Zardoz; good read. ~~~ Ireally liked the point made about some of the weather casters. some don't bother to look out the window, in Az. They just throw darts at a spinning wheel and call it good.
Cannonball
Y6bs evergreen in my mind
zardoz ago we had some heavy rain storms in the Milwaukee area. Some locations received 8" of rain IN ONE HOUR!! Needless to say, there was much flooding. The forecast that day? Partly cloudy with occasional thunderstorms, with a precipitation forecast of 1/2 to 1".
ago we had some heavy rain storms in the Milwaukee area. Some locations received 8" of rain IN ONE HOUR!! Needless to say, there was much flooding. The forecast that day? Partly cloudy with occasional thunderstorms, with a precipitation forecast of 1/2 to 1".
I'm actually not going to be too easy on them. If there was a front stalled in the area, they should have known that training was likely to occur. 8" is certainly more than one would expect, but 1/2 to 1" was underdone, in my opinion. I know, it's easy for me to criticize when I'm just a sophomore in college.
More data would be a very good thing. The computer models are constantly getting revised and updated to make them more accurate, but without more data, no great leaps and bounds are going to be made. I still believe, however, that not everything hinges on the computer models. Common sense and analysis of previous, similar situations, can be a good thing too. Some meteorologists seem to forget that, and simply echo the model data.
I have a great deal of respect for one of the seniors that graduated this spring. For one, he tutored me in Calc II and got me through that. However, he also just got a job at a TV station up in Sioux City, Iowa and I have high hopes for him. He seems to have a good method of taking our modern forecasting techniques (like the computer models) and mixing those techniques with more old school methods. The result is accurate forecasts.
It's definitely an interesting and exciting time to be entering the field of meteorology. I wonder what changes will occur, even before I graduate from college?
And for the record: forecasting those "panhandle hook" storm systems is easy. Just say that they'll go anywhere but Omaha, and you'll be right on the money.
Willy
I worked with upper air/rawinsonde/weather balloons for several years while I was in USAF. I can identify a skew-T when I see it, and can even interpret a bit of it.
They've gotten a lot more automated than they were when I was plotting winds using the computed horizontal distance out. But the end data is still about the same. There are about 100 US weather stations launching two balloons a day, with another 700 worldwide. All stations launch their balloons at the same time (1115Z and 2315Z) so as to capture a worldwide "snapshot" of what's going on in the atmosphere.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
zardoz [snip] . . . what happened in Milwaukee was that a front stalled right over southern Wisconsin, and the stroms moved eastbound along the front, each cell dropping it's copious amount of water--plus the storms moved really slow. [snip]
Around here the weather forecasters and reporters often call that . . . "training" . . . (sorry - I couldn't resist)
What I've read is that every decade or so, the time-scale "window" of usually reliable forecasting gets longer by about a day. I believe it's around in the 5-6 day range now. I don't mind the uncertainty and the missed forecasts - that's in the nature of the beast - but I can't stand the media hype of "big storms" and "better get prepared", etc. when they really don't know that, either.
I agree about the need for more data - but useful data, which is more likely to be obtained from the higher levels of the atmosphere than at ground level . That's why the observatory at Mt. Washington, New Hampshire is so popular and useful - it provides data from around 6,200 ft. above MSL 24 x 7 without any flight costs and regardless of how bad it gets - unless the anerometer blows off the building again !
Again, I highly recommend Storm Watchers: The Turbulent History of Weather Prediction from Franklin's Kite to El Nino by John D. Cox (Wiley, 2002, ISBN-10: 047138108X, ISBN-13: 978-0471381082) if you really want to know how tough it can be, and the long and tortured history of weather prediction.
The Chaos Theory thing has it that if a butterfly flaps its wings in the tropics, it might wind up causing a tornado in Kansas. That sounds as good as any causal - yep, that's the correct spelling - connection to me . . .
- Paul North.
...that would be one heck of a computer. I won a trivia question on a radio show one time about the rough number of calculations (nearest milltionth) in the average weather forecast. I simply guessed but was closest by the end of the call in time. Couldn't tell you what my answer was today. My math skills are sufficient that I can balance the checkbook and calculate formulas for weight and geometry in my head...but that's what I need for what I do currently. Calculus? Cripes, I hope it isn't contagious! That to me is like asparagus to Mookie...
Weather station at home reported for today (high numbers): T-88; DP-76; RH-71%; Index-107 F YUCK!
