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The Merger Paradigm
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dubya, remember that currently UP and BNSF can exchange with either NS or CSX, and so on. If one of the two major Western lines merges with one of the two major Eastern lines, each of the lines will lose half of its interchange partners for cross country traffic. Remember, there are places that UP serves without competition from BNSF, places BNSF serves without competition from UP, and on the other coast there are places served by NS that are not served by CSX, and vis versa. If I'm a manager for any of these railroads, I don't want to potentially lose half my customers on the opposite coast, so I'd be very tepid about going after a coast to coast merger. <br /> <br />Also, you can't compare the banking analogy with the regional railroads, since most of the latter are themselves captive to their spin off originator, whereas regional banks can operate independently. That's why Gabe's observation is so astute, e.g. you can't apply the Greenspan market paradigm to the railroad industry.
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