New Orleans and Amtrak

[tpatrick]

New Orleans has a plan. Next time a hurricane hits, Amtrak will come to the rescue. Never mind that last year an Amtrak train was available and not used. That's a lesson learned, I guess. So let's consider this scenario:

It is August 2006 and a large hurricane has entered the Gulf of Mexico. It is a Category Two storm, but the forecast is for strengthening, perhaps to C-4. Its exact route is unknown, but it is expected to make landfall somewhere between Cameron LA and Mobile AL. What is known is that wherever it goes, it is going to be there in 3 1/2 to 4 days. Your name is Nagin. You are the mayor of N. O.

When do you declare an emergency? Do you order an evacuation early and risk emptying the city for nothing? Do you wait for more clarity in the forecast?
Exactly when do you have to make a decision?

If you call Amtrak, where do the trains come from? How long will it take for Amtrak to gather its trains and personnel and move them to the Gulf Coast? How many trains could be scrounged up on short notice? Do you run your trains to destination and then to N. O., or do you kick your passengers out at the nearest station and turn the trains south?

Does every freight train in the southeast go in the hole to let Amtrak through? Does N. O. have the yard capacity to handle the incoming trains or do you have to evacuate the freight before you can move the people? How about service for the incoming trains?

And, leaving New Orleans where do they all go? Do they all run up the Illinois Central to some northern waypoint? Or do they fan out on different routes? If Amtrak can sucessfully save several thousand people from another disaster, does that change the public's view of the value of the rail passenger system? Does it change Congress?

These are just a few of the questions that come to mind. Has anyone in authority given this any thought or is this just a half-baked scheme designed to make it look like preparation when really they hope it won't be needed?

And what do you think? Could this be done? Are there answers for my questions or are just more questions? What would it take to make it work?

Tim

[PBenham]

Money. Something Amtrak wastes in vast quantities!

[jchnhtfd]

Disregarding PBenham's comment completely.

In the previous event, at least regarding the two organisations with which I am reasonably familiar in terms of operations and Amtrak, Amtrak was prepared to bring equipment in on reasonably short notice, as were several commuter agencies; the two organisations with which I am familiar had been contacted and were prepared to expedite these deadhead moves (and no, it would not have been necessary to put every other train in the hole; it's just a matter of priority of moves).

The amount of equipment which could have been gathered depends completely on the available time, obviously. As far as I am aware, there were no suggestions of terminating trains en-route, if for no other reason than actually turning many trains around to head the other way while en-route would have been difficult.

Tim's question on available capacity in New Orleans is highly relevant: there isn't much. Therefore, it would be necessary to stage equipment in, load it, and get it back out. Again, therefore, the available time critically determines how much equipment is needed and, more important, how many folks can be transported and to where (not that far is required). I haven't seen official figures on the latter. However, a very quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that something on the order of 12,000 folks per hour could be lifted if you could get the cars to do it, and I see no particular reason why you couldn't get the cars. That figure pretty much assumes using the CN (ex-IC) main north, and the BNSF lines west; although I do not know for a fact, I would assume that NS, CSX, and UP would play along too, which would increase the lift.

I can assure you that the operating people in authority on the rail end have given thought to the possibility (and other emergency evacuation possiblities elsewhere, I might add). Whether the public agencies involved have is another question altogether -- and since they both call the shots and cover the operating expenses, that is where you will have to look for further answers.

And as to whether an operation of this sort would change public or Congressional perceptions? Who knows -- but, honestly, I doubt it.

[Tharmeni]

Re. deploying Amtrak folks and trains....
Let's remember that it took Amtrak 7 hours to deploy a crew to take over the Hoosier State last Sunday night....
A hurricane can move 210 miles closer in that amount of time.

[Poppa_Zit]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Tharmeni

Re. deploying Amtrak folks and trains....
Let's remember that it took Amtrak 7 hours to deploy a crew to take over the Hoosier State last Sunday night....
A hurricane can move 210 miles closer in that amount of time.

I'd think they'd pull the trigger on evacuating people long before one got 7 hours away. Those that will leave, as we found out in New Orleans.

And most hurricanes c-r-a-w-l quite a lot slower than the 30 mph you indicate. Average speed is more like 12-15 mph, according to NOAA.

[rrandb]

The trick would be the logistics of trying to move equipment in to an area while every railroad there is trying to move their equipment and personel out. At 12,000 per hour you would need to load 1000 people per train X 12 trains at one train every 5 minutes. To sustain that for 12 hours you need 144 trainsets. All traffic must be flowing out to achive this taffic level so no trains could return.[2c] As always ENJOY

[solzrules]

QUOTE: Originally posted by tpatrick

New Orleans has a plan. Next time a hurricane hits, Amtrak will come to the rescue. Never mind that last year an Amtrak train was available and not used. That's a lesson learned, I guess. So let's consider this scenario:

It is August 2006 and a large hurricane has entered the Gulf of Mexico. It is a Category Two storm, but the forecast is for strengthening, perhaps to C-4. Its exact route is unknown, but it is expected to make landfall somewhere between Cameron LA and Mobile AL. What is known is that wherever it goes, it is going to be there in 3 1/2 to 4 days. Your name is Nagin. You are the mayor of N. O.

