Edit post

Edit your reply below.

Post Body
Enter your post below.
[quote user="Bucyrus"] [quote user="oltmannd"] It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs. [/quote] How does one predict what the benefit will be without knowing the cost of the accidents that would have occurred without PTC? How does one predict what the cost will be when the R&D has not been entirely completed? Why is it a statutory requirement if the cost exceeds the benefit? What is the measured quantification of the benefit? [/quote] Predicting costs and benefits is doable, but it is important to understand the constraints. This is especially true for predictions going out more than a couple of years. The key to predicting costs and benefits is to begin with an appropriate database. Another key is to use the appropriate statistical modeling techniques.  If the database is shallow and/or the statistical techniques are inappropriate, the results will be wrong.  Every statistical technique (method) has inherent weaknesses.  If the researches don't understand them, they are likely to generate the wrong outcome. Each year for grins I read the President's (OMB) proposed federal budget.  I read all of the summary tables, as well as the support schedules for transportation, at a minimum, and a significant portion of the narrative.. I also read the Social Security and Medicare Trustee's annual reports. These documents contain projections for 10 years or more.  From one year to another the projections, especially those for more than five years, can swing as much as 20 per cent. And that is just over one year. When someone predicts the costs and benefits of a proposed project as a number, it would only be accurate coincidentally.  An honest researcher projects a range of numbers, together with the parameters baked into his or her statistical model.   Bottom line?  View all statistical projections (costs and benefits) with a skeptical eye.
Tags (Optional)
Tags are keywords that get attached to your post. They are used to categorize your submission and make it easier to search for. To add tags to your post type a tag into the box below and click the "Add Tag" button.
Add Tag