seen the cab interior of the new Amtrak electrics. Is there anything in the cab he could have inadvertantly struck his head on? You can get some pretty violent jolts in the cab of a speeding locomotive. We had quite a few locomotives equipped with radio units in the ceiling over the engineers windshield. They were stowed in a bracket which was accessed through a hinged door. If not properly secured, this door was set to come down nicely upon the thick skull of some unsuspecting hoghead. Hope Amtrak didn't make this design flaw!

 

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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:04 PM

So we have:

1.  Paul's theory of a problem of situational awareness.  Sounds quite plausible.

2.  Ed's unofficial tests, exploring the possibility that gunfire contributed.  Some folks have suggested that official FBI/NTSB denial of this is a calculated plan.  I have no idea how plausible this is.

3.  A mechanical or electrical problem, such as a stuck throttle.  I don't know how plausible this is.

4.  Something else, to be discovered.

I personally like the idea of two sets of eyes in the cab, with an engineer and assistant engineer each verbally confirming the observations of the other.   I suspect the news reports of calls for two conductors is just another typical example of news reporters not knowing the difference between a conductor and an engineer.  I realize there have been past situations in which the two crew members have distracted each other, but Mr. Bostian's past record hints that he wasn't the type to fall into that trap.  Maybe PTC will make this unnecessary, but I'd feel better to have both PTC and a second crew member up front.

Until somebody comes up with new information, I think that's where we stand.  Any additional comments?

Tom

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Posted by MrLynn on Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:25 PM

ACY

So we have:

1.  Paul's theory of a problem of situational awareness.  Sounds quite plausible.

2.  Ed's unofficial tests, exploring the possibility that gunfire contributed.  Some folks have suggested that official FBI/NTSB denial of this is a calculated plan.  I have no idea how plausible this is.

3.  A mechanical or electrical problem, such as a stuck throttle.  I don't know how plausible this is.

4.  Something else, to be discovered.

I personally like the idea of two sets of eyes in the cab, with an engineer and assistant engineer each verbally confirming the observations of the other.   I suspect the news reports of calls for two conductors is just another typical example of news reporters not knowing the difference between a conductor and an engineer.  I realize there have been past situations in which the two crew members have distracted each other, but Mr. Bostian's past record hints that he wasn't the type to fall into that trap.  Maybe PTC will make this unnecessary, but I'd feel better to have both PTC and a second crew member up front.

Until somebody comes up with new information, I think that's where we stand.  Any additional comments?

Tom

 

 
Excellent summary; thanks.  And thanks for leaving out the accusations of insensivity or wrong-headedness that were derailing (as it were) this thread.
 
I agree with your view on having two people in the cab (engineer/conductor, engineer/fireman—might as well use the traditional term!).  I'd be willing to pay a little more for my Amtrak tickets to pay the salary of the second guy.
 
/Mr Lynn
 
 
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Posted by wanswheel on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 2:23 AM
Transcript from This Week Without David Brinkley
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And thank you for joining us, Mr. Sumwalt. What more can you tell us about this idea that projectile might have hit the train and what it might have done?
ROBERT SUMWALT, NTSB LEAD INVESTIGATOR: George, thanks for having us. And you know this idea of something striking the train, that's one of the many things that we're looking at right now. We interviewed the Amtrak -- let's see, we interviewed the dispatchers, and we listened to the dispatch tape and we heard no communications at all from the Amtrak engineer to the dispatch center to say that something had struck his train.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Nothing at all?
SUMWALT: Nothing at all. Nothing at all that he reported to the dispatch center.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So this is just as you say one theory, nothing reported early on. You've spoken now with the engineer. He's remembered so little. So are you any closer to figuring out the cause of the crash?
SUMWALT: Well, we're at this stage, George, we're just in the fact finding stage of the investigation. I will say this, that we've called for inward facing video cameras for a long time, and we feel that had we had cameras that would help to help with this investigation significantly.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But have you been able to rule anything out? You know, I spoke with the engineer's lawyer the other day. He said that the engineer was not drinking, no drugs in his system, not texting at the time, his phone was locked away. Have you been able to confirm all that?
SUMWALT: Well, we have conducted drug and alcohol testing in accordance with the federal law. We have also requested the cell phone records, as we do for any transportation accident. So these are the many things that we are doing. And we just slowly start -- we start gathering the information and then slowly start ruling things out.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And what's the most important thing you need to know right now?
SUMWALT: Well, I think what we need to know, we need the traveling public to know that the NTSB is conducting a very thorough investigation and we will get to the bottom of this. And we have to have positive train control implemented soon to keep things like this from happening in the future.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But we just heard it may not happen by the end of the year.
SUMWALT: Well, you're right. And that's very troubling to the NTSB. We have seen countless accidents over the years that could have been prevented had positive train control been implemented.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, Mr. Sumwalt, thanks very much for joining us this morning.
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Posted by edblysard on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 5:17 AM

Love how Sumwalt never answered any of the questions, but managed to get a plug in for "inward facing cameras" and PTC....nahhh, there is no real agenda here!