More irons in the fire and none staying hot yet...some may have the start of a glow but it's too early to tell. Had one of my clients tell me today that "...during our sessions I simply hate your guts. Then I see how things are changing and pounds and inches are dropping. Then I love you!" To which I said "Thanks, it's nice to hear - now let's do two more sets!" At a meeting last night where many of my clients get together for that part of the program they're in apparently the consensus of the group largely mirrors what I was directly told. Guess I'm doing something right.
Dan
tree68And you can never tell when a "perfect micro-storm" might brew up - it all looks innocent enough until that little patch of green (on the radar representation) is suddenly turning purple (the most intense returns).
But that's my point: that with all of the upper-air soundings and the other technology, it amazes me when something like you describe (or what happened in Milwaukee) happens.
To be somewhat fair, what happened in Milwaukee was that a front stalled right over southern Wisconsin, and the stroms moved eastbound along the front, each cell dropping it's copious amount of water--plus the storms moved really slow.
I know that one of the problems for micro-forecasting is the lack of data. When one considers how far apart the reporting stations are, alot of weather can be developing in those in-between locations (hence my comment about reinstating the weather observers). What is needed is data from every cubic mile. I read somewhere that even if there was a reporting station for every square mile, the amount of data gathered would require a supercomputer that would dwarf the ones being used now. Perhaps something like Deep Thought from Hitchhiker's Guide.
zardoz ...but it seems that they miss so often...
We have a similar issue here with snow - lake effect to be exact. The weatherguessers seem to hit that on the head pretty well.
In their defense, however, "scattered showers" are usually exactly that - scattered. I watched a small shower pass through the parking lot at our local community college once. It was as if someone had drawn a line across the lot - rain here, no rain there.
And you can never tell when a "perfect micro-storm" might brew up - it all looks innocent enough until that little patch of green (on the radar representation) is suddenly turning purple (the most intense returns).
We often have just the opposite problem - what looks like a nasty storm over around Buffalo and Toronto gets moderated by Lake Ontario and we're lucky to get a few drops while the folks to the north and south of us are getting hammered.
Willy2I'm a meteorology major at Creighton in Omaha right now. I've made it through Calc I and Calc II, along with Physics I. This semester I have to deal with differential equations, and then it will be Calc III and Physics II. So far, I've been lucky to have good professors and upper classmen that have actually been willing to help me out with the math.
Isn't it amazing that with all of the mathematical talent, all of the supercomputers, and all of the sattelite and radar information available, it is still difficult (at best) for forecasters to accurately predict the weather. I'm not saying they can't forecast adequately, but it seems that they miss so often. Perhaps Chaos Theory is all the math that is needed. That, and to reinstate the army of Weather Observers that the Weather Service used to employ. Nothing like actually looking out the window to see what is transpiring.
I'm frequently amazed how in winter the forecasters can predict snowstorms many days in advance. Where I live (between Milwaukee and Chicago) we are in a location that has many "panhandle hook" storms come our way. These storms are such that there is a narrow path (+/- 50 miles) of heavy snow surrounded by many hundreds of miles of moderate or light snow. Obviously, the path of the storm is extremely critical to who gets the heavy snow. Milwaukee can be getting 12" of snow while Chicago can be getting rain at the same time. Yet each winter the meteorologists predict the storm path with amazing accuracy.
However,a few weeks ago we had some heavy rain storms in the Milwaukee area. Some locations received 8" of rain IN ONE HOUR!! Needless to say, there was much flooding. The forecast that day? Partly cloudy with occasional thunderstorms, with a precipitation forecast of 1/2 to 1".
Zug,
I'm a meteorology major at Creighton in Omaha right now. I've made it through Calc I and Calc II, along with Physics I. This semester I have to deal with differential equations, and then it will be Calc III and Physics II. So far, I've been lucky to have good professors and upper classmen that have actually been willing to help me out with the math.
Did you have any idea where you wanted to work? TV station, NWS, private forecasting company?
And I've never really understood the whole concept of storm chasing. There's this one storm chaser who posts beautiful photos on the internet, which is fine. But, he drives into thunderstorms on purpose, hoping to get hit with the biggest hail in the storm. Why would you want to destroy your car like that? There's also the risk of personal injury from that. I just don't get it.
All you have to do is watch one of those storm chaser shows to get an idea just how "enthusiastic" some of those people will get - even as their car is getting pounded to smithereens by hail the size of bowling balls (or so it would seem).
And there are those who will pay big money for a week of letting someone else not be able to find a storm worth watching.... I prefer to sit and wait. And, like Zug mentions - I have to consider that after the storm passes I'm going to get very busy for a while.
