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Ed, There are exceptions to every rule, nothing is completely black and white. There's a difference between imports from Canada or Mexico, which also can be relegated to rail captivity, and imports from overseas, wherein importers have a wide choice of ocean carriers, U.S. ports, and subsequent rail connections to those ports. There are also consumption markets in the U.S. that are captive as well, so imports into those markets can be construed as captive imports if it fits your POV. And yes, when the collective rail industry has not kept up with capacity demands, the aggregate demand for intermodal transportation services can exceed aggregate supply of transportation options which will result in increased pricing power for carriers of imports. That is a temporary situation in theory as elasticity brings supply and demand back into equalibrium, akin to the longshoremen strike or the hurricane shutdowns of Gulf Ports, which also changed the demand/supply dynamic for imports on a temporary basis. Of course, the overseas manufacturer does not bear the brunt of those smaller exceptions, rather it is the consumers in those areas that pay the added costs. With growing markets elsewhere in the world, those overseas manufacturers won't sweat U.S. supply constraints. Contrast that with the captive U.S. manufacturer, who is captive right from the get-go, no matter what market is being sold to. The whole point of this exercise is to show that those manufacturers that locate overseas will free themselves from U.S. rail captivity. Those producers who cannot physically relocate their land sites (such as Montana farmers) do not have that option and will eventually close their operations unless rate relief or federal aid is provided. If it's the latter, then that aid becomes an indirect subsidy to the railroads. It becomes a big negative for the U.S. economy no matter what happens, outside of actual rate relief via access to competitive rail carriers for all U.S. rail shippers. http://www.railcure.org
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