Would SP survive UP+ATSF ?

[nanaimo73]

During the late 1970s Southern Pacific was trying to merge with the Seaboard System, and the Chessie System as well. The ATSF had been talking off and on with Missouri Pacific, and Burlington Northern was after the St. Louis-San Fransisco. Union Pacific was sitting on the sidelines, resting after their failed bid to acquire the Rock Island.
Union Pacific realized they had to move, or risk being left behind. They set their eyes on the Gulf Coast chemical traffic, either by merging with Southern Pacific or Missouri Pacific. Missouri Pacific was chosen, resulting in Union Pacific going after Western Pacific as well.
Burlington Northern merged SLSF on Nov. 21, 1980 and the Union Pacific merged with MP and WP on Dec. 22, 1982.
These mergers pushed Southern Pacific and the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe together. The Interstate Commerce Commission rejected this merger on July 24, 1986 and overruled an appeal on June 30, 1987. SPSF became known as "Shouldn't Paint So Fast" for the 400 Kodachromes.
SPSF was ordered to sell one of their two railroads, and decided to sell the Southern Pacific. A bidding war occured between the Denver and Rio Grande Western and Kansas City Southern. On August 9, 1988 the D&RGW took over SP and adopted SP's name. The Santa Fe Pacific Company only sold the railroad, and kept SP's prized non-rail assets. Three days later the Union Pacific took over the Missouri-Kansas-Texas.
Things were quiet for a couple of years until BN announced it was buying ATSF for $2.5 billion in stock on June 30, 1994. On Oct.9, 1994 the Union Pacific crashed the party with an offer of $3.2 billion worth of UP stock. BN matched this offer on Oct.27, 1994, which they said was their final offer. UP came back with an offer of $3.8 billion on Oct.30, 1994. BN raised their offer to $4 billion of stock. Union Pacific could have gone higher, but they lost a court case to stop an ATSF (SFP) poison-pill on Jan.30, 1995. UP gave up and went right after Southern Pacific, while they also completed their takeover of the C&NW.
The BNSF merger was approved on August 23, 1995 and took place on Dec.31. UP acquired contol of SP on Aug.11, 1996.
Now here is my question. What would have happened to the Southern Pacific if Union Pacific had won the war for ATSF 10 years ago? SP would have gotten some trackage rights, or some track, from UP+ATSF, but this was not a healthy railroad. I do not think it was necessary for BN to acquire SP, as they would have gotten interchange without risking their stock. I do not think the eastern big three (CSX, NS, Conrail) would have gone after the weakest of the western big three and lost interchange with the other two. Perhaps KCS would have tried again. I think the SP would have gone under and other railroads would have bought pieces, the same process that the Rock Island went through in 1980.
While UP was merging SP, Conrail was trying to buy the Cotton Belt. CR knew NS was after them, and they wanted to expand to survive. The Cotton Belt only ran to Corsicanna, TX. and Shreveport LA , so addition SP track would have been needed to reach Houston and the Chemical plants.
I think NS would have liked the ex Rock Island line from Kansas City. The former Wabash Detroit to KC line extended to El Paso looks pretty good.
Opinions wanted !

[Anonymous]

Southern Pacific sought merger with Seaboard Coast Line, not Seaboard System, and was rebuffed by SCL. Union Pacific just bided its time until SP could be bought at a decent price, and then swooped in for the kill.

I think the SP would have gone the way of the Rock Island regardless of who got the Santa Fe. SP was feeling the pressure from its larger and more powerful rivals, and given the railroad's financial status when UP acquired it, I doubt the SP would have survived into 2005. You might want to check out Mark Hemphill's article on the SP in the Trains issue about seventies-era railroading. (Sorry, I don't remember which month the issue was published.)

[BN U30C]

QUOTE: Originally posted by nanaimo73


The BNSF merger was approved on August 23, 1995 and took place on Dec.31.

I thought the merger took place on Sept. 22, 1995. The sixth paragragh on this link says Sept 1995, http://www.bnsf.com/employees/communications/bnsf_today/2005/05/2005-05-17-a.html

Before BNSF changed their website, It said Sept. 22, 1995. That's the only place I got the date of the merger.

[UPTRAIN]

That....and I also thought the merger of UP-SP was on September 11, 1996, seems like I read that in INFO one time...one reason it sticks out is...that certain date.

[ericsp]

According to Mark Hemphill's article about the downfall of SP in the March 2005 issue of Trains about the only thing that would have saved SP was to merge with SCL in the 1960s. I have not done enough research to offer speculation on "what ifs".

[nanaimo73]

BN U30C-The ICC approved the merger on Aug. 23. Trains magazine says (page 78, Jan 99) ;

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. created on September 22, 1995, when BN bought AT&SF's corporate parent. Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe Railway merged into Burlington Northern Railroad on December 31, 1996, and BN renamed Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railway.

Your Sept 22 is fine by me.

UP Train-"UP acquired control of SP on August 11, 1996" is what I got from page 49 of the Feb. 1999 Trains. I did not look up the merger date so I am fine with Sept 11.

I was hoping to get some speculation about who wanted what pieces of the SP or if KCS would have still wanted it.
I am also wondering if anyone is going to ask about "Shouldn't Paint So Fast" or what the 400 Kodachromes were. Everyone on the forum knows this ?
By the way, when the Rock Island shut down, the system was 7,086 miles by my count. 836 miles of this was trackage rights, leaving 6,250 miles. Since the shutdown, 4,834 miles have operated at one time or another, or over 77%. That is not to bad.