When do you declare an emergency? Do you order an evacuation early and risk emptying the city for nothing? Do you wait for more clarity in the forecast?
Exactly when do you have to make a decision?

If you call Amtrak, where do the trains come from? How long will it take for Amtrak to gather its trains and personnel and move them to the Gulf Coast? How many trains could be scrounged up on short notice? Do you run your trains to destination and then to N. O., or do you kick your passengers out at the nearest station and turn the trains south?

Does every freight train in the southeast go in the hole to let Amtrak through? Does N. O. have the yard capacity to handle the incoming trains or do you have to evacuate the freight before you can move the people? How about service for the incoming trains?

And, leaving New Orleans where do they all go? Do they all run up the Illinois Central to some northern waypoint? Or do they fan out on different routes? If Amtrak can sucessfully save several thousand people from another disaster, does that change the public's view of the value of the rail passenger system? Does it change Congress?

These are just a few of the questions that come to mind. Has anyone in authority given this any thought or is this just a half-baked scheme designed to make it look like preparation when really they hope it won't be needed?

And what do you think? Could this be done? Are there answers for my questions or are just more questions? What would it take to make it work?

Tim

Oh! Oh! Oh! Let me try!

First I would request that the citizens of New Orleans evacuate the city 3 days prior to expected landfall. I would then demand that all citizens leave. Then I would send the cops house to house asking people to leave, this time maybe two days prior. Then, when it became apparent then everyone who WANTED to leave had already left, I would take the remainder of the poeple and put them in the New Orleans Superdome.

When it becomes apparent that there are a lot of people who failed to heed the warnings by the government, I would then reject any help from Amtrak for unexplained reasons. Later I will blame the federal government for this.

When I am shown pictures of parking lots full of buses I will say that there where no drivers (even though in a time of crisis I think a safe driver could step up and drive a bus). I will also demand that Greyhound send buses with air-conditioning. We don't do buses without air conditioning down here. Later I will blame this on the federal government.

When the levees break I will blame this on the federal government, even though they have been giving New Orleans money to maintain the levees and, well, it seems that money was better spent in casino interests.

And I will say New Orleans should remain a chocolate city. When people don't like that comment maybe I could find a way to blame that on the federal governemnt, too.

It's great to be the king.

[jchnhtfd]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rrandb

The trick would be the logistics of trying to move equipment in to an area while every railroad there is trying to move their equipment and personel out. At 12,000 per hour you would need to load 1000 people per train X 12 trains at one train every 5 minutes. To sustain that for 12 hours you need 144 trainsets. All traffic must be flowing out to achive this taffic level so no trains could return.[2c] As always ENJOY

You're making the easy error of assuming only one line is available. There were an absolute minimum of 4 offered that I know of , and there are at least 4 more. I was assuming only the 4 I know of; two outbound, two inbound, push-pull service. I was assuming 1,000 people per train, however, as you state. This is quite common in the major metropolitan areas. I was also assuming 10 minute headway, also quite common in metro areas (if you don't believe me, hang around 125th St New York on any weekday, or better yet, Jamaica on Long Island) and entirely possible on the 4 tracks I know of.

If you want to move a lot of people -- or anything else, for that matter -- from point x to point y in a hurry, the railroads can do it.

[rrandb]

I still think it is ambitious to assume that railroads that do not even have passenger trains operating on them now could atain the same performance as a metropolitian comuter railroad. Throw in a class five huricane bearing down on there systems and it could get real exciting real fast. This plan will require some serious simulations and to work smoothly at least some sort of drill. I am not saying it can not be done by the railroads. But it will require alot of work and co-ordinated efforts by all parties involved to pull it off. [2c] As always ENJOY

[Tharmeni]

PoppaZit - Charley hit land 30 miles south of my house moving at an estimated 27 mph on August 13, 2004.
So make no mistake -- they can move at 30 mph. Many stall for days, bringing down NOAA's "average speed".

[Poppa_Zit]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Tharmeni

PoppaZit - Charley hit land 30 miles south of my house moving at an estimated 27 mph on August 13, 2004.
So make no mistake -- they can move at 30 mph. Many stall for days, bringing down NOAA's "average speed".

Righto. That's kinda what I said.