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 6:17 AM

edblysard

Love how Sumwalt never answered any of the questions, but managed to get a plug in for "inward facing cameras" and PTC....nahhh, there is no real agenda here!

Politician - say nothing and push an agenda.

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 6:31 AM

Just watched a History Channel 'Engineering Disasters' about the Asiana Airlines plane that landed short of the runway at San Francisco last year.  The conclusion of the NTSB, as identified in the segment, was that the flight crew didn't fully understand the operation of the Autopilot hardware/software that was operational on the plane and thought Autopilot was in charge at the time that the pilot was the only one in charge.

Could 188's engineer have had some confusion with when, where and how ACESSES (or whatever Amtrak calls it) actually operated in this location?

While all the talking heads are promoting PTC as the panacea of all the industry's operational failings - with the complexity I am seeing incorporated into PTC and it's operation (and the operational rules have yet to be published) I can foresee a number of accidents caused by PTC and the crews misunderstanding of how it operates.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 8:16 AM
They are continually stressing that they heard no communication from the engineer saying his train was struck by projectiles.  This almost seems like more of Sumwalt “downplaying” the whole projectile angle of the story as if to imply that the Amtrak train was not struck by projectiles before it derailed.
 
Yet two other trains did report being hit in windshield by projectiles in the same area and almost the same time.  At least one of those reports did include the possibility of the projectiles being gunfire.  The appearance of the projectile damage on the two trains is fundamentally identical.  And while we don’t have any crewmember report of the Amtrak train being hit by projectiles, that locomotive too has a pattern of the same fundamental damage to its windshield.  If you look at close-up photos of the locomotive windshields of the three trains, the similarity is undeniable.
 
I sense that this whole projectile theory is a real political hot potato, and unbearably so if the projectiles were bullets.  It opens the door to a criminal cause of the wreck for a variety of possible motives.    
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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 8:33 AM

There has already been an accident in PTC territory.  In 2012 at Niles, MI in territory with Amtrak's version of PTC, a train went through an open switch into a yard track.  It was determined that a jumper wire used by a signal dept. employee caused the false clear in the signal system.

Now, while it wasn't a direct failure of PTC, it was a failure in that PTC is worthless if any of the sub-systems it has to work with fail or are compromised.  Stop and think for a minute all that has to work.  The back-office computer, the on-board computer, all the transmitter/receivers (fixed and on equipment), all the signal imputs from the field (block occupancy, switch position, etc).  A single failure in one of those can compromise the entire system.  Usually, if something fails, the system should be fail-safe, but it may not always be so has the Niles accident shows. 

Jeff

  

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Posted by Dakguy201 on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 9:39 AM

This is an article by someone with a background in disaster management who happened to be a passenger on train 188.  In brief, it suggests the Philadelphia police and fire departments responded with the competent professionalism we hope all such organizations possess, but Amtrak performed poorly in the days following the wreck.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/amtrak-188-survivor-118123.html

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Posted by gardendance on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:07 AM

Euclid
Yet two other trains did report being hit in windshield by projectiles in the same area and almost the same time.  At least one of those reports did include the possibility of the projectiles being gunfire.  The appearance of the projectile damage on the two trains is fundamentally identical.  And while we don’t have any crewmember report of the Amtrak train being hit by projectiles, that locomotive too has a pattern of the same fundamental damage to its windshield.  If you look at close-up photos of the locomotive windshields of the three trains, the similarity is undeniable. 

I know of only 1 train hit in the windshield, the SEPTA train whose engineer safely stopped at North Philly. I have read of an Amtrak Acela express which had a passenger window hit, whose outer pane shattered, but whose inner pane held.

What's the second train that you know of that got a windshield hit?

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:11 AM

MrLynn
I agree with your view on having two people in the cab (engineer/conductor, engineer/fireman—might as well use the traditional term!).  I'd be willing to pay a little more for my Amtrak tickets to pay the salary of the second guy.

