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Montreal, Maine, and Atlantic--will it survive?

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[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by racehorse Limitedclear, Do you have any specific information, or is this just conjecture based on your view from wherever you are located? The Maine economy is not in bad shape. In fact, we have weathered the downturn better than most states. The mills are getting healthier. There is an expansion in Jay (on Guilford) and the mill in Millinocket (on MM&A) appears ready to get going--meetings with the unions are schedule for next month. Reports are that MM&A has regained some of the traffic lost to trucks, who handle 90%(!) of Maine tonnage--far more than any state other than Hawaii. There is business to acquire. To me, the key question is how to support the former CP across Maine between St. John and Montreal. Can bridge traffic be built? How? [/quote] The answer to your question is, yes. I have a lot of specifics, but sorry, I can't share them in a public forum for various reasons. And, no, it isn't just conjecture. The following is my own opinion based upon public information. As to bridge traffic, there won't be much anytime soon. Based upon the secondhand information I have the former bridge traffic to St. John is gone as a result of the Irving's contract with CN and the sale of Kent Lines to Tropical Shipping Lines. In addition, there is the well publicized issues in the BAR bankruptcy over the paper traffic from Madawaska (Fraser Paper) and the Bankruptcy of Great Northern Paper. The partial reactivation of Millinocket won't fix all of that. MM&A has lost a LOT of the former BAR traffic (through no real fault of it's own) as a result of lingering fallout from the prior owners. Many of the major paper companies (IP, GP, Weyerhauser, etc) are hard at work consolidating and fine tuning their operations after the mergers of the last five years. Older mills are falling by the wayside. Much of the timber reserves in the immediate vicinity of Millinocket have been sold to the Irving interests making trucking from longer distances a serious cost for MIllinocket and making it's long term survival a continued question. All things considered, I think the MM&A has a bit more track than traffic and I see changes coming. I would also suggest you take a look at the BAR/MM&A thread at www.Railroad.net for additional insight. LC
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