[rrandb]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Poppa_Zit

QUOTE: Originally posted by Tharmeni

PoppaZit - Charley hit land 30 miles south of my house moving at an estimated 27 mph on August 13, 2004.
So make no mistake -- they can move at 30 mph. Many stall for days, bringing down NOAA's "average speed".

Righto. That's kinda what I said.

My family has lived on the east coast of Florida since 1935. Even the weather service is only willing to make projections not predictions. The one thing you can predict about hurricanes is they are unpredictable. In the time between when most people saw the 5 o'clock news and when Andrew hit before daybreak it went from a Catagory 3 to a killer 5. While not the avearge they can move above 30 MPH. [2c] As always ENJOY

[Tharmeni]

Yes, rrandb, and we're in that lovely season yet again, huh?

[daveklepper]

Using Amtrak is as easy as pie. Amtrak can provide about 2000 seats (two sixteen car trains) without disaster to its regular schedules and those seats and births should be reserved for the elderly and handicapped and midly ill that don't require ambulances. The able bodied would be supplied with evacuation buses, and if they don't like it they can try to drive or use airplane tickets. And far better to evacuate for "no good reason" than to court disaster.

I came up with an overall plan for the evacuation of NYC (and Long Island). This is far more complicated. Anyone wishing it can ask for it at my email address [e-mail]

[Mookie]

I can't help but have the feeling way in the back of my mind that reality will be a lot of politicians standing around arguing about which plan they should use and who should implement it and ............sploosh!

[tdmidget]

So jchnhtfd, since you have this thought out so carefully, exactly what would those "BNSF lines West" be?

[tpatrick]

Your comments are very enlightening and well reasoned. But as for reality, I think Mookie has hit the nail on the head.

As we consider New Orleans, we may be looking the wrong way. Accu-Weather meteorologist Joe ***i says spring 2006 has been a replay of 1954. Same patterns of rainfall and areas of heat and cold. Same temperatures on land and at sea. Even the timing of pattern changes mirrors 1954.

Hurricane season of 1954 featured two Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, both veering into Texas. Three other hurricanes struck the east coast. Two hit New England and the third was the enormous Hazel, killer of 1069 victims including 100 in Canada. New York City, although 200 miles east of the storm's center, recorded a wind gust of 113 mph. That's the biggest wind ever to strike the city. When Hazel made landfall in North Carolina she had winds of 150 mph and a forward speed of 30 mph. She was still a cat 2 over Rochester, NY and crossing Lake Ontario. I remember that storm because I lived just west of Hazel's center. I still live in that same village.

So if history is any guide, it is the east coast that should prepare for the worst. And the very worst would for a Hazel-like storm to hit NYC. Dave Klepper, dust off and update your evac plans. They might be needed.

BTW, the first seven letters of meteorologist Joe's last name spell the word for Illigitimate Child. I guess the censor didn't like that.

[jchnhtfd]

QUOTE: Originally posted by tdmidget

So jchnhtfd, since you have this thought out so carefully, exactly what would those "BNSF lines West" be?

Oh dear. Let's check the maps. BNSF to Lafayette (Amtrak). Union Pacific to Baton Rouge. CN ditto. KCS ditto. CN towards Hammond (Amtrak). NS towards Slidell (Amtrak). CSX towards Mobile (Amtrak). The lines labelled (Amtrak) have passenger service. The others are Class 1s. That's seven available lines.

Just because the politicos can't get their act together doesn't mean that the railroads can't either. They can, and given the chance, they would.

[rrandb]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Mookie

I can't help but have the feeling way in the back of my mind that reality will be a lot of politicians standing around arguing about which plan they should use and who should implement it and ............sploosh!

Oh, you saw the last hurricane that hit NO? [?] As always ENJOY

[Poppa_Zit]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Mookie

I can't help but have the feeling way in the back of my mind that reality will be a lot of politicians standing around arguing about which plan they should use and who should implement it and ............sploosh!

I agree, I think you nailed it. Politicians, who never say what they really mean, will elbow each other to death trying to get face time in front of the TV cameras as plans are being considered and everyone is paying rapt attention. Their first priority is to look good, mouth great sound-bites provided to them by their handlers, and get re-elected. They don't worry so much about getting the job done as they worry about who will get the credit. Then, and only then, do they consider the fate of the constituents.

What happened in New Orleans will only make future similar scenarios ever worse, because we saw via that fiasco that elected officials can screw things up royally, point fingers at the federal government, play the race card (i.e. Ray Nagin's controversial "Chocolate City" comment) and come out smelling like a rose by being re-elected.

Over the years, having worked in news reporting, I have come to the conclusion that one of the key skills of a successful politician is the ability to delegate blame.

[rrandb]

Deligate blame. Don't you mean duck, dodge, dance around or anything but take the blame. The sign on Harry Trumans desk said it all, " THE BUCK STOPS HERE ". Rest in peace Harry. We could use more like him. [2c]