Zug! I am impressed. And that isn't easy. Think you made the right choice, however. Many cities/co/states are getting rid of personnel right now. Probably including planners.
Other thought directly involving you - re: the "new" forum, my first reaction was to post "A Facebook Forum for Railroaders". But I bit my tongue and said nothing. You did it for me, nicely.
She who has no signature! cinscocom-tmw
Can I bring up a topic from a few days ago without getting pummeled? (I'm new in these parts).
"Weather weenies". In a past life, in a galaxy far, far, away, I once attended college. Never though I was edumakated, huh? I fool the best of 'em! I actually started out in a meteorology program (we have a very good school close by here). I was in it for about 2 years. Got completely floored when it came to Calculus 3 and Physics 2. I was fine in calc 2, but once they got into the 3rd dimensional vector crap, I was lost. Just couldn't picture the 3rd plane. Physics I blame on a goofy professor that couldn't even answer his own examples. And since the school was smaller, you were stuck with this dolt for just about every physics course. Those that can do; those that can't teach; and those that are totally helpless become professors. Then there was the futile attempt in learning Fortran. I couldn't program a single line, yet somehow I passed that course. The wonders of the curve! And no, not Horseshoe Curve, although that is equally as amazing - and physics to boot. Hmm.
It was fine if you were independent and could learn from the books - unfortunately I was never blessed with such ability. In all those right brain/left brain tests, I always was 50/50. Jack of all trades, with the uncanny ability to screw them all up!
But to the point - some of those guys in that program made even the most extreme train foamers look tame. I see a tornado, I see death and destruction. They saw it as some exciting thing. Maybe, but the death and destruction always ruined it for me. But I did find my true passion (which I never would have imagined) in geography (with a gov't minor). Loved every minute of that, and I *SHOULD* have went to grad school to pursue a master's in planning. But stupid me let the RR bug bite, and now I get to spend my nights fighting with a robot locomotive in a yard.
Although I still love storm light, and always enjoy the "blue hour".
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
rvos1979I'm guessing that Carl has just the Antenna, and as he has found, the new digital TV signal is finickier than the old analog. I have a 13" AC/DC television in the truck that has the digital tuner built in, and it is very picky on the signal, you can be in a rest area watching TV, a truck could drive past on the highway, and the signal will go out, even with a "good" antenna. For Carl, I'm guessing he will either need a larger antenna mast, or have to get cable strung to the cottage (or do what I do, bring DVD copies of favorite shows and movies with)
Uh-oh....I see now I read Carl's comment wrong....Guess another answer would be to use "Direct TV" satelite......That will {would}, bring him plenty of clear stations on plenty of channels. HD too.
I understand the Digital signal is more tight and serious to bring in......Especially if trying to do it with a private antenna.
Article in our local paper just this morning they have pushed back the cut off date {of analog}, to sometime in November, if I understand them correctly. That is Comcast, our cable co.
Still think our digital TV's would pick up the digital signal without their cable box....Just not the services they are trying to get one to use...On Demand, movies, etc......
Quentin
rvos1979Carl: what lineage was the current UP line through Muskogee and McAllister, OK and Dennison, TX? MoPac or Katy? wondered this today as I was driving down US69/US75, which this line parallels for a LONG way......
ModelcarCShaveRRWe put one of those boxes on the TV set up here at the cottage in Michigan. Now, instead of getting lousy reception on two or three stations, we get crystal-clear reception--on absolutely nothing! But you are connected to cable, right Carl.....?
CShaveRRWe put one of those boxes on the TV set up here at the cottage in Michigan. Now, instead of getting lousy reception on two or three stations, we get crystal-clear reception--on absolutely nothing!
But you are connected to cable, right Carl.....?
I'm guessing that Carl has just the Antenna, and as he has found, the new digital TV signal is finickier than the old analog. I have a 13" AC/DC television in the truck that has the digital tuner built in, and it is very picky on the signal, you can be in a rest area watching TV, a truck could drive past on the highway, and the signal will go out, even with a "good" antenna. For Carl, I'm guessing he will either need a larger antenna mast, or have to get cable strung to the cottage (or do what I do, bring DVD copies of favorite shows and movies with).
Carl: what lineage was the current UP line through Muskogee and McAllister, OK and Dennison, TX? MoPac or Katy? wondered this today as I was driving down US69/US75, which this line parallels for a LONG way......
