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Sam1, I can see how the probable benefit could be predicted by statistical models that project the future based on the past.  But I would say that it would be far more difficult to predict the cost.  Predicting the cost would be largely a matter of speculation and luck.  The principle of a mandate and deadline injects a wildcard into the normal free market economics.  The fact that it has already been established and accepted that the cost will exceed the benefit is evidence of that wildcard.  But perhaps another way of looking at the unpredictability of cost is that it naturally results from the undefined endpoint of the objective and scope of the project.
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