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<p>[quote user="Bucyrus"]</p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva;font-size:small;">Sam1,</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva;font-size:small;">I can see how the probable benefit could be predicted by statistical models that project the future based on the past. But I would say that it would be far more difficult to predict the cost. </span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva;font-size:small;">Predicting the cost would be largely a matter of speculation and luck. The principle of a mandate and deadline injects a wildcard into the normal free market economics. The fact that it has already been established and accepted that the cost will exceed the benefit is evidence of that wildcard. </span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva;font-size:small;">But perhaps another way of looking at the unpredictability of cost is that it naturally results from the undefined endpoint of the objective and scope of the project. </span>[/quote]</p> <p>Predicting cost and benefits, especially for more than a year or two, is dicey. Most of the corporate planners and regulators that I worked with acknowledged that coming up with an accurate prediction for costs and benefits for more than a year or two is more about playing to the audience than recognizing the constraints associated with accounting and finance predictions. </p>
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