Two guys didn't help the Crescent avoid running a stop north of Charlottesville VA a few months ago (just missed colliding with NS intermodal train)

Two guys didn't help at Chase MD in 1987, either. In fact, having only one in the Amtrak train that day, saved a life.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:16 AM

Dakguy201

This is an article by someone with a background in disaster management who happened to be a passenger on train 188.  In brief, it suggests the Philadelphia police and fire departments responded with the competent professionalism we hope all such organizations possess, but Amtrak performed poorly in the days following the wreck.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/amtrak-188-survivor-118123.html

 

Good article.  It speaks volumes about the poor "culture" in at least some departments at Amtrak.

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:16 AM

.

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:17 AM

jeffhergert

There has already been an accident in PTC territory.  In 2012 at Niles, MI in territory with Amtrak's version of PTC, a train went through an open switch into a yard track.  It was determined that a jumper wire used by a signal dept. employee caused the false clear in the signal system.

Now, while it wasn't a direct failure of PTC, it was a failure in that PTC is worthless if any of the sub-systems it has to work with fail or are compromised.  Stop and think for a minute all that has to work.  The back-office computer, the on-board computer, all the transmitter/receivers (fixed and on equipment), all the signal imputs from the field (block occupancy, switch position, etc).  A single failure in one of those can compromise the entire system.  Usually, if something fails, the system should be fail-safe, but it may not always be so has the Niles accident shows. 

Jeff

  

 

It took two solid years from operational prototype to production to get the LSL ATC system to work right and safely.  Nearly all the time was spent on software revisions. There were many critical errors discovered and corrected that would prevent the system from making a penalty brake application when it should!

And, this was a relatively simple overlay on the existing cab signal system.

I have no idea what the software testing standard for PTC is, or will be.  It most certainly won't (and can't) rise to the "fail safe" standard of signal system hardware and software. 

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:21 AM

Euclid
They are continually stressing that they heard no communication from the engineer saying his train was struck by projectiles.  This almost seems like more of Sumwalt “downplaying” the whole projectile angle of the story as if to imply that the Amtrak train was not struck by projectiles before it derailed.
 
Yet two other trains did report being hit in windshield by projectiles in the same area and almost the same time.  At least one of those reports did include the possibility of the projectiles being gunfire.  The appearance of the projectile damage on the two trains is fundamentally identical.  And while we don’t have any crewmember report of the Amtrak train being hit by projectiles, that locomotive too has a pattern of the same fundamental damage to its windshield.  If you look at close-up photos of the locomotive windshields of the three trains, the similarity is undeniable.
 
I sense that this whole projectile theory is a real political hot potato, and unbearably so if the projectiles were bullets.  It opens the door to a criminal cause of the wreck for a variety of possible motives.    
 

News flash:  The FBI ruled out bullet marks on the Amtrak train.   But you seem intent on weaving some conspiracy of criminals and a government cover-up so I suppose the FBI's and NTSB's statements are all part of "plausible deniability" in your tale. 

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Posted by Norm48327 on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:36 AM

Euclid
(1) They are continually stressing that they heard no communication from the engineer saying his train was struck by projectiles.  This almost seems like more of Sumwalt “downplaying” the whole projectile angle of the story as if to imply that the Amtrak train was not struck by projectiles before it derailed.
 
Yet two other trains did report being hit in windshield by projectiles in the same area and almost the same time.  At least one of those reports did include the possibility of the projectiles being gunfire.  The appearance of the projectile damage on the two trains is fundamentally identical.  And while we don’t have any crewmember report of the Amtrak train being hit by projectiles, that locomotive too has a pattern of the same fundamental damage to its windshield.  If you look at close-up photos of the locomotive windshields of the three trains, the similarity is undeniable.
 
(2) I sense that this whole projectile theory is a real political hot potato, and unbearably so if the projectiles were bullets.  It opens the door to a criminal cause of the wreck for a variety of possible motives.    
 

Think real hard about number one. Something hits the windshield; are you going to talk on the radio or DUCK?

(2) It could very well be, and if so, they are not willing to make it public for valid reasons.

As Schlimm said, your conspiracy theory is getting out of hand.

Norm


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Posted by Buslist on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 10:43 AM

[quote user="oltmannd]

I have no idea what the software testing standard for PTC is, or will be.  It most certainly won't (and can't) rise to the "fail safe" standard of signal system hardware and software. 

 

[/quote]

 

FRA rules require 99.9... (5 9s) reliable, how can that be assured ? And why the penalty stopping distance is so capacity decreasing.

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