Randy Vos
"Ever have one of those days where you couldn't hit the ground with your hat??" - Waylon Jennings
"May the Lord take a liking to you and blow you up, real good" - SCTV
Hey Carl,
This came up on the C&NW Yahoo Group-
Can someone explain what the acronym "PRIDE" meant or stood for on the 65' bulkhead gondolas?
Surely you know?
Carl
Railroader Emeritus (practiced railroading for 46 years--and in 2010 I finally got it right!)
CAACSCOCOM--I don't want to behave improperly, so I just won't behave at all. (SM)
CShaveRRQuentin, these boxes had been provided to us by Comcast at no charge. We could ask for as many as we needed,
Yes, here too in similar fashion....Free, are one "Digital Reciever"....and two {if needed}, DTA units.
My point is...with digital TV's, I believe we have the ablility to receive as we were before, but now, according to Comcast, we had to add these "extra" electronics pieces, and more cables to deal with, etc....and in my opinion, for their bottom line. It's my understanding if a digital TV has a "QAM" receiver, it is already equipted to receive a total digital signal either from a "Broadcast station", and or Cable signal.
CShaveRRHe also installed the digital equipment necessary on the two TV sets in our house that hadn't already been equipped, further enhancing our incoming communications capabilities.
Carl, I wonder if {your area}, is going thru the same necessary digital equipment being installed, supplied by the cable co as we are......Here it's Comcast, and I never had cable boxes before now.....
Just installed them about 2 weeks ago {have 2 digital flat sc. sets too}, and I still think it's a push by Comcast to get more for their bottom line. Additional, interactive, on demand, movies, etc.....I believe I could disconnect the cable antenna from the "box" and connect it to our digital sets and be just fine.
I will try that one of these days to see if I am correct.
They indicated all TV's must have them after Sept. 29th. Still think it's just a set up of equipment one will use to spend more on premium each month.
Their reasoning was they previously broadcast both with analog and digital, and now it will be 100% digital on that date.
CShaveRR Pat was not very happy about that initially, and thought nothing good could come of it.
Carl, considering the stupidity of some (notable, even) people who have made various items public, I can understand Pat's wariness. But, she should have had no worries about your exercising wisdom as to what could possibly become public.
Sorry to hear that you had some trouble with water. I asked my nephew in Bolingbrook about possible damage, and he told me that since their house is on a rise, they usually have no damage other than that some mud seeps into the basement.
Johnny
Willy2 If you do get a little more involved on Facebook, Quentin, follow Carl's advice and avoid the games. Unless, of course, you've always dreamed of running your own virtual farm and being able to ask your "neighbors" if you can borrow some oats to feed your livestock...
If you do get a little more involved on Facebook, Quentin, follow Carl's advice and avoid the games. Unless, of course, you've always dreamed of running your own virtual farm and being able to ask your "neighbors" if you can borrow some oats to feed your livestock...
......Rest assured willy, I need none of that....for sure.
CShaveRRMy pension? I won't really know until I get a check, and that might not be before October 1.
My actual pension didn't start until several months after I retired. Fortunately they were gracious enough to guesstimate what the monthly amount would be and sent me a check anyhow. Also fortunately, they underestimated and I got a surprise bonus when they paid me what they still owed me.
I did indeed have a very nice visit with Carl and his wife, Pat and daughter and son-in-law. It was very nice to meet you, Carl and your family.
I also want to say "hello" to the aspiring young photographer from my hometown of Indy who just happened to be practicing his craft at the station there in Elmhurst. Christian, keep taking photographs and who knows, maybe one day we'll see your picture in TRAINS. Now how cool would that be?
tina
Sounds like you had a good day, Carl! Nice luck with the three-way meet. Is your pension going to be as large as the Omaha police chief's pension? If it is, you're set for life.
CShaveRRQuentin, you supply some information to Facebook to enroll, but they don't supply it to others. And you have control over what information of yours becomes public knowledge--none of it has to be.
Yes, thanks Carl. We'll stick around a while with eyes / ears open.
Re: Facebook - you can also ignore friends who are just too chatty. You won't see their stuff, but they'll still be listed as a friend. I've dumped one so far who was actually a classmate of my daughter - I didn't really need to see a ton of posts about her daughters' cheerleading adventures.
You can ignore friend requests, too.
You can also ignore the suggestions Facebook makes which are usually based on friends you may have in common.
On the other hand, you may link up with someone you wouldn't mind communicating with again after all these years. You'd be surprised how many of my HS classmates are on Facebook.
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